Hi All,
Just a little topic that might get a thread going that is not Kelly, spreadsheets,excel etc etc, but one to find WINNERS.

It never ceases to amaze me how the opinion of the majority seems to be one should only bet Saturday races because they are the QUALITY races.

I watch with interest when people are designing systems on this forum and just about in every one the same is said, "now filter out the maidens".

My own PERSONAL experience shows totally the opposite.

It is easier to find a winner in the lower class races than the higher, especially if you can get to the track, and it all comes down to local knowledge.

I have just recently met a guy that has lived off the punt all his life (65 years old). He is from Melbourne and confirmed my own thoughts. He ONLY bets VIC races and 80% of his bets are in the provincial meetings.

Just for example check yesterday's results in the QUALITY races across the country then check the results off all the "races we are supposed to leave alone".

This is only 1 day but go back over the years and I guarantee there are MORE favoured runners win the low class races than high.

Any other opinions on this? :roll:

Cheers

Kenchar, I totally agree with your mate and you, as you obviously agree with it.

Over the years I have been generally more successful on non metropolitan courses than in the city.

And I have been more successful midweek particularly Tues/Wed/Thur

As with your mate, I do favour Victorian courses but I do have a foray into NSW regularly. I stay away from QLD and SA.

I maintain a list of jockeys that I use when making my selections.

If I bet in maidens, it is only in 1600m.

I listen to the selections and use them as someone's opinion ( 2 views preferably) and
I read the form.

AND I LOOK FOR SOMETHING OUT OF THE NORM.

what works for one may not work for the other.

Personally I have most success over the spring and autumn carnivals. Mainly because horses are aimed at a particular race and I find it easier to work out whether they've had the right prep and form to win. I've had good results metro midweek, but not prov unless it is basically a metro meeting.

I have a bit of a theory midweek. Sometimes many punters leave them alone so that if a big betting stable has a crack at one and you like the other you can get massive divis.

cheers
umrum

Hi kenchar,

A while ago I did an analysis (oops) of the various strike rates of favourites on Metro tracks versus country/provincial.

Amazingly they were outstandingly similar give or take 1 or 2 percent.

Where you have the edge on the statistical punter (for want of a better term) is being on track and word of mouth etc etc with maidens is exactly what you need.
I leave out maidens and lower classes purely because I don't have access to this kind of information.

It's a credit to you that you do, and use that information to your advantage.

I should add that my strike rate on certain tracks is far better than others and would never back ALL Metro track races.

If you look at some of the huge odds results lately I stayed away from the race for various reasons such as:

Track condition poor
Field too large in size
My definition of class was not there
Race was a raffle with too many unknowns
Unexposed form

To me the Cup yesterday was lacking class and had far too many unknown factors.

This is evidenced by She's Archie running so well when her form was so lower class compared to other better credentialled horses.

One could have backed her in retrospect given that Geelong Cup form held up earlier in the day with Zazzman winning - but I didn't.

In summary, the statistics are very similar whether it be country or metro tracks taking into account comparable track conditions and field sizes.

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-11-05 14:51 ]

i thought the cup was pretty easy this year.

Gday All,
I am never keen on Maidens, mainly for the reason that there is way too much guess work in them. The early 2yo races are a 4 legged lottery as well. I like to be able to have information that I trust in front of me when i am looking at races and I find in Maidens (and by this I mean races with lots of 1st starters) that I end up guessing. You know, like is waterhouses's 2yo unraced colt better than Hawkes'unraced colt.. not to mention Mckevoy. how the hell anybody can pick a winner of a race in SA where he has 1st starters is beyond me :smile:

Personally I seem to make more money betting Country meetings.. I dunno why it just seems to work out that way. Lots of people look down their noses at that sort of Racing but I gotta say that the $19.80 I got on Honeyed, that I rated as a $4.40 chance, at Hamilton on Monday, gave me as much pleasure as the $15 odd i got on Fields of Omagh in the Cox Plate or the $15 for Kablammo yesterday. My old dad always taught me a winner is a winner no matter where ya jag one. The other thing I love is being able to get to the Port Macquarie or Taree tracks... there is nothing like it :smile:

The Spring carnival is the only time of year that my strike rate generaly goes down.
Lost on Flemington yesterday but cleaned up at Bairnsdale while on the track.

Cheers.

Hi all,
Some good answers and opinions.

As I thought we all have our own ways of finding that elusive winner.

One thing I didn't mention in the original post was that I only look at the low races at the track where I am. The amount of LOCAL knowledge there is unbelievable, it's basically getting to know who to watch.

As I just said in another thread I have gone a whole day with NO bet.

