Upped the bet and froze
 

Hey guys

I have now upped my bet and froze

what do you do when you are betting at a level your not used to ?

I'm not the one to ask but I reckon you should step it back a notch or two. Best to be able to sleep at night instead of worrying.

Can you build up a bit slower?

The biggest issue punters face in punting is BANK MANAGEMENT. If you fail at it your likely to lose. If you are uncomfortable with your increase then as others said you need to reduce it to protect your bank. When people are uncomfortable with their level of betting they they make mistakes, and wrong decisions, as you obviously found out, but this is all part of the process.

I have heard many different ways that people grow their stake. Things like double the bank then double the bet. Or Triple the bank, double the bet and so on, the issue with this is that it takes your betting to a level that is way too high too fast all in one big leap this makes people uncomfortable and it makes no difference that you are obviously winning. The other issue is that this actually slows down the bank growth.

Best way to deal with growing your bet is to grow with the bank. Lets say that you started with a $1000 and your bet was $10 which is 1%. So you were happy to bet 1%. When you bank gets to $1200 and you are still betting $10 you are now NOT betting 1% you have reduced your bet to 0.83%. A 1% bet would now be $12 which is very easy to absorb as you would have gone through $11 and now $12. So not only are the stakes easy to absorb (get used to) your bank is growing faster due to the gradual increase in bet size rather then doing it in one big jump when one gets somewhere substantial like doubling the bank and so on.

If your bank increases too fast , then reduce the percentage thereby slowing the stake increases while still moving forward.

One caveat here, if you increased your bet to a level that is uncomfortable because you had to, due to situation like loosing a job or similar, then this is a whole new different issue. At the end the only way anyone will win is if they have a winning method and sound bank management, this includes a level of staking they are comfortable with. There is no way to get around that!

LOL Im getting of the soap box now .

Hope that helps

Sound advice Michal.

The percentage of your bank you wager also needs to be adjusted based on the type of selections you bet on in my opinion.

For example, if you've got a particular selection method that just looks for horses at double figure odds then having 10, 20 or more losing win wagers in a row is nothing out of the ordinary.

So there's no way I'd be betting anything near 1% of a bank on this selection method. I wouldn't feel comfortable with the very large bank percentage draw downs.

From my experience many punters have expectations that bare no relation to punting reality.

For example, someone jumped on our tipster Lucky Lil's selections straight after a $15.00 winner was tipped then a few weeks later sent an abusive e-mail to us complaining that another one hadn't been tipped.

With just 2 or 3 tips running most Saturdays Lucky Lil isn't a miracle worker!

Totally correct. Your example is very valid. I would say that from experience a true long-shot systems can have 80 outs without raising a sweat. That's just mathematics, based on the given strike rate and sufficient sample size, although maths is not a very popular topic.

Another option would be to bet proportional to the odds on offer to take out say 4% of the bank. So a bet on a $20 selection might be just a few $ whereas a fave would attract a much bigger bet.

Regardless, using a percentage of the bank (what ever that method/percentage is) ensures that bets grow / shrink with the status of the bank in a very-easy-to-adjust-to increments.

Hi All,

To echo the comments of what both Michal, Neil and others have said I have posted part of a recent email that I wrote in response to a staking question. I have deleted the names and some other detail in order to protect the privacy of the individual.

If your bank is say $5,000 and you are betting to collect 5% of your bank then the collect objective is $250. Therefore the correct bet size assuming that your rating is correct @ $1.80 is $250 / $1.80 = $139. If the rating/market price was $4 then your bet would be $63. If your betting $313 on these types of bets then you will go broke.

There is nothing wrong with reducing your bet targets as your bank falls. The first priority is to stay in the game and to do that you must maintain your funds and secondly and most importantly your confidence. The races will continue indefinitely so there is plenty of time to make profit, but going broke generally permanent.

I do not advocate betting level stakes even if it means so called more profit at the end of sample testing. Betting proportionally will invariably deliver similar profits (and usually more long term) with far less bankroll risk as the drawdowns are far less severe.

I disagree.
One cannot offer advice like that without knowing the further breakdown of statistics.
Firstly, Firehorse is clearly betting at an uncomfortable level.
This is disasterous and can lead to loss chasing. He has to be able to look at each race and shrug off the outcome without panic or anxiety.
Because you doubled your bank quickly, does not mean one should double the stakes, even if it's 1%, because none of us, apart from Firehorse knows the breakdown of odds that doubled his bank, and the likelihood of it repeating.

You must bet within your comfort zone, or the game is over before it starts.

Neil is correct, one needs to look at the overall picture and dissect it.
Clearly I doubt Firehorse is betting even money shots, and would hazard to guess that he's had a couple of outsiders come in. But again, that is pure guesswork. If that be the case, my advice to Firehorse is to withdraw his original bank, they can never get it back from him. Then continue as he always has done, and if his bank doubles again, then double his bet size.
Protect first, then play with "their" money.

Proportional betting only works if you are betting to overlays that you know from extensive history are overlays. And betting proportionally to price, makes no sense in the scheme of things, because "we" do not know anything about Firehorse's statistics. Maybe all his profit comes from $1.10 favourites, maybe they come from 50/1 shots, maybe eachway bets. So betting proportionally could send him bankrupt or evapourate his edge entirely depending which end of the spectrum he is.

This is not intended to be a debate between us, it is for the pure benefit of Firehorse alone.

comfort zone
 

ok well what are some suggestions about getting out of the comfort zone

Not sure whether you mean you want to be out of your comfort zone or within your comfort zone???

