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Mister 10%
This isn't a new one, in fact it's an old one from years ago by Mark.
I've just embellished it a little. Rules, LAY all: Non Maidens All horses with <= 10% Win strike rate Selection must have had prev 3 starts this campaign. Yesterday there were 54 selections for 2 accidents. POS (original stake as liability / profit * 100) = 69% Interesting to see how this one performed over the last 3 months say? If anyone could crunch the numbers and let us know. It could probably do with a couple more filters (race distance for e.g.) It picks up some good priced horses to Lay. Accidents are rare so a recovery staking plan could help. Anyone want to run with it?? RP |
RP any chance you can show the POT result as well? Not exactly sure how this POS calculation works, maybe my brain is a bit fried for a Friday.
EDIT: I think I understand it now, so anything above 100% means you've made over 1x your liability for the day, anything from 0-100% means you've partially made enough to cover 1x liability and anything under 0% means you've made a loss for the day, correct? |
Better than earlier thought!
I'm glad you raised the query Eva because I just checked and realised the "=SUM(Range)" on the spreadsheet was wrong, I had left it on an old setting. So the POS was 299%
54 bets @ $100 = $5400 Profit for the day based on $100 liability = $299 POT is $299 divided by $5400 = 5.5% Thanks for that........RP |
Your welcome, looks like a healthy little system although obviously needs some more time to fully grasp its potential.
Appreciate your constant innovation RP its definitely helping to turn the cogs in my head and think of ways I can approach things. Cheers |
Add On
You can add on to this if you want to include maidens, Mark's rule was to Lay all maidens that hadn't broken through after 10 starts or more.
I would still apply the, "must have 3 prev starts in this campaign" filter, it just cuts out so many surprises! RP |
Well, I've just thought of the first filter to apply? Not to be Layed if start Favourite. See Ipswich R3 "Green Cashmere" just broke her maiden after 10 straight!
RP |
Results today:
Canberra 13 selections, no accidents, 115% POS Grafton 33 selections, no accidents, 127% POS Ipswich 6 selections, no accidents 0.18% POS Swan Hill 4 selections, one accident -76% POS So, for a $100 liability: Turnover 56 bets @ $100 = $5,600 Nett profit $184 POT 3.3% Not too bad!...........RP |
Well done RP!
Looking good!!
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I found this to be around a 8.24% strike with an avg dividend of around $9.20
I use this in conjunciton with horses running with the same weight or less as Last start or horses outside the top 5 API rank. Drops the strike rate down to around 6%; same avg dividend |
Just remember mist of Marks work was done on Sat metro races.
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Selections to LAY for today incorporating Vortech's (thank's for your contribution) filters:
Randwick R2........7, 8, 11 R5........9, 12, 13 R7........5, 7 Flemington R2........13, 14 R3........5 R5........12 R6........9, 11, 13, 18, 19 R7........15 R8........12 Eagle Farm R3........18 R7........6, 12, 16, 18 R8........9, 12 R9........8, 14 Morphetville R3........7 R4........11 R5........4, 7, 9, 12, 13, 14 R6........4, 10, 14 R8........9, 12, 14, 16 Belmont R5........6 Kembla R5........6 R6........9, 10 R7........14 R8........9, 11, 12, 14 Tamworth R2........7 R5........2 R6........9, 10 Swan Hill R4........5, 11, 12, 14 R5........9, 11 R6........10, 11 R8........7 Now I've never had any luck, everytime I post selections (aka Cadillac days, forum curse!), so I hope these fare OK? Good luck today at whatever you do...RP P.S. For Saturday's Mark had a rule that you could Lay every runner with a less than 17% win strike rate in lieu of the weekday 10%, so I've incorporated that filter into these selections |
Missed a couple of races:
Gold Coast R1.........9 R2.........8 R3.........5, 8, 9, 10 Toowoomba R1.........7, 8 R2.........7, 10 R3.........9 R6.........4, 6 R7.........6, 8 RP |
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Results: Nett loss of $42.40 |
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Had to wait for Toowoomba to be completed. The overall result for Saturday was a nett Profit of $96.26 A POT of 1.4%. A POS of 96% In reality I had doubled my liability after R3 Morphetville and stopped betting for the Day. My thread "Is POS better than POT" advocates setting a profit target and once reached STOP betting. The longer you're betting the more chance you'll get hit with the inevitable losses and struggle all day to recoup. There were 3 selections that started as favourite, one of which won, so if I eliminated betting on favourites as a filter the profit would have increased to about $150 for the day. Include the results from the two previous days, a total profit of $579 ($100 liability)not too bad a system so far! I'll leave it in the stable! RP |
Yesterday there were 2 accidents from 46 selections. Again, was able to get out early, after doubling my liability, before the first loser Pt Augusta R5 No. 9
RP |
Can you direct me to the thread about doubling liability, must have missed that one.
