An Oldie but a good read .....
 

I'll have a go!
 

Hi Barny,

Here is my contribution to this. I will start my own stable and follow them, trying to win $10 for each horse. The rules to become a horse to follow are:-
- Age - 3-6
- First Up (Resuming at Metro Meeting)
- Win% - 26%+
- Place% - 50%+
- Trainer Rating (Racing and Sports) - 3+
- Must have won in the last 365 Days

I will follow each horse for five runs, if they win in any of their first 5 runs, they will be removed from the list. If they do not win, all money that horse owes me will be divided by 10, and added to the next 10 horses' target.

(Example - if you outlay $65 over 5 runs for a horse that does not win, the target for the next 10 Horses to Follow will be $16.50)

Horses 2 Follow

BR 5 no.1 Gran Torino (Tagret $10)
TR 4 no.5 Anelene (Target $10)

Cheers

Doc

Go get 'em Doc!

I wish you the best of luck!!

Whats UP doc?

Your bank hopefully! Best of luck with this - will be interesting to see if / when the good doc's stable play converts into a luverley juberley pay day!

LG

Very interested in this. Also got some idea's spinning in my head that i'll likely be posting about later today in regards to a new set of my ratings and also lay betting.

On a side note if anyone can answer, i noticed the doc mentioned trainer rating on R&S - does anyone know how to get the table with trainer and jockey ratings or the table with recent prize money to download into excel with a query. Its basically the most significant thing my ratings are missing and would fit perfectly with my spreadsheet if I could get it working. I've tried a number of different ways to get it to happen with no success. If anyone has an idea or knows how to get it done could you either reply in here asking for my email address or reply in my '75% ratings' thread.

Thanks :)

All sounds good except forget the staking part this will kill you in the end, you are better off using a percentage of bank for each set of selections.

As a new horse is added work out what percentage of the bank you will invest in this horse.

Shaun, you got any ideas in regards the R&S data?

Doesn't matter, with some fiddling today in excel i managed to be able to scrape the table I wanted, only to find out that you can't look at historical meetings on R&S anyway.

May still use it as i'm certain trainer/jockey makes a difference to ratings, just means i can't incorporate it into any backtesting.

Anyhow apologies for getting off topic, again if you wish to discuss further you can reply in my other thread Shaun as would appreciate any of your input/ideas.

Is this the page you are talking about. http://www.racingandsports.com.au/f...meetingid=27664

Well........

Gran Torino - $3.9 bet @ $3.6 (np)
Anelene - no bet (late scratching)

As long as the search party are successful in locating Gran Torino before its next start, it remains on the list as does Anelene.

In honor of the less than impressive start I will rename my horses to follow. They will now fall under the banner of Doc's Donkeys.

Cheers
Doc

Careful Doc, you may make an ass out of yourself. :D

Seriously though, good luck with it. :)

Doc's Donkeys - December 5th Update
 

Hall Of Fame
Nil

Hall of Shame
Nil

Current Horses
Gran Torino ($13.9)
Anelene ($10)

Gran Torino loves the AW track.

I forgot to mention must have had at least 10 Career Starts.

This is really good stuff doc. PPM used to show a profit with their horses to follow although darkydog2002 disputed their legitimacy. The HS used to have Spring Carnival "stable" but it very rarely did any good. I'm a huge fan of the "concept" of following a horse. I have one David Hayes' horses picked out for when it returns ..... Storm Shield.

Doc's Donkeys - Weekend Initial Contenders
 

Nice to hear that Barny. Was a little worried I had hijacked your post.

Below are the initial contenders for the weekend (just in case you want to launch an assault on Early Bird prices) :D

Art Thou Ready SR 5 no.1 (Fri)
Carmine King SR 7 no.4 (Fri)
Tariana MR 4 no.1
Signified BR 6 no.2
Racing Heart SR 6 no.14
Madam Nash SR 7 no.1
Number One Gun SR 8 no.10

I will post after final scratchings on Friday and Saturday.

Doc's Donkeys - Friday Night Dec 7
 

SR 5 no 1 - Art Thou Ready (Target $10) $2 Bet @ $6
SR 7 no 4 - Carmine King (Target $10) $2 Bet @ $6

Cheers

Doc

Please keep it going docdapunta, this will be a great lesson and done in real time. My money is on you showing a profit, but not until you're into starts 2, 3 and further becasue we need some ordinary form, increase in class, to increase the divs. I suspect early on you'll get winners but the divs will be disappointing.

doc's donkey's eh ??

