what is it with people that post on this forum.i still cannot believe that people think that systems on sale work.
how many people do you have to hear stories of being sold fraudulent systems before you stop knocking your heads against a brick wall and asking the most ridiculous questions as to whether this system or that system works.it all boils down to one problem and its called laziness.
too lazy to work out something or your own.i spent years trying to work out a system on the horses researching thousands of results on the internet stumbling and stumbling but not giving up.that is the key.not buying so called systems that are advertised by charlatans.
the method that i use which is a multiple win bet method is something that took me years to work hitting so many hurdles along the way.i even had the patience to follow it for 6 months without placing one dollar on the selections before i would start.
to all you people on this forum i would tell you now.i would not sell the method that i use for any ammount of money.because it is based partly on longer priced selections it would be foolish for me to sell it as all it would need is for x ammount of people to invest heavily to affect the dividends.
also no ammount of money would pay for the thousands of hours spent trying to work a system out.i am not writing this letter to make a claim that i have some holy grail.there is no such thing.there is no guarantee that my system will continue to work but going on past results and how i have gone since betting it looks favourable.
all i am saying is try and work something out yourself.no one sells a winning system and no one ever will.believe me it is not in their interest to do it.put in the hours and try unique concepts and you will work something out.not by giving your hard earn to some charlatan.
i have had to quit my job to do this as i do not know what selections i will have till approximately 2 minutes till race time.that was the gamble i had to take but it has been worth it.for now.who knows how any method will continue to work.
i hate seeing people losing thousands purchasing so called systems.that is something that happened to me back before i got off my bum and decided to work out something for myself.

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-09-23 22:27 ]

Welcome to the forum ellinas.

Your post has a couple of contradictions.
You say that systems for sale will never work, and yet you have devised a system yourself and been able to quit work to do it full time.
You have been able to spend thousands of hours testing and trialling, and that's to your credit, but there are those punters who don't have that kind of spare time due to family or work committments.
Surely, apart from the "charlatans" there are reputable tipsters who do the hard work for you - such as propun packages etc.

Example: I don't have the time to run thousands of simulations based on AFL past results, and am currently receiving the tip from the Propunter AFL package.
I'm showing a good profit, without their analysis, I wouldn't have a clue.


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-08-20 20:47 ]

Chrome Prince, would you like a straw with that. JUST KIDDING. People are curious, that's why they ask questions to the experts on this forum. Wheather it be stupid or not why do we have to pass judgement. I've had the pleasure to meet and share a couple of betting days at the track with "Magic Flute", remember him? This guy is incredible in his approach to life and his drive to positively be constructive. He claimed to have designed a system with little things that he picked up from this forum and the web and that "His" system worked. Well I can tell you that it ************ works! I've seen the system in action and it's awesome. Goes to show that anything is possible.

superfox,
not sucking up to management - just giving credit where it's due.

It was more to explain that sold systems for various forms of betting DO work. Just a matter of assessing the credentials of the seller.

Re: Magic Flute.

Yes he did make his own system, and from what I gather it's still holding up.

Goes to show whether you buy it or make it on your own, there are definitely ways to beat the bookie whether it's horseracing or sportsbetting.

15 years on & mine still works. Why am I up so late....gotta love those UK races...e/w all day (or night)

Everybody uses a System, paid for or otherwise.

Hey Mark! E/W ?

Was wondering if it had merits. I have been trying out a 1 win x 4 place [system?] for the last week with great success [for the last week]. Will it turn out better or worse than a straight win approach in the long run. That's what I'd like to know.

crash,

Mark uses the odds to his advantage, in a method that ensures he wins on the race he bets on. I won't go into it all, but it's about small fields and percentages.

He knows what he is doing and has been doing it for years with success.

Your method will probably drag your profit on turnover down betting eachway versus win only.

But it depends on your long-term strike rate for both win and place and average dividend.

Once you know these figures, I can answer your question.

Crash
I don't like the idea of having a larger amount on the place than the win, because you would be using a tote for the bulk of your place bet. Totes for the place offer by far the worst value there is (opinion). If you bet e/w have more on the shorter prices, because of the longshot bias.

Thanks Chrome Prince,

I recently changed my beting approach from backing two Horses per race to win at level stakes to one Horse to win level stakes, I can only provide figures for the last 112 races before I started [only last Sunday]backing one Horse @ 1 win x 4 place.

Total races 112 Total outlay 1380 units

Total Return 2507.35 units Total wins 26.

Hope that helps.

Cheers.

ellinas this is what I posted in the We can all retire thread on this forum:
Have a look at Horseracing systems the great con
http://www.propun.com.au/archived_b..._systems_1.html

Crash,

Are you having more than one bet per race?

Or are you betting a set number of units per race?

You said you were betting level stakes, so I'm assuming it must be one of the above.

While 112 races is a very small sample at least we can dissect it a little to give you a guide.

