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Thought I would start a new thread, the other one is getting a bit too big!
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your an ideas man paddy!
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FRUIT 'N' VEG STAKES - 2000M
No. Horse Weight Barrier Jockey Trainer 1. Finito 58.0 Phil Humann 2. Emission 58.0 Paul Harvey Cliff Brown 3. Corporate Bruce 58.0 Hec Mc Laren 4. Main Stage 58.0 Allan Taylor 5. True Steel 58.0 Maxine Payne 6. Hardrada 57.5 Jason Whiting Lou Luciani 7. Kentiara 55.5 Robert Harvey (Jnr) 8. Free At Last (NZ) 55.5 Alan Mathews 9. Superior Star 55.0 Neville Parnham 10. Milanova 55.0 Tony Mc Evoy 11. Crimson Sakura 55.0 John Claite Robert Matthews 12. River Mist 51.0 Peter Knuckey George Daly 13. Laetare 51.0 Patrick Carbery Ted Martinovich 14. Spirit Lady 48.5 Fred Kersley EMERGENCY RUNNERS 15. Mogul E1 58.0 Lindsey Smith 16. Alibi Bay E2 58.0 Paul Miller 17. Magic Aces E3 51.0 Peter Giadresco 18. Heavy Nova E4 58.0 Fred Kersley Barrier draw tomorrow. |
(13) LAETARE is my top tip. Last start ran home strongly beaten 1len over this distance. Drops a massive 6.5kg on that run.
(1) FINITO is my next best. Ran a close 2nd in this race last year (1800M), running on strongly. Put in a shocker last start in the Railway Stakes. Can improve dramatically. (6) HARDRADA is my third choice. Beaten odds-on favourite (1len) last year in this race. Looks to be a much stronger horse this year. (12) RIVER MIST my fourth choice. Won the WA Guineas (1600M) is fine style 2 starts back. Not a bad run behind Hardrada in the Railway Stakes. Meets that horse 4.5kg better in this race. Good luck to all. |
Paddy i watched laetare's last two runs and i think he peaked on his run in both of them. I cant see him running 2000metres. I give river n=mist a top e/w hope. Hardrada is a risk over 2000m, he is built like a sprinter but on his railway run he is almost a certainty, he travelled about 1900m in the railway. Finito if right is great value, doubt he'll be 20/1 on the day. Pretty tough race, you have to respect emission, hard to see the rest of them doing any good.
In summation it looks like the class horses either have a query over their form/fitness and/or their ability to run 2000m while the 2000m horses it appears lack the class. It is one tricky race I have to put Hardrada on top from finito then emission and river mist. Hardrada Finito Emission River Mist cheers umrum |
superior star, crimson sakura and free at last may be value but all have to rise to the class. Very hard. The pocket rocket corporate bruce is also silly value.
[ This Message was edited by: umrum on 2003-12-08 17:52 ] |
Current WA TAB odds:
HARDRADA $3.40 FREE AT LAST $5.50 LAETARE $6.50 RIVER MIST $11.00 CRIMSON SAKURA $12.00 EMISSION $12.00 MILANOVA $12.00 SPIRIT LADY $12.00 TRUE STEEL $13.00 FINITO $15.00 SUPERIOR STAR $21.00 MOGUL (1EM) $35.00 MAGIC ACES (3EM) $41.00 CORPORATE BRUCE $41.00 KENTIARA $51.00 ALIBI BAY (2EM) $81.00 HEAVY NOVA (4EM) $101.00 MAIN STAGE $101.00 _________________ All the best from the West Sandgroper :smile: [ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-12-08 17:56 ] |
wa tab betting to approx 130%. what a joke. problem is soft bookies will do similar on saturday.
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Looking at the current odds, EW Corporate Bruce (40/1) is not as silly as you think umrum. After all he did run 2nd in this race last year beaten only 0.5 length. Kentiara at 50/1 is also another that looks to be over the odds (EW).
_________________ All the best from the West Sandgroper :smile: [ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-12-08 18:05 ] |
that was my point sandgroper. silly odds for a good horse. read it again. :razz:
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Quote:
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Why strange Chucka Khan winning, umrum?
_________________ All the best from the West Sandgroper :smile: [ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-12-08 18:18 ] |
obviously i didnt back it but really it has albany form, many in the race had solid form lines some of them winning formlines like thunderhawk and heavy nova(i backed it). Great ride by Olsen though, I think it was a leaders bias track on the weekend which helped.
cheers umrum |
The only thing strange about Chucka Khan winning on Saturday was the shortish price :sad:
Has not missed a place this preparation, start prior to Sat won a class 5 at Albany by 4 lens, has also won at Northam & been placed at Ascot. Last city start (prior to Sat) had excuses when unplaced behind two handy horses - Constantinople & Celtus. _________________ [ This Message was edited by: BettyBoop on 2003-12-09 09:20 ] |
Still sorting my selections for the Fruit 'n' Veg - the additional 200M (1800M to 2000M) makes it a little more trickier (just ask umrum, he has already tipped over half the field :smile: ) - the majority of starters look to be untried over the distance.
_________________ [ This Message was edited by: BettyBoop on 2003-12-09 09:25 ] |
i'm narrowing it down for you boop. :wink:
Hardrada Free at Last Finito River MIst cheers umrum |
Just half the field have won or been placed over 2000M or longer BettyBoop. I've put together a quick list showing longest distance each horse has won or been placed (1,2,3) at.
Finito 2400M Emission 2000M Corporate Bruce 1800M Main Stage 2000M True Steel 2400M Hardrada 1600M Kentiara 1800M Free At Last 2200M Superior Star 2400M Milanova 2025M Crimson Sakura 2400M River Mist 1600M Laetare 1600M Spirit Lady 1600M Mogul E1 1600M Alibi Bay E2 2400M Magic Aces E3 1250M Heavy Nova E4 1700M _________________ All the best from the West Sandgroper :smile: [ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-12-09 17:40 ] |
Fruit 'N' Veg field with barrier draw - which I think as per another thread, doesn't matter anyway :smile:
No. Horse Weight Barrier Jockey Trainer 1. Finito 58.0 17 Daniel Staeck Phil Humann 2. Emission 58.0 7 Paul Harvey Cliff Brown 3. Corporate Bruce 58.0 3 Hec Mc Laren 4. Main Stage 58.0 8 Allan Taylor 5. True Steel 58.0 13 Maxine Payne 6. Hardrada 57.5 16 Jason Whiting Lou Luciani 7. Kentiara 55.5 14 Shaun ODonnell Robert Harvey (Jnr) 8. Free At Last (NZ) 55.5 4 Troy Turner Alan Mathews 9. Superior Star 55.0 1 Neville Parnham 10. Milanova 55.0 12 Tony Mc Evoy 11. Crimson Sakura 55.0 5 John Claite Robert Matthews 12. River Mist 51.0 18 Peter Knuckey George Daly 13. Laetare 51.0 11 Patrick Carbery Ted Martinovich 14. Spirit Lady 48.5 2 Fred Kersley EMERGENCY RUNNERS 15. Mogul E1 58.0 15 Lindsey Smith 16. Alibi Bay E2 58.0 9 Paul Miller 17. Magic Aces E3 51.0 10 Peter Giadresco 18. Heavy Nova E4 58.0 6 Fred Kersley _________________ All the best from the West Sandgroper :smile: [ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-12-09 17:55 ] |
Hardrada should get out to 7/2 now even though barriers dont affect a horses chances :wink:
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NSWTAB Fixed Odds - Prices at: 12:13:15, 11 Dec 2003
No. Selection Win Place 006 Hardrada $4.25 $1.80 008 Free At Last $4.25 $1.85 013 Laetare $6.50 $2.35 002 Emission $11.00 $3.50 010 Milanova $11.00 $3.50 011 Crimson Sakura $11.00 $3.50 001 Finito $13.00 $4.00 012 River Mist $13.00 $4.00 014 Spirit Lady $17.00 $5.00 005 True Steel $21.00 $6.00 009 Superior Star $21.00 $6.00 017 Magic Aces 3em $26.00 $7.25 003 Corporate Bruce $34.00 $9.25 004 Main Stage $51.00 $13.50 015 Mogul 1em $51.00 $13.50 018 Heavy Nova 4em $101.00 $26.00 016 Alibi Bay 2em $126.00 $32.25 007 Kentiara Scratched Scratched |