Donkey walks into a bar and the barman says "Why the long face ??"

If that's the case, I'd love to hear suggestions for a staking plan we could use. With the plan of chasing a set amount per horse, larger dividends will just reduce the outlay. Plenty of time to discuss this as we come up with some results to look at.....

Cheers

Doc

I have no idea if this would work but what if you did loss sharing? For example you got 4 horses your initially following call them Apple, Banana, Lemon and Melon. Apple is the first to run at $4 odds so you have to bet $3.33 to get your $10 profit, unfortunately Apple loses so you loss share:

The profit required on your next bets for all horses would be:

Apple: $10.83
Banana: $10.83
Lemon: $10.83
Melon: $10.83

(The $0.83 is from $3.33 / 4)

Next to run is Banana, follow the same process and so on. Like i've said I have no idea if this is actually viable or would work but my logical thinking is that even if 1 horse just doesn't seem to perform at all and you don't get that win your chasing, then at least you've shared the losses across other horses that you'd hope eventually will lead to that win to offset the losses.

Has anyone trialed something similar to this previously? purely just an idea i've came up with sitting here at the moment.

evajb001, wow ! I don't ever recall thinking along those lines .... thank you !

I have read quite a lot about staking and a common theme seems to be, chasing loses, no matter how you do it, is a downhill ride to the poorhouse. Is there anyone who successfully runs a loss chase staking plan?

If you know your strike rate you can calculate your run of outs long term.

You can set up your bank and stake to a percentage of starting bank.

If a system has a strike rate higher than 50% I reduce the stake percentage. More chance winning than losing so bet higher.

In theory if you have a big enough bank any staking plan can work even losing at level stakes.

Your welcome Barney, like I said just an idea based on no evidence at all but logically to me it would seem your limiting losses while retaining the same level of profits as you would have had anyway.

i.e. In my example, if Banana was to win when its race was run, not only have you obtained the $10 profit you were aiming for anyway, but you've already recouped some of Apples losses.

docdapunta - I've read a lot that basically says the same thing, any chase system is bound for 'eventual' failure. However this depends a lot on the size of your bankroll and your unit size. For example a betting system may 'eventually' hit that run of losses that destroys your bankroll on a chase system but with extremely conservative staking that run of losses could be a il nino 1 in 100 years thing that wont happen while your betting the system.

I personally don't think chase systems are a great idea but believe they can be used profitably if the right system presents itself.

Yeah, and in theory if I miss 3 two footers in a row then I'm due to get the next one. BTW, I played off a handicap of four more than the lowest marker in Vic at that time, played off that mark for yonks and used wooden clubs off the tee and played at a time when hitting par 5's in two was reserved for the long hitters of the game. Your handicap of 1 is really good Vortech, that's a really mean feat, but the game of golf has been plundered by the improved balls, clubs, and 'that' putter. Adam Scott would need to win a major in the next couple of years, prior to 2016, otherwise it's goodnight for him.

Doc,
This might help.

The correct way for Target betting is

Exp Win % X Exp Win Dividend X .08

i.e 25 X $3.25 X 0.8 = 6.5 Max divisor

Minimum Divisor (in this example would be 3.25)

The Minimum Divisor is always the av price of your winners.

Reframe your divisors every 100 bets.

Thanks for the responses.

Now all we need to do is hope some of these horses do the right thing eventually. ;)

Think this discussion is heading in a really positive direction.

And doc, it might be a better use of your time to look at your selection method rather than chasing your losses. Chasing your losses is a Lazy Man's Modus Operandi for making a quid from thoroughbred racing.

darky, can you explain in more detail with possibly an example for me, maybe i've already got my mind on a cold beer and thats why i'm struggling to follow.

Cheers

I like them apples. That's a good use of your melon.

Is that enough fruity talk?

Seriously, that's a good suggestion.

Spreading the loss looks like an interesting idea, but i still don't like trying to make a set profit.

Using this type of selection process and following runners you are going to back your fair share of 20-1 and above runners and a number of these will win and since this whole idea is based around finding that winning run i would hate to have only a small portion of money on it when it wins.

You are better off working out what funds you need to follow a particular horse, this will then decide the bank you need to follow your stable runners and as money becomes available via winning selections you can add more runners or increase the stakes on new runners added to the stable.

