Betfair Fav vs Tote Fav
 

I'm not sure that this would work and I have no way of really finding out apart from sitting on the computer all day but does anyone know that when the Betfair fav is different from the tote fav whether the Betfair fav wins more often than the tote fav in those races?

It's just something that you think you notice during a betting day but may just be totally coincidence.

And supposing that it did.
How would that be utilized in a beneficial way?

I was thinking that a system might be to only bet the Betfair fav when it was different from the tote fav. I thought that would of been pretty obvious. Probably wouldn't work but just thought someone may know if it would or not.

Dunno about the fav's but you regularly see longer priced runners (say ~ $8-$12) that with a couple minutes to go are substantially shorter with BF than the Tab's & they often run well.

So I would assume that a standout BF fav would also go pretty well, but well enough to make it worthwhile? Have my doubts.

I still can't see what you see.
So if the Betfair Fav wins more often than the Tote Fav , then you back these animals on the Tote , and you end up with better Odds than Betfair.
Why Favourites?
Why not include second favourites as well?
Or 3rd?
Or the Whole Field?
Or maybe I best get back in my corner and wish you well with it.

T.O.

My memory's a little hazy about this because it was quite a few years ago, but thinking about your query I remember that someone (I believe on anther forum) said he/she had made about $100,000 (yes, $100,000) by backing horses that had a lower price on Betfair than on the TAB (I seem to think he/she mentioned it was the NSW TAB) and I'm also under the impression he/she may have been referring to the TAB fave.

I can't remember if he/she mentioned backing them on the TAB or Betfair, but if the TAB offered a better price than Betfair I would not be surprised if it was on the TAB.

After reading his/her posting I checked it out. And sure enough there were quite a few winners, and also a few placegetters, and I remember being quite impressed. However, I can't remember if it was only the fave or if I looked at all that were at single figures. Anyway, I could not be at my computer and I soon lost interest.

Whether this still hold good today I can't say because I forgot about it until now when reading your query.

No worries michaelg.

Thanks guys for responding. I'm not sure how you would play it but thought if someone had some sort of stats maybe there may be a system there somewhere for anyone looking for something to try out - being the systems forum and all. ;)

Systems ain't about beating educated Punters.
Educated Punters eat System Players just as surely as they eat Uneducated Punters.
Systems Players eat the crumbs left over from the Uneducated Punters that the Educated Players couldn't fit in their mouths.
If your System Rules are not directed towards finding the Inefficiencies that the Uneducated Players cause , then you still have a System - But a losing one.

Those Educated Punters sure are a hungry lot.

Murtoa race 3 lower price on BF that Unitab

No 5

Well it was before it came in on Unitab.

Looks like a better lay strategy vrs old Gretchin?

LG

Yes probably a lay strategy rather than a backing one. I do tend to get things backwards.

Murtoa Race 4

No 4 lower on BF + the fav

I was thinking of starting a new thread on this but this seems an appropriate place. For the last 10 days or so I have been backing horses which are under 7.0 where the betfair price is lower than the bookies fixed odds in the last 3 mins of betting. The hit rate has been 40% and the profit on $50 bets is over $600.
There are not a lot of them, particularly on the weaker mtgs but since I watch most races for my other strategies it has been interesting. I have read many times that the horses which qualify under this criterion do well but have never tried it before since it would be pretty boring as a standalone method. Yesterday there was not a single selection but usually there are 2 or 3, with more on metro mtgs.

Thanks SpeedyBen.

I guess that's a little different to what I was trying to get at with two different favs but it goes along with a few other suggestions here (particularly michaelg) where if a horse on BF is under the tote price then it may be a goer.

As you say there wouldn't be much action.

That $600 you talked about. Is that backing on BF or with the bookie? I'm assuming you would soon be banned if making that kind of money with a bookie.

I have all of this data going back a few months. I did look into it a while abck and it was a long term loser. I will look into it again and report back.

The bet is with bookies but I have an account with many so I switch around at random. The only one who has curtailed me is the Paddy Pwoer owned one in darwin but that was a while ago and they still let me bet fixed odds with them.
There was one bet today after I posted earlier and the bookie I was looking at was betting 7.00 on a horse which was 4.4 on BF. Must have been a mistake as after my bet was accepted it came up as 4.2 with the bookie. The bookie's guardian angel was at work however and the horse never looked a winner.

I would be interested to know that UB.

This is the sort of thing that is good about forums like this.

Some naive person (me :oops: ) puts out a hare brained proposal and someone comes along and either confirms it or shoots it down.

That's okay as now I just move onto the next thing (once I can think of something :rolleyes: ).

ok I took a look at this and only looked at favs.

It showed a slight profit overall for laying to a set amount.

Straight Bet $100
Test Range 1: $453
Test Range 2: $-610
Test Range 3:$-2100

Bet to an Amount: $100 profit
Test Range 1: $-356.03
Test Range 2:$-331.10
Test Range 3:$-725

Lay Bet $100
Test Range 1:$-2066.50
Test Range 2: $-78
Test Range 3:$1022.00

Lay to Amount $100
Test Range 1: $-68.00
Test Range 2:$95.27
Test Range 3:$336.26

These periods covered the last 4 months of data in 10,000 horses per test range. (not all 10,000 made the criteria though).


Laying to a set amount is the only profitable method.

Thanks for those stats UB.

I was thinking along the lines of backing so there you go. :rolleyes: