has anybody else been following this column in the weekly punt to win article?? i just did a quick calculation of the past 10 weeks entries and they returned the following return at sp....there were 20 selections for 14 winners and a return of $29.90!!
thats a whopping 50% profit on turnover (even more if you get top fluc) and 70% strike rate....am i missing something here, can it be that simple to trot out to the racecourse with a barrowful of money and only back these horses??? any other comments....

by the way there were 2 weeks with no selections...i wonder if this has the same success midweek??

Doesn't each race "selection" include four horses? If so [I'm not sure as I've never been able to access them for some reason and it seems I'm not alone with this problem].Beting all four will turn a profit now and then. What are your figures based on? Single selections that are odds-on? Or betting all four [odds-on too]? Your profit ["Whopping"? 14 winners from 20 races?] from that many winners means your average selection[s] had to be odds-on.

Like to know if I'm wrong about the number of horses selected. If single selections of more or less [but overall] odds-on Horses, thats about the Stats. ratio of odds on horses winning anyway. So, just pick your selections from odds-on horses? Isn't that a bit of a no brainer exercise [?]

Thanks Noel [just saw your message]. OK one selected horse. but your original Post is sending the message to new Punters [lots of them, now they have banned smoking in Vic. Pokies]that goes against a valid Punting Maxim; "Never bet odds-on!".
Have my barrow ready. Do you have the shovel?

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-11-12 03:39 ]

crash, these are not my selections merely the favourite in small fields as published in the weekly punt to win article on this site ....there is only one selection in the race, unless there are equal favourites....
cheers, noel

If there are no selections for a Saturday it means there were no runners.
One thing for sure - we are dispelling the betting myth that small fields are dangerous betting races because longshots regularly win.
Many small fields are very good win betting races - the exact opposite of what media mugs tell you - "no value" - if you can select the right horses - usually a shortish priced favourite/second favourite.
Note the discrepancy between tote and bookmaker odds on a Saturday - that also tells you something.

[ This Message was edited by: Neil on 2003-08-15 10:57 ]

last weeks results from punt to win....
4 starters, 4 winners, return at sp $11.10...
last 11 weeks now stands at 24 selections for 18 winners, return at sp $41.00...pot 70%..
cheers,
noel

this week 1 selection , 1 winner @$1.50 sp..

overall for 12 weeks 25 selections, 19 winners return $42.50 .....pot 70%...

cheers,
noel

Hi Noel,
I ran this through Price predictor for last 12 months, August 2002 to now - with a surprisingly poor outcome. Strike rate less than 20%. Loss on turnover about 25%.

Parameters used: Field size: Max 7
Saturday only
pos in betting: 1

Don't know if anyone would have different result.

I have run it through the last 150 races
Which produced a
35% S/R
-19% LOT

All winners were on the short side.
This is a recognised average stat.
Backing the pre-post fav.
I`m assuming, that`s what you mean.

Let us know if it is not.

I forgot to add , that I was targeting races with 8 & less starters , is that what you were doing or was it exactly 8 starters.?

bhagwan,

these refer to on-course favourites (not pre-post) in fields of 7 or less runners saturday adelaide, melbourne, sydney and brisbane metro races
...your stats may have been drawn from a much larger database

cheers,

noel

Shoto I would suggest there is something wrong with your Price Predictor set up. Why would favourites have less than a 20% strike rate?

Maybe you are missing some dividends...i.e. your software counts the bets but doesn't have dividends for the winners.

I will run some stats and see what shows up.

Following stats showed up for a limited period from 1/1/02 to 19/7/03 (need to update the database on this PC).

Field Size between 0 and 7
Weekday = Saturday
Area = Metropolitan
State = QLD, NSW, VIC, SA

include if TAB N Rank = 1


Total selections: 250
Total Wins: 109
Strike Rate: 43.6%
Total Place: 166
Place Strike rate: 66.4%
Profit on Turnover: -1.5%

Osulldj,

Your figures stack up to mine pretty much exactly.
What worries me are the number of different outcomes some people get from databases.

Bhagwan for example, gets a completely different result but that is possibly because of him including 8 runners not 7 or less.

Here are my stats:
(But I did include Perth as I have a limited history in my database.

Selections 143
Winners 66
Strike Rate 46.15%
Return $142.10
Loss $0.90
LOT 0.63%
Average Dividend $2.15

But here is some interesting added information.