NSWTAB Fixed Odds - Prices at: 11:12:36, 12 Dec 2003
No. Selection Win Place 006 Hardrada $4.00 $1.70 008 Free At Last $4.50 $1.80 013 Laetare $7.00 $2.35 002 Emission $11.00 $3.50 010 Milanova $11.00 $3.50 011 Crimson Sakura $11.00 $3.50 001 Finito $13.00 $4.00 012 River Mist $15.00 $4.00 014 Spirit Lady $17.00 $5.00 005 True Steel $21.00 $6.00 009 Superior Star $21.00 $6.00 003 Corporate Bruce $31.00 $9.25 017 Magic Aces 3em $34.00 $7.25 004 Main Stage $51.00 $13.50 015 Mogul 1em $51.00 $13.50 018 Heavy Nova 4em $101.00 $26.00 016 Alibi Bay 2em $126.00 $32.25 007 Kentiara Scratched Scratched Hardrada firming in. |
006 Hardrada $4.00 ($3.80)
008 Free At Last $4.50 ($4) 013 Laetare $7.00 ($7) 002 Emission $11.00 ($11) 010 Milanova $11.00 ($13) 011 Crimson Sakura $11.00 ($14) 001 Finito $13.00 ($13) 012 River Mist $15.00 ($14) 014 Spirit Lady $17.00 ($14) 005 True Steel $21.00 ($26) 009 Superior Star $21.00 ($31) 003 Corporate Bruce $31.00 ($35) 017 Magic Aces 3em $34.00 ($51) 004 Main Stage $51.00 ($71) 015 Mogul 1em $51.00 ($35) 018 Heavy Nova 4em $101.00 ($151) 016 Alibi Bay 2em $126.00 ($101) Hi Paddy, have included current WA Tab odds in brackets. WA Tab paying same or better for all horses except Hardrada, Free At Last, River Mist, Spirit Lady, Mogul & Alibi Bay. _________________ All the best from the West Sandgroper :smile: [ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-12-12 17:23 ] |
COLONEL REEVES STAKES (LISTED) 1200M - 20 DEC 2003 - ORDER OF ENTRY
1. TRIBULA........................................... ... 57.5 2. KAPRATS........................................57. 0 3. IRISH PRIDE...................................57.0 4. FAIR ALERT....................................57.0 5. SECRET REMEDY..........................56.0 6. EARLY EXPRESS...........................55.5 7. GOLDEN DELICIOUS.....................53.5 8. MODEM...........................................54 .0 9. CENTO............................................5 4.0 10. CATION...........................................5 3.0 11. KAME'S HOPE................................53.0 12. POLYGRAM....................................53.0 13. WYNDAM GLORY...........................53.0 14. DEAD EYE DICK.............................52.5 15. HOT SHOT BROTHER ...................52.5 16. DIFFRACTION ................................52.5 17. DARK 'N' DANGEROUS .................52.5 18. DOUBLE JEWEL.............................52.5 19. STOCKIE'S YARN...........................52.0 20. HARTLEYS DREAM........................52.0 21. MERCURY HALO............................52.0 22. CARRY KALI ...................................52.0 23. EASTERN STANDARD...................52.0 24. DEVIL'S DANCE .............................52.0 25. MOON TALK ...................................52.0 26. CENT DANCING .............................52.0 27. PURE EXCITEMENT ......................52.0 28. LE TRU NOIR..................................52.0 29. RISCA FLIGHT................................52.0 30. CELTIC RIDGE ...............................52.0 _________________ All the best from the West Sandgroper :smile: [ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-12-12 17:56 ] |
it's early days but if polygram is right looks to be a great bet. Very well in at the weights.
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I cant understand the wrap for laetare. River Mist beat him in the guineas by 2 lengths and Laetare peaked on his run, he didnt run the 2000m out last week(he's about 6 lengths better than the horses that beat him over anything up to 1600m). River Mist is the value in this race but I'm sticking with Hardrada and Free at Last.
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tips for 13/12
belmont Race 1 Spin on In Pure Excitement Race 2 Royal Minx Shotgun Kid Heavy Nova Race 3 Knight Academy Race 4 Covertly Cell Block TAngo Race 5 Beyond Dispute Bonnie Brae Western Pompeii Race 6 Mercerdario* Higgins Gold Race 7 Hardrada Free at Last Mogul Race 8 Shirbella Dante's Kalista Race 9 Raffle it but I'll go Family MOney from Le tru Noir from Trillemo cheers umrum |
Common sense= Hardrada
Partypoopers Plum Movers = Free at last Gut = Superior Star |
Colonel Reeves Stakes - 1200M - Belmont Sat
1 Tribula 2 OPN 57.5 A H Mortimer 2 Fair Alert 16 OPN 57 O R Sweetman 3 Irish Pride 19 OPN 57 N D Parnham 4 Kaprats 17 OPN 57 W L Radford 5 Secret Remedy 10 OPN 56 N D Parnham 6 Early Express 15 OPN 55.5 P J Giadresco 7 Cento 18 OPN 54 F R Kersley 8 Modem 5 OPN 54 T M Andrews 9 Golden Delicious 12 OPN 53.5 J P Taylor 10 Cation 20 OPN 53 G M Ayres 11 Kame's Hope 4 OPN 53 C H Webster 12 Polygram 14 OPN 53 C K Ward 13 Wyndam Glory 3 OPN 53 A J Mc Evoy 14 Dark 'n' Dangerous 7 OPN 52.5 K W Shanks 15 Dead Eye Dick 13 OPN 52.5 B P Graham 16 Hot Shot Brother 8 CL6 52.5 P H Jordan 17 Double Jewel E 1 11 OPN 52.5 G E Daly 18 Stockie's Yarn E 2 9 OPN 52 M W Pateman 19 Mercury Halo E 3 6 OPN 52 M W Pateman 20 Devil's Dance E 4 1 OPN 52 P J Giadresco _________________ All the best from the West Sandgroper :smile: [ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-12-17 21:28 ] |
Current WA Tab odds.
DEAD EYE DICK $5.50 HOT SHOT BROTHER $5.50 EARLY EXPRESS $9.00 IRISH PRIDE $10.00 KAMES HOPE $10.00 TRIBULA $12.00 MODEM $12.00 MERCURY HALO (3E) $13.00 KAPRATS $14.00 CATION $14.00 FAIR ALERT $17.00 CENTO $17.00 GOLDEN DELICIOUS $17.00 POLYGRAM $17.00 STOCKIES YARN (2E) $21.00 DEVILS DANCE (4E) $21.00 DARK N DANGEROUS $26.00 WYNDAM GLORY $31.00 SECRET REMEDY $51.00 DOUBLE JEWEL (1E) $101.00 _________________ All the best from the West Sandgroper :smile: [ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-12-17 21:33 ] |
HOT SHOT BROTHER
POLYGRAM DEAD EYE DICK MODEM |
(12) Polygram looks well in, will be suited by expected fast pace. Drawn out, so should get plenty of running room.
(16) Hot Shot Brother, further improvement expected. (1) Tribula, doesn't look well weighted but very capable. (19) Mercury Halo been racing below best, could surprise if gets a start. |
there's some very very generous odds for some good horses in the colonel reeves. I like polygram though he had to be floated over rather than flown. Dead eye Dick looks a massive chance on his last run. Irish Pride has to be respected though he is a non winner for mine in these big races.
cheers umrum |
Dead Eye Dick with the ponteif aboard appears to be a special.
cheers umrum |
Common sense = Dead eye Dick
Gut = Fair Alert PPM (Partypoopers Plum Movers)= Hot Shot Brother |
Don't you just love the way Celtus fights on in his races. Could go onto even better things.
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yeah it was great...that was my only selection in perth for the day
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Reported in the press this morning (the West Australian), that the Perth Cup will be run on New Year's Day at Ascot or not at all.
