Ratings - Class
 

Hi Guys,

I'm giving my ratings a final overhaul/adjustment given a number of old and current threads i've read recently along with a bunch of stats I recorded last year and stats recorded on the R&S website. I believe i'm across most area's pretty well and don't forsee any problems besides determining a 'Class' variable. The seems to be no uniform conclusion on what determines the 'Class' of a horse.

Some have suggested career prizemoney (API), some have suggested prizemoney within the last 12 months, others suggest utilising times and splits to come to a conclusion, and there are a number of other methods as well.

I'm looking for a reasonably simplified approach that can be automated quite easily through excel using imported form to calculate a class variable for each horse. All thoughts, idea's, suggestions are welcome and will be greatly appreciated as its the one aspect of my ratings that I haven't really pinned down yet.

I'll offer up my thoughts, is that it needs to be some kind of equation that deals in the average prizemoney won in the last 12 months potentially adjusted for the starting odds of the horse in that race. i.e. i'd suggest a horse that wins a $30,000 race at 3/1 probably has more class then a horse that wins a $30,000 race at 40/1 particularly if it has placed poorly on all other occasions.

I'm not exactly sure what other ways can utilized easily from a form guide to gauge the 'class' of a horse besides prizemoney.

Thoughts?

You could consider the handicapper ratings on the risa site that are used for handicapping.

Mind you I think API rank is pretty good provided you allow for outriders. API rank is a balance between class of races a horse ran in and its consistency and therefore a reasonable overall class indicator.

Thanks gunny, I think some use of prizemoney or API is probably the best way to go about it, just looking for the thoughts of others. I thought a few more people may have jumped in with their ideas or maybe they are keeping their cards close to their chest.

The more I think about it the more I'm leaning towards something that revolves around prizemoney won in the last 12 or 18 months and adjusting it for possibly lengths of victory (or loss), starting odds, size of field etc etc.

Will see what I come up with unless I can some additional input.

Cheers

Hi evajb001,

One way I evaluate class is by looking at horses who can sit on the speed, then sprint of a reasonable pace, or make multiple runs in a race.

An example from the weekend was Perfectly Stunning, who was baulked for a short period up the straight, then exploded once clear running the fastest last 200m.

In midweek handicap races, I look for the best weighted or most progressive horse in the race.

Not sure how it'll help your ratings but these are simply a few of my thoughts on the topic.

Thanks TS, not sure how to quantify that into variables using the form but thanks for the thoughts, will take it into consideration.

Going back to school
 

Would you believe Eva that back in 1994 there was a TAFE course here in Canberra that I attended called Horse Race Betting and Selecting. The lecturer was Warren Block, a compatriot of the famous Don Scott. I've still got the original class notes. On the subject of class Warren placed a value of 40kg on a Maiden handicap, increasing the kg rating through all the provincial restricted races right through to Metropolitan OPEN races with a 66kg value. That constituted a massive 15 lengths in improvement. So it would be easy enough to divide that graduation through the ranks up and assign a value. I could email a copy if you wish.
Cheers
RP

Rinconpaul
Can I put my hand up for a copy? wally at wallyhughes dot com dot au

Hi rinconpaul,

If you could email to me that would be appreciated as well, jbevans at internode dot on dot net

I'm not sure how I could apply it mathematically to my ratings but always happy to read something fresh that may be of use. I'm going to have a crack today at coming up with a formula that determines the class of a horse vs the other horses in the field.

Most other elements of my ratings i've nutted out and i'm very happy with (Barrier, Fitness, Trainer, Jockey, Performance in conditions/track/distance, Current Form, Career Performance) much the same as the R&S Nuerals. I'll be weighting heavily to Fitness, Performance in Conditions, Current Form and Class as 1) I personally believe these are the most significant factors and 2) the stats i've accumulated myself and read on these forums suggests this is true also.

Will let you know how I get on.

Eva, I sent you a couple of emails but just wanted to query your email address. I assumed it ended in .com.net You had .on.net
RP

.on.net is correct, internode uses .on.net for some reason instead of the regular .com

Yes please
 

Hi Rinconpaul,

Being a racing tragic, I'd also love a copy of the info if possible.

paullytwoshoes at gmail dot com

I use the R&S neural $ column and consider any runner showing double figures on a setting of 3, to reduce the field.The winner is usually among this grouping.

Evening RP.

If possible, please send thru a copy to:
LORDGREYSTOKE3RD at GMAIL dot COM

Would be much appreciated and full circle for me since reading Don's gems back in the 80's.

Cheers LG

Rinconpaul,

May I request a copy of this as well?

Would be greatly appreciated.

jbsplace at tpg dot com dot au

Regards

Sent, glad to see you're researching old posts, onya.

Hi RP,

Would love a copy please.

doc760 at bigpond dot com.

Thanks

Brett

It was sifting through old posts in this forum that allowed me to adapt a nifty equation a fellow forumite posted some time ago in relation to class. It has performed quite well for me of late.

Have a read through some threads and see if you can find it, here is the hint.

It involves API, weight and win%. I've adapted it a bit further.

Still think class is one of the hardest things to gauge/measure.

If 36.5 % of Horses at 55KG + produce 50.6 % of winners then surely weight is the given for Class.

(Stats supplied by Inracing)

evajb, I think I know the one you mention - I also modified the one I came across years ago & use it as quick guide when assessing chances. iirc a current member posted the idea?

Very useful tool to have, & great for those fun days at the track when I don't wont to think to hard, so just mark the best bets with the top 4 for each race & then target the value runners.

stugots from memory i think your right it was a current member, CP perhaps? Certainly thats all it is, a quick guide, but as far as I can tell so far its a good starting point.

I used the DS method when his book was first published. I actually found the handicapper just about always was correct. I actually dropped class-weight and just used the bonuses with better results.

Was it the one from M that got the total prizemoney divided by the number of starts multiplied by the win% twice for good measure and then divided by the given weight?

yeh that sounds about right, pretty sure thats the one

No .Its the one where he determined Class via the Handicappers weight run over hundreds of thousands of races.

The result was the definitive answer to CLASS.

been very cryptic of late Mr Dog;)

Yes.

Some of the posts are quite enlightening.

When things become too boring I endevour to create a laugh at the absurdity of Racing and its many dreamers.

After 40 years of successful betting I can safely say I,ve just about seen all the crackpot ideas some people think up in a endevour to discover the "Holy Grail."

This thread is one of the better ones and I have great respect for Evajb

After all I made quite a lot of money with his original Ratings betting the 1st and 3rd rated.
As he hasnt put up the new fangled ones I cant comment.

Cheers