Simple Pre-Post System Test
 

Hi All,

I was reading a few of the recent posts and was greatly interested in the effectiveness of pre-post markets to identify the best chances in a race. I have started trialling a system using the pre-post favourite in two readily available sources and using the top rated horse from two free sets of ratings.

The results so far have been encouraging so I thought I’d give them the greatest test of all and run the gauntlet of the forum curse.

I do not bet on heavy tracks and am considering the same for slow tracks.
I look at all Queensland meetings, all New South Wales and Victorian metro and provincial meetings and the number one Western Australian, South Australian and Tasmanian meeting. (So no Broome tomorrow)

Fingers Crossed :)

Interim Selections – Saturday July 6th

(I will finalise selections after scratching/track conditions finalised – around 11)
Belm 1 6 Miss Halloween
Belm 3 9 Smoko
Belm 4 7 Malaika
Belm 6 3 Northpace
Belm 7 1 Summah's Touch
Belm 8 15 Terkel
Eag F 2 10 Tiger Jet
Eag F 6 1 Ibicenco
Toow 3 7 Leprechaun Lad
Toow 4 3 Square Up
Seym 1 12 Crotchet
Seym 2 12 Zupacharged
Seym 3 6 Royal Mephisto
Seym 7 14 Oh Susannah
Seym 8 10 Wings Of Success
Seym 9 10 Indexes
Rose 1 1 Bull Point
Rose 7 3 Zaratone
Rose 8 1 Capital Commander
Newc 4 3 Houston
Newc 5 2 Spurlohn
Newc 7 14 Teenager
Newc 9 10 Sergeant At Arms
Newc 10 5 School Of Turin
Morp 1 2 Viking Tiger
Morp 2 3 Kiss Me Ketut
Morp 4 1 Esprit De Bullet
Morp 5 8 Princess Peggy
Morp 6 2 Wise Journey
Mack 2 7 Pascalino
Mack 4 7 Sporting Page
Mack 5 6 Six Of Hearts
Mack 7 1 Prussian Secret
Gold C 1 3 Travieso
Gold C 2 3 Hot Bickies
Gold C 5 3 Westbrook
Gold C 6 11 Anonymiss Kitty
Gold C 7 2 Florida Fellow
Flem 1 1 Lady Lakshmi
Flem 2 1 Ava's Delight
Flem 3 2 Upbeat
Flem 5 3 Riziz

Selections – Saturday July 6th
 

I have left the slow track selections in for now.

Seym 1 12 Crotchet
Flem 1 1 Lady Lakshmi
Newc 3 1 Incubus
Seym 2 12 Zupacharged
Rose 1 1 Bull Point (Slow)
Morp 1 2 Viking Tiger (Slow)
Flem 2 1 Ava's Delight
Newc 4 3 Houston
Eag F 2 10 Tiger Jet (Slow)
Seym 3 6 Royal Mephisto
Mack 2 7 Pascalino
Morp 2 3 Kiss Me Ketut (Slow)
Flem 3 2 Upbeat
Newc 5 2 Spurlohn
Mack 4 7 Sporting Page
Morp 4 1 Esprit De Bullet (Slow)
Belm 1 6 Miss Halloween
Flem 5 3 Riziz
Newc 7 14 Teenager
Mack 5 6 Six Of Hearts
Morp 5 8 Princess Peggy (Slow)
Eag F 6 1 Ibicenco (Slow)
Morp 6 2 Wise Journey (Slow)
Belm 3 9 Smoko
Newc 9 10 Sergeant At Arms
Rose 7 3 Zaratone (Slow)
Mack 7 1 Prussian Secret
Belm 4 7 Malaika
Newc 10 5 School Of Turin
Seym 9 10 Indexes
Rose 8 1 Capital Commander (Slow)
Morp 8 5 Finniss Power (Slow)
Belm 6 3 Northpace
Belm 7 1 Summah's Touch
Toow 3 7 Leprechaun Lad
Belm 8 15 Terkel
Toow 4 3 Square Up

Cheers
Brett

As I had suspected, Don’t Bet on a Wet Track………….
 

Results – Saturday July 6th

There were 11 selections on Slow or Heavy tracks today for 1 win at $3.1, as such we are leaving wet tracks.

