Question about Tote place payouts
 

As i never use tote i'm not sure what the rules are. If you place a bet on a horse to place when there are 8 or 9 runners for example at the time the bet gets accepted, then the race is run and after scratchings there's 7 horses. Do you get paid out if your horse places 3rd like with fixed odds? I'm assuming no..?

I believe if it is not scratched before the scratching deadline you still get 3rd place

hmm not sure what to think...

What did the Tote Operator say?

Late scratchings you get paid out for 3rd with tote. It seems a grey area. While with fixed as long as you get the bet down before the bookie has marked it as a scratching you're good for 3rd place if it's an earlier one.

Not sure about the tote but betfair will pay out for third in that scenario. Also if there are 16+ starters (I think) they pay 4th.

I know Betfair operate under a different rule in some cases because i have been caught before laying a runner for a place when i assumed it was a no third dividend race but they paid third.

Yea i made this mistake the whole first week i started arbing. Luckily it didn't cost me much.

Then there's fake fixed place arbs. They're the easiest money ever haha.

Still not sure about Tote. Think it comes down to whether it's classed as a late scratching with regards to whether 3rd is paid to you.

Can someone answer this:


If I take $100k off a bookie what is the difference to them whether it's through Fixed Odds or Tote?

I still don't fully understand tote so am I taking $100k off the bookie? Or am i taking it from a pool of money and therefore not damaging the bookie's profits?

Thanks.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parimutuel_betting

Key:

Thanks for that :)

So is any damage done to the bookie? How about on international racing? They still get their cut - Same as aus racing etc? So only fixed can stuff them up..

I'm no expert on this, just my observations during a learn curve before Internet betting.
At the races, in the ring, I observed the layout.
The bookies, the tote screens, the people, the stables, the rounding yard and the track.

The bookie's stalls and the tote screen's positioning favors the bookies. They can watch the screen while they work their boards.
When I wanted to go observe the horses it was a long walk from the betting ring, and a long walk back to the betting ring to see the prices on display.
So I could not go see the horse, make my assumptions then go back and study the "game" at the ring.
It was painful, drank lots of water, and of course ya have to do what ya have to do, then all that effort and it may lose !
But I got an idea of what's going on.
-----,
One day, I was losing, every Form type selection just did not win.
On the tote screen on this particular fleeting moment, my eye caught something, a plunge, a horse went from 7.50 down to 6 then back up to 7. later it graduated to 8's and 9's ~.
One bookie saw it to, he put his price up to 9.50, and others followed suit then they started playing around with the prices on the 2 favorites, around the 25/10 and 3's.
I waited in "hiding" amongst the crowd, observing.
The bookie moves it up from 7/1 to 10/1 and I put on my last $100 betting money for the day @ about 30 seconds before the race was to start.
This other punter pushed and shoved, nearly fell over, betted on the same horse, he saw it to. I think he was watching me cos he rushed in straight after I put my bet on.
It won.

Ok, so what was the probable cause of this win ?
The 2" favorites" were on the inner barrier, it was a very wet track and it was late race. Track had a mud patch near the rail on the straight, the same mud patch was there from race 2 of that venue earlier, but I did not pay much attention to it.
The horse that won was out on the dry section of the track, barrier 7.
It was it's 1st race after a spell, it came 2nd before the spell.
The bookies tried to "scare off" a plunge on the obvious, observed by this subtle plunge on the screen.
It was luck, right place at the right time, the "fleeting moment".
As a analytical sense it was not luck,it was a calculated risk right there and then, the catalyst was the mud patch on the inner part of the track.

Nothing can stuff up the bookies in the long run ( except maybe dwindling crowds), it was one race only a few got to "see" it. Hundreds more in the crowd that day were betting on those 2 other favorites trying to go around the mud patch. This took "time", while the 10/1 runner eased through clear of the other horses.
----------,
If you want quality non web page real-time prices, I suggest you try a subscription data service.
http://www1.subscriptiondata.com/
( but they won't show you the mud patches )
If your punting can sustain this subscription cost, plus programmer developer costs and maintenance, then I think this is the way to go.
I think, not sure, but I think they got the sole Australian rights to TAB prices nationally,
then it goes out from there to the web pages,pubs, clubs and I have heard of one punter has a dedicated TAB/Sports "man cave" out the back yard with a couple of dedicated and loyal rottweilers

This may be the only way to go for some private home use punters.
BUT, ya have to prove to yourself with real results before converting from free web scraping methods to a payed service if it will pay for itself from the winning bets, like any business...,from 12 Months Subscription $780.00
But

It comes down to how easily they can manage their risk. Lets say they are giving you tote prices. They can easily put your money on the tote to balance their books. Also at tote pries they basically have a 15%+ built into the book as that is what is taken by the tote.