Stay within your comfort zone, that zone should remain the same if you bet percentage of bank and have put away your initial bank.
Up staking with their money, not yours.
Always the best scenario for any punter.
Compounding is the best mathematical way to improve things without causing a freeze.

But compound profits, not your initial bank.

I guess that covers both meanings.

You're out of that zone the moment you start to worry about the outcome of a race or a day's betting.

firehorse, i definitely think increasing stakes should be a very gradual and calculated move. I learnt that more recently thanks to some posts Paul made in my thread which made me think more about the potential drawdown on a bank as well as maximum run of outs etc.

The mathematics behind it isn't for everyone but I definitely believe you should at least try to wrap your head around it to get a greater understanding of how increasing stakes can have an impact on your bankroll.

Further to this here is a short explanation of what i'm looking at implementing myself:

I started with a small bank of just $1,000. As the min lay for SP bets on betfair is $30 i've used this all along thus far even with my bank increasing, because what I eventually want to implement is having those lays as 1% of my bank. My aim is to reach $3,000 bankroll and from there increase my stakes based on that 1% (or my %'s for my other systems/methods).

However what I also plan to do is once I pass that $3,000 mark is for every $500 profit I make, take $250 out and bank it. That way your still gradually increasing your stakes, but also rewarding yourself for your efforts. These funds you take out could be kept in a bank account and give you more comfort knowing that in the absolute worst case scenario you've still got a backup bank there if required.

Hope the above makes sense and not sure if its helpful. Also totally agree with CP in that do not bet out of your comfort zone. Being comfortable is what allows people to make smart, rational and timely decisions. As soon as your uncomfortable it may mess with your betting psychology and subconsciously force you to make bets you would not have previously at smaller stakes.

Thanks guys for your input

ChromePrince I want to be comfortable on my next stake level

I will try your advice to use their money only

see what happens..

And evajb001, I'm going to your thread

Thanks guys

From my experience I agree with all the others in that you should stay within your comfort limit. With continued success it will probably increase, anyway.
When I was young I won the price of a new car in six months of betting. Each bet was about half of what I was earning per week. When I got above my comfort level I became so careful that I would hardly place a bet. A valuable early lesson for me.

thanks SpeedyBen

10%
 

Ok

this is what i did

I bet today @ 10% bank and what a turn around

I realized I need to bet more %

Thet way I seem to be more "serious" about my approach

no idea why but could someone explain why ?

Today I'm betting 400$ & all is well

Maybe my brain cannot relate to betting smaller when I still have a good strike rate ??????

why do I do better now ???

Luck :) statistical variance, etc. Your brain interprets things you want to see. 1 days results are useless regardless of what bank percentage you bet.

I have no idea how you are betting but if every bet is 10% of your bank then you will go broke in 10 bets. If you have a good strike rate and recalculate your bets to 10% of a reducing bank then theoretically you could go on for a while at least.

Yeah maybe I'm getting too excited, its working out though

Hey Ocho I have printed the quote you have in your sig on the wall, I had a dream to be a very successful punter but life got in the way or some other excuse

I wish I saw that quote 15 yrs ago..:(

When do you know you will succeed on picking the right horse

Like absolutely positive that it will be the one of the best bets you could make ?

What is the single main thing on your mind when you place a bet ?

I don't really bet on one horse and, as a matter of fact am really hopeless at betting. I hang around here hoping someone accidentally drops the keys to the kingdom (or maybe just a part of the map that leads there...lol).

My main thing used to be trading while I have a couple of bots where I keep trying out different, easy to place on a bot type, systems. The dude that runs the bot site has said that one of the bots won't be renewed when the new Betfair thing starts in November (spewing). They have not made me a cent but (as above with the keys) I keep persisting.

In answer to your last question (the single thing on my mind) when I was trading was just to execute a good trade over and over again. Never think about the money - just concentrate on sticking to your process and system. If it's a good system the money will roll in on its own accord.

Good luck!

"just concentrate on sticking to your process and system"

that makes sense

I suggest following Ocho's advice as 10% is way too high. I am not sure what your strike rate is but I win most of the races I bet in. Yet I still wouldn't go anywhere near 10%.

I havent experienced long losing runs yet

But I see why 10% may be too high

Its not the losing run that causes the problem. Its the multiple losing runs.

W W W W W L L W L L W L L W L L W L L L

Ths sequence wins 9 from 20 which is 40% which is high yet the losing runs with only 1 win in between add up. They went 4 from 15 in that period and 10% staking and you are wiped out.

10% wasn't my advice at all, UB. I was merely following on from FH's post about betting 10%.

That depends how much he wins on the winning bets.

I should mention I do place betting mainly so strike rate is higher

Win bets yes 10% is way high

I meant you gave advice that 10% is too high. I didn't mean you said to use 10%.


True I was assuming high strike rate therefore I assumed prices were low (fav).


Even for place betting it is way too high. My max for anything is 2%.

The place strategy i'm betting which hits about 60-70% of the time I'm only betting 1.6% of bank and thats based on the maths Paul outlined in my thread and having a desire to have a max drawdown of 40%.

So for 10% of bank to be viable you'd have to be hitting a strike rate of probably 90%+ whilst being profitable and still be comfortable with a drawdown of 50% or more (rough guess)

ok I'm getting the picture..

better pull my head outa my @#$e and get back to it

thanks guys much appreciated, need this reality check sometimes