Something different for anyone interested in dutching place prices.

The following race with 12 runners.
10 runners dutched with the 2 favourites left out.
Total bet $34.
Approximate returns if....
3 places scored. Return stake + 50%+.
2 places scored. Return of stake.
1 place scored. Return half of stake (minimum return).

Columns show TAB No, Place price, Betting units and return.

1. 1.30 0 0
2. 9.10 2 18.20
3. 11.80 2 23.60
4. 1.00 0 0
5. 4.30 4 17.20
6. 4.20 5 21.00
7. 20.60 1 20.60
8. 3.20 6 19.20
9. 2.40 8 19.20
10 4.70 4 18.80
11 20.20 1 20.20
12 18.70 1 18.70

Prices from Gloucester Park (Harness) race 9
Monday 24/11.

No.4 won with 6 and 10 taking places.

Anyone else dutching place prices?

How do I get this stupid thing to space columns properly?

Debug,

Interesting concept but I can't understand how you can dutch TAB place prices, as in the last minute of betting they consistantly change, (more than win) and then 10 to 15 secs after the jump they change again.

Cheers

kenchar,
Thats true, they jump around like a hairy goat. However from test runs I have done they seem stay reasonably stable if the place pool size is large enough to absorb last moment plunges.

Place prices on harness races are regularly not even a 100% book and all runners can be backed for a nett profit at times.

cheers.

On the TAB ????? don't think so.

The example above is over 350%, terrible value.

Doesn't sound like a good idea to me. Looking at your figures you can either break even, win 50% of your wager or lose 50% of your wager - so to come out ahead in the long run you need the "win" situation to happen more often than the "lose" situation. Lets say on average the true odds of each of the two favoured horses running a place is $1.70 (this is probably being extremely generous given the actual odds in the race you quoted) - this translates to each of these horses having around a 58% chance of running a place. If you work it out this gives the following odds for the 3 overall scenarios (win/lose/draw):
Win (ie. both unplaced) = 18%
Lose (ie. both placed) = 34%
Draw (1 placed) = 48%

So about half the time you will come out even but you will lose almost twice as often as you win - doesn't sound like a winning strategy to me!

Thanks for your responses.

I didn't put the post up as a "winning strategy", just simply another way of looking at dutching place prices. It is always handy to have another option to look at when betting on multiple runners.

Don't get too carried away with the particular example I put up. That is only one race and one scenario.

The 350% book value is lousey I know, but hey! That's the TAB.

I did mean 300% place [obviously]. It ain't that uncommon to find a book with less than the above in harness racing.

Cheers.

BASE: 30 UNITS TO BET WITH.

OPTION ONE:
TAB:DIVS/PLACE:BET AMOUNT:RTN:
1:1.70:10:11.70
2:5.20:10:52.00
3:3.40:10:34.00
=======================================

OPTION TWO:
TAB DIVS/PLACE BET AMOUNT RTN
1 1.70 12 20.40
2 5.20 9 46.80
3 3.40 9 30.60

OPTION 3:
TAB DIVS/PLACE BET AMOUNT RTN
1 1.70 13 22.10
2 5.20 8 41.60
3 3.40 9 30.60

??



PS
CAN MANAGEMENT PLEASE EXPLAIN HOW TO MAKE THE FIGURE FORMAT SO IT IS NEATLY SEPERATED AFTER PRESSING "SUBMIT". OFTEN WHEN TYPING IN IT LOOKS OK, BUT DIFFERENT AND MESSED UP WHEN APPEARING ON THE POST.
THANKS

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-12-02 09:32 ]

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-12-02 13:11 ]

Hi Puntz,

to get formatted text, you need to use the HTML code < p r e > at the start of the text, and < / p r e > at the end of the text (without the spaces in the stuff between the < and the >).

Then

     you 

         will

              get

                  spaces

                         in your text

Cheers,
Chris.

_________________

[ This Message was edited by: stebbo on 2003-12-02 10:47 ]

[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2003-12-02 22:14 ]

thanks stebbo,
don't have time for it.
It should just appear as it is written.

Puntz,
The general idea of the concept is to cover as many place prices as feasible to make sure you that if you do not win you will at least get some of your stake money back. eg. 8/9 runners in a 10 field race or 6 runners in a 7 field race. Obviously it has holes as does other systems.

Like other systems, it becomes more effective if you apply form or are handy at handicapping.

What I did not mention in my original post is that I am using it with a broader betting system that I am currently trialing.

ok,
yeah i have skimmed past this idea a few years back, but soon became a non issue for the time being at the time.
However, some of the stuff i did skim over and thought about, is the fact in most cases the place price's are just not paying enough.
It will just go to negative, meaning you get less back that your outlay, on too many runners.
The other way round, is if possible, to place-cover your bets on the most probable of a win bet losing, but getting palce. Do in a 10 horse race, where you back every horse bar the fav., then for the place, bet on the shorter of the win pricres, rather than hope for the long shot to come in. If you cover the long shot, it may be a waste of a place bet, if you leave it out, that gives you more units to bet with on the other runners for the place, calculated of at least breaking even.

=================================
I had to come back, it just dawned upon me,
why would anyoe want to bet on the place, if one is looking to back every runner bar the fav ?
Incase the fav. gets up an wins ?

Personaly I would keep betting till the fav loses. Cos it it will.





[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-12-03 00:12 ]