Laying and Exotics
 

This forum has had no new ideas for so long its an embarrassment.

Here is something which I am investigating and others can evaluate it for themselves. I have no idea if this will work.

Basic idea which needs tweaking:
1. Place a bet in the quadrella on major meetings. It will be placed at 2*2*2*F. I suggest this needs to be tweaked based on the races but lets use 2*2*2*F for now for some basic testing.
2. The aim of this system is $50 profit per quadrella. Its not going to make you rich but its extra pocket change to please the wife.
3. At the commencement of the first race in the quadrella you lay the 2 selections + $50 profit.
4. If one of the horses win you do the same in race 2.
5. If one of the horses win you do the same in race 3.
6. Now comes the interesting part. If your two horses had lost in any of those races you are $50 richer and you go home. But if you lost all 3 races then you now have a winning quadrella ticket. Check the payouts (they are available on the last race) and you can find which ones are higher then your outstanding cost. You can lay some of these to get some cash back or you can just wait and see what happens and hope it covers your outlay.

You will lose occasionally with this method. But you will also win big occasionally. If a long shot comes in that last leg you might make several thousand.

Here are some examples for today:

Doomben: 3,14 - 10,7 - 3,7 - Field =$128
Randwick: 4 -1,3 - 10,14 - Field = $56
Caulfield : 1 - 3 - 7 - Field = $11
Gold Coast: 3 - 5 - 5 - Field = $14
Newcastle: 1 - 1,10 - 10 - Field = $22
Bendigo: 1,2 - 2 - 5 - Field : $26
Morphettville : 1 - 5 - 6,1 - Field : $28
Ascot : 2,4 -9,13-14-Field : $56

As you can see I didn't just go 2-2-2-F but that is the start point and then I made my own adjustments based on field size and odds.

I'll check results at end of day.

Note: No bets actually placed as this is just testing - I know bets would affect payouts.

Ahhhh, my pet project for the last 10 years,lol, the problem you will encounter is the prices for the lay side accumulating to a higher value than the Quaddie, it all sounds great until you hit those 3 winners, i have even looked at this with just breaking even on the selections, but am keen to see if you can shine a light that i will see the key i have been missing.

Thanks UB. Can you please explain point 3 above? (At the commencement of the first race in the quadrella you lay the 2 selections + $50 profit.)

Can you give a working example as if you are trying to win $50 laying, say, a $5 horse you would be losing $200 just on that one horse.

Yep, because you have to lay to return the cost of the quaddie, so lets just say if you were taking the Doomben quaddie you would have to lay $45 on both runners, it would actually be worse taking less runners, even on the $11 quaddie the first bet is $66 (not including any commission)

Sorry UselessBettor not trying to stick it to you just pointing this out :)

Exactly as Shaun said. Lets use Doomben:

I want $50 profit. So I am laying $50 + cost of Quaddie in first race which is Race 5. So we lay 3 and 14 at Doomben.

Number 3 = $8,60 on betfair.
Number 14 = $3.45 on betfair.

Lay 3 for ($50+$128)/(1/8.6/(1/8.6+1/3.45)) = Lots of maths but basically this is saying find the percentage I need to lay on number 3 out of the $178 liability = Laying 29% of the amount on Number 3 = 0.28*178 = $49.84 (Round it to $50).

Lay number 14 the same way but 71% = 0.71 *178 = $126.

Number 3 one this race. So overall our loss on the race was 8.6*50 = $430-(50+126) = $254. Add this to our outlay already of $128 and we are down $382 after the first race.

I'll post Race 2 after its run and I've checked the odds on betfair.

Doomben: 3,14 - 10,7 - 3,7 - Field =$128 - PENDING
Randwick: 4 -1,3 - 10,14 - Field = $56 = WON $43 (after commission)
Caulfield : 1 - 3 - 7 - Field = $11 = WON $46 (after commission)
Gold Coast: 3 - 5 - 5 - Field = $14 = WON $46 (after commission)
Newcastle: 1 - 1,10 - 10 - Field = $22 = WON $45 (after commission)
Bendigo: 1,2 - 2 - 5 - Field : $26 = WON $35 (after commission)(see worked example below)
Morphettville : 1 - 5 - 6,1 - Field : $28 = WON $45 (after commission)
Ascot : 2,4 -9,13-14-Field : $56 - PENDING

Now for Bendigo the first leg won.

So we layed 1 and 2 in the first leg and 2 won. The odds were:
Number 1 :$8.00
Number 2 :$4.70

We layed 37% of $76 = $28 on Number 1 and it did not win.
We layed 63% of $76 = $48 on Number 2 and it won.

So our loss on the first leg was $48*4.7-78 = $150

So then we waited for Leg 2 of the quaddie.
We now need $150 + $50 +26 = $226

In the second leg I layed Number 2 at odds of $5.60. It lost. So I made $35 after commission ($226*0.935-26-150)

Now if Number 2 had won then I would have been laying 5.60*226 = $1265
In Leg 3 I had number 5 which would have cost me $8.20. This is the bit where Shaun was talking about. The numbers can and do escalate quickly. If we had got to this point then we need to alter what we are doing in leg 3. The quaddie for this meeting only had $4623 in the pool. So there is no use trying to lay to a liability of 8.2*1265 = $10373.

This is the issue with this method.

Leg 2 had number 10 win @ $3.10.

We were aiming for $432 return for the race. This means a loss of 315*3.05-$432+128 = $656

Leg 3 won at Doomben

Ascot was cleared in the third leg as well.

All lays won approx. $40-$50 today.

I've always wondered if you could get this type of thing to work. I guess some of the other options would be to take a lower % of the quaddie so your lay liabilities are lower etc and stick to pointy end of the market with your selections. Could you also possibly start on the daily double markets or the treble as well? Or is it the bigger payoffs of the quaddie that make it more appealing?

Could you attempt something similar with say other exotics like the First 4? Stand something out to win so that you can have more selections for 2nd/3rd/4th and lay it to break even or for a small profit if it loses? Obviously doing that you can lose both bets if your selection wins but you dont get all the placings but its almost like an insurance policy.

The biggest problem is price difference between tab and betfair, the price a runner is paying on the tab does have a relation to it's exotic payout, the difference between that price and the lay price can be quite significant and the further away from the fav the larger the difference, if you had a way of manipulating the market to bring the lay price closer to the tab win price then you could create a near risk free market.

The other option is also to use websites who offer 'best of' on exotics - although I have no clue if any or how many do this anymore. I know at one stage some bookies had best of or paid out the middle of 2 jurisdiction quaddies etc.

I just had a thought UB, couldn't you have the 'Field' race be any of the 4 legs that you want? I understand you prefer it to be the last leg so you can hedge with the approximates but surely it also makes sense to identify the roughest leg of the quaddie and make that your 'field' leg.

So you could do the last strategy on the first leg, your horse wins so quaddie remains alive, field 2nd leg so no laying required, then follow the lay strategy 3rd leg, and lets say it wins again you could then just lay your last selection appropriately in the last yeh?

The best thing about the last leg as the field is that you can lay off those that will pay above your profit. You can see the payouts when only one leg is left.