Selections – 26 (Good or Dead Track)
Wins – 10
Win % - 38.5%
Outlay – $26
Return – $30.95
POT – 19%

Seym 1 12 Crotchet Won $1.8
Flem 1 1 Lady Lakshmi np
Newc 3 1 Incubus 3rd
Seym 2 12 Zupacharged 2nd
Flem 2 1 Ava's Delight 2nd
Newc 4 3 Houston Won $1.9
Seym 3 6 Royal Mephisto np
Mack 2 7 Pascalino np
Flem 3 2 Upbeat np
Newc 5 2 Spurlohn 2nd
Mack 4 7 Sporting Page Won $2.4
Belm 1 6 Miss Halloween np
Flem 5 3 Riziz Won $2.5
Newc 7 14 Teenager Won $6.1
Mack 5 6 Six Of Hearts Won $4.5
Belm 3 9 Smoko Won $1.4
Newc 9 10 Sergeant At Arms np
Mack 7 1 Prussian Secret 3rd
Belm 4 7 Malaika 3rd
Newc 10 5 School Of Turin Won $5.5
Seym 9 10 Indexes 3rd
Belm 6 3 Northpace Won $2.9
Belm 7 1 Summah's Touch Won $2.0
Toow 3 7 Leprechaun Lad np
Belm 8 15 Terkel np
Toow 4 3 Square Up np

Giday Brett, nice work with this thread mate. Those 2 sets of free ratings you are using are better suited to a dry track, then?

Cheers LG

Thanks LG,

From my experience with the ratings they are a lot more inconsistent on wet tracks. I have used them in other systems and wet tracks have always stumped me with them.

Am still on the look out for a set of ratings that maintain there effectiveness in the wet.

So it'll be dry until something proves me wrong.

Cheers

Brett

Selections – Sunday July 7th
 

Synthetic and Dirt tracks – I am reviewing as to whether these tracks produce inconsistent results similar to slow/heavy tracks as it relates to the ratings I am using. As it stands we have had 2 bets (at Toowoomba) for a 4th beaten 4.3L and a 6th beaten 5.4L. My initial thoughts are that these tracks tend to have ‘specialists’ and horses seem to either grow a leg or lose a leg when comparing their results to turf tracks.
Devo 1 11 Shirizzle 11:30 (Synthetic)
Devo 2 12 Hoop 12:05 (Synthetic)
Morn 2 4 It's Unstoppable 12:35
Devo 3 12 Usain Dancer 12:40 (Synthetic)
Canb 1 1 Hosier Lane 12:45 (Synthetic)
Town 1 7 Pachamama 12:50
Port A 2 5 Lucky Sunday 13:05 (Dirt)
Morn 3 1 Balytska 13:10
Devo 4 5 Wanaea 13:15 (Synthetic)
Port A 3 2 Slippery Ninja 13:40 (Dirt)
Devo 5 6 Miss Middleton 13:50 (Synthetic)
Canb 3 12 Our Penny Girl 13:55 (Synthetic)
Town 3 2 Rhythm 'n' Rap 14:00
Port A 4 1 Sophisticated Lass 14:15 (Dirt)
Morn 5 9 Zaman 14:23
Devo 6 3 Difrent 14:27 (Synthetic)
Canb 4 2 Astronomer 14:31 (Synthetic)
Port A 5 1 Saturday's Child 14:50 (Dirt)
Morn 6 2 Mayan Prophecy 14:58
Devo 7 7 The Welshman 15:04 (Synthetic)
Canb 5 8 Doubtful Miss 15:08 (Synthetic)
Town 5 5 Strato Mostro 15:12
Town 6 2 Jabiru Dreaming 15:50
Port A 7 1 Elldami 16:05 (Dirt)
Kalg 3 1 Bells Victory 16:09
Devo 9 7 Makes Cents 16:17 (Synthetic)
Canb 7 1 Diamondsinthenight 16:21 (Synthetic)
Kalg 4 2 Comanche Kid 16:45
Kalg 5 1 Foo Foo The Snoo 17:40
Kalg 7 6 Holder 18:30

Apologies - I placed the Mornington selections up but it is a Slow 6.

Don't be too concerned with avoiding wet tracks Brett if the track is an improving one, it's the deteriorating wet tracks that I find are the ones that throw up the rough results.

Good luck with your idea.

Results – Sunday July 7th
 

Only Bet on a Turf Tracks………….

There were 18 selections on synthetic or dirt tracks today for 4 win at $8.3. If we add the 2 from Toowoomba last night that’s 20 selections for a loss of 11.7 units and as such we are only using turf tracks rated good or dead.

