Betting in pairs.
For the win or place
Basically you are backing every runner but a little bit different
(12) (34) (56) (78)
What do you all think?
Stop when a pair is in front
Use a progressive plan somehow..
I dont think flat staking will work as there could be some run outs, I have'nt tried this concept yet, just came to me as everything i backed today was either other side of my numbers. Dogs that is.
Would you dutch to prices the two numbers or same amount on each????????
Please dont shoot me down in flames as it is just another crazy idea but i do at least give em a go.

Cheers

Have just looked at a day
81 races cost 162 per pair
(12) 98.9
(34) 122
(56) 75
(78) 102.5

Maybe a bad idea for all the races stop when in front for a pair..

[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-01-21 18:04 ]

[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-01-21 18:24 ]

If you are talking dogs, maybe you should spread the pairs to mitigate the "interference" risk, say (15) (26) (37) (48)

Only back the pair that includes the 2nd favourite, if this pair also includes the favourite, back the pair that includes the 3rd favourite – dutch them.

Doggie system that can't loose.

Don't bet the first race.
Whatever number wins back that number in the second race.
If it wins stop betting.
If it looses in race 3 back the winning numbers in race 1 and 2 to make a profit.
and so on until you back a winner.

the principle is that on a 10 race programme a box draw must win at least twice.
The earlier the more profit.
Only works on fixed odds of course.

Sound in theory
In practice.................

GG

I read that very same theroy in a well known mag the problem was getting the prices even at fixed odds might be hard after the 4th race....they suggested a give and take approach they did say that try to take small amounts is better like maybe $10 a race....if you have 8 races for the night and you can get better than that you might end up with $100 a night over 6 nights is not bad

[ This Message was edited by: Shaun on 2004-01-21 23:33 ]

You've gotta have guts and be at the track, but here's a system that makes you sweat, but makes a profit at the dogs ONLY.

As most dog races have 8 runners, (less if more scratchings), you can count on one hand the number of meetings where at least one track favourite doesn't salute per year.

Pick up any newspaper and look at the dog results, if you can find a meeting where the track favourite didn't salute - then I salute you :wink:

The aim is to chase the favourite til you win - then go home.
Do not carry over losses to the next meeting -start afresh if the worst should happen.

I won much more than I ever lost but the bookies got awake to me and wouldn't take the larger bets.

If Betfair ever start on the dogs, I'll go back to it.

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-01-21 23:31 ]

Got the old confidence back, eh CP? :wink:

:lol:

Any sentence extracted out of context can even make George Bush look silly.

The context of the plan is completely different.

My sentence "I have never done well at the doggies" relates directly to FORM ANALYSIS not profit.

The bad luck means that past form is unreliable in picking winners, but the statistics regarding favourites is not.

I cannot run my old system because of the reasons outlined in my above post, therefore I have no confidence in the doggies trying to use form as a basis.


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-01-22 20:01 ]

I do well on both the gallops and harness, but HAVE NEVER DONE WELL at the doggies.

I won much more than I ever lost but the bookies got awake to me and wouldn't take the larger bets.

Sounds like a contradiction to me, but who cares, this forum has it all, I love it.

:lol: :lol:


_________________




[ This Message was edited by: Chenille Prince on 2004-01-22 21:16 ]

I know exactly where CP is coming from, as a mate and I used to do exactly the same thing years ago, and I would still do it now,except go to Richmond, Dapto, Gosford etc and there is now 1 or 2 bookies.
Used to be 20+.
Ask for a $200 bet and they crap themselves.
Wenty Park has now only got about 6 local bookies and 2 interstate.
To do what CP said you must have fixed odds and the trouble today if you have a few outs and the bet builds you CANNOT get set.

Cheers

kenchar!! what a surprise :smile: How are you mate? Like your work, keep it coming :smile:

HAVE NEVER DONE WELL with regard to picking form - I say again, bad luck cannot be factored into assessing dog form unless you have a comprehensive video database or you only back dogs that led all the way in the best time of the night.

