RaceCensus
 

A new thread, please keep all posts relevant.

Another good day for the RaceCensus systems!

FITSPEED:

ALICE SPRINGS 

R1 RAPID CANNY WON  3.30 PL  1.60

HALIDON 

R7 EMBELISE 2ND       PL  1.50



Win Strike Rate: 50.0%

Place Strike Rate: 100.0%

Average Win Dividend  : $3.30

Average Place Dividend  : $1.55



                 WIN      PLACE

Races Bet:       2         2

Races Won:       1         2

S.R.:       50.0%    100.0%

Outlay:       2.00      2.00

Return:       3.30      3.10

Profit :        1.30      1.10

P.O.T. :      65.0%     55.0%

This brings the total for September:

                 WIN      PLACE

Races Bet:      19        19

Races Won:       7        15

S.R.:      35.00%     75.00%

Outlay:      20.00     20.00

Return   :      25.70     28.40

Profit :       5.70      8.40

P.O.T. :      28.50%     42.00%

Average Win Dividend: 3.67

Average Place Dividend: 1.89

Another massive day for the RaceCensus Systems:

NEWCASTLE
R 6 #12 SUADELA WON $4.10 PL $2.00
GOLD COAST
R 6 # 1 A TAD APART WON $5.60 PL $1.90
R 3 # 1 ELIAZAR 3RD PL $1.30
EAGLE FARM
R 1 # 1 BOREHOLE WON $4.50 PL $1.70
R 1 # 1 BOREHOLE WON $4.50 PL $1.70 (double qualifier)
R 1 # 1 BOREHOLE WON $4.50 PL $1.70 (triple qualifier)
BELMONT PARK
R 8 # 7 THE ALLEGED


Average Win Dividend: $4.64
Average Place Dividend: $1.72
Win S/R: 71.40%
Place S/R: 85.70%

                WIN      PLACE

Outlay:       $7.00      $7.00

Return:       $23.20     $10.30

Profit:      $16.20      $3.30

P.O.T.:      231.40%     47.10%

*Note only Tattsbet dividends were used, returns would have greatly increased using best tote, Betfair SP etc.

If you would so kind as to report to Bletchley Park today at 1500 hrs, Mr Prince - there is an interesting chap there I would like you to meet.


Cheers LG

Will do LG ;)

The RaceCensus systems finished September with a profit.
Detailed below are the summary statistics and an important highlight of the importance of obtaining the best price, or at least better than a single tote price.

September:

                      WIN      PLACE

Races Bet:            98        98

Races Won:            31        62

Strike Rate:          31.00%     62.00%

Outlay:             $100.00    $100.00

Return:            $107.54     $99.78

Profit:               $7.54     $-0.22

P.O.T.:                7.50%     -0.20%

Average Dividend:     $3.47      $1.61

Using Best Tote for these selections returned $112.84
Using Betfair SP (less commission) returned $113.29*
*Assuming full 5% commission.

Using Betfair SP returned a profit for September of 13.29 units and a POT of 13.29%.
The strike rate was similar to favourites, although many were not first favourite.
The maximum win dividend for Betfair was $6.71 (Net), meaning no double figure winners made up the profit!
The average Betfair win dividend was only $3.65 (Net).

And we kicked off October on a winning note:

02/10/2013 CANTERBURY

R 3 # 6  WIND BENDER          WON  $2.10 PL  $1.40

02/10/2013 BELMONT 

R 5 # 8  PERFECT KISS         WON  $2.30 PL  $1.40*

02/10/2013 BELMONT

R 5 # 8  PERFECT KISS         WON  $2.30 PL  $1.40**

02/10/2013 BELMONT

R 1 # 1  OUR ROAD TRADER      WON  $1.70 PL  $1.30 

R 5 # 8  PERFECT KISS         WON  $2.30 PL  $1.40***

01/10/2013 TOWNSVILLE

R 6 # 2  EUREKA DUBAI  unplaced    



Perfect Kiss was a triple selection highlighted in three of our systems.                     



October statistics:

                 WIN      PLACE

Selections:       6         6

Winners:          5         5

S.R.:        83.30%     83.30%

Outlay:       $6.00      $6.00

Return   :     $10.70      $6.90

Profit :       $4.70      $0.90

P.O.T. :      78.30%     15.00%



The October results are single tote returns only.



