Ratings - True to Form
 

Would the Ratings followers please explain why NONE of the Top Rated horses won at MV yesterday? I very rarely look at how ratings are going, but decided to for yesterday's races. An untrained monkey could do better, and to think some people take ratings seriously Ho-Diddly-Ho !!!!!

R1 - 7
R2 - LAST
R3 - 2
R4 - 4
R5 - 2 @ $1.30
R6 - 6
R7 - 2
R8 - 2, 3 & 5 (3 were Top Rated)
R9 - 3

Just had a look at Rosehill.

It get's worse !!

There were 13, yes 13 horses rated @ 100. I guess the Ratings people were so excited that they thought there would be a few dead heats, the odd triple deadheat and so on.

13 Top Rated horses at Rosehill and guess how many saluted ????

N-O-N-E, Diddly Squat, Zero, ZIP, Calbashooka !!!!!!!!!!

Gimme a Break

Hi Barny,

Yesterday was certainly not a good day for the 100 pointers with none saluting in Melb or Syd and only one greeting the judge in Bris & Adel. That's 40 bets for 2 winners ($2.60 & $3.80 at BOB) - Very ugly!

As the say in the classics "one swallow does not make a summer".

Since 7th July I have been able to "etch" out a 80% POT by having 5 selection rules.

Yesterday I only ended up with one qualifier which ran unplaced. Currently my strike rate is 29.4% over the 4 states, all of which are showing profits.

This is only one of the methods I run and October has not been kind and has shown a minor loss. A sign of more chances in races as better class horses are plentiful?

It will be interesting to see where this method takes me over the next few months.

Now that's impressive, well done ! ;)

Depends on WHO rated them.?

UNITAB is NOT the only Rating service in Australia.

I would have thought that they'd all go from a similar blue print.

OK, darkydog2002, Melbourne and Sydney, how did your Rating Service go yesterday ?? Your bet of the day ran last, so I'm assuming that was Top Rated.

Only rated the Cox Plate (On top and won).
See "Sands " thread.

Not only that but the
Quin $34
Ex $73.90
Trifecta $262.40

Cheers.

Oh.And what bet of the day was that since I didnt post one.

Where's the "sands" thread darkydog2002 ? I certainly don't doubt you at all, it's just that I may learn something seeings how you are such a strong advocate for ratings. I've taken to reading other threads on here recently, and one inparticular with garyf was most insightful regarding "d" and "c" on the formguide. A hobby horse of mine for quite a while now. Going to get some fish and chips now and sit on the banks of the Mighty (cold) Murray and contemplate life itself !!! ;)

See - 27 October Cox Plate GP 1

OOPS.Sorry Barny but the thread was started by "Myhatmycoat"

I have been using ratings for around 25 years. If during that time I backed my top rated horse only, I would have been broke years ago.

From my point of view I use ratings to sort out the main chances in the race, and if I consider it a betting race then the market will dictate if I bet or not.

It is extremely difficult to profit long term from backing only 1 horse per race, unless you have a lot of patience.

Uni/Tatts Ratings always have been limited in their accuracy & usefulness imho

Ah Domenic.
A sane punter at last.
Thank you.
Cheers
darky

My mind is not a closed shop, I hope not anyway. But to have a public Ratings System throw up (** you pick the word from the list below **) winners at all in Sydney and Melbourne, during the Spring Carnival, where there's a wealth of information on the competing horses ..... We'll I'd sack the Ratings Person for their "fatuous" and unprofessional efforts. To the best of my knowledge, the word fatuous hasn't been used on this forum b4 !!!

There's no info there darkydog2002, just your tips. What good is that to man or beast ?! If I'm to be lured to the dark side, then I need some information and a breakdown of results, the hows whys and whats of the Rating System. Which one do you recommend Darkydog2002 ?? Genuinely interested here ..... ;)

darkydog2002, The Herald Sun tipsters did just the same. Three picked Ocean Park to win, one had the Q, one had the exacta, and one had the Tri ..... there you go.

Hi Barny,
2 of the best are

racing service.com.au (Mick Fagin) allows you a free trial.

lucky88.com.au
(free)

Both give excellent summaries of their bets prior to the race.