Backing statistical favourites is ENTIRELY something different.

Chalk and cheese the two postings.

Let me give an example:
Let's take the tote price 0 mins before the jump, the tote favourite.
(This is not what I suggested but will be a sufficient example).

TODAY
bendigo greyhounds
R1 Auntie Dorrie $3.10
STOP PROFIT

cessnock greyhounds
R1 Thundering Blue -
R2 Roaring Silence $2.40
STOP PROFIT

angle park greyhounds
R1 Explosive Image $2.60
STOP PROFIT

dapto greyhounds
R1 Rustic Gem $2.90
STOP PROFIT

hobart greyhounds
R1 Gunna Tell $2.50
STOP PROFIT

albion park greyhounds
R1 Twin Cam Annie -
R2 Today's Payday -
R3 Let's Go Joe -
R4 Cosmo Topper -
R5 High Tensile -
R6 Scope -
R7 Jack A Dandy -
R8 In The Frame -
R9 Little Looker -
R10 Barnacle Bob $2.50

sandown greyhounds
R1 Wings Of Fame $1.90
STOP PROFIT

YESTERDAY
the meadows
R1 Mouyong Maggie -
R2 Saint Galore $1.90
STOP PROFIT

maitland
R1 Mykonos Mel $3.20
STOP PROFIT

gold coast
R1 Size 'Em Up -
R2 Golden Golly -
R3 Size Matters -
R4 Incoming Dreams -
R5 Hilltop Cutie $2.80
STOP PROFIT

warrnambool
R1 Danbuck -
R2 Havoc Creation $3.20
STOP PROFIT

ballarat
R1 Ticking Title -
R2 Jazzy's Girl -
R3 Smokin' Rebel -
R4 Lynette Bale $2.60
STOP PROFIT

bulli
R1 Windgrove -
R2 Elite Force -
R3 Fancy Chic $2.50
STOP PROFIT

ipswich
R1 Super Faithful $3.50
STOP PROFIT

I think this more than answers the query.
You cannot get set with your wagers, if you experience more than about 4 losses - that's the only snag.

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-01-22 22:55 ]

NOW I GET IT ,

We have the one that accuses everyone else of posting under other names doing it himself or herself, or maybe 1/2 and 1/2. :lol:

Chenille,

C'mon baby where are you, come back to me.

This is just like the sunday night strolls you talk about. :smile:

Oh kenchar, you break me up, your just sooooo funny, keep them coming, no wonder you have such a big fan club, your my hero :smile:

I'll take that as a (conditional) "yes" Chrome Prince :wink: Good onya!

Simple system, but has anyone got any stats on a fav not winning at a meeting - perhaps a big ask, as there are many dog meetings everywhere, every day. Maybe there are particular venues to focus on.

I shudder to think how big a dent a "favless" meeting would make on the kitty, or what impact (depending on pool size & your base betting unit) you might make to the "expected" return, when you are down to the last few races, still waiting on that fav to salute the judge.

Anyway, food for thought - thanks Chrome Prince :smile:

EL Chenille,

AAAW GEE, I'm flattered, and now you've gone and embarrased me :oops:

Thanks for the compliment though, makes a nice change :smile:

Chrome, if your last two days figures are in any way typical, the way to go sems to be just back the fav. in the first race and stop. My maths says that would have given a 51.5% POT --- which would do me any day :grin:

Your welcome EL kenchar :smile:

Merriguy,

Actually the figures were extreme which is amazing, the average is to strike a winner in the first 4 races, more often than not, if a fave doesn't win in the first four races, it's usually races 8,9, or 10 before a win.

The long run of outs until the last race in brisbane is not typical - perhaps once every 10 meetings.

I have seen meetings where no favourite wins, but that is extremely rare - perhaps once every 3 months (betting every night all venues).
One can reduce the losing races by sticking with certain favourite races.

