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-   -   Musings on the Melb. Cup... (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=29094)

Lord Greystoke 8th October 2014 07:15 AM

Musings on the Melb. Cup...
 
My Melbourne Cup selection guide:

Not too heavy = ?
Not too old = ?
Not too distant = ?
Not too BOLD = ?

Fill in the gaps at your leisure gentlemen!

Cheers LG

PS Its ALL here somewhere (isn't it always?)

Lord Greystoke 8th October 2014 08:35 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
My Melbourne Cup selection guide:

Not too heavy = ?
Not too old = ?
Not too familiar = ?
Not too BOLD = ?

Fill in the gaps at your leisure gentlemen!

Cheers LG

PS Its ALL here somewhere (isn't it always?)


A minor change gents!

LG

evajb001 8th October 2014 08:36 AM

From memory I think it was Speedy who had some pretty simple filters that provided majority of the winners in recent years. I know it helped me pick Green Moon.

Lord Greystoke 8th October 2014 08:46 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
From memory I think it was Speedy who had some pretty simple filters that provided majority of the winners in recent years. I know it helped me pick Green Moon.


Nailed Green Moon that year I seem to remember. 20s or thereabouts?

Care to have a crack at the gaps above mate?

Cheers LG

PS there are cup systems and then there are CUP systems. Think Bolly :D

UselessBettor 8th October 2014 07:22 PM

I have a set of rules that haven't failed me yet which means this year is probably the year they fail.

I have them in an email buried away which I pull out each year in Nov. I'll try and post the rules when I find them.

Lord Greystoke 8th October 2014 08:43 PM

Stuff of CHAMPIONS mate!

Cheers LG

SpeedyBen 11th October 2014 01:20 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
From memory I think it was Speedy who had some pretty simple filters that provided majority of the winners in recent years. I know it helped me pick Green Moon.

I'll be baak !!

darkydog2002 11th October 2014 02:22 PM

Easiest Race in Australia to beat.
Mind you last year my 50 /1 horse came 2nd.

SpeedyBen 11th October 2014 11:55 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
My Melbourne Cup selection guide:

Not too heavy = ?
Not too old = ?
Not too distant = ?
Not too BOLD = ?

Fill in the gaps at your leisure gentlemen!

Cheers LG

PS Its ALL here somewhere (isn't it always?)

Not too Long
Not too Short

Lord Greystoke 12th October 2014 09:08 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedyBen
Not too Long
Not too Short


Previous runs count for nought

LG

UselessBettor 12th October 2014 10:42 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Previous runs count for nought

LG
Then wouldn't the result therefore be random ?

Lord Greystoke 12th October 2014 11:22 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Then wouldn't the result therefore be random ?


previous runs in the cup

Cheers LG

SpeedyBen 12th October 2014 12:00 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
previous runs in the cup

Cheers LG


With the exception of Fiorente that has been true since the wonder mare.

UselessBettor 12th October 2014 01:02 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
previous runs in the cup

Cheers LG

thanks for clarification.

SpeedyBen 15th October 2014 06:22 PM

I see that Red Cadeaux is back for another crack. What a warrior he is, lining up in distance races all over the world and being competitive in most of them.

The Ocho 1st November 2014 09:19 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I have a set of rules that haven't failed me yet which means this year is probably the year they fail.

I have them in an email buried away which I pull out each year in Nov. I'll try and post the rules when I find them.

How you going with finding those rules, UB?

UselessBettor 2nd November 2014 06:32 AM

Yeah I found the the other day and posting here from memory as I don't have them with me.

They were basically

1. 56.5Kg and under
2. Win strike rate min 1%
3. place strike rate min 35%
4. Ran within last 3-17 days. 17 days = Caulfield Cup day
5. Age 4-7
6. Exclude barrier 1

There was another one which I think was around odds range of $4- $51 but could be wrong on the exact odds.

This generally gives you a cut down list on contenders which you can then take a look at or you can dutch bet.

Just looking quickly it would give the following

Junoob
Who Shot the barman
Brambles
Au Revior
Opinion
Alraldo
Lucia Valentina
Signoff

SpeedyBen 2nd November 2014 11:51 AM

Here we go
 
Only two horses have survived my history based rules this year. The last time it happened they ran 1 -2.

No 22 Lucia Valentina
No 24 Signoff

rails run 2nd November 2014 01:50 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedyBen
Only two horses have survived my history based rules this year. The last time it happened they ran 1 -2.

No 22 Lucia Valentina
No 24 Signoff
Thanks Speedy. I had worked your rules this morning and got the same selections so it's good to see you confirm it. I have been a believer since you put me into Green Moon! And ever grateful!

SpeedyBen 2nd November 2014 02:24 PM

Thanks Rails. The original rules have worked every year since 2008. In a stroke of genius I added another rule last year which excluded Fiorente. It's probably a good rule long term but it doesn't affect anything this year.

UselessBettor 2nd November 2014 03:07 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedyBen
Only two horses have survived my history based rules this year. The last time it happened they ran 1 -2.

No 22 Lucia Valentina
No 24 Signoff

Two very good horses and would both be in my top 3 or 4 selections.

