Sportznut has posted his very successful outside barrier system and I have also followed the previous good/bad barrier threads, I thought I would see how barrier 1 fared with some of Sportznut's elimination rules.

Some minor success with this yesterday and I did a quick check of any Courier's I had handy (missing a few mid-weekers).

As discussed in other postings, inside barrier dividends aren't quite comparable to Sportz's outside numbers but still interesting results from small numbers.

(1) Qld, NSW, Vic, SA, WA TAB city meetings.
(2) At least 8 starters after scratchings.
(3) Consider only runners from barrier one.
(4) Consider only runners priced below $6.00 in paper pre-post.
(6) Must be having at least 4th run from a spell.
(7) The selection must have finished in the first 4 at each of it's last 3 starts.

Dec26 Adel 3-1 Pipkin PLA 1.60
Dec27 Bris 1-2 Dark Topaze PLA 1.30
Dec27 Melb 5-9 Pretorius WON 2.90/1.60
Jan08 Sydn 1-1 Pontifex UNP
Jan17 Melb 8-1 Si Senor UNP
Jan17 Pert 5-3 Local Product WON 2.70/1.50
Jan23 Melb 6-4 Zero Drama PLA 1.70
Jan24 Pert 5-3 Kame's Hope PLA 1.30
Jan26 Sydn 7-2 Crimson Gown WON 5.70/2.20
Jan31 Melb 4-3 Zero Drama PLA 1.50
Jan31 Melb 8-4 Gladiada WON 6.10/2.20
Jan31 Pert 2-4 Grand Era PLA 1.70

Not many bets, Jan 1, Jan 3 and Jan 10, city meetings but no selections for example. Database experts if you can explore, that would be great.

Cheers

Jimmy, I don't have a database, but I'll still have a bit of a look at it for you. I do actually like betting on both the inside AND outside barriers.

Thanks Sportznut appreciate your time and effort.

To Sportz and Jimmy,

Going by Sportz's outside barrier specials, and Jimmys December figures for his inside barrier system, they both average around 30 points a year. ( Jimmys December figures are up 2.8 points. So 2.8 x 12 = 33.6 points in 12 months. This is very rough as there are 52 weeks in a year and anything can happen ,but it does include his first 2 bets of Dec. that were unplaced)
I you had a bank of $10000 and you used 1% of that for each bet ,on a level stakes approach by the end of a year you should have about $13000. Not bad at all and better than the banks. If you use 2% of your bank you would have $16000 at the and of a year and so on. The question is what is safe, 1% half a percent , 2% or maybe even 5% ? ( I dont know)
What about a staking plan?
Sportz, does the outside barrier system perform ok during winter?

emu,
I'll probably get howled down here but if you are place betting with a high strike rate method like Sportz's you can use 10% of your bank.
That's what I work to with mine. $2000 bank $200 bets.

Cheers

Okay Jimmy, here's what I got from my results. Unfortunately this is only back to Nov20 but these figures are pretty similar to other tests I've done in the past. These are only the races that I bet on (no WA, no Tassie and no provincial races on Saturday). Sorry about that! I also used $3-$7 because that is what I use in most of my betting.

No 2yo or races less than 1200m.
At least 8 starters after scratchings.
In first 4 at each of last 3 starts.
At least 3 starts since a spell.
$3 to $7 pre-post.
Inside or outside barrier.

Okay, now for the results. For those that still think that barrier one should be more profitable than the outside barrier, maybe this just might change your thinking a bit!

All selections: 159
wins 31, return $148.50, loss 7%
places 93, return $170.30, profit 7%

Inside barriers only: 88
wins 14, return $54.10, loss 38%
places 48, return $80.00, loss 10%

Outside barriers only: 71
wins 17, return $94.40, profit 33%
places 45, return $90.30, profit 27%

Inside barriers (metro): 35
wins 5, return $24.20, loss 31%
places 15, return $25.60, loss 27%

Outside barriers (metro): 30
wins 5, return $40.00, profit 33%
places 17, return $32.90, profit 10%

Inside barriers (country/prov): 53
wins 9, return $29.90, loss 45%
places 33, return $54.40, profit 3%

Outside barriers (country/prov): 41
wins 12, return $54.40, profit 33%
places 28, return $57.40, profit 40%

So there you go. You can do okay if you simply look for horses priced at $3-$7 from the outside barrier which have finished in the first 4 at their last 3 starts in this preparation. In the test period it picked up a few good priced winners like Fiery Femme 8.60, This Manshood 10.40, Wild Classic 8.80, Crimson Gown 13.00 and Aurora Anora 7.70. I've always liked backing in form horses from the outside barrier, so I think I might give this a go. I'll still concentrate mainly on the 'specials' though.

