A Ripsnorter "Lay" System- With Results.
 

The Rule.

Any horse that ran 33 or 44 in past 2 starts in current campaign.

Results 19/5 - 27/5

102 Bets/ 1 win @$2.45.

Good one Darky, be rare for two losses in a row too, so recovery staking plan an option.
RP

How about these..:-

LAY: 19/05/2013 WARWICK FARM (WAF)
SR 1 # 9 5x44 VISION SPLENDID 24.0 WON 3.60 PL 1.70
LAY: 19/05/2013 MT GAMBIER (MTG)
XR 2 # 3 x244 MANNERTONE 5.5 WON 5.80 PL 1.70

LAY: 25/05/2013 MACKAY (MAC)
XR 1 # 3 6233 WOODPARK ROAD 1.9 WON 2.40 PL 1.50
LAY: 19/05/2013 SUNSHINE COAST (SUN)
bR 6 # 1 x133 REQUIREMENT 7.0 WON 2.50 PL 1.40


Enjay

Twins 2
 

Darkydog was dispatched a fatal blow by "Zoro" aka Enjay..!!! lol. or was he ???

Well Darky, there might be a method in your madness. On the "Black Day", the 19th May, let's use your technique but broaden it a little:

Lay all horses on the 19th of May that had a PAIR of TWIN placings last two starts of current campain:
1,1 ..........7 wins 1 accident
2,2 ..........7 wins 1 accident
3,3 ..........3 wins 1 accident
4,4 ..........5 wins 2 accidents
5,5 ..........1 win
6,6 ..........3 wins
7,7 ..........2 wins
8,8 ..........3 wins 1 accident
9,9 ..........2 wins
0,0 ..........5 wins

If Layed for a $100 liability a nett profit on the day of $130.23 !!
2.9% POT. Don't give up just yet Darky!

Remember Enjay having a few losses is "part & parcel", doesn't mean you've lost at the end of the day.

Onya Darky,
RP

Nice try Norm BUT never happened.

28/5/013
 

Lets see if Norm (with his "Magical Spectacles ") get any more than these.

Gosford
R 2 H 1
Grafton
R 6 H 4
Townsville
R 3 H 6

I'm confused DD as those nags listed by enjay won, so am I missing something?

Using "The Rule" over 12 years.

35,742 occurences. 13.5% Win Strike Rate. 86.5% Lay Rate. Average Win Price (AAP) $5.33.

Regards,

So, about 3000 selections per year with a lay profit of about 15% at estimated BF prices. Not bad.

Demodocus,
You've told us what the Average Win price is for the 4,825 times the selection Won. What is the average Lay price for the 30,916 times it lost? OR is $5.33 the average price (What, Tote, BF, SP ??) for all 35,742 horses?
Interested to know as it might refine Speedy's profit downwards.
RP

I added a dollar to the 5.33, RP to do the lay calc. Not enough, you feel?

Well Speedy, the "Twin 2" excercise I did this morning had horses in a range from $2.16 - $360 ? Just don't take a mortgage out to fund this one just yet! See if we get any clarification.
RP

I wasn't planning to follow this one, my friend, but your concern for me is touching.

Hi Rinconpaul.

Simply pointing out that post #1 by DD was incorrect nothing else. I could not be bothered testing back further as discrepancies in such a short period of time would only escalate.

Enjay

The Average AAP Price for the selections that WON is $5.33

The Average AAP Price for the selections that LOST is $11.35

The Average AAP Price for ALL selections is $10.54

Regards.

So they're Tote prices, we'll call the Tote $11.35 as BF Lay price $13 = $7.79 x 30,917 = $240,894 IN
less 4,825 x $100 L = $482,500 OUT!
A loss of $241,606.

This one's not for the "Seven Squared Plan".......lol, RP

3/3 successes as usual today.

3/3 successes as usual today.

105 selections /1 win.

My best guess (and I use UNITAB) is that the discrepancy (If any) is that the SIMPLE rules are being misunderstood.
33 or 44 in CURRENT campaign.

NOT 3X3 or 4X4 or 33X or 44 X.

I cant explain it any more simpler than that.
Gees.

these meet the rules DD

https://tatts.com/racing/2013/5/19/SR/1
https://tatts.com/racing/2013/5/19/AR/2
https://tatts.com/racing/2013/5/19/QR/6
https://tatts.com/racing/2013/5/25/IR/1

There are 2 other versions of this Rule which together make a Turfy Trinity.

Add a sprinkle of the 3 into some of the Good Lord's work elsewhere... we might just scoop the return air fare on Dutch-Air.

