Well, hopefully I've established a sense of humour with my PPM system (Partypooper Plum Movers) But benieth that I am striving to make a living from the "punt"

I have two ideas on the go (seriously), both of which are showing a profit on Supertab, and that has been enhanced using best Fluctuation, but I am still doing "SOMETHING" wrong, I can't quite get to the stage where I am confident , and ask the pros. on this forum if they will annalise my investments say for 6 weeks or so (win or lose) any constructive comments are welcome.
My 3 win bets for tomorrow are as follows:

PR3- 3 Hartleys Dream
PR4-11 Thunderhawk
PR8-2 Prince of Vasac

Now, I had a bumper week last week so anything can happen I'm not suggesting that these are the best bets of the century, I merely invite any constructive comments (win or Lose) just so that I might gain some insight as to where I'm going wrong??

Just wondering Partypooper if those selections were from a handicapping effort or selections from a system ? The selections themselves suggest a system as Thunder Hawk [5 starts at the track for a lonely 3rd.] and even Harley's dream [taking on a horse having a decent class drop with ************ all wt. difference between them] does not suggest a handicapping effort [both will win for sure now I have said that]. Really can't say that much though as WA is not a betting ground I know.
One would then ask how you intend to bet them ? Has that been decided in advance before odds are know ? Have you set your own price that will influence your decision on bet amount or bet/no bet ? There are many aspects that affect long term profitability. Selection process is only one of them and not the major one either.

My problem with systems is that I just can't stop myself from handicapping the selections with other chances in the race and usualy end up backing something ealse !

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-06 08:06 ]

Hi Partypooper,

It's a little hard to provide feedback unless you support your selections with comments as to why you like them as potential bets and what the value scenario is you envisage.

But, there probably isn't time for that now so I will add some comments on your first selection...

Race 3: Hartleys Dream

I see that is a contender. It has put together some wins by big margins but its worth noting that those races have lacked depth. In my view there hasn't been anything special about its speed in those races.

Examining its last run, it did appear to be ideally suited by the fast early speed and slow last section and only managed 3rd place beaten 0.8 lengths. The horse that won the race, Arken Silver, was a narrow 2nd in a Cl6 race prior to that and beaten 4.3L over 1000 by Hartleys Dream prior to that. It hasn't raced since. The horse than ran 2nd, beatig Hartleys Dream by 0.5L was Star Laser. It was only coming off an average Pinjarra maiden win.

So in summary Hartleys Dream (although carrying weight) was beaten into 3rd when suited in an average 3YO HCP race beaten by a prior 3YOCL6 winner and a Pinjarra Maiden winner. The figures from those races are only average and competitive with other main contenders in the field. This is no knock on the horses form, just a comment that in my view it stacks up similar to others in the race.

I don't have video comments for WA racing and I didn't see the run so I can't comment if there were any circumstances surrounding it. It does drop nicely in weight.

For what is is worth, I see Changing Lanes as the horse to beat. It's come off two solid performances in 3YO LR and G2 class where the pace was average without being overly fast in each. His figures are clear of others here. The form from his last run (0.2L 2nd to River Mist) looks to have held up quite well. The winner River Mist came out next start and finished 6th in the G1 Railway around some good horses like Roman Arch and Modem, beating home a horse like Tribula.

The 3rd horse that Changing Lanes beat home (Laetare) came out and finished 1L away in a 3YO LR next start. Magic Aces the 4th horse finished 1.3L away in the same race. Spirit Lady beaten 4L came out an won in 3YO G3 company next start.

In my opinion Changing Lanes has very good recent form in strong grade, the figures to go with it and the form references from his last run hold up nicely. Overall it seems to be stronger than the form of the others.

This is not meant to be a definitive yes or no answer about Hartleys Dream, it has a genuine chance. It's just an indication of one way of thinking which may be different to your own.

I don't really follow WA racing and I'm sure your familiarity with the conditions and runners is much better than mine.

