five best filters
 

Hi all
Like most on here i am trying to develop a system that is profitable..from reading this forum i have learnt much and am always impressed with the ideas shared.I am testing a system that is in profit at level stakes after 2 months ,but it is slow going.i am experimenting with different filters and would love some ideas.what would be your top five filters?

mark

Hi maark,

Not willing to give you my own top 5 but for me the most important is to use the combined betting intelligence that the market offers. In other words my approach in respect of this filter is to understand the market, isolate its weaknesses and exploit those advantages.

In the meantime we have written an article on our website that is titled:

Building a system, the gateway to long term profits. I suggest that you have a read of that as it might provide you with some ideas. You need to be a member of our website however that is FREE.

www.ratings2win.com.au


I wish you all the best in your quest.

When you say slow going, explain a bit more, have you worked out you SR and P.O.T, how about your average price, and average bets per week, this can tell us a lot of how things are going.

It is a place betting system..approx 50% strike rate..POT 16%..about 25 bets a week..average price $2.33...I dont mind less bets,just trying to get the strike rate up..
Filters at the moment:
I am not betting on slow or heavy tracks.
only bet on races between 1000 and 2000 m.
min 8,max 15 runners.
dont bet on last race

What is your reasoning for wanting a better SR?

The reason I ask is 25 bets a week is a reasonable number of bets compared to a lot of systems that get tossed around. Even with just a $500 bankroll if you turned that over once a fortnight (i.e. just $10 bets) with a 16% pot your addidn't $80 to your bankroll each fortnight. Obviously thats over simplified due to losing runs etc but you catch my drift.

The only reason i'd want to improve that SR is if you can't handle mentally the losing runs that 50% SR brings, otherwise i'm not sure why you'd want to change something that sounds solid already.

Anyway thats just my POV

I would take profit over strike rate anytime. Adding a filter that improves profit usually means losing some horses that come in, in this case placed but also cutting out many losers. I would not mind losing a $2.00 shot for example if I also lost say 4 horses that were unplaced. If you get my drift. I only use one or two filters on my current systems as it tends to get too restrictive with more in my opinion, unless you are using a points rating for each filter.

Cheers

There has been some good advice here and personally i don't think you need to change anything, SR is not exactly high for a place system but if you are ok with that then fine, the POT is good and as for number of bets, well i find those that seek more than they have are sometimes for prone to be after action rather then profit.

If you are after bigger returns to create a second income well the only choice is a big enough bankroll to make more profit rather than more bets.

Thanks all for the advice.i still have lots to learn..some interesting things for me to consider..If anything i would be happy with less bets..after my selections its mostly automated..I agree some times over using filters means i miss out on winners i would normally get.but also a better strike rate would mean better profit,plus maybe a smaller loosing run..
Also true about the bigger bankroll,I think start off small,then if it is still going well then ramp it up..It would be nice to have a second income,but i am realistic and this is just an interest..Seems it will just pay for my stupid weekend social bets..
On another note..what about a staking plan..I have done some research and it seems place betting plans are few..could any staking work?which would you suggest?..I can trial with a bot.
regards mark

Maark
With a 50% strike rate I would set up a bank of 20 units and bet 1/20th of the highest point that the bank has reached, never reducing the bet. If you double your bank remove 50% of the profit as a dividend for yourself and reset your bet as 1/20th of the new bank.
20 unit bank - double to 40 units - withdraw 10 units - restart with a 30 unit bank and a 1.5 unit bet.
I would also check which price ranges are the most/ least profitable as your data builds up.

Maark
Unless you take the money off the table you have not won anything. You may have doubled your money in your betting bank but it is not profit until you make it profit. If you do not reward yourself with the profit, then you have to ask "what are you doing it for?"

beton has a point here, you could always split any weekly profit, half for the bank and half for you.

Bank percentage is the only safe staking plan, as the bank grows so does your stake and profits.

as Crash used to say "a profit is not a profit until it's spent off the race course"

I like this idea..at the moment i am betting 5% of the bank.so it goes up or down as i win or loose..i had doubled my bank ,but had a loosing day so just short at the moment..If or when i do i will try this plan..i also like the idea of taking profit..Not sure how to set my bot to keep the highest bet,but will work it out.
Thanks again for the feedback

Do it on a daily or weekly basis not per bet as the swings will work against you.

so your saying bet my 5% of my starting bank all day and change this at the start of a new day or week according to the then balance?

Yep, also known as ratchet staking. It stays at 5% (or whatever) for the day or week but doesn't go down on a losing day. Sort of like level stakes but with a new higher level on each day's/week's bank high.

I should have said reset your bet the day after you reach a new high point. There's no need to reset it during a day's operations. As suggested above you could do it weekly but I'd favour the daily check.

you were going OK with me until the last condition - that smells a bit like data back fitting for me and you have to be wary of that as there is no last race - its continuous. Some people claim the last race if different - I'm not so sure - it could have been in the old days when people were at the track.
If anything i think it could be the easiest as there can be a favourite bias as people look to get out.


However if you can maintain a 16% POT consistently you are in the top 1% of punters in the world.

The simplest way to improve that would be to place your bet where you get the most advantage - thus look for early fixed and also use BF.

Also carefully examine your " run of outs" sequence - if you have had a quite long and unexpected sequence somewhere it will be telling you that down the track your SR will " revert to the mean" and will reduce - thus putting pressure on the POT.

I adopted the last race thing as looking back over past results i very rarely get a winner in the last anywhere..also it seems the earlier races are more profitable than the last few..I also saw this mentioned in another post recently and it got me thinking..I am not sure why this is the case,it even may be my selection method..
also another filter i use is betting only in races class 3 and above..but i might relax this and see if more bets is better.
Funnily enough i am on a run of outs at the moment..will see how it affects pot over time

as i said - if you can maintain anywhere near 16% POT you are in the top 1% world wide.

or else you work for BC3 investments and we all know happened to them

A sobering thought. Assuming the mark is reached, even being in this 'upper echelon' would return next to nowt unless you can...

1. muster a considerable turnover AND
2. get on without getting knocked off - out by 'the house'

?

Cheers LG

at 16% the TO and thus the return can grow quite quickly by itself.
e.g.
setup parameters:

1. bank 200x
2. 110 bets per month
3. increase bet after each month to 1/200th of bank.

if everything goes according to plan the results would look like this:


M bank bets bet % profit bank
1 200 110 1.00 0.16 18 218
2 218 110 1.09 0.16 19 237
3 237 110 1.18 0.16 21 258
4 258 110 1.29 0.16 23 280
5 280 110 1.40 0.16 25 305
6 305 110 1.52 0.16 27 332
7 332 110 1.66 0.16 29 361
8 361 110 1.80 0.16 32 393
9 393 110 1.96 0.16 35 427
10 427 110 2.14 0.16 38 465
11 465 110 2.32 0.16 41 506
12 506 110 2.53 0.16 45 550

so after 12 months assuming the 16% POT
a modest bank of 2k and a an initial bet of $10 each you are clearing 450 per month.
end of year 2 1200 per month etc. etc.

sure - there would be some dry runs which is why you have bet size 1/200th of bank

that why i say you would be in the top 1% WW if you can garner a consistent 16%.

People who do this caper for a serious living get about 5%.
they would like more but that what they get i believe

Aussie, what sort of criteria would you say you'd need to achieve to establish eligibility for the 1% 'club'? 12 months of meeting or exceeding 16% POT on a monthly basis, or longer? And then I guess the ability to prove it with bookmaker/tote records?

well as is all things punting it is secretive.
so there is no actual club.

from an individuals punting perspective though i think i would like to see around 18 months of fluctuating returns that finished with a POT of >10% or as high as you can get.

In that period you want to see bad times and recovery periods and you don't want to rely on back fitting.

Hey aussie,

12% on T/O looks interesting, if somewhat elusive i.e. the stake doubles after 12 months. It's full of assumptions and comes with a 'sniff of utopia', but food for thought in any case. Works out at approx 25 bets per week.