By the way, for those that might have been wondering, here's a comparison of how the barrier system 'specials' would go if you used the inside barrier instead of the outside. I think you'll see why I prefer to use the outside barrier:

Outside barriers: 22
wins 8, return $35.00, profit 59%
places 21, return $35.40, profit 61%

Inside barriers: 16
wins 3, return $8.60, loss 46%
places 12, return $17.70, profit 11%

There you go. Hope all that was of some help! :smile:


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-02 17:49 ]

On 2004-02-01 15:31, emu wrote:
Sportz, does the outside barrier system perform ok during winter?


Emu, I don't have exact figures on hand, but yes, I have done okay backing the outside barrier in winter. Let's face it. On some of the wet winter tracks, it can be an advantage being out wide! I must warn you that I don't honestly expect the strike rate of the barrier system specials to remain this high all year round. There must be a losing run somewhere! If the strike rate did remain this high, that would be absolutely incredible!!!

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-02 17:53 ]

Hi Sportznut,

I don't know if this is difficult to do but what would happen to the results you posted on this outside barrier system if you limited the price range to $3-$5 (or maybe $4.40)?

I'm only guessing but it might just help the strike rate (but might also eliminate some of the better proced winners).

Quick answer: YES and YES!!! :smile:

YES, I think it may improve the strike rate a bit, but YES, it does knock out quite a few nice winners!


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-02 18:33 ]

Michael, I've just checked and you certainly wouldn't want to get rid of the horses at $5.50-$7.00!!!

Incredibly the win strike rate was actually slightly BETTER on those horses than the shorter priced ones, and they produced a win profit of around 82%.

OK so what about going the other way then and make the price range say $4.50 - $7.00 (or maybe even $8.00) and see what happens then? Does the strike rate/profit drop much?

This is getting interesting and I'm sorry I can't help you with the 'sifting' but I don't have the results in front of me like you do.

I tell you what. I'll post the results so you can look at them for yourself. I can't do it right now though. Got to go. :smile:

Thanks sportznut for the workout

Okay Michael, here are the results using horses from outside barriers, which ran in the first 4 at their last 3 starts in this preparation and are $3-$7 pre-post. I've included their pre-post prices for you to look at.