Horses meeting all the above criteria, but paying less than $2.00 (odds on):

Selections 41
Winners 29
Strike Rate 70.73%
Return $47.10
Profit $6.10
POT 14.88% ****
Average Dividend $1.62

(Selections paying greater than even money were about 5% LOT).

Get DiviPlus on these badboys and your in the money! :wink:.......maybe!

Further fuel to the debate that you can't back favourites and especially odds on favourites and still win - you can, providing you're selective.


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-08-29 18:19 ]

Strange. Obviously I've got a problem. I checked and re-checked the set-up - and ran the test again - this is what my results give me. I can't say for sure that have every single Saturday meeting, but at worst it would be most of them. As far as I know Price will list selections without results seperately and not include them in the results. Any other price predictor users have this weirdness?

Chrome, Do you know if the same result (or close) would be achieved using pre-post prices, i.e. 1/1 or less or odds on??

Ran it through 300 races based on S/P favs for 40% S/R -15% LOT.

Frustrating stuff when you consider the strike rate.

My figures also match Chrome Prince's & Ossulldj's - I don't know what you other guys are doing!!!

Field Size = 3 to 7
Saturday Only
Metro Only in Syd, Mel, Bris, Adel & Perth
TABCORP Favourite (if equal favourite then lower TAB number)
Approx 18 months of data:

305 Selections
136 Winners (45% SR)
-2.10 LOSS (0.6% LOT)

Looking by price range:
1.00-1.90: 91 seln, 59 win, 6.70 profit (7% POT)
2.00-2.90: 169 seln, 66 win, -1.10 loss (0.6% LOT)
3.00+: 45 seln, 11 win, -7.70 loss (17% LOT)

Once again the odds-on runners are the best bet!

Forgot to mention - it is even better if you look at races with 6 or less runners:

Odds On: 49 selns, 32 wins (65% SR), 5.30 profit (10.8% POT)
2.00-2.90: 79 selns, 31 wins (39% SR), 0.20 loss (0.2% LOT)
3.00+ : 12 Selns, 2 wins, 5.80 Loss (48% LOT)

Hi to the Sages,

So does all that [mind blowing] lot mean I throw my money at these guys for there tips or what?

Cheers.

Crash, did you intend this response for this thread?
If so, these are not paid selections, they're just doing a study following the performance of favourites in small fields.

Shoto,

I only ment it in the sense that: "does it mean that the way to go in punting, is to seek out short priced favotites?" or "to throw my lot in with that sort of punting?" Tongue in cheek way of asking.

Sorry to confuse.

Cheers.

Hi Crash,

You don't have to pay anyone for the selections, simply note down any metro race that has less than 8 runners and back the horse which is odds on.

I'm not saying that this will hold up forever, but it's certainly worth monitoring for the next few months.

Many aviod favourites like the plague, as they think there's no value there. There is, if you're selective.

partypooper,

sorry missed your earlier posting re prepost.

I don't have any way of assessing the prepost price performance, but I'd imagine you'd do ok backing 1/1 or less, especially in small fields, as they would almost certainly start odds on in a small field.

Certainly if you looked at the next price in the prepost market and it was say 5/1, you'd be pretty confident that the favourite would start odds on.

I'm with ya. Interesting though, some of those figures scratching out a profit on only the odds on.

Thanks all,

Are those Trees I can see amongst the wood?

Cheers.

Chrome! thanks for that. Yes have been very pleased with my results recently. What I'm doing is using several different methods of selection independently to arrive at a set of selections, but then only betting when all methods point to the same horse. The selection methods are basically ratings based, combined with other known advantages, so I'm quietly confident. I have been backing for the place so far but the selections are actually showing a better POT for the win, so may change that soon, just want a longer "look' first.

Well I tried a little experiment today.

Had three small bets today, just on the shortest Tote price where nothing ealse was close to it ... without even knowing anything about the horse!... a system I am not about to launch into full time, just had some fun.

First bet of $50W won, 2nd bet of $50 just lost but the winner did shorten from about $8 to $4.50 in final minutes. Third bet of $100 won. Just over 150% collect on outlay.

Now surely that points to somthing interesting going on [other than my recklessness]?

Cheers.

crash,

doing that on any old races might not and probably won't work.

