A 13% POT
 

METRO
1100m to 1800m
Handicap
Weight increase of > 0.5 kg
Days between runs 7 to 21
Runs since spell 2 to 4
SP $4 to $20
Career Sts 10 to 20
No sts at the distance
Last start placing 4th to 24th

POT of 13%

LG, let's not engage YKW 'coz all that happens is potentially good threads get clogged up or even closed down. Waddyareckon ?? I'm in !!

All Agreed and so shall it be, Barny...
A good opportunity to master uncertainty!

Cheers LG

lol ;)

Whoops ..... Forgot one bit of important info from my original post

Selections 599
Winners 84




And worthwhile noting that excluding No sts at the distance (ie ZERO sts at the distance) the result is a LOT of 14%, so that's a fair turnaround really !?

What I find to be most helpful when coming across a profitable set of conditions is to plot the returns over time - by that I mean 13% return is great but not if, for example, it all occurred in one month of a 12 month cycle.

All the rules appear sensible & the starts at distance/sp requirements help to inject value, nice one if it is consistent.

Couldn't agree more norisk, but it's more work than I care to do. It shows a 10% profit taking into account the max div, so that's something. I'll look at Vic and NSW and get back to you, coz my testing shows that if they're both in profit then it's a reliable system. I posted on here under Un-Flaming-Believable a huge difference between Vic and NSW, one showed a good POT the other a LOT, and I'm no nearer to finding out why. My posts of results for systems are to demonstrate that the inclusion of one unusual or unpopular filter can have a huge upside in the POT.

Maybe my posts on POT's are useful, maybe they're not ..... but I'll keep whacking a few up, and will put the proviso in from now on, that further testing needs to be done over each individual interval during the whole period, and testing also needs to be done in each individual state. I certainly don't want to mislead those who are new to this caper, and that's why I've been reluctant to post systems in the past.

Also there's quite a few systems on here claiming decent POT's, esp years ago, that under my testing show a LOT !! So it really is Caveat Emptor, 'cept you aint paying nothin', but I don't want to mislead the newbies.

Strewth ... Vic 27% POT, NSW 37% POT, QLD 22% POT, SA and WA disasters.

The challenge is to understand why and I ain't got the time nor the motivation to test and test and test, but if you get the grey matter working you could come up with a logical explanation as to why SA and WA are a disaster.

I enjoy your posts such as this one. A mentor of mine who lived a very good life on the punt used to say - NEVER say that a horse can't run a particular distance if it hasn't tried it.

Have you considered the average blood count of the winners and the average centripetal force.

You need a question mark at the end there Vortech ..... sigh

I am actually taking those two factors into account in my next system, but my third filter is a beaut and it invloves whether a horse has taken a dump in the mounting yard prior to the race !! I dont know whether to include said dump as "weight" or "volume" at this point in time. A decent dump would be 5 kgs ..... How do the weight experts on here take that into acccount ?? lol ;)

Do you mean "involves" instead of "invloves"

How can we test this theory of weight.
What has a better profit

A. Horses with TABs 1-6 with 54.5 kg or less or
B. Horses 55kg plus with Tabs 7+

What do you think

Test A: (16.7% LOT)
Test B: (29.1% LOT)

Good lord,
I see you with the sampling shovel and gloves now... going about the business.
Anything to measure and map uncetainty? Don't forget the goggles, son.

Nothing further from me here, just getting me coat.

LG

Barny can you add your special touch to the following?


Venue:SMAsma
Age of Horse: 3 - 12
Barrier Position: 1 - 11
TAB Number: 1 - 6
Top Weight
Days to LastStart: 5 - 14
Last Start FinishPos: 4 - 8
Last StartSP: 0.0 - 50.0

Metro, Country or combined ?

Combined Regional and Metro

Good results over the last couple of years but still concerned long-term

BTW, on the subject of a horse taking a dump in the mounting yard. The poop would have to weigh at least 5 kgs, maybe 8 kgs (it would be wet), so this would surely have a positive effect on the animal. I read a post recently where it said that Gai Waterhouse takes the body weight of her horses seriously, and that she has two sets of scales nearby all the time. OK, so the horse takes a dump. Think about an athlete about to run 800m and is "clogged up", for want of a better phrase, compared to a similar athlete who has just had a "cleansing". The cleansed athlete would surely run better ..... So a horse who's just taken a dump would surely be improved by that event.

I'm wondering where this fits with the weights afficionados on here, or is this just one of those impoderables that we simply cannot quantify ..... except it WILL have a positive effect on the horse.

How can it be TAB 1 to 6 and yet be topweight Vortech ??

Basically WFA races etc. can have 8 to 9.

I don't think I can help you Vortech, sorry.

5 kgs for a dump might be a bit too much. From what I have seen the dumps that most of them do are verging on being scoured.

I thought it was a certain weight range that was the ideal, not a specific weight. Could be mistaken though.

I could do it ..... WFA etc - rounded to nearest 1% - SA LOT 37%, VIC LOT 20%, NSW LOT 23%