Cheers :smile:



[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2003-12-06 07:27 ]

[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2003-12-06 07:29 ]

osulldj and crash, thanks for the feedback.Its really interesting to read how you disect the form. I used to analyse every race and spend many hours doing so, had lots of fun but still couldn't make it pay (consistantly) My talent (if any) seemed to be identifying horses that were better than their form suggests, or were unlucky in running, or dare I say it?..... "weren't trying" So it's very difficult to support my selections with comments, it's more of "gut feelings" not that I'm super confident about todays selections, I feel that any "ONE" of them can win or all of them. They are not system selections as such (though I do have another METHOD of selections based on Top raters which is also in profit) I do not back to prices, all are backed Top Fluctuation level stakes. All your comments are appreciated.

bets = 3
Wins = 1
outlay= 3 units
return = 2.5 units
loss to date .5 units
LOT = 16.66%

Partypooper,

Osulldj was just showing off !!

Without looking up the results, was the winner Prince of Versac ? Anyway, thats what I came up with and would have been my only bet of your three with Changing lanes to beat Hartley's Dream and no bet in the other race.

Off to Traralgon Cup Meeting today [Craigmoor/Just Cris for me] to make amends I hope for a loosing day yesterday.
It's a great looking day and the handbrake reckons she has the eyes picked out of the card.

Cheers.

PS: Nice win by Just Cris


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-08 07:14 ]

faith. that is the key to any system.
you cant pick the eyes out of racing.
the best i have been able to do is to evolve a catch all and work from there.
good day today.
good day yesterday.
always spring in launceston.
circumnavigating in sandown.
also kaprats.
i use my listed horse swing weight system.
circumnavigating minus 3.5lengths.
kaprats minus 1.8 lengths
almost spring minus 2.8 lengths.

12/1 12/1 6/1

faith. define where the winners fall and that it is not a fluke e.g. research.

but i bet small and enjoy my day in front of the tv unless i see an ordinary ride.

i often have a snipe at sydney racing. not a listed horse running yesterday until race 6
i have said it wont be long before they will be able to hold sydney races at taree.
then they can turn the sydney tracks into car parks.
i dont know whether there is a sense of humour out there but i hope so.
on the your point of constructive criticism it is a difficult science and we all go off on tangents at times. i suggest research the tangents first.
best wishes.

Topsy99,sorry you lost me there.....

i am saying have faith in your system.
define the commonalities of your winners and losers.
e.g. you tipped thunder hawk as a good bet.
he does not win often enough to be a good bet at any time.
i have done statistics on many horses and thunder hawk is one of them.
he placed in the geelong derby trial (listed race ) in october 2001 (2 years)
my statistics show that pre-qualified horses (listed) in the second year win 20% of races won by listed horses (actually) it is 15% 5 percent is won by horses longer than 2 years.
horses qualified in the past year win 80%.
so the strike rate is not that good for a horse like thunder hawk.
he may be a casual bet at best but a good bet. never.
this statistical link gives more confidence to your betting . sorry if i lost you.
i probably have lost you in this note as well but. i am saying define a common link and have faith in it.

[quote]
On 2003-12-07 08:13, crash wrote:
Off to Traralgon Cup Meeting today [Craigmoor/Just Cris for me]

La Mer: Crash ... Just a question re the selection of Craigmoor in the Traralgon Cup yesterday. I do most of my betting now on Betfair and was intereseted in one bet only and that was to lay Craigmoor for as much as I could in the Traralgon Cup, thinking it had little chance of success and was more than happy to lay it at the odds of 10/1 for a significant amount. As you are someone who selected it I'm interested as to your reasons (Don't think I'm having a go at you, that is not my intention, more one of curiosity as ti the basis of this particular selection). Rgds.

La Mer,

Sorry that you misunderstood the shorthand [Craigmoor/Just Cris for me]. Just Cris for me and Craigmoor was the handbrake's tip. When we I go to the races we have a bet each in each race.
Craigmoor does not race well from outside barriers so that was a put off for me straight away and a 5 length 4th. in a weak Geelong race last start inspired no confidence either. I never argue with the brake about her selections because Merphy's law is always looking for players. Craigmoore does have a very high win SR at 42% so perhaps that was part of her reasoning [?] Finishing last though was a suprise as it is a better horse than that.

I have been pondering the brake's handicapping methods for 16yrs and it's still a mystery. She does bag her fair share of winners though and on our honeymoon backed a quadi in only four selection for $600. Score yesterday from five races: 2 each but I did win more from our even bet amounts !!
Great day out and the eye candy in fashion on the fields [think hot day/skimpy clothes and a lot of champers] was a great bonus for this old ************.

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-08 09:58 ]

[quote]
On 2003-12-08 09:38, crash wrote:
La Mer,

Sorry that you misunderstood the shorthand [Craigmoor/Just Cris for me]. Just Cris for me and Craigmoor was the handbrake's tip.

La Mer: Ah! Faith has been restored - Craigmoor's career record is somewhat misleading in regard to its current performance - injury prone and having shown nothing at its two runs back this prepartion from yet another injury, it was hard to see it performing will enough to win yesterday third-up at 1900m. Rgds

partypooper i thought devils dance may have fit into your selections? ************ hard day at belmont on saturday.

Umrum, it was mate but only for the place.

The others were win bets (unfortunately) I've got 2 plans running concurrently

cheers pp. have you drawn any conclusions from saturdays results?

i.e Giadresco is no good.
Hartley's dream is.
Prince of vasac???????
I thought irish pride got up to his old tricks again on the weekend not running up to his potential. had a perfect run and didnt go on with it. I'd say the bookies had a field day.

Umrum, re: conclusions. Not really except, maybe a mechanical rule i.e. No bets in ladies invitation races, but of course I'm only saying that cos it got beat if it had got up at about 5or6-1 I think it was, I would still be wearing the smirk! The Prince ran it's usual good race I presume cos I missed it (work commitments) and I think and thought b4 hand that Hartleys Dream was a tad better than most people thought. Mind you I reckon the price available for Changing lanes was very good, and was a good place bet.

They only bet 4.60 on course about 5.50 on the tote(thunderhawk). Yeah ladies invitations make it hard i think Lacey is the best jock but it depends mainly on the mount that they are on. I tend to disagree with you on Hartleys dream in the sense that I think it is, or was the most overhyped horse in perth. Great win and showed it's true ability but on exposed form you couldnt back it. Thats racing I suspose.

topsy99, yes got you now. I've tried many ways to cut out some of the losers without
cutting out too many winners, I've tried mechanical means, and own judgement .But so far
haven't found out how.

My small profit has been made backing all selections, and I don't seem to be able to
improve it overall by being more selective, but I'm still trying and in fact thats why I started
this thread. Thanks for your feedback.

by having a defining method helps to eradicate losers. but. many will slip under your guard.
on sunday william of oz was running.
at murray bridge.
i had it coming up well a couple of starts ago. i had it coming up ahead of pipkin the listed race in adelaide last week.
but on sunday i let it go.
even though it had a listed placing in adelaide on december 2002 it paid $61.
but you cant get them all.
i back listed horses only.
i like them to be in on the swing weights (my own definition) and relatively fresh.
i dont worry about anything else.
if i have too many selections i go for inside barriers and the best swing-weighted horse.
as a punter if all the worlds punters were graded i would be in the bottom half but it is good fun and i get some winners.
speaking of thunder hawk when it won a few starts ago i had two listed horses in the race i backed the other one and let thunder hawk go after backing it the start before. it paid $38.
criminal isnt it.