I have only assessed this on Metro class races with 7 runners or less and fairly limited data, so please be careful.

Be careful[?] Ha Ha

Well it was just a tryout. Now I'll throw in some study to include field size, race class, And look at the horses form etc.

That experiment though, is a pointer.

Cheers.

Crash,
just having a quick flick around with this I dont think its the size of the field that really matters - it might be more the amount by which a horse is favourite by.

try the following...
thoroughbreds - select the favourite for a place if the win price is $3 or more greater than the next runner at the start. my gut feeling is that you might be best to exclude metro races from this (weekday and weekend) because they do some funny things to favourites and you would obviously need to keep an eye out for special weather or event conditions that might make it advisable to back off - and in this case because you are going for the place I would not take ntd races.

standardbreds - the words trots and favourites always suggest profit, but if you also took your idea into this area then I would try the same $3 better than the others method, leave out ntd's and any horse with no previous form.

my quick research suggests both would give you a POT rather than a LOT but Im sure one of the database gurus will prove me wrong and tell us these methods would give you a long term loss.

but I like the look of them just the same
:smile:

see ya
Every Topic

Every Topic,

I know there are people who can win on the place, but when I tried it over a few weeks [1wx4p] it's profit was nowhere near what I would have collected beting for the win only. The final place price is just too volatile and crashes right on or after the start far too often.

It's just not my cuppa.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-02 10:57 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-02 10:58 ]

agreed Crash,
the old place betting does involve a bit of getting used to especially at the trots where the pool is smaller.

but after a while the fog clears and the science shines through :smile:

usually you will find that a horse offering only $1 ($1.04 on NSW) a few minutes before the start will go up in price in the last moments whilst a horse that is favourite but paying $1.50+ can crash to $1 as the horses hit the release point.

last week I was watching a race from Harold Park on the Tuesday. the horse I wanted was showing $1.04 as the horses formed behind the barrier, as they set off it crawled to $1.10 - which gave me hope.
I kept working the refresh button as they wound around to the release point and slammed my money on when it hit $1.40 with about 100 metres to go before release.
it closed at $1.70 and romped in for the place.

but you do feel like you have earnt the dough !!

see ya
Every Topic

everytopic, it can be a bit frustrating watching the tote, on Saturday I was watching P Harveys mount in the 1st (forgot the name) waiting for a minimum of $2, it was showing $1.50 to what seemed to me to be the last second, so I refrained, the darn thing romped in(of course) and paid $2.10c.
I've found though , overall it probably evens out if you just let em run with your cash anyway, i.e some pay under, some pay over.

Everytopic,

Had a quick look at your $3 premium idea and it didn't seem to hold up in the long run. BUT there was an interesting trend in the Saturday Metro figures - basically look at favourites which are priced at under $3 on Tabcorp AND where the "premium" over the next runner is between about $1 and $1.50.

Too tired to go into full details tonight but it looks like it has some potential.

becareful wrote...
"Had a quick look at your $3 premium idea and it didn't seem to hold up in the long run. BUT there was an interesting trend in the Saturday Metro figures - basically look at favourites which are priced at under $3 on Tabcorp AND where the "premium" over the next runner is between about $1 and $1.50.

BC, I assume you are using Tabcorp prices.
I was looking at this yesterday and played around with it on trots races (for Tuesday) and noticed that a few runners that qualified on qtab wouldnt have qualified if I was using NSW prices.

maybe it would all even out in the wash but the difference between TAB's makes for tricky analysis.

let us know how your Saturday numbers stack up.

see ya
Every Topic

If more than one tote was used to work out the bet a more accurate selection would be the end result.

in the last newsletter it said jeremiad was favourite at ~ 3.30 but regent street was favourite at even money .

any comments neil. cheers mate.

umrum

Regent Street started at $3.40.

Hi guys

Just following up one of the earlier posts, I am wondering if one of the database gurus could do me a favour.

I was wondering what the stats are on:
3 to 7 runners
Starting price < $2.00
All races, all tracks

This is basically the same system which has been the main gist of the thread, except that only considered metro tracks on the Saturday. Lets hope the results are equally as good for the more general system. Thanks in advance.

Hi Darren,

Sorry, I'd oblige but I only keep records of metro tracks. The time involved for me to do all venues properly would be a fulltime affair.
Perhaps, someone with a larger database could oblige.