A video overview of RaceCensus is available by clicking the last link in my signature.

Hi CP

Great work.

One point worth noting and updating in your results/software is that from May 1 2012, Betfair's market base rate on all thoroughbred, harness and greyhound races in Australia and New Zealand increased from 5% to 6.5%. Overall, this would of course have a significant affect on the results for Betfair based dividends.

Anybody serious about their punting would not be on anywhere near the 6.5% comm, Paul.
I'm pretty sure I remember reading a quote from CP where he said that if you are on full commission you are not trying hard enough.

Thanks Paul, in that case one would certainly do better using Best Tote products.

Hi Speedy
I have to disagree. I know a number of serious punters that do not bet all that much of their turnover through Betfair. Many of these punters predominantly bet win or place only into fixed odds betting markets and prefer to use Betfair as a lying tool only.

On my calculations, using a currency rate of 1 AUD being = to 57.92 pence sterling, and assuming a 5% profit edge, the turnover required to reduce your Betfair commission rate from the current maximum of 6.5% to 5% means that you would have to be betting $69,080 each and every week without any change to your turnover. This implies a discount rate of 22% sufficient to bring you back to paying the 5% in question. To double your discount rate to 44% would require a weekly turnover of $211,000 (assuming the same 5% edge).

My point in relation to what you have raised is simply that most people would not be turning over anywhere near the required amounts to reduce their commission from 6.5% to 5% let alone more than that figure. This implies by your statement that anyone turning over less than these weekly amounts is not serious about their punting. I submit that is not correct.

Not sure a bout those figures Paul, my commission rate is currently 4.80% and there's no way I'm turning over anywhere near that amount and I don't even use Betfair every week?

Hi CP,

Let's forget turnover for a the purpose of illustrating the point. I rechecked my figures, so as to ensure that I provide only factual information. Accordingly I have copied and pasted the relevant text directly from the Betfair web site. I have assumed they have it displayed correctly.

1. Betfair charges a Commission on your net winnings on a market. Commission is calculated by multiplying your net winnings by the Market Base Rate. From this we will apply a discount;

2. The size of this discount, or your Discount Rate, is determined by the number of Betfair Points you have accrued on your account;

3. You earn Betfair Points every time you bet on a market. You will earn 1 point for every 10 pence of commission paid (if you have net winnings) or implied commission (if you have a net loss). Implied commission is calculated in exactly the same way as commission but refers to losses rather than winnings. Betfair Points are awarded equally whether you win or lose;

4. For the purpose of calculating Betfair Points your commission or implied commission on a market is rebased to British Pounds at the time of settlement. Your Discount Rate is calculated from your current Betfair Points every week. This occurs at midnight (GMT) every Sunday .....

So the way I read this is:
In order to get a Betfair commission discount you need to earn Betfair Points, which are based on your commission from net winnings or net losses in a market calculated at the same rate. Whether you win $100 or lose $100 you will earn the same number of points. Except your dollars are converted to British pounds for the purposes of the Betfair points calculation.

In order for you to have a commission rate of 4.8% (as you stated) instead of the 6.5% which is the full rate, you must accrue somewhere between 23,000 and 25,999 points PER WEEK as that designates the required 26% discount (6.5 x 0.74= 4.81).

Let's say we use 24,000 points for ease of calculation. In order to earn 24,000 points per week you need to pay 2,400 British Pounds in actual or implied commission. (24,000/10 = 2400). This is because you earn 1 point for every 10 pence of commission paid.

To achieve this based on the FULL 6.5% Market Base Rate your results will need to fall in a RANGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN Losing (net) -36,923 pounds and winning (net) 36,923 pounds (2400/0.065 = 36,923). At the current exchange to Australian Dollars that RESULT ranges somewhere between a –$62,746 and +$62,746; that's EACH WEEK in order to retain the level of discount which is eroded by the Betfair decay each week. It could be that you break even for the week; which means you paid commission on $31,373 in winnings and implied commission on $31,373 in losses.

The figures above are the resultant (Net) figures and NOT the actual turnover you would have to have in order to pay commission/implied commission on that +-$62,746 range.

It is possible that I am wrong however this comes directly from the Betfair website so I'm not sure how I can be. Perhaps it is that you are looking at your own discount rate which could be 4.8%. In this case you are paying somewhere around 6.18% in actual commission based on a market base rate of 6.5%.

