Races to Dutch Back
 

This thread is about finding filters that eliminate races less suited to Dutch Back than others. Can we find an edge? I would appreciate your thoughts, confirmations, stats but please, no sales pitches!
Bhagwan was a great fan and mentor of Dutching. Reading old threads I've sourced some of his edicts:
1/ Target <= 10 runner races. Fact or Fiction?

Now longshot winners (BF >$30 Back prices) are the enemy! From my 'DNA of Longshots' I found that the average field size for longshot winners was 12. There were 24% of winners in <=10 runner races. However how many, as a percentage, are there <=10 runner races per day?
Today there were 84 races and 27% were <=10 runner races. Of those some were 7 horse fields and had no $30 runners anyway. So they cancel each other out. A: Fiction?
Now this is a Saturday with bigger than normal fields so maybe there is something in this theory. Maybe you blokes with searchable databases could confirm some of these stats?

There's plenty more to come so feel free to contribute for a mutually profitable outcome perhaps.
Cheers RP

Another thought is - do we have to dutch. How do you think it would go with level stakes - leaving out the short prices? I know I hate it when I get a good priced winner, but get very little for it because it was dutched.

Don't forget Clive, "small fish are sweet" pick the right races and back horses with a total 90% chance of winning, you'll get many small pays. I only had to dutch 3 races today for 40% of liability profit and I was able to enjoy the outdoors the rest of the arvo.
Don't think betting on every race is a way to make money. The less time you're betting, the less chance of losing! At last count today there were 3 longshot winners today, the enemy of Dutchers and Layers, you never know when or where. The "DNA of a longshot" filters show us where they lurk. Hopefully, the filters we learn about in this thread will cut down the threats further.
RP

If you back 1 or two selections per race, I find betting to price a little harsh as well. But 3 or more, I think dutching is he way to go.

Having said that I use a 3/2/1 unit scale for my system selections now. The morning price dictates how many units each selection gets. This is based on expected strikes rates of each unit group. Because in reality you don't want to have the same bet size on a $2 shot as you would on a $20 shot.

2/ Races with First starters are races to AVOID. Fact or Fiction?

A: FACT

I think some people just bet for something to do between shouts at the club/pub? How can you risk your hard earned on horses with no form? There was $154,000 wagered in total on the two races shown in the attachment.

Races with horses resuming from a spell and a price > $30 are races to AVOID? Fact or Fiction?

A: FACT

Can anyone be sure what a fresh horse can do? Especially young maturing horses.

You might ask, "why do this excercise, $30+ horses hardly win.."
From my limited database I believe the strike rate of horses with a BF SP of $30+ is 5% (happy to be corrected) So if we're Dutch Backing horses < BF $30, provided we can achieve a 8 -10% profit for the dutch, let's do the sums based on $100 liability:

1000 races, win 95%, equals 950 x 'say' $9 profit = $8,550 less commission = $7,994 nett. Lost 50 races (5%) = $5,000. Total nett profit $2,994 or 2.99% POT.
Now with what we can learn about races to avoid betting on, if we were able to filter out 20% of losing races our results look like this:
1000 races, win 96%, equals 960 x $9 profit = $8,640 less commission = $8,078 nett. Lost 40 (4%) = $4,000. Total nett profit $4,078 or 4.08% POT.
Our POT has increased a massive 33% for a 1% increase in strike rate or 20% less losing races!
The power of 1%, how it can make a difference.
RP

The BEST race to Back
 

These one's only come round once in awhile, races where the TAB 1st fav has a fixed price > $6.90. there was only one yesterday, Flemington R5. Ist fav TAB Fixed price $7.50.
The stats I have suggest that the winner has NEVER been outside the top 8. The BF Back prices were:
8.8, 9, 10, 10, 10.5, 12.5, 13, 14

The winner was the $9 horse

Dutch these for a 34% profit.
RP

Using what ever method, with one bet, do you think you can make a profit of about one quarter of one per cent per day? I can hear you all the way back in Canberra, "I can make heaps more than that...!!!" The money in your savings account is making a hundredth of one percent per day.

It needs to be a very safe bet, you could Dutch the field to 99.97%. You could Lay a 350:1 shot each day. The object is to make just .028% nett profit each day.
Can you allocate a reasonable sum to this first stake, something that will feel like a pinch if you lose it but won't hurt for more than 5 minutes?
No more losing, you have to achieve this with one bet every day for one year!
Say you've got a lazy $1,000. Win your first bet, you've now got $1,002.80. Your stake tomorrow is now $1,003, you win and make $2.81. Add that to the stake and bet again and again, keep adding your winnings to the stake for the next days bet.

At the end of one year what are you going to do with the $1,800 profit you've made? The power of compounding or All Up betting. THINK about the possibilites? After you've made your first $1000 profit you could split your stakes and start running two bets a day and so on & so forth.
RP

The problem is ... You will hit a loser as it is inevitable so you need to make enough to cover your 0.28% and also make up for the inevitable loser which will come every 350+ bets if you lay at 350:1)

Well UB, you've got the big database, when was the last time a $350 BF Lay or SP was hit. Interesting to know.

The purpose of this post was more to highlight how powerful compounding can be and then splitting stakes to reduce risk. As well as not increasing stakes with NEW money, instead using what you've already made so your original capital is preserved. Now I know these methods are used by yourself as you have always been concerned when someone on a supposed winning streak just doubles their stake!
Thanks RP

Another Bhagwan edict was, "Don't Dutch if 1st Fav is over $4.00". Fact or Fiction?

A: Fiction

Of the last 55 > $30 BF Back price winners, the first favourite was less than $4 Tatts price, 82% of the time.
RP

Later in Feb 2012 Bhagwan amended his earlier edict and it became:
"Only Dutch if Fav is $3.25+". Fact or Fiction?

