dutching
 

can someone remind me of the maths involved backing 2 horses, 1 is the main pick and the other is just a stake saver for both, so not Dutching perse' ?

Well, not sure if there's another way, but this is pretty much it I think when you have a main pick and a saver.

How much you bet on the saver = how much you're willing to bet overall divided by the saver horse's price. Then what ever is left over out of the total amount is all put on the main pick.

So, for example.... 2 horses, main pick @ $3, saver @ $5, willing to spend $50, You would have $10 on the saver to get $50 and that leaves $40 to bet on your main pick to get back $120.

Personally, I would actually want to get a bit more back on the "saver". Seems a bit annoying to win and yet just get your money back. ;)

.....alternatively, using the above example, if the $5 horse was your main pick and the $3 horse was your saver, then you would have $17 on the saver to get back $51 and that would leave you with $33 to put on the main pick to get back $165.

Thanks sportz, yeah maybe there isn't a formula, as I have a fixed amount to bet on the no1 pick (varies with each bet) eg. say I have an amount to bet of $21 @ fixed odds of say 6-1, then my saver is to recover that $21 + the stake on the saver (should the saver win that is) if nether wins then the next bet is to a fixed amount + the losses on previous race etc. Now don't everyone start screaming about the dangers/stupidity of chasing losses, I know all that this is a plan full of safety measures which can only lose a small initial amount, but builds up from winnings only (hoping) for that golden run!

http://crowncity.com/speedplus/

This site goes into detail.

partypooper, if you can give a more precise example then I could do something up in excel i'm sure of it.

i.e. give an example of say a 3 race sequence where the first 2 races both horses lost and i'll do up a spreadsheet that will calculate what your after.

Is the following essentially what your after? also what determines how much is placed on your #1 pick?

Race 1:
$10 to be placed on Horse 1 @ $6.50
Horse 2 needs to recover own stake and $10 @ odds of $4.10
$3.23 placed on Horse 2

If both above lose,

Race 2:
$12 to be placed on Horse 1 @ $5.80
Horse 2 needs to recover own stake, $12 from Horse 1 and $13.23 from previous race @ odds of $4.30
$7.65 placed on Horse 2

If both above lose,

Race 3:
$11 to be placed on Horse 1 @ $5.20
Horse 2 needs to recover own stake, $11 from Horse 1, $13.23 from Race 1, $19.65 from Race 2 @ odds of $5.60
$9.54 placed on Horse 2

Assume that one of the horses wins Race 3, your either break even after 3 races or in profit, Assuming you take into account commission if on BF as well.

Is that example essentially what your after?

EDIT: All odds are just an example, essentially the odds don't matter because the equation takes them into account, all that really matters is your staking on Horse 1 and the Odds of each horse in each race.

Thanks for hat Puntz, I'll have to study that , the old grey matter not as quick as it used to be you know!

evajb001 Thats great just about exactly what I was after, gets slightly more complicated in that I have a fixed aim to win each race i.e. Aim to win say $20 per race, so race 1 main pick is@ $5 , saver pick is@ say, $3, both lose , race 2 ATW is now $40 + losses on race 1 (main pick say $6) and the saver on pick 2 @say, $4 etc etc.

What I need is the formula (if there is one) to work out the stakes.

I've probably made that sound much more complicated, I'm famous for that.

partypooper, I understand what your after just not 100% sure its possible or not as easy to calculate as I may be capable of. The issue lies in that both the stakes would then be dependant on each other somewhat. For example I can make it so that on Horse 1 your profit is $20 and thats fine, it would just mean that you'd have to take your stake on Horse 2 away from that which would reduce the profit below your $20 mark. The problem with then increasing the stake of horse 1 to cover that loss on horse 2, is that you then have to increase the stake on horse 2 to break even, and then your going around in circles. The following is the best I think you can achieve:

Race 1:
Horse 1: Stake $3.64 @ $6.50 to make $20 profit
Horse 2: Stake $1.17 @ $4.10 to break even
If Horse 1 wins total profit is $18.83, If Horse 2 wins you break even, If neither Horse wins go to Race 2

Race 2:
Horse 1: Stake $9.34 @ $5.80 to make $40 profit
Horse 2: Stake $4.29 @ $4.30 to break even
If Horse 1 wins total profit is $35.71 across all bets to date, If Horse 2 wins you break even, If neither Horse wins go to Race 3

Race 3:
Horse 1: Stake $18.67 @ $5.20 to make $60 profit
Horse 2: Stake $8.07 @ $5.60 to break even
If Horse 1 wins total profit is $51.93 across all bets to date, If Horse 2 wins you break even

Thats about as good as i'm aware to be able to get it? Hope that helps? If thats what your after let me know and I'll do up a spreadsheet

evajb001 Yes I agree, that sounds as close as we can get so I'll settle for that. The plot thickens now though, what I'm thinking is either to always make the higher pre post price the no1 pick, or the other way round or split by some other means.