Partypooper,

Have you tried sorting your records into race types/classes to see if they shed any light on where your main loss is comming from ? Are you backing horses in worse than dead condt.? Do your records show loss there ? Are certain tracks more profitable than others for you ? You get my drift and probably have looked at above but you should also look at how you bet and check out what you results might have been betting differently. You might find a lead there as selection is usualy not the whole story.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-10 08:44 ]

Crash, these days I'm always trying NOT to impose hard and fast mechanical rules.But obviously i'm getting something nearly right but not quite.On the question of race classes and types, I think this could be the problem as I do get confused with the comparison here., not in the general sense, I mean I know the difference between Octagonal and Thunderhawk, it's when the difference gets closer that I fall down I think (in Australia that is, in England things seemed to be much more clealy defined, although that might have just been familiarity on my part)

But for the excercise I will do a study and see if I can see a pattern.
I did notice my selections in races 1&2 showed a loss, whereas my selections race 3-8 showed a profit which was enhanced of course when 1&2 were left alone. But I felt that this was getting close to retro fitting again, what do you think? (any comments welcome)

Partypooper,

Prize money of races contested/won can be relied on as a good class indicater.

The first half of most cards [ usualy ] contain the poorest races. I don't often start betting until the 5th. race. Not always but races 1 and 2 are often maidens etc. and 3 and 4 probably have a fillies and mares or 1000m. race or class 1/2 which long term can all be a waste of time [ for me anyway ].

You will find some things or even/especialy habits that deserve attention. I used to 'like ' certain horses and that would influence my value judgement of it as a betting proposition or worse it 'owed' me money !! I don't do those things anymore thank God.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-11 00:13 ]

Thanks Crash, I find your comments very interesting & down to earth.

Now, Head on the block time again, an unusual 5 investments tomorrow so here goes!

PR1-2 Educated Money (no pun intended)
PR4-1 Covertly
PR5-2 Bonnie Brae
PR7-6 Hardrada
PR9-2 Regal Raider

All comments invited before and/or after the races.

You may have identified the problem area by your selections: Why the two 1000m races [1 and 4 ]?
Trouble with these races is that you can often loose your money at the barrier and R4 is full of runners with no form at all. I would be dropping these two races and spreading my money on the other three selections. Regardless what happens today that stratergy [dropping 1000m races] will improve your return.

If you check your records you will find a loss on 1000m races overall and a definate loss on races containing runners with no form whatsoever [I will pass by a race with even 1 runner with no form] as you just can't figure what surprises may be lurking in them. Why bother ?

Cheers and may the form be with you.

Point taken there Crash, is that your observaton on specifically 1000 metre races, rather than say 1000-1200m? And I agree entirely (normally) about races with first starters but I just considered this particular one a good one ( could easily be wrong) In other words I prefer to keep the "rules" flexible, but again I will do the excercise and see if that pattern emerges, cheers!

Distances less than 1100m are among the no-no races like maidens and jumps etc. due to too much importance related to the start. In a 1200m [or even 1150m] a horse slowly away still has some chance but rarely in a 1000m or heaven forbid 900m race. Other races I would put in the above catagory would be Cups and a lot of the big Stakes races [too many chances], fillies and mares [hormones can have odd affects here but mares alone are ok] transitional [city horses going down meet county cousins going up etc.] and classes 1/2 are dodgy quality also. Punters may dispute some of these choices but for my records they are a dead loss regardless of the odd winner [such as Educated Money ...well done].

We have so many races going on why settle for rubbish races ? I think the goals should be long term profit not short term glory.

Cheers.

Cheers.

Crash, I'm following your comments with intense interest, and no I have not got a smirk on my face as the only 2 you knocked won, my thinking is much longer term than that. But in a way typifies my dilema, if I introduce a mechanical rule I seem to cut out the very thing that I can claim to fame i.e. Covertly,as I said I had him down as a real "Good un" and so went against the golden rule of not backing when there is 1st starters in the race.

But to lay things on the line a mixed day today, Educated Money, and Covertly went exactly to plan and reasonably pleased with the Top Fluc. Hardrada had some excuses, but the other two were beyond belief!!! anyway still a profit on the day and overall (so far)
2 weeks investments as follows:
8 bets
3 wins
outlay 8 units
return 9.4 units
POT 17.5%

Partypooper,

Thanks for your results [saved me checking].
You had Murphy's law on your side from the moment I opened my big mouth !! However, I stand by what I have said obviously and your records probably do too as I would be amazed if they didn't. Where you go from there is really your call. Betting on those races though does identify a long term problem and that is a crux area for many punters. If they have a problem, they are looking for a solution to add to what they already do, but never for a solution that takes anything away from [betting habits] what they do. It's a hard one.