A: Part Fiction

Of the last 55 no. >$30 BF Back priced winners, 50% were > $3.25 Tatts price.

So we're starting to see a useful filter emerge. Confidence can be gained by only Dutching races wherein the Fav is $4.00+. this is confirmed by long term stats wherein Fav's $4.00+ only win < 21% of the time so the luck is more spread amongst the other horses.
It's uncanny that longshots appear more often when the Fav is an average of $3.00 (29% Win S/R). Anyone got a theory on that?
RP

I would like to be able to pick races where the favorite is less likely to win, but I have looked at many scenarios and haven't cracked it yet.

Hi Clive

One way to achieve your objective is to find a way to profile the types of favourites that are more likely to under perform. This is what I and most professionals that I know do. A few tips that might help are:

1. Avoiding back markers (especially when the likely early pace conditions are against them and more relevant in larger fields);
2. Avoid those that are ridden by jockeys who are over bet by the market place.

In respect of the first point you will need access to reliable speed maps (unless you are able to construct them yourself and in regards to point 2. you focus on each jockey by only considering those rides when they are expected to perform. Personally I use this data and measure each jockey on a short and medium term horizon.

Diary of a Dutchman
 

Tried the new Dutching Bot at $5.00 stake today. No filters on any races, come what may! Dutching to approx 90% Max $30 BF Back.
18 smiles 3 accidents. Nett profit 87% of liability or $4.36.
There were two small losses associated with unmatched bets going SP.

Slippage and what to do about it?
 

I've noticed today with two races, even though my Dutch had the winner I still lost about 13% of liability due to unmatched bets going SP.

With the bot you select the horses to Dutch, it does a calculation and returns a potential profit for you to approve. You hit the GO button, the bot fires but not all the bets are matched straight away. Some unmatched bets then go SP.
Example: The bot has staked a horse $41.90 @ $6.60 when bot fires. If unmatched BF gives you the SP price, in this case $5.17 but you're still staked at $41.90. Your Dutch is now out of kilter by $59.92.
There's swings and roundabouts, sometimes it works the other way.

Has anyone encountered this Dutch betting? Any solutions?
Cheers RP

only solution is bet even earlier so you can adjust or a much faster computer connection.

UB, because I'm Backing' is there a bot that can connect with a fixed price bookmaker and dutch bet? Their fixed prices don't fluctuate as much.
RP

there would be somewhere as a start try looking at rewardbet

Started my Christmas Club All Up yesterday. Found the perfect horse in "Van Hooligan" Ballina R3. 39 starts 0 wins 85 Rating L3S 829. $500 @ 231.69SP = $2.03. Stake today $502

Looked into this, trouble with the fixed price TABs & Bookmakers is there overround is 115%+ so your 10% worse off than Betfair anyway and that's your profit gone.
RP

Onya RP. I decided to seriously evaluate what longshot first starters and first uppers can do. Having been hit by them a few times when evaluating the noorals I knew that they popped up on a semi regular basis. I set my bot up to back all such horses if 30+ was available 10 seconds before the jump. There were 36 losers before the first winner this morning. My bot backed it at $110. Hooblodyray!
My first ever 100/1 winner.

Good when your studies amount to something! I had the choice between Lil Nina and Falpollo to Lay so I referred to my $30 plus Betfair spreadsheet (see thread DNA of a longshot winner) and saw that FS > $30 have 5% WSR and resumers 15% so I went with Lil Nina thank God!
I was nearly going to post at the beginning of the day that we were due a longshot coming home as we never had one at all yesterday.

The bad news was that I wasn't watching when it won. The good news was that I was recording the day's races for another project I'm working on.
Do you think it would be wiser to have more on the first uppers than the unraced brigade?

Speedy, refer to attached.
Cheers RP

Speedy, did you get on Omaru Rose @ $32 Sandown R9?
RP

No. My bot didn't back it. I suspect it must have been under $30 when it checked. It backed Ortayga in the race.
Thanks for the xls. Very interesting.

What category did you put this one under RP? (Cant open your file with old excel)

Cheers LG

There's a 2003 version in the DNA of a Longshot winner, My Lord.
It is a few posts after this version.

Sorry LG this one is updated right up to date in XL 2003
RP

Time will tell RP; I am 14 trials into a day-to-day experiment whereby I am targeting 3.2% return on bank(ROB !). Didn't start out as one bet per day but is fast ending up this way. Means I get out whilst ahead or cut any loss quick smart.

Seems to be working OK thus far...
=> 100 units at start
=> col 1 = running balance
=> col 2 = 3.2% target per day
=> target exceeded = 9 trials(64%)

1... 132.7..103.2
2... 149.2..106.4
3... 166.5..109.6
4... 178.4..112.8
5... 170.3..116.0
6... 176.4..119.2
7... 140.9..122.4
8... 121.5..125.6
9... 121.9..128.8
10. 132.8..132.0
11. 157.0..135.2
12. 161.5..138.4
13. 168.3..141.6
14. 198.5..144.8

Cheers LG

Alas Sir.. this one still cannot be opened in the 2003v, not even with the might of Excalibur!

LG

I suspect you'll find that Field Size has a lot to do with this as FS seems to work linearly on the Fav. Price. Looking at Sat Metro it runs from 35.1% with FS8 to 26% at FS 16. A 29%WSR occurs at FS 11 which is the roughly average Field AllOz. Fascinating stuff .... thanks for the thought provoking thread.

This is right up to date

Thanks mate. Very interesting findings in there, especially with FU runners in the sprints.

Cheers LG

And that has been happening for as long as I can remember. Until BF arrived it was hard to find a way to profit from the regular longshot winners. I'm not certain that it is possible now but getting 60 points over the tote odds, as happened yesterday, gives it a chance.