RaceCensus Bunbury Bonanza System
 

So many people waiting on some betting systems rather than lay or arb systems.
Thought I'd contribute my Bunbury Bonanza System:

Last start winner at Bunbury.
Must not be favourite this start.
Not first up from a spell.

Selections 1,627
Winners 246
Strike Rate 15.12%
Profit $465.50
POT 28.62%
Average Dividend $8.51
Maximum Dividend $93.00

Is that - last start winner@Bunbury or this start is Bunbury, but last start winner anywhere?

Either way, a bit skinny SR....

But thanks, mate.

"Last start winner at Bunbury."

Up the strike rate a little and add it to the above:

Last start winner at Bunbury
Racing within 30 days
Non metro track this start.

Selections 1,116
Winners 263
Strike Rate 23.57%
Profit $233.30
POT 20.91%
Average Dividend $5.13
Maximum Dividend $24.00

That makes it a total of 698.80 units profit and POT of 25.48% POT.

Anyone guess why Bunbury throws this result?

I like the Max Dividend!

It might not be due to Bunbury track specifically, but rather where the horse can perform next (per the system). If non-metro tracks are excluded, I think it leaves York, Northam, Bunbury and Mt Barker within a 4 hour travel loop. Perhaps the limited number of available tracks might have something to say about the class of racing (???). And if as last start winner it's not favourite, a metro horse may be taking a big class drop for a run 'cause it's out of form/early in preparation (???)

How's the S/R compare with Bunbury repeat runners vs a horse running elsewhere? Maybe the course handicapper isn't the best...

What about maiden vs non-maiden last start winners? Maybe it's the done thing in the region to run your maiden through Bunbury (there are no maiden races at Ascot today, nor the previous 3 meets; and just checked the last 2 at Belmont Park: no maidens)

My WA geography isn't the best :) Missing Narrogin, Toodyay....and probably plenty of others too :)

Pinjarra missing too. That's the closest one to Bunbury.

Why?, Dont think it's got anything to do with the track itself CP, although it is known to favour front runners, other than that there are 60+ trainers operating out of there & it is close to Perth, which makes it the best provincial training area in the state.

Therefore imo winners at that track that are then sent out to non-metro races at their next start away from Bunbury may often be meeting slightly inferior opposition despite the fact they are probably moving up in class. If they are running again at Bunbury, well they are in form & having won their last start there, odds are they are front running types. & the non-fav filter helps add value to the system.

Some interesting points of view.
I think it's a combination of the points mentioned and the track which throws the results.
It's a leaders track with a short straight, but also a fairly testing turn into the home straight. The camber of that turn is quite tight by comparison. Basically you have to be on the pace or leading, and able to handle a hard turn and hang on in the straight.

Therefore, although the strike rate is fairly consistent with other tracks, the horses generally start over the odds next start.

You could add Geelong to that list

Bunbury Races today:
Chocolate Moon and Angel Wing are last start winners at Bunbury. Both are early favourites. Does this fit the criteria ? Will be watching them - even though I usually don't bet on WA races...

Chocolate Moon just won - sprinting away from the field! Paid at least $4

Angel Wing finished 4th. However, with a $1 bet on both horses, you would have made $4. That's 200% profit...

The winner of race 8 was also a selection I believe, except that it was favourite.
So, two from 3 with one official selection which won at 4.0 local tote.

Its ok if its favourite - with the "revised" second lot of rules. That means 2 winners out of 3 that were last start winners at Bunbury!
That's $6.30 from a $3 total bet. Sounds good to me...

Looking back to 26 March (last Bunbury Races), there were 2 picks for a 3rd and a win at $4.40.

1/1/2014 to 31/3/2014

Last start winner at Bunbury
Racing within 30 days
Non metro track this start.

47 selections
11 winners
23.40% strike rate
Profit $1.20 (TAB price)
POT 2.55%

Place Profit $11.40 (TAB price)
24.26% POT

Does the $93 winner distort the profit result?How likely is it that a huge outsider will win again?

Of course kiwi, but looking at the prices of winners, longshots often bob up.
They are sent out way over their true odds.

I preferred the first set of rules myself. However, as I'm not backing either set it matters not.

For those following, there is a potential selection for tomorrow.

Ascot R4 #6 Charm Destiny

Tomorrow ....
Ascot 4.7
Fortius Quo Vadis

thanks speedy.
I am following this one with interest

would like to know the figs for last start bunbury winners.
racing next start at ascot, Belmont however.

I am also following this with much interest! Charm Destiny finished 3rd.

Unfortunately weakened badly to finish 2nd last after up there for most of the race.

It wasn't like this.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiUjb2HRxEY

This is a low strike rate method, patience is key.

I know this horse was an outsider - but so many outsiders won today, why couldn't it keep up the trend! The video is great!

Video, very satirical but EXACTLY like my local betting shop back in the old country, remember it well, ahhhhhhhhhhh!

Sunday
 

Albany 6.16 Zero to Sixty

zero to sixty is scratched.
unfortunately.


horses racing tomorrow 21/6 Bunbury

race 6 ( solheim, comfortably and lucciola )
race 8 ( howya goin' now )

I think this system is one to follow-especially for place betting.
I have done an analysis since 1.1.2014
last start winners raced at Bunbury.
non metro next start, within 30 days.
48 runners ( 13 wins $ 57.40 return )( 29 placings including winners $64 return) - using best of three totes.

Solheim and Lucciola came 2nd and 3rd.
Howya didn't place. Comfortably was scratched.

Not too bad with 2 placings out of 3.

And the winner of the last race, while not within the rules was a last start Bunbury winner!

I mean Race 8

In Ascot today, race 2 - we have Kim Mini - a last start winner at Bunbury...

She has just came third - very close finish. Paid roughly $4 a place.

Nice result!!! $4.20 best tote the place! I can live with that

April Bunbury system results
<pre>
WIN PLACE
Races Bet: 10 10
Races Won: 4 7
S.R./Race: 40.0% 70.0%
Outlay($): 13.00 13.00
Return : 17.80 17.60
$ Profit : 4.80 4.60
% P.O.T. : 36.90% 35.40%
</pre>

Chrome,

Sorry, but may be dumb. Don't get post 22. You are saying a possible selection at Ascot. Thought the rules were for this start , has to be running at a non-metro track.

Thank you for providing the system and giving us something to think about re nature of track etc

Refer post number 1.

There is the original method and the revised method to lift the strike rate.
You have to have a bit of ability to win at Bunbury.
The track demands more from a horse than a conventional country track, therefore horses usually start well over the odds, this is backed up by even the place odds.