The way I understand it Paul is that you must maintain a balance of between 23,000 and 25,999 points at the end of each week get the discount you describe above.

So if we say at start of a week we have 25000 points & accumulate 6000 points by betting during the week less 15% weekly decay, our balance at weeks end used to determine our discount rate for the following week is 26350 points.

Hi stugots

Yes that is correct.

Ok, I must be missing something as the example you set out requires one to generate 25000 points a week, rather than maintain at least 25000 - big difference.

Takes a bit of work but not that hard to get to 20000+points.

Hi stugots

No you have not missed anything. The wording I used "generate" was not correct. Maintain is correct, i'm agreeing with you.

Point of the posts though (see previous posts) is that the math to get to that point is as per my last post. Its not a matter of easily getting to a commission rate of 4.8% and maintaining it without significant turnover/commission generation, whether that be actual or implied commission.

So it's clear I'm not suggesting that CP doesn't have a 4.8% overall rate but simply stating what is required betting wise to reach that point and to maintain it.

Anyway if you see the need to debate it further perhaps we should transfer it to another thread as we are getting off the point of CP's initial thread. :)

Nothing to debate Paul, other than one does not need to turnover anywhere near the figures quoted in your original post to maintain a balance in excess of 20000 points.

Anyway, I am off to earn a point or 2;)

Followers of the systems that come with RaceCensus had a pretty good October. We beat the tote by a massive 27.90%, so obviously Best Tote, Betfair would have boosted the return by a fair bit.
Amazing considering the maximum win dividend was $8.00 and the average win dividend was $2.86!

We bet in a total of 94 races for the month, returning a win profit of 26.20 units @ tote price. We had a 44.70% win strike rate and a 65.60% place strike rate.

For the place, we lost 1.10% using one tote dividends - or 1.10 units lost.

For September and October combined the systems produced 33.74 units profit at tote prices or 17.40% POT betting in 192 races.

RaceCensus systems have been deliberately devised with consistency in mind. We don't target longshots, we target fancied horses, which meet certain criteria of speed, fitness, form and edge. This ensures that users enduring a bad run will bounce back very quickly into profit.

Greater returns are achievable using Best Tote, Betfair etc.

Flemington Race 6 Fontelina might be worth a wager.

RaceCensus systems that come with the database have got off to a flying start this month...



*Tattsbet dividends used.

Unfortunately Fontelina finished 4th, will post more daily specials for major race days.

The strength of a system and the non reliance on longshots can often be highlighted by the place performance in relation to the win performance. If there is a gap between the two, larger than the expected norm, then chances are the system relies on a chaos result to get it into profit. Here is the place performance of the RaceCensus systems, for November.



This highlights the consistency of the win results and the confidence that the performance will continue within the scope of past results.

*Tattsbet dividends used.

Warwick Farm R7 No. 8 Sheza Roughie qualifies in two systems tomorrow.

RaceCensus systems that come with the database still in profit for this month...



*Tattsbet dividends used.

Doomben R 8 #3 SMAKATUS qualifies in two systems today

To all subscribers...
Due to the unfortunate turn of events with the data supplier, I've had to completely re hand code the form files from a different provider.
This means parsing all the files and checking that the parsing is true and correct in every way, to ensure the integrity or the database.

Therefore, the missing November update has been skipped.

The good news is that there will be an update in the first week of the New Year, that will include ALL missing data including November.

I sincerely apologise to all clients, however, due to the actions of the data supplier which were misleading and left most clients out of pocket, it was really out of my control.

All clients will have an extra three months added to their subscriptions.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.

Working on the final update, should be done in the next two days.

Ever thought of setting your own telco up? (half tongue in cheek)

CPC = Chrome Prince Communications? Might be a breath of fresh air to sign up with one that tells the truth about events and makes generous gestures of goodwill when things don't go to plan.

Have a good year mate.

Cheers LG

PS 'Connecting is a breeze with CPC'. Take it to the outback / regionals - connect up australia. Outsource via Telstra but do what they can't - don't.. generate positive word of mouth! More coffee required here.. obviously!

Chrome, ignore that last post mate(off topic).

LG

have you got your data sorted yet.
sounds like you were dragged down by cyberhorse

cheers and good luck

All sorted now Aussie :D