Winning on the Punt
 

As part of your education you're going to develop a stable of 10 horses and follow their every move for the next year. This stable of horses will include a GH1 horse, preferably on a cups campaign, can be from o'seas if you wish, a GR1 and GR2 / GR3 horse from Gai Waterhouse Stable, a couple of decent handicappers (find the ratings from a well known publication which will give you a decent list to choose from), one has to be lightly raced and on the up, an unraced well bred 2y/o, a couple of horses part owned by the trainer, a maiden, a decent country horse. Mix up the sex, we want at least two geldings in this lot but not the "maiden". Mix up the trainers, don't go for the bigger well known trainers, we want one or two bush trainers and maybe one or two from Perth and Adelaide.

Follow EVERY move of these horses, ring the stables, go to the trackwork and trials where possible, go to the races, talk to anyone who seems to be involved with the horse. Investigate why they're entered for a particular race, find out their habits, their weaknesses their strengths, the motives of the trainer, the jockeys previous experience with the horse, the market moves, how the horse ran in the race, did it have bad luck, was it pushed wide, did you get the best price on course or could you have done better with Betfair, the weight the horse carried and does it matter, the barrier, the track and conditions, trackwork, keep meticulous records of everything.

Above all else try to get some inside information, I'm sure you'll be able to on some if you dig hard enough and stick with it long enough. This is crucial. When / If the horse wins was it well backed, did it look like it had a chance on "form", did the stable back it, was it easy in the market, why did it win.

It's not a lot of work really 10 horses with an average of 5 or 6 starts each is only 50 or 60 races each year. You decide if you want to replace a horse at anytime but keep records of why you did and try to keep the mix of horses / trainers as varied as possible.

It's crucial that you attend some trackwork / trials and talk to those involved with the horse. Dig for as much information as possible, I cannot stress this highly enough.

You must have some skin in the game so you must back your horses when you decide you want to, and this could be at every start, it's up to you. The size of the bet when you think the horse is going to win should make you feel uncomfortable, as this signifies you have considerable skin in the game and are prepared to back your judgement. The reason for this is that there's a lot of people who wish to make a living from this game, and those that do, well they back their judgement, not unlike any other business owner. Please note, this education suits only those who wish to win by backing winners, which is the historical nature of gambling on horses.

Boot leather or computers ????? ;)

Makes a lot of sense, even though this is pretty extream for the average punter a stables is a good idea.

In the past i have used a stable of runners and still think this one of the best ways to go, only issue i found was getting the right runners and to have the patients and funds to follow them.

Tests in the past has shown most Saturday winners can be followed for profit, pick a few runners and look at there total odds for wins.

nothing wrong with following the right maidens for their first win...some good odds too

I would say both, if one is within a stone's throw of a racecourse or a short dash down the back streets. Boot up your tablet and break out your running boots, Gentlemen.

Cheers LG

I,m with you CosMos.

I outlined many factors that influence the outcome of a race and the return one gets. Can one get a substantial enough advantage over your fellow punters by becoming an e-x-p-e-r-t in a couple of factors, eg; trackwork and trials and tempo ..... and ultimately win your 10% to 15% on a consistent basis. I think the "Follow the Top 10 Sires" thread should have opened a few eyes. Look solely at form and you're competing with almost everyone.

I know of a pro punter in Sydney who attends trackwork and the stables every morning and has been winning for the last twenty five years.
He is not a big name, he goes about his business as quietly as possible and never discusses "tips".

Even with me :(

Sometimes we have a general chat and he can't get his head around many of the concepts I discuss, but he knows his stuff and wins every single month.

There are so many ways to skin a cat...poor cat.

A question guys.

If we accept that winners keep on winning and losers keep on losing and we are following a stable of Saturday winners do we delete them from our list as soon as they win or do we keep them on our list assuming they are expected to win again.

Your thoughts?

For me i would judge the merit of the run,
And or the win, then decide after that.

Cheers.
G.F.

Good points garyf.

It would be difficult to back up on Spacecraft (took about 2 years to win) on Saturday albeit a very easy win given he was allowed to get away with "murder" out in front.

Good example but it may come back to haunt us saying that,
And me agreeing with it T.T.A. (L.OL.)

Cheers.

Your best thread yet!!
 

Hi Barny,

This is more like it old chum!