Today's Results
Town 1 7 Pachamama Won $3.4
Town 3 2 Rhythm 'n' Rap 2nd
Town 5 5 Strato Mostro Won $1.9
Town 6 2 Jabiru Dreaming 3rd
Kalg 3 1 Bells Victory Won $3.9
Kalg 4 2 Comanche Kid 2nd
Kalg 5 1 Foo Foo The Snoo np
Kalg 7 6 Holder np

Daily Results
Selections – 8
Wins – 3
Win % - 37.5%
Outlay – $8.00
Return – $9.20
POT - 15.0%

Overall Results
Selections – 34
Wins – 13
Win % - 38.2%
Outlay – 34
Return – 40.15
POT - 18.1%

Next Selection - Wednesday
 

Hi All,

There are only 2 provincial meetings run on turf over the next 2 days and they are at the Sunshine Coast and Kembla Grange. Both would appear to be set to be run on wet tracks so we'll focus on Wednesday.

Cheers

Brett

Selections – Wednesday July 10th
 

Be aware that it is raining in Brisbane at present and has for most of the morning. Was a Dead 5 but will need to keep a close eye on it. The 3 selections will be a bet unless it moves into the Slow range.

Eag F 3 2 Empress Eugenie
Eag F 4 3 Kainji Rock
Eag F 9 2 Pure Whisper
Belm 2 1 Ain't Bad
Belm 3 1 Profound Effect
Belm 6 1 Park Lane
Belm 7 2 Hans Up
Belm 9 3 Strictly Boardroom

Results – Wednesday July 10th
 

As I highlighted (because I got stuck in it walking to work!), the Eagle Farm track was downgraded so we did not bet there today.
Belm 2 1 Ain't Bad np
Belm 3 1 Profound Effect 2nd
Belm 6 1 Park Lane Won $6.5
Belm 7 2 Hans Up Won $2.2
Belm 9 3 Strictly Boardroom Won $4.3

Daily Results
Selections – 5
Wins – 3
Win % - 60.0%
Outlay – $5.00
Return – $13.00
POT - 160.0%

Overall Results
Selections – 39
Wins – 16
Win % - 41.0%
Outlay – 39
Return – 53.15
POT - 36.3%

Very nice Brett. Good stuff.

Thanks TO..............

Been terrified that the Forum Curse will hit home............

The missus keeps looking at me strangely when I sit at the computer with garlic cloves around my neck, a stake in one hand, a voodoo doll of Beadman in Cerise, and a Mexican shaker with the hair of Sky Cuddle (my first $50 plus winner) on it..........

And who said superstition can't defeat all our racing demons!!!!!

I feel like I should have posted this on Marks post!

Cheers

Brett

BRAVO!!
 

Fantastic post Brett V.02!!

You're a man of my own heart.

Keep the winners (and the comedy) ROLLING!! :D

Well done Brett, also liked the comedy :D

I have a feeling he's not kidding.
.
.
.
.
:eek:
:D

Selections – Thursday July 11th
 

Rock 3 5 You Done It Again
Nort 1 9 More Magic
Nort 2 3 Hudson River
Nort 3 1 Storm Raider
Nort 4 5 Vesna's Dream
Nort 5 8 Aloha Miss

HiBrett

The pre post market i looked at comes up with these as pre post favourites so i guess depends on which pre post market you use.

Rock 3 5 You Done It Again
Nort 1 1 Zee Dribbler
Nort 2 3 Hudson River
Nort 3 1 Storm Raider
Nort 4 2 Front Seat
Nort 5 8 Aloha Miss

Regards
ubetido

Hi ubet,

I use 2 different pre-post markets and 2 different sets of ratings.

Cheers

Brett

Hi Brett

No problem thanks i did miss that.

Results – Thursday July 11th
 

Nort 1 9** More Magic np
Nort 2 3** Hudson River 3rd
Nort 3 1** Storm Raider Won $2.3
Nort 4 5** Vesna's Dream np
Nort 5 8** Aloha Miss 3rd

Daily Results
Selections – 5
Wins – 1
Win % - 20.0%
Outlay – $5.00
Return – $2.30
POT - -54.0%

Overall Results
Selections – 44
Wins – 17
Win % - 38.6%
Outlay – 44
Return – 55.45
POT - 26.0%

Geelong Synthetic, Ipswich Heavy 8, and 2 country meetings means no bets tomorrow.