If you wanted to employ an idea like the loss sharing you could add each weeks new selections to a new pool, week 1 might have 4 runners week 2 might have 7 runners and so on.

Doc's Donkeys - Saturday December 8th
 

Friday Night Results
SR 5 no 1 - Art Thou Ready (Target $10) $2 Bet @ $6 – np – Target $12
SR 7 no 4 - Carmine King (Target $10) $2 Bet @ $6 – 2^nd – Target $12
Saturday
MR 4 no 1 - Tariana (Target $10) $1.9 Bet @ $6.5
BR 6 no 2 - Signified (Target $10) $1.4 Bet @ $8.5
SR 6 no 14 - Racing Heart (Target $10) $0.5 Bet @ $101 (Min bet allowable)
SR 7 no 1 - Madam Nash (Target $10) $1 Bet @ $12
SR 8 no 10 - Number One Gun (Target $10) $1.7 Bet @ $7

Cheers

Doc

Agree that if you hit a $20-1 winner your not gonna be happy your only winning $10, but on the flipside of that because your betting to win a set amount your limiting your risk. Your solely looking at the winning side of that bet, but you have to remember $20 winners are relatively unlikely to hit at least consistently, so you want to limit your risk. By having a set profit your betting a small amount on those $20 horses and a larger amount on the $5 horses who are meant to have a better chance of winning.

I honestly think thats the hardest part of this game sometimes and it's something I've learnt a lot from share trading. It's not always about how much you win, obviously this is where you get your profit, but limiting your losses as well is a big part of money management.

Obviously you know all of this Shaun, but your post just kinda reminded me its always a good idea to weigh up the amount your risking equally with what your potentially winnings will be.

I'm liking the loss sharing idea, i'd honestly give it a crack with loss sharing if I had the time and ability to track it. Guess i'd have to black book each selection so I could follow it until it wins.

If you are using a stable black book is the only way to go as you don't want to miss any runners.

I find the one from racenet a good service and provides an option to put in some notes so you could use it to keep track of wages or prices.

I agree Shaun.

I use the Racenet Blackbook all the time.

Notes make it a lot easier to sort the reasons why tou have blackbooked them.

Doc's Donkeys - December 8th Update
 

Saturday Results
MR 4 no 1 - Tariana - np
BR 6 no 2 - Signified - np
SR 6 no 14 - Racing Heart - np
SR 7 no 1 - Madam Nash - np
SR 8 no 10 - Number One Gun - np
Hall Of Fame
Nil
Hall of Shame
Nil

Current Horses

Gran Torino ($13.9)

Anelene ($10)

Art Thou Ready ($12)

Carmine King ($12)

Tariana ($11.9)

Signified ($11.4)

Racing Heart ($10.5)

Madam Nash ($11)

Number One Gun ($11.7)

Progress

Bets – 8

Wins – 0

Outlay - $14.4

Return - $0

There is one Metro meeting tomorrow in Tasmania but no qualifiers. I will update prior to Wednesday or if a H2F is nominated earlier.

Cheers

Doc

Keep it going doc.

One thing that happens on this forum, and is TYPICAL if punters in general, is that they give up if they're not handed everything right into their lap. Good threads go eerily quiet. They'll pay for a system and back it and give it up quickly only to proceed to another method of selecting horses, then they'll find their old system came good, so back they'll go and it starts losing again.

Patience ..... Logic ..... And A Little Tweaking will win the day !!!

Following a horse is logical .....

FOR) - It embraces the randomness of racing which kills most punters. AGAINST) - Finding the right method to choose a horse to follow is the tough bit.

Just a suggestion, why don't you cut your list off at say 10 horses to follow, otherwise you're going to have a list as long as your arm. I've got bundles of cash at the ready 'coz I like your selection method.

Hi Barny,

I have had computer/password issues so have been unable to log on for a little while. There were no qualifiers on Wednesday and none of the stable have had another run.

I'm happy ATM to keep going with a larger list. As this progresses, I'm hoping we might find a few little areas/filters we can use to tighten things up.

I will review this if our list gets out of hand.

The first change I have been considering is if we are hoping the value will come a few runs into the horses prep, we might nominate them as horses to follow but only back them on runs 3 to 6 of a prep......... Food for thought any way....

I will have the intitial contenders for the wwekend up later tonight.

Cheers

Doc