Here,s the Ticket.
 

Centered Racing And Programming.

Daily

TAB 1

Won LS (in current campaign)


BP 1 -8

1st or 2nd Fav at jump.

Metrop.
W.Farm
R 1 H 1
Pitcrew

Caulf
R 7 H 1
Hai Lil

Doomben
R 8 H 1Discreet

Morphetville
R 6 H 1
Onpicalo

WHAT ODDS THIS ONE DARKY
 

Odds on Rated- Don Scott racing and sports.

Sat only B,M,S,A

No 2,3, year old races

I like it.
I like a thinking punter.
Why the Age restriction.?

Re 2 Y0,s

I knew a very big bettor back in the 80,s who used this .

2YO
Top Wt
Fav
Won LS
Same Distance
Same Track conditions.

I note the same jockey (N Rawiller) is riding Pitcrew.

Wt is up 2 kg from LS.

TC Heavy LS Forecast slow tomorrow.

12 Days break from LS

A moral ???
Odds On horses Win 58 % but lose 42%

Is it worth the risk ? Depends on your pychological make up.

I want $2

It just dosnt seem to work as well on 2,3,old races still through good winners but lots of short losers i didnt back them just dont bet in those races.

When i did it not many bets but very high strike rate and big profits over 6 months.

Why did i stop i dont like to rely on anyone else and if they changed somthing you would never no so properly somthing not to risk big money on but worth a bank and compound.

But if i had pick somthing that would be it.

I also used IAS and only first 4 favs.

The shorter -the more they won - but got a few $6 and $8 winners the pot was massive if you could wait for the bets - i bet on all track cons - but properly better to stay on good / dead ???

In my own betting I do bet the wet tracks - dead - slow - heavy but found on these TC it was a dead loss unless I got a Min $3.

On Good TC will take any price.

I currently stake 1/4 Kelly to 4 % of the bank.

I must say though that betting 1.1 % of the bank shows far higher profits at this stage.

I once remember "Be Careful "doing a comparison on Staking.
I should look it up.

Can you venture your version of this, old boy?

Cheers LG

Bet size
 

I still use the standerd $2000 bank bet to take $100 this gives a run of outs at $2.00 40 bets and at $5.00 a run of out of 100, it should be $2500 for a worst case job.

I take it kelly is having more on if bigger than you rated price, i do bet to rated price still but just bet all slections, unders or not if i get $7.00 my $5.00 rate dall the better.

Hi LG,

Based on Danny O.sullivan Staking thread on www.trb.com.au

$16,000 Starting Bank.

4 % = takeout per race $640

Fixed Price $3.20

Divide $640 by 3.2 = Stake $200

Further Examples

Takeout $640 /Price $2.25 Bet $284
etc etc.

LLR 16 as per Pauls prediction (See R2W)

Level Stakes @ 1.1 % of bank = $176.

Frankly I think "Becareful" was spot on.(See old posts.)

I will say this as its been my experience so far over the 577 actual bets if you confine bets to Minimum $3 you increase the profits substantially.

That applies to all track conditions.

Not that much diffrent but yours is slightly more aggrissive.

Betting, staking when i do my sums level stakes or betting to price the POT stays about the same - if i were to just level stake 1 to 50 bank i would make more money but not be as safe and the ups and downs would be bigger.

I found on wet track i made money but make far more on the good / dead POT wise with a higher strike rate so why take the risk - but i guess your $3.00 idea would save money.

I find betting to price down to $2.00 works on the odd time i get one rated odds on i just back it as if its $2.00 the POT seems to stay the same untill i get away from the fav then it increases but a bad run in that area could bring it back into the norm.

I also found with the Don scott rated odds on sat that betting to price ,not his (But anyone could just use IAS prices and bet to those) worked well and smothed things out.

Imagine if you will taking WF R 1 Pitcrew to take out $640 @ $1.40 (which I expect this horse to be) and outlaying $457.
My old heart couldn,t take it and remember it still has a 42 % chance of losing.

Thats why i decided to cut of at 1-1 for bet size , but my bet would be on a $16,000 bank $400 or close $560 if i bet to price, would not bother me nor would the short price the 2y old race does but from a stats point of view those type of bets should make money not enough for for me but they should win money over all.

$2.15 is a luxury price

Pitcrew
 

I dont know about the stats on, odds on two and 3 year olds in the wet, but you have given me an intrest in this one ,slow 6 now out to $2.20 from $1.70 so i suppose its not the odds on stats now.

Your a winner, that race lasted longer than most races, but money in the bank now.

Yep.
It a bit rough this time of year when a man has to go to Broome to have a stress free day.

Results for System

Wf Won $2.25
Doomb 3rd $2.10
Morph Won $2.50
Caulf 3rd $3.10 (BP 12 but 4 scratchings so Ok

Another Goldmine ?