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Is POT better than POS? Now much is made of POT (Profit on Turnover) as a measure of the success or otherwise of Ratings, Systems, Performance. For me, the MORE important consideration is POS (Profit on Stake) We start each betting day with a stake. An amount we should feel slightly uneasy with if we lose it but more than happy with if we double it as profit! In the attached sheet, based on actual bets placed yesterday, is a set of bets placed using a theoretical $500 initial stake. As the day progresses we are doing quite well but take note of how the more you bet the more your POT decreases. If we set a target: that we want to double our stake, we should have stopped betting after bet 4. The punting Gods smiled on us and gave us another 6 opportunities to quit, but we ploughed on! Then we started to hit the inevitable losing patch, had a choice to quit for the day or start implementing loss recovery by increasing stakes. NOT GOOD. We were given another opportunity to quit at bets 15 -17 but we ploughed on to be hit with another loss. We took a punt and increased our stake 10 fold, which paid off! At the end of the day we achieved our POS target for a measley 3.3% POT and had a free rollercoaster ride at Luna Park. On another thread the question was asked, "When to Quit?". My answer is,"When you achieve your POS!". Have a great day, RP |
Thanks, you have some good ideas and back it up with reasoning and logic, keep up the good work fresh minds gets us all thinking.
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Another interesting post as usual!! Your theory holds water during one day of betting activity, however doesn't the fact that you go again the next day, then increase your chance of hitting a loser? Eventually, you have the same statistical chance of hitting a loser, as if you'd carried on after reaching your POS for the day? E.g. 100 bets over 1 day, or 100 bets over 30 days. You have the same statistical chance of hitting a loser, UNLESS, you have an edge in the earlier races. Hope it makes sense, I'm just trying to add an angle to the debate and am enjoying your latest threads IMMENSELY!! :) Cheers RP. |
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Option 1; You take an early but smallish loss; It's harder to shut up shop but easier to walk away with your bank and bollocks intact Option 2; You score an adequete predetermined return early doors (POS,POT,ROC etc etc); Again, it's harder to shut up shop but easier to walk away with your bank on the up (and a bigger pair?) Either way you win in that you can walk away and come back to play another day. Just my two pennies, but they all seem to be stacking up for me with this strategy. Give us a tune, Schmiley? Cheers LG |
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This trial of "Mister 10%" is a 'smash and grab', then run the bot on simulation to record the results. After a week or two I'll decide whether I've missed out on any loss/profit by not running it continuosly. Today, first bet was a loss, so I've got the rest of the day to recoup, "hopefully"?? Thanks for your interest, always appreciated. |
Results today:
2 accidents the last one being in the last race at Murray Bridge with "Irish Cheer" getting up, for a loss of $44 ($100 liability). There was an accident in the first and last races, a real bookend! Fortunately I recouped the first accident by mid afternoon and called it quits. Hate carry over losses! RP |
Method to the madness
You make a lot of sense RP!
The psychology of betting is the hardest thing to conquer. Why start tomorrow having to chase. LG, I'll send you a song or two in the next few days. I have some REALLY crazy new ones. |
There was one accident today but after 100% POS was reached.
Yesterday there was one accident first up, but the rest of the day's profit got it back square. |
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