Example: No Maidens and boxes 1,2,7,& 8 or where the favourite has an empty box next to it.

Thanks for the added info., Chrome. Believe there is something there worthy of our attention. Even the fact that the doggies have only, at max, eight runners --- though I have an idea that in some parts of the world 10 runners may start. Glad its not here!

Chrome Prince, are you suggesting boxes 1,2,7,& 8 or where the favourite has an empty box next to it as a race to include or exclude. :???:

I would be including races where the favourite is in box 1,2,7,& 8 or where the favourite has an empty box next to it and I think that is what Chrome Prince has suggested, BB.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-01-23 15:04 ]

Not wishing to point out the obvious, but why limit this to favorites [or to the dogs for that matter ]? The same logic can be applied to No. 1 box or 2nd. fav. or No.2/7/8 boxes or whatever else that regularly gets up every meeting. It might be anything at any type of meeting.

For races just backing fav., 2nd, fav. or even No. 1 barrier using the same stop/progression method etc.
A second fav. not saluting is probably even less likely than a fav. not doing so. Less to worry about as far as pools or getting on goes.

Just thought I would try to broaden the method beyond looking at the fav. only without anything specific in mind, but just a few general examples that also throws in the possibility of stopping on a great price.

Cheers.



[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-01-23 15:35 ]

Include these Betty, the theory being that you want the favourite to stay out of as much trouble as possible and get a clear run.
Of course this is a perfect scenario, and without studying video, you really don't know if it's a fast, medium ot slow beginner.
If you had this info, you'd nail it!

What about when dogs used to race with monkeys strapped to their back over hurdles.

Pick a winner there :roll:

Not one of my best, but very close to appropriate :smile:


A wealthy man decided to go on a safari in Africa. He took his faithful pet dog along for company. One day the dog starts chasing butterflies and before long he discovers that he is lost. So, wandering about he notices a leopard heading rapidly in his direction with the obvious intention of having lunch. The dog thinks, "Boyo, I'm in deep doo doo now." (He was an Irish setter) :wink:

Then he noticed some bones on the ground close by, and immediately settles down to chew on the bones with his back to the approaching cat. Just as the leopard is about to leap, the dog exclaims loudly, "Man, that was one delicious leopard. I wonder if there are any more around here?" Hearing this the leopard halts his attack in mid stride, as a look of terror comes over him, and slinks away into the trees. "Whew", says the leopard. "That was close. That dog nearly had me."

Meanwhile, a monkey who had been watching the whole scene from a nearby tree, figures he can put this knowledge to good use and trade it for protection from the leopard. So, off he goes. But the dog saw him heading after the leopard with great speed, and figured that something must be up.

The monkey soon catches up with the leopard, spills the beans and strikes a deal for himself with the leopard. The cat is furious at being made a fool of and says, "Here monkey, hop on my back and see what's going to happen to that conniving canine."

Now the dog sees the leopard coming with the monkey on his back, and thinks," What am I going to do now?" But instead of running, the dog sits down with his back to his attackers pretending he hasn't seen them yet.

And just when they get close enough to hear, the dog says, "Where's that monkey. I just can never trust him. I sent him off half an hour ago to bring me another leopard, and he's still not back!!"

:lol:

Let's use the amended rules on yesterday's results:

No Maiden events
Favourite at 0 min
Boxes 1,2,7, or 8
Or empty box beside favourite.

SINGLETON

R2 Mint Solo -
R6 Amy Star -
LOSS

CRANBOURNE

R4 Nadey Bear $3.60
STOP PROFIT

BULLI
R3 November Shiraz $1.50
*Note - took number 6 because 7 was scratched, so empty box.
STOP PROFIT

ALBION PARK

R2 Fay La Fleur -
R3 What Price Glory $3.10
STOP PROFIT

GEELONG

R3 Sunsera Fire -
R5 Lindale Express $1.90
STOP PROFIT

RICHMOND

R2 Rivette Reason -
R4 Kid Sloy $1.60

Outlay 10 units
Return 11.7 units
17% POT using TAB prices.