Cheers

HI ALL

I NEVER USED TO BET ON COUNTRY RACES EXCEPT THE COUNTRY CUPS MAINLY VICTORIA, LEADING UP TO THE MELBOURNE CUP, AS I HAVE ALWAYS FOUND THEM TO BE OF GREAT ASSISTANCE IN PICKING A LONG PRICED PLACE BET FOR THE CUP. YESTERDAY WAS AN EXAMPLE WHEN I TOO SHE'S ARCHIE TO PLACE AND THE QUINELLA MAKYBE DIVA AND SHE'S ARCHIE. THIS YEAR I HAVE BEEN TAKING MORE INTEREST IN THE VICTORIAN PROVINCIALS AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE MY DAYS OFF AND I ENJOY WATCHING SKY CHANNEL AND HAVING A FEW QUINELLA'S. I HAVE BEEN VERY SUCCESSFUL AND AM SHOWING QUITE A PROFIT.

LADY BE GOOD

XPT

Which bookies are left at Port & Taree?, I was one of them many years ago. Seems like a lifetime ago.

Mark

You were a bookie at Port Mark ? How about around 15yrs. ago ? If so you probably got your hands on a bit of my money as the brake and I were there for a few years.

Went through the place a couple of weeks ago and boy, it has been developed to death. Sleepy Port no longer [no offence ment xtp].

Cheers.

Crash

I go back 18 years, didn't last long though, not enough readies in the pocket. However 15 years ago I was there on the punt, lived in Port for 7 years, left just as it was starting to grow. Can't imagine what it's like now. I do know that they have streetside dining now, something that Council knocked back on our restaurant around 1987. From memory, "we'll never have that sort of thing here", was their reasoning. Mus have been ahead of my time, hehehe.

We were there at the same time. I was the Head Chef at the Hotel/Motel up on the hilltop overlooking the beach. Can't quite remember what the name was but it was the only one there then [not now].

Do yourself a favour and remember how it was. Going back would make you weep. Constant peek-hour traffic and a jumbled mess from sheer developer and council greed. All the 'space'[and old houses] has gone but the narrow road in and out is the same [!] with great big Kentucky Fried and other obnoxious Yanky 'dinners/petrol' standing out like a sore thumbs at the highway turn off.

Cheers.

[quote]
On 2003-11-05 22:11, Mark wrote:
XPT

Which bookies are left at Port & Taree?, I was one of them many years ago. Seems like a lifetime ago.

Gday Mark,

names I am no good with, but the same old faces turn up each meeting.. at a normal meeting we have about 6 bookies in the ring.. One that springs to mind is a guy called Russell Salt.. I don't bet with the bookies as a rule because they dont seem to have much of a go.. I think they are only liable to stan you to 1k, I'm not even sure of that now. As an example of not having a go... a few Sunday's ago, may be 6 months now, I actually had a bet in a Maiden at the insistence of my partner.. She had picked out a Milligam 1st starter called Impala Bullet.. ( you may have to check the name but i', pretty sure thats it). well I backed it with a bookie and got $21.. I thought I had done very well, when I went to the TAB window to collect for my partner she had got $43 with the TOTE.

On Port Cup day the undercover area behind the Ivan Ivermore Stand is aabsolutely Chokkas with bookies and punters,, is a great day

As for Taree.. the bookmakers are pretty much the same as they are at Taree, usually the same mob,

[quote]
On 2003-11-05 23:04, crash wrote

Went through the place a couple of weeks ago and boy, it has been developed to death. Sleepy Port no longer [no offence ment xtp].

Gday Crash,
no offence taken. I agree with you, they have ************ed the place in my opinion. I see in another post you have a go at the donut on the hiway... couldnt agree more.. I moved up here about 20 years ago from sydney. and there is no resemblance between now and then.. I actually live a bit away from port in a small town on the beach but if I said I was from there most pple would not have a clue where I meant.. But again I agree about Port... They have over developed the joint..

XPT
That small town wouldn't be Bonny Hills would it?, nice spot.
When I was in Port, there were around 8-10 bookies on the locals & the same again on the interstate. Don't recognise the name you gave, is the "one-armed bandit" still around?

XPT
That small town wouldn't be Bonny Hills would it?, nice spot.
When I was in Port, there were around 8-10 bookies on the locals & the same again on the interstate. Don't recognise the name you gave, is the "one-armed bandit" still around?

YESTERDAY 31 BUSH RACES

WINNING FAVS 13
WINNING 2nd FAVS 9

Tonight we'll see how many 1st+2nd FAVS win from today's QUALITY RACES.

Cheers

Kenchar,

Good angle. have a look at how many fav./2nd fav. won during the spring carnival in Melb. Can count them on one hand and mostly in the minor events on the day.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-11-08 09:51 ]

Kenchar,

I would not be lining up the fields of 24 runners at Flemington and the bush races.
The outcome will be distorted.

The long term averages for favourites is identical.

Whether you favour bush or city, one has to be selective - that's the winning factor.