Hope thats what your after.

In my case I review whats on offer with all of them (not just with these 2) and then make a personal judgement as to what I eventually go with.

In my opinion its one own judgement of whats on offer that will make or break one as a bettor.

Cheers.

Thanks heaps darkydog2002, I'll have a good look at these and go in with an open mind, which is not being handed everything on a plate ..... as you've alluded to.

This is statement of the month!! Well Done

domenic posted .....

I have been using ratings for around 25 years. If during that time I backed my top rated horse only, I would have been broke years ago. That's confirmation that ratings cannot pick winners at such odds that allow you to win. Exactly what I've been saying for as long as ..... and I've given reasons why.

From my point of view I use ratings to sort out the main chances in the race, and if I consider it a betting race then the market will dictate if I bet or not. I really don't understand what you're saying here dominic. Are you suggesting that you only look at certain races to bet on, or are you saying that you have a minimum price with which you'll bet on ?

It is extremely difficult to profit long term from backing only 1 horse per race, unless you have a lot of patience. I've never understood the logic behind this theory. Can you elaborate please ?

And to Vortech, what exactly is it that makes this the statement of the month. There's no substance to it.

Barny,
Over 5 years plus my strike rate is around 27% at an average price of $4.50 for Saturday Metro. This is the only day I bet. The notion that if you use ratings you can't win is a nonsense.
I am selective with the races I bet on, and if I don't consider there is value I don't bet. Last Saturday I bet on 16 races (33 bets) across 5 states for 9 winners at an average of $4.57.
Regarding betting 1 horse per race, well each to their own, it simply does not suit my style of betting.
With regard to ratings in general I have never used any of the free ratings available so I cannot comment on their accuracy or otherwise. Using ratings requires a considerable amount of work but the reward is there.

Hi Domenic,
The other thing I feel should be pointed out Re free or paid for Ratings is that there for the SOLE purpose of pointing one in the right direction and not necessarily to garuntee a Daily,Weekly,Monthly or yearly profit.

I wish things were that simple.

Cheers
darky

domenic and darkydog2002, thanks for the responses. My input here is completely biased based on what I have previously said re; Ratings being overbet 'coz .... Before I make a complete idiot of myself I'll look into this and use darkydog2002's recommendation for Ratings service.

My perception about the sole reason for Ratings services, ie provide winners, looks to be off the mark ? I do find that wierd, but it's a wierd caper this gambling isn't it ?!

Barny, in my short time in the caper i've managed to get my own ratings together based on one of Shaun's spreadsheets using data from cyberhorse. I can't comment on how useful unitab's ratings are however in my testing i could've made a flat stakes profit betting my top rater in every race i've tested (both backtesting and forward testing) since 1 April 2012.

Also across that period on Good/Dead tracks a very high level of those winners were 100 raters on tatts. I can post the graph/details when i'm home on lunch break if you wish.

Ratings can be as good as the inputs you have at your disposal to put in to them, and I also think the calculations in which you use the detail can make quite a difference too. You also have to look at how many favourites lost on Saturday as well, typically tatts 100 raters will be 1st or 2nd favourite and so win quite regularly without making a POT due to being overbet. Quite a few of the winners on saturday (to my knowledge) weren't favourites and were paying $10+. Its not very often you'll find a 100 rater on tatts paying $10+.

Any info would be great evajb001. My selections on raceday only take a short while and I've bagged out ratings for long enough under the premise that "If everyone knows about them then they're overbet", so I like to either have some more ammo to bag them out, or find out that I'm wrong, or find out that they're a useful tool. Related to ratings, I do believe that you need to concentrate on one selection method (eg; Privateer and his Pareto method) and become an ************ in that area, otherwise you're all over the place. So I'll look at Ratings from the perspective that the followers use them as a guide.

ratings -- for comparison i have used skyform and racingzone ratings which are both free
http://skychannel.com.au/tab/form/index.php
http://www.racingzone.com.au/

parameters: startingbank $100 -- betting 1 unit on each selection where 1unit = $5.00

Seymour 30-10-12

==================================================
Top selection
(1) skyform final bank $113 won R8 #7 paid $8.6 (R1 and R3 excluded insufficient horses rated)
(2) racingzone final bank $116.50 won R6 #3 paid $9.30 (R1and R3 excluded insufficient horses rated)
==================================================
Top 4 selections
(1) skyform final bank $131.50 level stakes
(2) racingzone final bank $133 level stakes
==================================================
i don't know how these ratings perform long term but in each case backing more than 1 runner in a race produced a better result :)
also, i'm inclined to think that dutch betting would be the way to go however, not with market prices -- you would have to produce your own priceline!

good luck!