I really can only emphasize that you need to be on track to discern the track favourite and obtain better odds.

Also it's designed to takeout a profit, not level stakes.

Chrome,
I have a friend that is VERY good on the dogs, and He will NOT back a dog unless He checks the weights ( which we used to do years ago ****, so very very important, and gets back to what you said, you have to be at the track.

Now wasn't that good information I just gave to myself :lol:

This would probably work at the trots as a lot of there fav's seem to win as well

GG

And yesterday's bonanza :grin:

WANGARATTA
R3 Mooney Ebony -
R5 Gallant Blaze $1.70
STOP PROFIT

BENDIGO
R3 Ikari Rapid -
R4 Lotsa Whoha $2.00
STOP PROFIT

WENTY PARK
R1 Brilliant Hand $2.20
STOP PROFIT

THE MEADOWS
R1 Triden Season $2.60
STOP PROFIT

CANNY PARK
R1 Bally Haige $1.70
STOP PROFIT

CANBERRA
R7 Silent Junior $2.10
STOP PROFIT

(only last 4 races available to bet on).

BETS: 8
PROFIT: 4.30
POT: 53.75%
S/R: 75%

SINCE USING AMENDED RULES....

Outlay 18 units
Return 24 units
33.33% POT using TAB prices.
61.11% win strike rate.


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-01-25 14:38 ]

More cream for the pie yesterday.

WARRAGUL

R2 1 Royal Incline $1.90
STOP PROFIT

TRARALGON

R2 Hello Pete -
R4 Ima Wild Child -
R5 Phantom Walk $2.00
STOP PROFIT

NOWRA
R4 Typical Storm $2.60
STOP PROFIT

SHEPPARTON
R3 Govidius -
R6 Proven Serene -
R7 Prudence Bale -
R8 Arejay Ace $1.70
STOP PROFIT

ANGLE PARK
R2 Rapid Class $3.50
STOP PROFIT

RICHMOND
R2 Always Lying -
R3 Braewood -
R5 I'm Typical -
R6 Poetic Token -
R8 Good Grief -
R10 Best And Bold $1.70
STOP PROFIT

WENTY PARK
R1 Spring Secret -
R2 Fancy Candy $1.80
STOP PROFIT

LAUNCESTON
R1 What's Up Doc -
R2 Thelma Kelly $2.90
STOP PROFIT

ALBION PARK
R1 Smiles Are Free $3.00
STOP PROFIT

On the day....
20 selections
8 winners
19.20 return
0.80 loss level staking.

SINCE USING AMENDED RULES
Outlay 39 units
Return 45.10 units
15.64% POT using TAB prices.

This is level staking but best used to take out a fixed amount per win. At this stage no meeting out of 39 bets has failed to produce the goods.


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-01-26 23:32 ]

Interesting, Chrome. But if you had followed my suggestion of stopping at a venue after two failures, the result would have been even better. According to my calculations --- 26.6% POT :grin:

When you get too many outs, it is obvious you are not going to cover them at level stakes given the average short price of the favourites. I know some will object that there really is no difference in following a third race here rather than a first race somewhere else; but I think you mentioned that the favourites do tend to come up more regularly at the early part of a meeting (?).

Just a query, taking out a regular stake for a win (as you suggested) surely can lead to huge outlays for a small return when a favourite is slow at arriving (pun intended!)? Or do I misunderstand you.

Hi Merriguy,

You're right in your assumptions.
At this stage it is still winning at level staking, but I have used the takeout principle in the past.

Yes the bets do get large, but if you have the bucks behind you, you can weather the storm if you have nerves of steel.

Alas, the major problem is betting on the net into small pools (you end up betting against yourself).