112 races outlay 1380 units.

I'm going to assume here that you bet 12.32 units (average) per race with one bet per race - otherwise the whole thing will be up the spout!

Your win strike rate is 23.21% or you can expect to collect on 23.21 races for every 100 races that you bet on.

Your average win dividend is $7.83 (if my assumption is correct).

Your return for 1 unit investment on 100 races level stakes is 181.73

Your profit on turnover is a whopping 81.73%

You sure you're betting level stakes? :eek:

Now I went to my database to find out the average place dividend of horses paying between $7.00 and $8.00 at the jump, as a rough idea of your expected place dividend.

I took a sample of 877 such horses at metropolitan tracks (because the pools are bigger) and came up with an average place price of $2.25.

The problem is that I don't know your place strike rate to work out the result.

If you can provide a place strike rate, we can take it from there as a rough guide.

The above analysis is only a rough estimate.

Chrome Prince,

Thanks for all that figurin' [that sort of stuff makes my head spin!]. I have checked my books and the figures are correct. I am profiting more than normal but probably because I'm puting more effort into the form as I'm now relying on one Horse!

I don't record finishing position if I loose. I copy all bets into a hard book from my on screen betting account once a week because I don't have many bets [no recording of placings if I loose], but my horses regularly place [thats why the betting statergy change].

I don't use a progressive staking system but my bet size fluctuates depending on how large an overlay I believe is on offer. Basicly the larger the overlay, the larger the bet. 50% of those profit figures you worked out are from bets with more than ten unit wagered [if that helps].My average win is usualy about 3.50/6.00, but I get some big payouts on what I consider large overlays [usualy mid-week or Sun. and often provincial] that distort averages. I don't think you could call that betting style progressive as I don't chase loses with bigger bets.

Does that throw calculations to the wind? 70% 0f my bets would be 10 unit bets and another 20% would be 20 units and 10% range from 30 to 100 units if that helps things?
Somthing like that anyway.
Was Ok with the "unit" until I tried to use %. Anyway, MOST of my bets are ten units [God I hate Maths past addition and subtraction].

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 15:43 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 15:51 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 16:02 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 16:12 ]

Hi Mark,

Thanks for the reply, but I dont use the tote. I use Divi+ and a phone bookie if I miss the 2min. close before the race with Divi+ .

Longshot Bias? Oh no, not that pitch!

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 15:38 ]

Crash

They let you bet e/w & have more on the place?, that's great.
Yes the old longshot bias again, (let's foget I mentioned it, otherwise it will take up pages & pages again)

:smile:

To give you any sort of accuracy, I think rather than revealing your actual past selections, that you should record every bet from now on and it's placing.

Then repost here when you have a decent sample using 1 unit bets for reporting.

Then I'd be more than happy to give you some feedback on strategy.

But you are definitely on the right track betting as you are on the overlays.



[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-08-21 16:23 ]

Thanks Chrome Prince,

The "unit" business totaly stuffed me up because by the end of that series of 112 bets my "average" bet had changed twice due to winnings [not loses]. So average profits [and loses] naturaly progressed twice. An average overall had to be relyed on. Greater than my first bets, but smaller than my latter Bets [Average]. If you get my drift [?]

I've been keeping place records since Sunday and I will find out sooner probaly rather than later if I should go back to win only betting. Thanks for all your help and the figures.

Cheers.

hi crash,

i'm interested to know whether win or e/w or place betting is better for you.

i'm a win only man but sometimes on a roughie i will have 8 by 2 or 15 by 5 for example.

please post when you find out if you dont mind


cheers

umrum

[ This Message was edited by: umrum on 2003-08-21 16:54 ]

Hi Umrum,

Look, as for place betting I'm a complete novice. In 25yrs. of serious interest [and another 7yrs. non serious] in the punt, I have until last Sunday, taken no interest in Place betting [or exotics]. Win only, that's been me. Occasionly I have a place on somthing as well as a win if I seriously consider it a two horse race that only X will win and Y will place [ eg: W/F Syd. 20/8th.R3 Solid as a Rock to win and Orrange for second or at least Place, but could possibly win it. Look at the form and anybody tell me it wasn't a two Horse race?].
That was the result 1/2. Now to anybody who knows anything, that might have been a dumb bet, but I'd like a dollar for every time I've pulled it off. Bets like that and the amount of times my win selections Place, has got me into a 1 x 4 W/P looky see [see my tips for last Sunday, I was a lot better off with this approach].
Maybe it should be a straight E/W or somthing like 1 x 8, I just don't know enough about the Place to say.

I'll keep you posted about the experiment.

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 19:45 ]

IF YOU WERE TO BUY THE BETTING LIBRARY 3 FROM INRACING YOU HAVE ENOUGH THERE TO DEVELOP YOUR OWN RATING METHODS,AND AT $95 ITS A STEAL.