We'll be back Saturday

Selections – Saturday July 13th
 

Due to the uncertainty of track conditions everywhere today I will post selections in 2 categories, those listed as dead and those listed as slow. For the purpose of the system bets we will only bet if the race starts on a Dead 5 or better

Dead
Caul 1 5 Miss Steele
Caul 2 1 Octavia
Caul 3 1 Serene Star
Caul 4 3 Space
Caul 5 9 Rock Princess
Caul 6 10 Mrs Onassis
Gold C 2 3 Love Stories
Gold C 6 3 Sigmund
Gold C 7 3 Nobody's Boy
Belm 1 1 Coruscation
Belm 2 3 Magnifisio
Belm 3 2 Operational
Belm 4 4 Mr Utopia
Belm 5 7 Dark Delight
Belm 6 6 I See Luck
Belm 8 7 Young Lionel

Slow
Laun 1 2 Havana Stash
Laun 3 12 Shirizzle
War F 1 1 Pitcrew
War F 2 4 Short Shift
War F 3 1 Titbit
War F 5 1 Gullible
War F 6 6 Sacred Flyer
War F 7 7 Knead The Dough
War F 8 18 Emblems
Doom 1 4 Cape Kidnappers
Doom 6 1 Bribie
Doom 7 9 Lucky Hussler
Newc 1 1 Farm Boy
Newc 4 10 Scorpion Prince

Results – Saturday July 13th
 

No changes to the track conditions that mattered for us so it was Caulfield, Gold Coast and Belmont.

Belm 1 1 Coruscation Won $2.7
Belm 2 3 Magnifisio Won $1.7
Belm 3 2 Operational np
Belm 4 4 Mr Utopia Won $2.3
Belm 5 7 Dark Delight Won $1.5
Belm 6 6 I See Luck 3rd
Belm 8 7 Young Lionel np
Caul 1 5 Miss Steele np
Caul 2 1 Octavia 2nd
Caul 3 1 Serene Star 2nd
Caul 4 3 Space np
Caul 5 9 Rock Princess Won $5.8
Caul 6 10 Mrs Onassis np
Gold C 2 3 Love Stories 2nd
Gold C 6 3 Sigmund np
Gold C 7 3 Nobody's Boy np

Daily Results
Selections – 16
Wins – 5
Win % - 31.3%
Outlay – $16.00
Return – $14.00
POT - -12.5%


Overall Results
Selections – 60
Wins – 22
Win % - 36.7%
Outlay – 60
Return – 69.45
POT - 15.8%

Selections – Sunday July 14th
 

Kalg 1 2 Enemy Lines
Kalg 2 7 Fair Achiever
Kalg 3 4 Uma Park

IDEA?
 

Hi Brett V.02,

You're still in profit which is a beautiful thing!!

I had a thought you might be able to integrate one of the great Garyf's techniques, by sifting through the results and only betting in races where the fav was >=$3.

The strike rate will drop a tad but profitability?

Anyway mate,

Have a blinder of a Sunday!

Results – Sunday July 14th
 

Kalg 1 2** Enemy Lines np
Kalg 2 7** Fair Achiever Won $2.5
Kalg 3 4** Uma Park np

Hi The Schmile,

That's a great idea. Was also going to have a look back to see if any other filters can be applied to the selections we have already had.

Will do a bit of CSI work and get the ball rolling as to approaches, but the price cut off is a great idea.

Cheers

Brett

Nice one Brett V.02
 

I'll be interested to see your findings.

Have a lovely evening!

Filters – A Path to ‘The Edge’
 

Hi All,

I have been thinking of filters and when The Schmile raised the issue, I thought it’s a perfect time to have a look. But it is a question I have been wrestling with for years now. Are filters a good or bad thing? Are these little tweaks a way to sharpen our selection strategy, driving us towards that punting “Edge” we all so desperately search for, or are they in fact a way that punters can cushion the psychological blow that we are destined to suffer when the hours and hours of work we put in to system construction, application and refinement still, eventually, push us over the “Edge” sending another system in the abyss. I have read on many different threads here and the debate rages on and probably will for eternity.

To put this into perspective, when I started looking at systems I ended up purchasing a commercial tool to help test systems and find future selections. I was like a kid at Christmas, as I spent hour after hour, day after day, pumping new filters in. And I still can see the smile on my face after the system test was run and the magic profit was achieved. I mean, a system test of 2 years which showed a profit………. It will surely continue. I can also remember the shock on my face when this profitable system was tossed in the bin 6 months later when it had shown results nothing like those of the test.

Back-fitting - I was under the impression that was part of a bra fitting that the missus has (and uses to justify spending 100’s of dollars on the stuff – give me my $2 Target specials)

Chi squared – I thought that was the 2 4 Tuesday special down at the local Thai restaurant

When I look back at some of these system filters, I shudder now. Things like:-

Race Distance – 1249 – 1651
Win % - 23%-46%
Place % - 51%-99%
Victorian Provincial and Country meetings on Tuesday, Thursday, Sunday

And worst of all, I was guilty of purchasing some of these systems, thinking that these people smarter than me, must be on the right track. I wish I could sit this bright eyed punting newbie down, put my arm around his shoulder and then slap him as hard as I can in the back of the head while screaming at him, if the system was making money, why would the bloke be selling it and not living on an Island somewhere.