We now get into deeper water i.e. do we make the pre-post price the minimum accepted or no bet (basically using the PP as a rated price) or PP+a given % say 20% or no bet........

partypooper, the bet or no bet part is totally up to you as it depends on what system/approach your taking with your selections and whether they meet your criteria that provides an ongoing profit.

How many races in a row do you think you'll need? I'd assume that by the time you reach the 5th race your stakes will be getting pretty high.

Also how do you progressively increase your desired profit? I just assumed that you increased it by $20 each race however you may double it each race, i.e. $20, $40, $80, $160 etc etc although doing it this way will just increase your staking even further.

I'll see if I can do something up for you and post it here, then you can have a play with it.

partypooper,

Give the attached a try, only manipulate the blue coloured areas and everything else should automatically updated. Pretty basic spreadsheet, let me know if you have any problems or questions. You can see how its worked out from the equations too so that you could adapt if needed.

evajb001 I haven't quite got the details worked out yet, but the basic plan is to use a starting bank, and double the Target per race as the bank doubles, my particular method of selection here like most has long winning runs sometimes, obviously with the opposite sometimes, the idea is to sacrifice some banks in order to hit the winning run, make hay while the sun shines so to speak. for example there was one run that x the bank by 20 but had sacrificed 8 previous banks, this was a dry run just splitting the stake over the 2 selections per race, but as you know this method runs up some pretty hefty banks, so a stop loss has to be in place. I'm sure you get the drift!

Any chance you could repost in '.xls' format? Got an ancient version of excel running here, foot pedal etc

Cheers LG

As attached your lordship

Another calculator

Hi All,

You could use the Dutch Book Calculator which is free on ozracetools. It allows you to save on any horse and enter amounts for bet, profit or return.

Very into dutching of late.

Found a post by Bhagwan recently with an excellent staking plan.

Post: http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...2562&postcount=

Thread: http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...33&page=1&pp=10

update, Re:


At that time I was testing, was before Unitab went Flash.
The web imports were working and I just nearly got to end of the line in Excel to fine tune a hedge calculator.
Then, like a flash, Flash web pages messed up the process, so I took a break.

But the theory still stands and testing will resume soon again.
The method of selection I use for test and developments, due to simplicity is Descending favs. Not that it's THE method, it's one of them.


So, to design a hedge calculator from scratch using Excel becomes easier with a bit of practice.
round-up and round-down has to be considered also at the end of the unit allocation amounts.

Default Target can be set at 25
Bet amount limit is a percent of 80, Variable
Runners, 3 ( personal choice )

25 and 80 means that if your cost of the bet exceeds 20 units, consider a no-bet. It's because one of your selections is paying low.
If you like 1.5 favs, then consider 120 % instead of 80
It's like shopping, Value.
My personal rule is, why bet more than the target profit, lets say bet limit is set to 150% of a 25 profit target. I think that equates to 25 +12.50 = 37.50 bet cost to make 25 profit. Where is the Value in that? Why give in?

Same if your Target is 100, the bet limit would be 80% ( 80 units)
But if it's a loss chasing strategy, lets say Bet 1 loses and the cost of that bet was 15 to make a profit of 25, ( good Value)
So the next New Target is 15 + your default of 25 = 40
The bet limit is still 80 Max of 40

Some may argue the next point.

IF the 2nd bet to the 3rd suitable bet has had 5 no-bet races in between, you raise the target by 1 for each no bet race. ( we are assuming fully automated systems here that scan every race on the card, and assuming one waits for the PAYING results before the next bet after a bet-race, Maximum wait can be a Variable in minutes.


On average, a 9 losing streak will need a 2500 bank.
Question is, does your selection method do 9 consecutive losses often?

It gets more complex in it's strategy if one was not playing fixed odds, you have to take into account the possible unders within the hedge's unit allocation amount calculation.

And if chasing bigger amounts,( at around the 5th loss), then Win Pool amounts will be another headache, but can be factored into it all.

So have a tried and tested selection method with average of 3- 4 consecutive losses.

When the bank reaches let's say 5000, raise the Default Target to 30, conservatively.


Why so many Variables?
Confuse the TAB so no strategy is the same or as usual they'll plug it.

evajb001

That example you asked for: this is actual selections for today.

bet 1 H1 6.10 Lost H2 8.50 Lost
bet 2 H1 8.30 Lost H2 9.00 Lost
bet 3 H1 5.10 Lost H2 2.80 Lost
bet 4 H1 7.40 Lost H2 2.40 Lost
bet 5 H1 2.10 Won H2 7.10 Lost
bet 6 H1 6.30 Won H2 5.20 Lost
bet 7 H1 5.50 Won H2 10.00 Lost
bet 8 H1 18.20 Lost H2 3.70 Lost

At this stage we carry forward the Target to bet no 1 tomorrow. Thanks again for your interest and same to all of course.

Cheers mate, nearly missed your post!

Looks like a nice little 'perpetual profits staking machine', evajb.
Might use it to target 5% bank as per an old post I dig up from garyf earlier.

LG