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Musings on the Melb. Cup...
My Melbourne Cup selection guide:
Not too heavy = ? Not too old = ? Not too distant = ? Not too BOLD = ? Fill in the gaps at your leisure gentlemen! Cheers LG PS Its ALL here somewhere (isn't it always?) |
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A minor change gents! LG |
From memory I think it was Speedy who had some pretty simple filters that provided majority of the winners in recent years. I know it helped me pick Green Moon.
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Nailed Green Moon that year I seem to remember. 20s or thereabouts? Care to have a crack at the gaps above mate? Cheers LG PS there are cup systems and then there are CUP systems. Think Bolly :D |
I have a set of rules that haven't failed me yet which means this year is probably the year they fail.
I have them in an email buried away which I pull out each year in Nov. I'll try and post the rules when I find them. |
Stuff of CHAMPIONS mate!
Cheers LG |
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I'll be baak !! |
Easiest Race in Australia to beat.
Mind you last year my 50 /1 horse came 2nd. |
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Not too Long Not too Short |
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Previous runs count for nought LG |
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previous runs in the cup Cheers LG |
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With the exception of Fiorente that has been true since the wonder mare. |
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thanks for clarification. |
I see that Red Cadeaux is back for another crack. What a warrior he is, lining up in distance races all over the world and being competitive in most of them.
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How you going with finding those rules, UB? |
Yeah I found the the other day and posting here from memory as I don't have them with me.
They were basically 1. 56.5Kg and under 2. Win strike rate min 1% 3. place strike rate min 35% 4. Ran within last 3-17 days. 17 days = Caulfield Cup day 5. Age 4-7 6. Exclude barrier 1 There was another one which I think was around odds range of $4- $51 but could be wrong on the exact odds. This generally gives you a cut down list on contenders which you can then take a look at or you can dutch bet. Just looking quickly it would give the following Junoob Who Shot the barman Brambles Au Revior Opinion Alraldo Lucia Valentina Signoff |
Here we go
Only two horses have survived my history based rules this year. The last time it happened they ran 1 -2.
No 22 Lucia Valentina No 24 Signoff |
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Thanks Rails. The original rules have worked every year since 2008. In a stroke of genius I added another rule last year which excluded Fiorente. It's probably a good rule long term but it doesn't affect anything this year.
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Two very good horses and would both be in my top 3 or 4 selections. |
From a personal point of view, I'm happy to be on those two, UB
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Wont be getting 1 red cent of mine.
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Good to hear.
How about a pre race tip this year, Darky? |
Think you are missing one out there gents. No 5?
Cheers LG |
It's a long time since a horse has won coming off a break of more than 17 days, My Lord.
I may be wrong but I think it was Vintage Crop |
Sorry mate. That was me being a numb nuts. Hows about No 21 however?
Cheers LG |
My rules eliminate Araldo because it is 7yo and greater than 20.0 in the market.
The rules will certainly eliminate the winner sooner or later. Could be this year. Apart from the great MD who broke all the rules I think Rogan Josh may have been the last 7yo+ to win. May be wrong but it was a long time ago. |
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You are correct there Speedy. Vintage Crop the only other 7yo to win since 1983 Cheers LG |
I know stuff about previous cups, My Lord. I have always been fascinated by it.
I have my biggest single race outlay each year on the great race. The mug money makes it attractive. I reckon Fiorente's correct price was probably 4.50 or less last year but the man in the street's money stretched it to 6.0 SP. |
I like your thinking there Speedy. Regards a 7yo winning, would be 4 times since 1983 and the last 4 winners were 6yo. Makes you wonder a bit.
Cheers LG |
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Will be posted as usual on Cup Day Speedy.
Only got 2nd @50/1 last year. Cheers |
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I considered allowing 7yo UK horses in as they are not 7 yet but quite a few UK 7yos have tried without success so I've left it as is. |
All this stuff makes me think that Makybe will still be spoken of with reverence in 50 years time.
She not only won as a 7yo but carried 58kg which has been beyond the males since the Cup went upmarket. |
Okay thanks guys.
I was just looking at the fields for the day's racing as I am in a cup day syndicate and all those fields are massive. No wonder we never do much good. :rolleyes: We usually go for trifectas, first fours and running doubles (and a quaddie if there is enough left over). We are obviously trying to hit it big rather than just backing the fav (or whatever). Does anyone have any other/different suggestions? |
I had a Trifecta system on the M.Cup for several years but lost interest. On Cup morning I would look at the market in the Telegraph and all horses at $20 (or was it $25?) I would put them to win in a stand-out trifecta and the field to run second and third. I looked at this method from the results going back to the mid 70's when Trifectas were introduced, and the profit would have been amazing thanks to some big outsiders running second or/and third. I started betting with real money when flexi betting was introduced and the first year the trifecta paid in inxs of $20,000. There is so much "silly' money on the Cup - people bet on the horse/jockey's colours, names, numbers, birth dates, etc that often the exotics pay amazingly well. I lost interest when I unsuccessfully tried to adapt this trifecta method to other races and when the two Japanese horses quinelled the race. Tomorrow out of interest I will look the selections for the method.
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Overall I have 11 horses marked as possible winners.
I've settled on 1,3,5,22,24 as the only significant chances of winning though. If I have to narrow it down I would say I can't split 1,5 and 22 as the best of these. AS for the race I'll be laying the 12 selections I don't see having a chance. |
Here are the 11 I had as chances:
Admiral Rakti Fawkner Protectionist Seismos Junoob Mutual Regard Who shot the barman Au Reviour Araldo Lucia Valentina Signoff |
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Nice one UB. Lets hop that barman is wearing a vest bc I NAILED him at $26 Cheers LG |
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