I love this concept that you've brought to the table.

I'll add my two cents later today with some magnanimous, statistical, majistical and ballistical stable ideas.

NICE WORK BARNY!! :)

Knowing the fitness levels of each horse and even watching it's progress as it matures has got to be an advantage.

I've noticed that the penny has dropped for 'clocker Thompson' of late. His tips used to be filed under 'thanks but no thanks' and now with a lot more experience, I actually pay attention when he says something is working really well. All those early mornings with the stopwatch are starting to pay off?....

I'd love to be out there every morning with a Long Mac, stopwatch and notebook but unfortunately it is not to be at this stage of my life. Maybe one day........

From my analysis which includes the Romans racing chariots, I would keep backing the horses provided they haven't hit GR2 or higher as yet ..... that's generalising of course.

Presented with your usual humility of course TheSchmile ;)

I have a background in marketing Barny, so I excel in the realm of OVER THE TOP!!!

Perhaps I should change my initials from TS to B-S......ha ha

Yep agree, where the horse races at, in, next start,
Is a major player in the decision.

Did i just agree with "BARNY" !@#$%^&*.(L.O.L.)

CHEERS.

garyf, we're all allowed the odd moment of insanity, no one will hold that against you, they're and understanding mob on here. As you were ..... ;)

The 2yo Spring stable
 

Listed below are the top 11 horses as rated by Timeform in their 2012-2013 2yo season. Their individual Timeform ratings are listed next to their names.

Under their names I've also listed:
Winning distances // Best rated run // Predicted best distance moving forwardinto their 3yo seasons

Overreach 121p
1100-1200 // 1200 Golden Slipper G1 // 1100-1200

Guelph 119
1000-1600 // 1600 Champagne G1 // 1400-1600

Sidestep 118
1200 // 1200 2nd Golden Slipper G1 // 1200-1600? Dam won 3yo G2 at 1600

Miracles Of Life 118
1000-1200 // 1200 Blue Diamond G1 // 1000-1200

Scandiva 117?
1100-1200 // 1400 2nd to Guelph G1 Sires Produce // 1200-1400

Criterion 115
1100-1200 // 1200 Todman G2 // 1100-1200

Equator 115
1250 // 1600 3rd Champagne G1 // 1200-1600

Fast 'n' Rocking 115
No wins // 5th Golden Slipper G1 // 1200-1400 Maybe longer?

Fuerza 115
No wins // 2nd Champagne G1

Romantic Touch 115p
1400-1600 // JJ Atkins G1 // 1400+?

Drago 114
1800 // 4th Champagne G1 // 1800m+ Derby prospect?

Note: I've assessed the last few years of the Victoria Derby winners and they were all given reasonably easy times as 2yo's avoiding the high pressure races such as the Slipper and Blue Diamond. Drago was probably the best of the list above from a staying point of view.

Here's a list below to help out. You can cut and paste their name's into the formguide at: www.racingandsports.com.au/form-guide

Year	Winner	Jockey	Trainer	Owner	Time
2012	Fiveandahalfstar [1]	Damien Oliver	Anthony Cummings	Thoroughbreds Pty Ltd	2:35.92
2011	Sangster [2]	Hugh Bowman	Trent Busuttin	K D Greenlees et al.	2:40.33
2010	Lion Tamer [3]	Hugh Bowman	Murray & Bjorn Baker	P H P Bayly	2:46.43
2009	Monaco Consul [4]	Corey Brown	Michael Moroney	G G Syndicate Ltd (Mgr: G Peterson) & O G Glenn	2:41.68
2008	Rebel Raider [5]	Clare Lindop	Leon Macdonald	B H Perks, T J Robertson, R B Fairclough, Dr P C Goel et al.	2:36.90
2007	Kibbutz [6]	Craig Williams	David Hayes	Terry Henderson syndicate et al.	2:40.92
2006	Efficient	Michael Rodd	Graeme Rogerson	Lloyd J. Williams et al.	2:38.35
2005	Benicio	Noel Callow	Lee Freedman	Freedman brothers et al.	2:37.08
2004	Plastered	Paul Harvey	Lindsay Smith	Jenella Harvey et al.	2:35.49
2003	Elvstroem	Damien Oliver	Tony Vasil	Elvstroem Syndicate	2:38.99
2002	Helenus	Steven King	Leon Corstens	Joseph & Thecla Xipell	2:40.54
2001	Amalfi	Damien Oliver	Peter Moody	Ron & Judy Wanless	2:34.63
2000	Hit The Roof	Glen Boss	David Hall	Bob Scarborough	2:39.02

You have to admire people like that CP, that is some serious dedication right there :)

The Full Monty
 

Hi Team,

Here's a list to kick you off that should feature in the big Spring Events, with Timeform ratings and anticipated best distances.

