could someone please furnish me with some figure ie odds on favs win % and if at all possible dollar returns for same
thanks.... nevets

ODDS ON FAVOURITES METRO ONLY SINCE Jan 1st 2003.

selections 106
Winners 61
strike rate 57.55%
total dividends $102.10
profit -$3.90
profit on turnover -3.68%
average dividend $1.67

N.B. profit figures include a deadheat on 4th jan King's College at Moonee Valley was showing $1.60 on the tote but paid $.80c for the deadheat.

thanks for that cp

those figures illustrate what don scott used to say...over time you would lose the least amount of money backing odds on favourites without any other input and in fact if it wasn't for the tote's takeout you would actually make a profit.....

yesterdday at pinjarra kennedy was paying $1.90 for a win after being beaten 19.9 lengths last start.
i had it coming up 23 lengths off winning last start weight adjusted.
it ran last.
punters are very bold.

so shop around... I laid Kennedy at about 2.34 on Betfair yesterday. I remember a horse with the same name about 15 yrs ago in Adelaide... had much more talent!

my point exactly.
any price about a horse that you think cant win is a good price.
the level of optimism about a horse beaten 20.3 lengths is amazing.
i have tried horses like that at 33/1 but never at odds on.

Interesting point noel,

In fact if you were able to get better prices on BETFAIR or IASBET, you would also make a profit.
If you could eliminate just a few losers with filters, it would be a great little earner.

Just wondering, if the stats differ when using pre-post odds on? seems like a perfect place to start when betting to prices, i.e. say from using your chosen pre-post market, (in my case WA TAB-FORM) or say SMH or even a proven ratings service. Then only investing when a better price is on offer.
At worst, we know that about 60% are winners, and at worst we would break even?????

chrome prince, where do you get stats like that??? thanks

ODDS ON FAVOURITES METRO ONLY, ALL DAYS SINCE 1/3/99 to 31/5/03 (4yrs 2 months)

Selections: 783
Wins: 412
SR% = 52.8%
POT = -10.4% on turnover.

It's a fact that on average across all races, horses at the shorter end offer better value than longer priced horses. What I mean by value is that the shorter the average price of a group of runners, the narrower the gap between actual and 'should be' strike rate.

This is what's termed a favourite-longshot bias in the market and it exists in horse race markets worldwide.

Of course within any price group there will be individual horses that are poor value and others that are good value.

The other advantage of betting at the shorter end is that you have a higher strike rate and much less variance, which is extremely important from a betting and psychological standpoint.

Despite this the key is to onyl bet in situations where you think you have an advantage. If you can't state clearly why this is a profitable situation for you to bet in then you should keep your money in your pocket.