Belmont is being ruled out as it only has a capacity of about 7,000 compared to Ascot's 40,000. Test gallops (at Ascot) that had been due to take place yesterday have been postponed until Saturday. The turf club has reportedly also ruled out racing wider on the track at Ascot with a limited field. It is very possible that the Cup could be cancelled for the first time in its 116-year history. _________________ All the best from the West Sandgroper :smile: [ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-12-23 10:08 ] |
Perth Cup (Group II) 3200M - this Thursday at ASCOT
No. Horse Weight Barrier Jockey Trainer 1. True Steel 57.0 10 Troy Jackman Maxine Payne 2. Free At Last 54.5 3 Troy Turner Alan Mathews 3. Celtus 53.5 7 Peter Knuckey Lindsey Smith 4. Superior Star 53.5 9 Jason Brown Neville Parnham 5. Alibi Bay 53.0 8 Craig Staples Paul Miller 6. Caribbean Royale 53.0 1 Trevor Andrews 7. Conspirator 53.0 12 Paul Harvey Lindsey Smith 8. Glitzy Show 53.0 4 Graeme Ballantyne 9. Higgins Gold 53.0 2 Jason Miller Geoff Durrant 10. Indigo King 53.0 13 Bernadine Dudley 11. King Canute 53.0 6 Jason Whiting Lou Luciani 12. Mercedario 53.0 14 Steven Parnham Neville Parnham 13. Personal Drum 53.0 5 Vicki Lane 14. Shoeless 53.0 11 John Claite Alan Mathews _________________ All the best from the West Sandgroper :smile: [ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-12-29 17:14 ] |
CELTUS
HIGGINS GOLD SHOELESS GLITZY SHOW |
Higgins Gold Well beaten in this race last year but is racing currently in the best form of his career. Ran on last start over 2400m to be beaten 0.75 length by Celtus. Meets Celtus 1.5 kg better in this race. More mature stayer now and should acquit himself well. 5/1 in current fixed odds betting.
Celtus Perths stayer of the moment, winning 5 of last 6. Stepped up to 2400m for the first time last start, showing his fighting qualities to stave off all challengers. Should get a good sit throughout. Looks the one to beat, although at 6/4 in current fixed odds betting is well under true odds. Conspirator not won beyond 2200m but has been placed over 2400m. Will be ridden by Paul Harvey, so should be given every chance. EW chance at 14/1 in current fixed odds betting. Free At Last honest performer who has won 4 out of last 6 starts. Stepped up to 2400m for the first time last start, running on to be beaten 1.75 length behind Celtus. Meets Celtus 2.5kg worse in this race. At 5/1 in current fixed odds betting, under true odds. True Steel a repeat of last start effort (over 2000m) would put this fellow right in the firing line. Can he do it over 3200m? By JEUNE and did lead all the way to take out the Winter Cup (2400m) back in July. Currently 15/2 fixed odds. Shoeless On the comeback trail since running 3rd in the 2002 Cup beaten 1.5 lengths. Although unplaced this preparation, has shown glimpses of old form. Set for this race and has done the prep work. EW chance at 16/1 in current fixed odds betting. King Canute Ran on strongly to finish a close 4th in this years Derby over 2400m. Running on well last start when beaten 4.5 lengths by Celtus over 2400m. Meets Celtus 0.5kg better. Not the roughest but seems under the odds at the current price offered at 7/1. Glitzy Show Has performed well (showing good staying signs), since switching to middle distance racing back in September. If you can forgive her last run, at 25/1 a good EW chance. Mercedario Hasnt won past 2200m, but has been placed over 2400m. Battled on fairly last few starts and not badly treated at the weights. Some hope at 20/1. Alibi Bay well beaten in the 2002 Cup and recent form well below best. Perhaps a place chance on best form. 50/1 in current market. Superior Star Winner of this years WA Oaks over 2400m. Last start fought on well when beaten 3 lengths by Celtus over 2400m. Meets Celtus 2.5kg worse in this race. Some chance but under the odds at the current price on offer at 13/1. Caribbean Royale well beaten only start over 2400m although has run some nice races over shorter journeys. Battled on well behind Main Stage over 2200m on Saturday. Is a doubt at the trip and looks under the odds at the current price on offer of 18/1. Indigo King Has won and been placed over 2400m. Well beaten by Celtus over 2400m two starts back. Showed pace but weakened over 2200m on Saturday. Only a rough chance. Currently showing 40/1. Personal Drum currently racing well below best. Has a habit of bobbing up at long odds. Does lack class but may stay the 3200m better than a lot of others. A little EW wont hurt the bank currently showing 100/1. _________________ All the best from the West Sandgroper :smile: [ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-12-30 17:41 ] |
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