Albrecht 120 1200-1400?
Appearance 118 1500-1600m
Beaten Up 124 2000m+
Buffering 126 First up specialist
Castlzeberg 117 Keep an eye on it 2000m
Criterion 115 1100-1200 // 1200 Todman G2 // 1100-1200
Drago 1800 // 4th Champagne G1 // 1800m+ Derby prospect?
Epaulette 126 1400-1600m
Equator 1250 // 1600 3rd Champagne G1 // 1200-1600 -
Fast 'n' Rocking 115 No wins // 5th Golden Slipper G1 // 1200-1400 Maybe longer?
Fat Al 121 Randwick Mile (see how he comes back)
Fiorente 124 Given light Autumn for Cup tilt 2400+
Fiveandahalfstar 123 200-2500
Fuerza 115 No wins // 2nd Champagne G1
Green Moon 124 FLEMINGTON
Guelph 119 1000-1600 // 1600 Champagne G1 // 1400-1600
It's A Dundeel 127 1600-2000m
Keith's Legacy Dead/Slow
Miracles Of Life 118 1000-1200 // 1200 Blue Diamond G1 // 1000-1200
Moment Of Change 125 1400m Caulfield
Mrs Onassis First-up
Nashville 120 1400-1600m
Ocean Park 128 1600-200m
Onpicalo BOD Sand midweek
Overreach 121p 1100-1200 // 1200 Golden Slipper G1 // 1100-1200
Platelet 118 - 3rd & 4th up
Proisir 121 1600m
Puissance De Lune 123+ 2000m+
Rain Affair 126 Slow or Heavy 1200m
Rebel Dane 120 1200-1400m
Reliable Man 128 2000m+
Romantic Touch 115p 1400-1600 // JJ Atkins G1 // 1400+?
Sacred Falls 123 1600m
Sangster 123 2000m+
Scandiva 117? 1100-1200 // 1400 2nd to Guelph G1 Sires Produce // 1200-1400 -
Sea Siren 120 1200m straight?
Shoot Out 126 Warwick Farm or Randwick Mile
Sidestep 118 1200 // 1200 2nd Golden Slipper G1 // 1200-1600? Dam won 3yo G2 at 1600
Sizzling 118 34.48/11.75
Snitzerland 121p 1000-1200 unbeaten first-up
Streama 122+
Super Cool 122 1800+
Toydini 121p 1400-1600m

Amendments
 

There's a few that snuck through from my own blackbook, such as Onpicalo and Keith's Legacy but they're not too bad nags in lesser class races up to listed grade for Keith in the wet.

For further blackbookers, here's a link to the Group races throughout the year: Aus Horse Racing Info Group Races

Check last season's results from the best races and work from there, checking the horses' race records at: Racing and Sports Form Guide

Where there are multiple selections, start with the ratings figures and optimum distance ranges to sort out the fields.

Hope this is of some assistance. :)

Thanks for the list of Horses to Follow TS.

Reliable Man suffered an off-fore tendon injury in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Royal Randwick when winning so he'll be off the scene for an extended period.

Thanks TTA - duly noted and removed!

It brings me to Barny's original plan which was to find a top ten horses, perhaps the top 10 rated? They are:

Beaten Up 124 2000m+
Buffering 126 First up specialist
Epaulette 126 1400-1600m
Fiorente 124 Given light Autumn for Cup tilt 2400+
Green Moon 124 FLEMINGTON
It's A Dundeel 127 1600-2000m
Moment Of Change 125 1400m Caulfield
Ocean Park 128 1600-200m
Rain Affair 126 Slow or Heavy 1200m
Shoot Out 126 Warwick Farm or Randwick Mile
------------------
Next Best
Puissance De Lune 123+ 2000m+
Fiveandahalfstar 123 200-2500
Super Cool 122 1800+