Here is an example of a 3 horse race.

Horse A has $100 bet on it
Horse B has $1000 bet on it.
Horse C has $10000 bet on it.

This would be a very unbalanced book (depending on prices but lets assume they are all finish at odds of around $2.6). If they were to hold this money on each selection then if horse C won they would lose. So what they do is lay off their risk on horse C and horse B to the tote. Their book now looks like this.

Horse A has $100 bet on it (and $0 at tote)
Horse B has $100 bet on it (and $900 which they bet into the tote and just pas through)
Horse C has $100 bet on it (and $9900 which they bet into the tote and just pass through).

Now they really are risking $100 per horse and no matter who wins they get $300 and pay out $260 to the winning horse giving them a $40 profit.

Now lets say Horse C wins. They make their $40 and the $9900 they put into the tote they win and they pay out the bettors who bet with them.

Of course its much more complicated balancing a book then that but it gives you an idea.


Fixed Price they are trying to balance the book themselves with other markets such as betfair and other bookies. They are taking a set price so they need to make sure they are not putting up too high a price. They can't lay this off to the tote as too large sums of money on the tote will move the tote price lower and below their fixed price.

Thanks Puntz and UB :) Very informative!

Do people get banned from Tote for winning long term?

How do they bet back if you bet at the very last sec? They don't have time. I've been looking at Unibet for international. Would Unibet ban if you happened to win long term you think?

No.

They have the "ability" to bet later than you. Have you not noticed that the tote odds change after the race has jumped ? Also its all automated so its probably going to be milliseconds after you place your bet that it goes through to the tote as they wouldn't risk trying to balance very late bets.

EXACTLY, what I was saying on another post! You can't second guess tote SP as it's manipulated to suit the big boys. Betfairs no better, as they're allegedly trading their own markets?

How do bookmakers bet into the tote once betting is closed and the race is off? How do they actually do it?

I imagine that only the corporate that runs the tote can do it after it's closed, which would give their fixed odds business a big advantage. I have heard that the TAB let their most special customer do it as well. I have also heard a story about a phone operator making a mistake and then correcting it while the race was in play.

That's all just unsubstantiated rumours.

One thing I know for sure is that after they close there is a delay while all of the money from the co-mingled pools comes in, which definitely accounts for some of the price movement.

No one, including bookmakers, can bet after tote has closed. I was told:

Bookmakers can process thousands of transactions per second into the tote and therefore by the nature of systems some are accepted 1-2 seconds after jump, but they were delivered before the jump so there's no edge. That's why you see something jump at $3.30 on a Saturday but it shows up $3.10 when the race finishes, it's just the TAB systems catching up.

Who's the source Pat?

It's just a reply from one of the bookmakers I use. I sent him an email last night. It makes sense, otherwise it'd be serious tote manipulation which is probably illegal? lol I'm still learning.

Thanks Pat, good to know. So, plan B? :)

I'll stick with what I currently do for now. Tote is just too unpredictable. I need to work on Aus racing and I'm working on some other trading methods at the moment.

Might have something to do with this bloke: (courtesy of Wikipedia)

Ranogajec, according to insider accounts,[5] deployed, for his horse racing betting activities, a strategy combined of specific factors: identifying betting opportunities with as high liquidity as possible, meaning betting pools with significant money being bet by the regular gambling public; deploying a "highly sophisticated betting system"; identifying small margins, on which he bets significant amounts of money; and, importantly, closing deals with bookmakers, including industry leader TabCorp, for significant rebates on his bets. The latter has created controversy in the horse betting world, with many punters complaining about the alleged deal.[6] A TabCorp spokesman stated, in response to the media reports, that the corporation "investigated the incidents" and found "no evidence of illegal activity", but reminded the betting public that "the offering of tote-odds betting products by corporate bookmakers has inherent risks of pool manipulation [by large bettors]."[6]

Ranogajec reportedly accounts for 6-8% of Australian bookmaker TabCorp’s $10 billion annual revenue.[7] His betting on Betfair is believed to account for one third of the company's Australian operations.[8]

Ranogajec has gradually organised an extensive network of spotters, analysts, bettors and administrators, directing activities from office space he is allegedly occupying in the Fox Sports building at 235 Pyrmont Street,[9] in Sydney's inner suburb of Pyrmont.[10] It is known that he contracts many companies to provide information and does not employ anyone directly. However indirectly due to his information requirements, to gain the edge, he provides employment to over 300 people in Australia.[8]

What an absolute boss.