Or use one of the better Handicappers Price line.
i.e
r+s
Wizard online.

Cheers
darky

ok! -- i got you (i think) -- so for rank #1 you would adopt the rank #1 price from R&S -- clever!!

Hi Barny,

Swings and roundabouts with these Unitab 100 pointers after last weeks poor performance!

Today there were 34 selections (A,B,M & S) for 12 winners.

8 of these paid <$4 but the other 4 paid $12.00, $16.90, $26.00 & $31.00 - these prices are based on best tote or Top Fluccuation.

Win S/R = 20.9% with 132 winners from 632 bets. 26 winners were Odds on while 11 winners were >$10 on each Saturday since 7th July 2012.

This would have brought you slightly in to the black if you had backed all qualifiers from each of the 4 states.

I would have to say it was a helluva long time waiting to get on the playground though!

ixlatO,
Thats correct.
Cheers

Hey Barny.
Are these 2 the Smokys in the Melb Cup?
Green Moon
Mourayan.

Hope you were following Malcolms tips in the 4th @Goulburn.

STATS
 

FROM 2005 -6 IT WAS INTRESTING -PLACE WAS A BETTER RETURN - FROM MY SAVED BITS AND PIECES MAY BE OF USE

Ratings for 100
Selections : 24582
Win $ : 20998.6
Place $:21739.2

Ratings for 99
Selections : 8259
Win $ : 7291.7
Place $:7332.9

Hi Ianian,

From your figures the clear outcome is you can not just back every 100 or 99 point selection as they are clear losers.

You need to either dispense with some type of races, some days of betting, some type of beast or maybe the horses age or sex or some horses in particular price ranges.

For the latter I generally eliminate any horses priced <$3.30 and >=$10 in prepost markets. This improves S/R and POT% immensely.

Anyone else's thoughts?

I haven't got any stats on Ratings, but I do have 5 years worth of Herald Sun formguides so I'll have a butchers. I agree with your Pre-Post restrictions, this was one of Privateers best filters. I have nothing to back this up but in one of my systems, prizemoney went into profit at $29,999, continued to increase until $99,999 then petered out at $199,999. This was uncanny as it rose as if some perfect mathematical formula, then drifted down until it ran out of steam, Each increase in P'money met with an increase in POT, then each decrease in P'money after $99,999 met with a decrease in POT. It was gradual and consistent and this system had nothing to do with form, so it makes the P'money an even more reliable indicator for mine. So P'money from say $30k to $200k might be worth a look. I'd also look at the number of starts for each runner, and something like 10 to 20 starts will give you a horse that's still got improvement in it, and I'm assuming that the rest of the field will have had enough starts to be able to have whatever formula it is, applied as a Rating. Not much point having horses with very few starts next to their name. I'd only go with Metro.

Anything else, like introducing or deleting your own 'form' and you're **************ising the formula.

There you go, I've got opinions on subjects I know very little about ..... it's one of my more endearing qualities ;)

LG posted that the difference between a 100 Rated horse and a 95 Rated horse was the equivalent of one length ..... Is this correct ??

Hi Barny,

I also look at horses with limited starts (5-20) as I believe they have better chance of improvement than horses with more starts.

The prizemoney - is this average prizemoney or total prizemoney earned?

Horses that start 7 days or multiples there of seem to have a positive effect on POT% and the bank. Your thoughts?

Race Prizemoney Try Try Again, its' a race filter, nothing to do with the horse as I'm assuming horse Prizemoney would be part of the Ratings formula.

I don't really take too much notice of days between runs.