SpeedyBen 2nd November 2014 03:11 PM

From a personal point of view, I'm happy to be on those two, UB

darkydog2002 2nd November 2014 03:37 PM

Wont be getting 1 red cent of mine.

SpeedyBen 2nd November 2014 03:41 PM

Good to hear.
How about a pre race tip this year, Darky?

Lord Greystoke 2nd November 2014 03:46 PM

Think you are missing one out there gents. No 5?

Cheers LG

SpeedyBen 2nd November 2014 03:50 PM

It's a long time since a horse has won coming off a break of more than 17 days, My Lord.
I may be wrong but I think it was Vintage Crop

Lord Greystoke 2nd November 2014 03:55 PM

Sorry mate. That was me being a numb nuts. Hows about No 21 however?

Cheers LG

SpeedyBen 2nd November 2014 04:02 PM

My rules eliminate Araldo because it is 7yo and greater than 20.0 in the market.
The rules will certainly eliminate the winner sooner or later. Could be this year.
Apart from the great MD who broke all the rules I think Rogan Josh may have been the last 7yo+ to win. May be wrong but it was a long time ago.

Lord Greystoke 2nd November 2014 04:05 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedyBen
My rules eliminate Araldo because it is 7yo and greater than 20.0 in the market.
The rules will certainly eliminate the winner sooner or later. Could be this year.
Apart from the great MD who broke all the rules I think Rogan Josh may have been the last 7yo+ to win. May be wrong but it was a long time ago.


You are correct there Speedy. Vintage Crop the only other 7yo to win since 1983

Cheers LG

SpeedyBen 2nd November 2014 04:10 PM

I know stuff about previous cups, My Lord. I have always been fascinated by it.
I have my biggest single race outlay each year on the great race. The mug money makes it attractive. I reckon Fiorente's correct price was probably 4.50 or less last year but the man in the street's money stretched it to 6.0 SP.

Lord Greystoke 2nd November 2014 04:20 PM

I like your thinking there Speedy. Regards a 7yo winning, would be 4 times since 1983 and the last 4 winners were 6yo. Makes you wonder a bit.

Cheers LG

Lord Greystoke 2nd November 2014 04:21 PM

Here is an interesting link which gives a nice run down back to 1983.

Cheers LG

darkydog2002 2nd November 2014 04:22 PM

Will be posted as usual on Cup Day Speedy.
Only got 2nd @50/1 last year.

Cheers

SpeedyBen 2nd November 2014 06:18 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
I like your thinking there Speedy. Regards a 7yo winning, would be 4 times since 1983 and the last 4 winners were 6yo. Makes you wonder a bit.

Cheers LG

I considered allowing 7yo UK horses in as they are not 7 yet but quite a few UK 7yos have tried without success so I've left it as is.

SpeedyBen 2nd November 2014 06:21 PM

All this stuff makes me think that Makybe will still be spoken of with reverence in 50 years time.
She not only won as a 7yo but carried 58kg which has been beyond the males since the Cup went upmarket.

The Ocho 2nd November 2014 10:15 PM

Okay thanks guys.

I was just looking at the fields for the day's racing as I am in a cup day syndicate and all those fields are massive. No wonder we never do much good. :rolleyes:

We usually go for trifectas, first fours and running doubles (and a quaddie if there is enough left over). We are obviously trying to hit it big rather than just backing the fav (or whatever).

Does anyone have any other/different suggestions?

michaelg 3rd November 2014 07:12 AM

I had a Trifecta system on the M.Cup for several years but lost interest. On Cup morning I would look at the market in the Telegraph and all horses at $20 (or was it $25?) I would put them to win in a stand-out trifecta and the field to run second and third. I looked at this method from the results going back to the mid 70's when Trifectas were introduced, and the profit would have been amazing thanks to some big outsiders running second or/and third. I started betting with real money when flexi betting was introduced and the first year the trifecta paid in inxs of $20,000. There is so much "silly' money on the Cup - people bet on the horse/jockey's colours, names, numbers, birth dates, etc that often the exotics pay amazingly well. I lost interest when I unsuccessfully tried to adapt this trifecta method to other races and when the two Japanese horses quinelled the race. Tomorrow out of interest I will look the selections for the method.

UselessBettor 3rd November 2014 04:13 PM

Overall I have 11 horses marked as possible winners.

I've settled on 1,3,5,22,24 as the only significant chances of winning though.

If I have to narrow it down I would say I can't split 1,5 and 22 as the best of these.

AS for the race I'll be laying the 12 selections I don't see having a chance.

UselessBettor 3rd November 2014 04:33 PM

Here are the 11 I had as chances:

Admiral Rakti
Fawkner
Protectionist
Seismos
Junoob
Mutual Regard
Who shot the barman
Au Reviour
Araldo
Lucia Valentina
Signoff

Lord Greystoke 3rd November 2014 05:20 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Here are the 11 I had as chances:

Admiral Rakti
Fawkner
Protectionist
Seismos
Junoob
Mutual Regard
Who shot the barman
Au Reviour
Araldo
Lucia Valentina
Signoff


Nice one UB. Lets hop that barman is wearing a vest bc I NAILED him at $26

Cheers LG


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