Cheers LG

Hi Your Lordsip.
Gees dont ya get sick of people who cant read Form or English.

For that reason this will be my last post on this good LAY method.

Be interesting what some others come up with for Tomorrow.

Doomben
R 8 H 7
W.farm
R 6 H 7
R 7 2
Kempsey
R 4 H2
Bendigo
R 3 H 11
R 8 H 9
Balalava
R 1 H4
Belmont R 5 H 4

Darkydog, please let me know if these are selections or not, cheers pal.

????? That sounds like you darky... Take the easy way out by not posting again when you are wrong. Assuming you are referring to stugots and myself when you say "Gees dont ya get sick of people who cant read Form or English." According to your rules :- These are selections as backed up by stugots with reference to tatts website.////
LAY: 19/05/2013 WARWICK FARM (WAF)
SR 1 # 9 5x44 VISION SPLENDID WON 3.60 PL 1.70
LAY: 19/05/2013 MT GAMBIER (MTG)
XR 2 # 3 x244 MANNERTONE WON 5.80 PL 1.70

LAY: 25/05/2013 MACKAY (MAC)
XR 1 # 3 6233 WOODPARK ROAD WON 2.40 PL 1.50
LAY: 19/05/2013 SUNSHINE COAST (SUN)
bR 6 # 1 x133 REQUIREMENT WON 2.50 PL 1.40


As for tomorrow :- * Be interesting what some others come up with for Tomorrow.* From Tatts website Warwick Farm Race 2. Horse 6

LAY: 29/05/2013 WARWICK FARM (WAF)
SR 2 # 6 3733 DREAM SUPREME

Apologies would be in order.

Enjay

Norm - i can confirm your figures are correct.

you actually get better results laying 11 or 22 in current campaign.

Throughout history, men have stepped up. Now, it's over to you, gentlemen.

Cheers LG

Let's play golf on the moon. Bird up!!

7/7 successes

Running total 112 bets / 1 win @$2.45

I will leave the smarter punters too it..

Cheers
darky

Not too Stugouts Norm.

Why was vision splendid not a selection dd?

Might have missed it.
What race.?

not sure never mind

do you think this system might tend to favor those horses either not stepping up in distance either or horses that have peak already?

I get it now, this is all just a p.take - got me a good one DD you devil you

I dont know frankly.
I dont look too deeply into that sort of thing.

The few I have Tomorrow are ....
Rockhampton
R 4 H 12
R 5 H 3
K.Grange
R 3 H 4 + 7
R 7 H 4
Sale
R 2 H 11
R 3 H 3.

Cheers

When you get tired of selections with 'Twins' in the last 3 starts you could move on to "plays on words or letters" in the horse's name:
Titled names: Regal Tier, The Princeling, Lord Ashfordly......
Twin names starting with same letter: Craiglea Cruz, Hazy Heart............
One name containing 3 or 4 others: Onadowntowntrain, Secretmensbusiness.............
Names with double vowels: Geegee's Blackflash, Great Cheer, Lideem..............

The list goes on and on, then you can start work on the trainer's or jockey's name........lol
It's just a THOUGHT!!, as much chance of winning as any other?? Have a great day RP

very true Rinconpaul.
Lets just get the colours right first and then move onto the difficult element of numbers

Yes that might work but would probably be too many selections.
Anyway why bother.
The original and best loses nearly every bet (1 Win @ bet 87 - rest losses up to bet 112.

I agree with you. Absolutely the BEST "Lay" method ever produced and FREE to the intelligent Punter.

Cheers
darky

For US/THOSE *people who cant read Form* I wonder what to do with
Penola XR 7 # 4 4033 NOTHIN LEICA FLASH Looks like a pair of 3's last two starts, this preparation to me. ????? Maybe I cannot read form properly, and I am sure it is today.


LAY: 30/05/2013 SALE
mR 2 #11 44 DISTANT DREAMS
mR 3 # 3 944 GO DREAMING

LAY: 30/05/2013 ROCKHAMPTON
XR 4 #12 3244 IF ONLY THEY KNEW
XR 5 # 3 6x44 DIRECT DEBIT

LAY: 30/05/2013 PENOLA
XR 7 # 4 4033 NOTHIN LEICA FLASH

LAY: 30/05/2013 KEMBLA GRANGE
sR 3 # 4 3x33 ELAN GRENADINE
sR 7 # 4 8533 GENERAL WEB

Enjay

He's having a lend enjay, disappointing really as I thought this forum had moved past that sort of stuff:(

Who is having a lend.
Laying means your betting the Horse loses NOT Wins.
I thought you blokes Knew that.
Sadly you,ve lost credibility .