Cheers LG

Well book the Hall for July 1 2014 at the Surf Club, pre order the kegs and prawns, dust off the red carpet, tee up the gold leaf signwriter and get ready to induct a new member for the One Per Center's Honour Board.....lol, coz I've averaged 10.8% POT for the last year.....hooray!! (fully verifiable)

If you get >12% can we get some "dancers" or even some friendly courtesans

serious comment later - i've gotta zip.

I survive on just under 2%.
Strike rate a comparatively low 71% this year.

That works out to be an average Divi $1.43.
that's tight and would put a lot of pressure on the selected betting house /method that you chose as even an improvement to $1.5 would 3x your POT.

10.8% POT through thick and thin and with your own money is a great effort.
you must be on top of the world.
IMHO now you would need to consider a few things

1. streamline your operation as much as you can.

2. scout around/think/evaluate the best wagering option - BF, ABE,corporate bookmakers etc - getting that optimised can double your POT again.

3. risk manage your operation - what would you do for example if your form provider went out of business( happened to cyberhorse 3 weeks ago). Try to get an alternative supplier/plan to insulate you from this.
Also imagine a scenario where you come home tonight and your computer and all its backups are stolen. Could you continue etc.


As i said anything >5% POT is very good - thank fully most people lose and they're the ones we rely on.

Thanks for the feedback Aussie, much appreciated. Just to qualify a few things though:
Only Lay bet 1st & 2nd favourites, so Betfair is the only choice

Rather than streamlining, I'm adding more value all the time. As my results spreadsheet expands, other former non bets start to become viable long term, as price interactions are revealed over a larger sample.

My only achilles heel, is that I rely 100% on oncourse betting fluctuations, no previous form or ratings required! This limits the scope of venues, but still plenty of action at this stage.

With the passing of time I fear that the genuine on course flucs will be replaced by synthetic contrived prices as determined by online bookies steering bettors in a direction that they propose, rather than an honest assessment. If that were the case my contingency would be to subscribe to someone like Vince Aspinall's prices that he provides to the oncourse bookies now, providing he hasn't shut up shop too. It's a worry?

RP
This does not portray the true story. In this period you had the school of hard knocks. During that apprenticeship period, you lost your shirt, your pants, and your smalls. But you did not lose what was in your smalls. Your return for the courage for continuing has been on the up and up since day 196 when you sorted out what to do and what to leave. You may have averaged 10.8% over the year but the truth is double that.
Well done. Credit where credit is deserved. Kudos to you.

Right, just added you to the Xmas card list Wally....lol Front row seat at the Bondi Icebergs Club confirmed for July, don't drive there, I'll organise a cab.....hang on, you live in WA....lol. How bout I get some frozen prawns and a case of crownies delivered??

I can provide the kit for a spot of jousting on the dunes if that helps? In another life it would've been the 'dancing girls' but we must make do with the resources to hand, I guess.

LG

Maark.

Most of the Top Pro,s av 2 - 5 % on Turnover .

At 50 % strike Rate and 16 % 0n Turnover DONT change a thing.

Cheers

with streamlining of operations - i meant reduce the WORK you have to do thru automation etc - NOT reduce the scope.

on the contrary i would be looking to see where you could replicate what you do.

re laying - you can also lay on ABE - asianbettingexchange.com.au.

it initially looks complicated but it is quite simple when you get the hang of it.

WOW!! I'll check this out. Seen your PP post,... right underneath the BF banner...lol

As for automation forget it, if you want to do better than a few per cent POT. My best work is done between the Official start time and the Actual start.....if you get my drift??

Cheers again.

You misunderstand Aussie, I'm a layer. I win most days. Figures to the end of November show me winning on 1802 of 2547 races worked, of which 34% were won by favourites. This does not include UK/USA races or other sports.

You're right, it is complicated. I gave up part way through the tutorial with discounts, limits and taxes, I was completely lost. Why didn't they just model it on BF and give them some decent competition.