I am not anti-filter. Far from it. But I am very interested to see what others think.

I will look at filters for this system, justify why I think we should use it or leave it and the stand back as the idea is attacked and defended by all in sundry. Friendships will be tested, stretched, destroy and rekindled. And when the dust settles, hopefully we have a nicely refined system that keeps ticking along.

Cheers

Brett

Conundrum:

A logical assumption that defies resolution, a difficult and intricate problem!

RP

Backfitting a system with ANY database is a total waste of time as the conditions being tested can Never replicate the millions of little things that occurred when the past race was run.
The vendors of these products will defend their businesses to the hilt I expect but LOGICALLY examine what I have just written.

My advice.Dont waste your money.

As you,ve found past results never live up to future predictions.

Cheers
darky

Backfitting i will say properly wont work at all , but sorting things like >10% win and 30% place and 2 wins or more, to try and narrow done the horses and the fields to find the better horses and races may be of help the bookies are so good at there job there cant be that many areas of profit left. It may be best used to find the areas that are really bad % loss wise over the long term and dont go there to start with and even that would be hard just ask the layers. It needs to have reason for me so i look for the better horses in the better races metro and try to find the horse or horses that are in or seem to be in with a real chance - first 4 in my ratings while i may win outside there it doesnt make that much differnce to my betting as it doesnt rely on the longshot.

For The Testing Process
 

I will include the selections I had before I went ‘live’. I am aware that there are only 85 selections and as such, the sample size is very (too) small.

Race Filters 1 – Exclude Maidens
 

Thinking –

As part of this system is based on ratings, and the thinking behind ratings is that the more data you can gather, the more accurate the ratings will be, then maiden ratings will be less accurate and produce results that are poorer

Results –

Non-Maiden
Selections – 62
Wins – 23
Win % - 37.1%
Outlay – $62.00
Return – $75.80
POT - 22.3%

Maiden
Selections – 23
Wins – 9
Win % - 39.1%
Outlay – $23.00
Return – $31.00
POT - 34.8%

Justification –
As the ratings are free from the internet, I am unaware what data is used to come to the ratings. This may also explain why some of the other ratings performed so poorly. As the results show, there is very little difference between the 2 sets of data and as such, I would not use this filter in this particular case.

On the subject of ratings i.e.Price

Where do the on course bookmakers get their ratings from? Is it a closed door service? They frame their market based on information supplied, from where?

RP

Horse Filter 1 – Starting Price
 

Thinking –

The top 4 in the market historically produce a lot of winners.

Results –

SP Under $3
Selections – 36
Wins – 20
Win % - 55.6%
Outlay – $36.00
Return – $46.20
POT - 28.3%

SP $3-$4.9
Selections – 33
Wins – 10
Win % - 30.3%
Outlay – $33.00
Return – $48.30
POT - 46.4%

SP $5 and Over
Selections – 16
Wins – 2
Win % - 12.5%
Outlay – $16.00
Return – $12.30
POT - -23.1%

Justification –

I will admit this is one filter I do already have an opinion on and use. I tend to operate using either first or 2nd favourites. I very rarely bet on a horse with and SP over $5. This is for 2 reasons. First of all, my personality and punting mind set struggles with long losing streaks. My nerves and patience struggle to deal with it. I have always taken the view that the horses I back under $3 are for my psyche, and the horses over $3 are for my bank. In saying that, I know a lot of people who regularly back winners at any old odds and have been doing it for a long while. I'm also aware of the fact that 2 or 3 winners at $5+ would realign their overall results and 16 selections are not very many. When using this system, I do use the exclude SP $5 filter.

The two most common would be above tab no 7 or tab no 5 and above and placed last start also broken into 1,2 or 1,2 3 combos or 1,2,3 ,4 last start

or beaten lengths last start 2 l under 1600 and 3l a 1600 and above ???

To let the tab no, sort class, bit rough but seems to work and try to see if the horse is in form rough again but not with out merit.

A nother couple are just the place strike rate if you are in the shorter end try 45% or greater and number of starts for the horse or all horses in the race as in must all horses must have had 3 starts min so less chance of a suprises.

Another lot is to break them up into ages 2 , 3 ,and 4,5,6 and maybe 7 year olds, and older into another lot cut of should be over 10 years ???