As Kenchar suggested, bookies at the greyhounds will not entertain bets over $200 these days, which is why they are a dying breed.

Thanks, Chrome. Enjoy your posts.

Thanks, Chrome. Enjoy your posts.

Tonight's Result

GAWLER
R3 1 Shezniak -
R10 1 Kernaghan Bale -
R11 1 Forever Solved $2.40
STOP PROFIT

DEVONPORT
R3 2 Midnight Saga -
R4 1 Flying Fort $1.30
STOP PROFIT

HORSHAM
R4 6 Clutha Bale - (empty box beside)
R6 8 Marbo Boom -
R7 1 Tanwood Black $2.00
STOP PROFIT

GOLD COAST
R4 1 Raven Petite -
R7 5 Surf Lorian $1.90 (empty box beside)
STOP PROFIT

LISMORE
R1 2 Major Go Fast -
R3 2 Energy Master $2.80
STOP PROFIT

WARRAGUL
R5 7 Dalhunty Bale $2.10
STOP PROFIT

GOSFORD
R2 8 Run Joshie Run $1.80
STOP PROFIT

IPSWICH
R1 8 Shadow Fantasy -
R7 1 Boo's Choice $1.70
STOP PROFIT

SINCE USING AMENDED RULES
Outlay 55 units
Return 61.10 units
11.09% POT using TAB prices.

Still no meetings have failed to return a winner :grin:

**Note-for those just starting to follow this, the STOP PROFIT refers to taking out a fixed profit per win, NOT level staking, althought it is showing 11.09% POT using TAB prices level staking.

Merriguy, after 200 races, I'll reassess your suggestion and incorporate it if it still improves the POT...thanks for the suggestion.


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-01-28 00:29 ]

Hi CP
Are you betting to prices or target betting including your losses in the targets????
or just betting to prices without including your losses.
There are some big bets if trying to make lets say $10
Just intersted in how your approach is.
Cheers

Hi good4th,

Firstly apologies for taking over your thread, I really should have started a new one but this all came about by being challenge on my statement "I have never done well at the doggies" and my seemingly contradictory statement of winning by betting on favourites in the past.

So apologies to you.

In answer to your question: The system is winning level staking (at the moment after limited bets) but I have used this approach of target betting chasing losses and a target profit.

I gave it away because the size of the bets betting into small TAB pools and lack of being able to place the required large wagers with bookies when there are a lot of losses.

You are correct, even chasing a $10 profit per meeting, the wagers grow to extraordinary proportion, BUT it can be done.
It also demonstrates, Kenchar's stop at a profit theory quite well.

If it keeps going as well as it has in the last few meetings, with no meeting failing to return a winner, I'll find some way to start again.

The filters are simply these:
MUST BE TAB FAVOURITE AT 0 min mark
BOXES 1,2,7, or 8
or must have an empty box next to it.
No Maiden or mixed maiden races (E.G. MAIDEN/JUVENILE)

There are all the rules.

Been performing well to date.

GOSFORD
R2 8 Fort Worth $1.60
STOP PROFIT

GOLD COAST
R3 8 Railroad Ghost $2.20
STOP PROFIT

WARRNAMBOOL
R4 8 Track Special $2.00
STOP PROFIT

BALLARAT
R2 1 Ruin Me Not $1.40
STOP PROFIT

BULLI
R2 2 Unique Girl -
R3 3 Furious George -
R4 5 Oxley Tiger (empty box next door) $1.80
STOP PROFIT

IPSWICH
R2 1 Newfound Ace $2.00
STOP PROFIT

Another great day!!!

8 bets
10.80 return
35% POT level stakes.

SINCE USING AMENDED RULES
Outlay 63 units
Return 71.90 units
14.13% POT using TAB prices

After 63 bets no meeting has failed to deliver a winner - ************ astounding!

P.S. Merriguy, I know what you're gonna say :wink:




[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-01-28 20:44 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-01-28 20:45 ]