My return for the same period is 95.8% POT [not smirking either] from straight out handicapping and one little system I made up that is going guns and roses [saved my bacon yesterday]. What a shocker for hadicapers here in the east and good tracks too!!

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-14 07:03 ]

regal raider went up too much in the weights for mine pp. Went up 5kg to 54 and met le tru noir 2 kg's worse off on a nose win. Not surprising for mine. Bonnie Brae was dissapointing I backed beyond dispute in the race who will win again soon I think although had every chance on the weekend.
If it was 1800m(fruit and veg) I'm positive hadrada would have won. I still cant get over the fact that True STeel won. I've backed it 3 times this prep for 3 placings in weakish company and it comes out and wins a G1. Last year Blevvo did the same thing except he had winning form. It's outrageous.
Mercerdario was the best run of the day for mine(outside of the winners).

cheers
umrum

Umrum, thanks for the feedback, yes I broke my own golden rule backing Regal Raider, i.e. the majority of winners carry within 3.5kg's of their set weight last run. Guess I thought it could do it, and was proven very wrong. What can one say about True Steel except mmmmmmmm!

I've noticed that there certainly seems to be quite a few West Aussies on this forum. I must admit that all your talk about Perth racing tends to go right over my head. I don't often bet there because of the time difference and the total lack of information that we get here in Qld. You don't get much info about Perth racing on RadioTab and the Courier Mail Superform on a Friday doesn't even put the Perth fields in any more.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2003-12-15 15:28 ]

PP,

You did well on the weekend. If you had of cut out regal raider you would have a 50% SR. Bit unlucky with Hardrada and Bonnie Brae put in an absolute shocker. Did Royal Minx come close to qualifying for a bet. Just as a comparison my bets on the weekend
were

Spin on iN
Royal MInx
Mercerdario
Hardrada - Mogul small e/w

Umrum, re Royal Minx, considered of course but thought Shotgun Kid a bit close and Heavy Nova a chance, ...... so .... I was wrong again!!

Crash, as an after thought, d'yer reckon that if you have a fancy in race that has say one first starter that it's worth backing your fancy anyway and have a stake saver on the first starter??? providing the odds allow??

Do it regularly. I know I shouldn't but I have my bad habits too.

How about this for a bad habit: Had a no race day today due to obligations ealsewhere but thought I would a least get my system bets on early this morning. I don't need any form guide, just the pre-post odds and last start form line [from WA tab]. I was suprised at that amount of contenders at Sandown and the very small field sizes and for the life of me I had never heard of any of the picks [?]. 5 races and 5 bets. Checking out to see how the system performed around 5.30pm and was suprised at only one win at Sandown considering the mostly very short pre-post prices . No wonder I never heard of the horses, they were Sandown [park] greyhounds !! Now that is a habit I don't won't to pursue.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-17 18:06 ]

Crash

Sandown is spelt S A N D O W N

Geelong is spelt G E E L O N G

Today's races were at GGG EEE EEE LLL OOO NNN GGG.

:lol:

Thanks Kenchar,

Missed my copy of the Sportsman on Tuesday and didn't have a clue as to where they were racing. Galloping alzhimers ?

Cheers.

Geez Crash - that's a classic! :grin:

I hope you selected the fast starters given that the races were only 515m! :wink:

Thought Royal Minx bet of the day at Belmont last Sat umrum. Didn't let me down. :smile:

Chopping block time again 3rd week:

PR1-7 Prince of Vasac
PR3-3 Hartleys Dream
PR6-11 Celtus
PR7-15 Dead Eye Dick

Should get a least 2 winners there partypooper, go for it!