Nov21 Cran 7-2 Cosmic Coincidence (4.00f) WON 3.20/1.50
Nov23 SCst 7-11 Order Arms (7.00) PLA 1.90
Nov23 Warr 5-1 Bigtime Charlie (3.20f) WON 4.30/1.80
Nov24 Pake 5-7 Fontana Delle Api (3.50f) WON 2.70/1.30
Nov24 Pake 9-2 Legalese (3.50f) WON 5.60/1.70
Nov24 Quir 7-1 Kaysean D’Sunshine (6.00) PLA 1.80
Nov26 Sydn 5-6 Raid And Rule (4.60) UNP
Nov26 Sydn 7-2 Lodgent (3.00f) PLA 1.30
Nov27 Rock 7-5 Fiery Femme (7.00) WON 8.60/2.40
Nov28 Bris 3-1 Wind Talker (4.00f) PLA 2.10
Nov29 Sydn 8-1 This Manshood (6.50) WON 10.40/3.10
Nov29 Melb 6-2 Bohemian Dancer (3.50f) PLA 2.10
Nov30 Wodo 4-5 Murray’s Mate (3.50) UNP
Dec4 Town 8-2 Borzov (4.00f) PLA 2.40
Dec5 Bris 7-2 Iceni (6.00) UNP
Dec6 Melb 6-2 Karasi (7.00) UNP
Dec7 Canb 4-2 Red Robert (3.00f) PLA 1.70
Dec7 Staw 5-10 Harryallard’s Lane (7.00) WON 3.20/1.80
Dec9 Mack 3-1 Canny Fella (3.50f) WON 4.40/1.50
Dec12 Canb 7-8 Patient Planet (4.00) UNP
Dec12 Rock 3-3 O’Mine (4.00) UNP
Dec13 Bris 4-4 Kavorka (7.00) UNP
Dec13 Sydn 7-8 Gallant Son (5.50f) UNP
Dec14 SCst 7-8 Keep The Race (7.00) UNP
Dec14 Melb 5-3 Wild Classic (4.00f) WON 8.80/2.50
Dec18 Sydn 3-1 Air Of Grace (3.00f) PLA 1.50
Dec19 Goul 6-5 Mitigate (3.40f) PLA 1.60
Dec20 Bris 5-3 Red Mile (5.00f) UNP
Dec20 Bris 6-5 Helter Skelter (5.00) UNP
Dec20 Adel 5-5 Kooda Hurry (5.50) UNP
Dec22 Dubb 1-9 Wait For Me (6.00) PLA 2.20
Dec22 Tamw 5-1 Opal Chip (3.00f) WON 1.80/1.10
Dec23 Bena 5-5 Uncle Speed (4.00) WON 4.30/1.80
Dec27 Bris1-6 Crimson Gown (7.00) WON 13.00/3.70
Dec27 Melb 8-2 Dare To Be Proud (5.50) WON 3.60/1.70
Dec28 PLin 3-4 Rural Forest (5.50) WON 4.90/1.70
Dec28 Warrn 1-11 Kissy (3.80f) PLA 1.60
Dec29 MGam 5-4 Vorodomyr (5.00) PLA 1.30
Dec30 Rock 6-4 Valhulla (7.00) UNP
Dec30 CHbr 4-2 Sensache (6.00) UNP
Dec31 Sydn 6-4 For Valour (5.50) PLA 1.50
Jan1 GCst 6-2 King’s Request (5.00) UNP
Jan3 Bris 5-3 Queen Amidala (3.20f) PLA 1.60
Jan3 Adel 3-1 Pride Of Archway (4.00f) PLA 1.80
Jan7 GCst 6-1 Dellwood Dancer (3.50) UNP
Jan8 Melb 7-1 Halo Amore (3.00f) WON 4.20/1.60
Jan8 Dubb 1-6 Wait For Me (5.00) PLA 1.40
Jan9 Tamw 6-4 Ancient Mariner (3.20) PLA 2.40
Jan9 Town 4-7 Pentecost (6.00) UNP
Jan10 Melb 4-7 Fairweather (5.50) PLA 1.80
Jan10 Melb 8-2 Sand Belt (4.00f) UNP
Jan11 SCst 3-2 Finder Page (4.00f) PLA 1.40
Jan11 SCst 4-4 Aurora Anora (7.00) WON 7.70/2.30
Jan13 Kyne 4-1 Bolters Show (4.00) UNP
Jan14 Melb 4-3 Miabondialee (6.50) PLA 2.40
Jan15 Morn 9-10 Super Boom (6.00) PLA 3.60
Jan16 Melb 6-3 Bunfight (4.00f) PLA 1.60
Jan17 Syd 2-2 Air Of Grace (6.00) UNP
Jan20 Cess 5-3 Sky Channon (4.00) UNP
Jan20 Sale 7-5 Sonic Flight (7.00) PLA 4.60
Jan22 Sydn 2-6 Stay Seated (6.00) UNP
Jan23 Wodo 6-3 Peace And Harmony (3.20f) PLA 1.70
Jn23 MGam 7-7 More Beer (5.50) UNP
Jan24 Melb 7-3 Pretty Pinay (4.60f) UNP
Jan24 Adel 5-4 Missy Vivian (3.20) PLA 1.50
Jan24 Adel 7-5 Dancing Image (7.00) UNP
Jan26 Wagg 2-8 Gangway (5.00) WON 3.70/1.90
Jan27 Town 5-1 Peckjata (3.50) PLA 1.40
Jan29 Geel 5-6 Sweet Spot (6.00) UNP
Jan29 Mack 8-2 Red Bay (4.00) PLA 4.20
Jan30 Tera 6-4 Swift Mookta (5.00) PLA 1.40
Jan31 Adel 4-1 Outback Lad (3.50) PLA 1.10

Horses shorter than $3 didn't do well and when they did win they were too short to make any money from them. Horses longer than $7 didn't seem to do that great, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't produce the odd longshot winner in the future however. I must say though, that based on tests that I have done in the past, if you want to bet on horses longer than $7, you should maybe look for horses which have finished in the first 4 at their last FOUR starts.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-03 08:55 ]

Thanks for that Sportz and I'll leave you alone now.

Sorry if I was asking too many questions but you do seem to be getting lots of forum-ites excited about these system ideas of yours :smile:

That's okay Michael! I'm happy to help.

It's just that I might end up so busy working out systems and things for other people, I don't actually have enough time to have a bet myself!!! :lol:

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-03 11:35 ]

Hi Sportz, I've had a bit of a look at the results you so kindly posted (your keyboard skills are impressive but I admit to not being too shoddy myself) and have noticed an interesting pattern even though its only early days so far.

---------------------------------------------
PrePost Price range: $3.00- $4.00
Total Selections: 34

Total Wins: 9 (26.5% win strike rate)
Win Returns: $39.30
Win Profit: $5.30 (15.62% POT)

Total Placings: 27 (79.4% Place strike rate)
Place Returns: $47.80
Place Profit: $13.80 (40.6% POT) :smile:

---------------------------------------------
PrePost Price range: $4.10- $6.90
Total Selections: 27

Total Wins: 4 (14.8% win strike rate)
Win Returns: $22.60
Win Loss: $4.40 (16.30% LOT) :eek:

Total Placings: 13 (48.1% Place strike rate)
Place Returns: $25.80
Place Loss: $1.20 (4.4% LOT) :eek:

---------------------------------------------
PrePost Price range: $7.00
Total Selections: 11

Total Wins: 4 (36.4% win strike rate)
Win Returns: $32.50
Win Profit: $21.50 (195.45% POT):smile:

Total Placings: 6 (54.5% Place strike rate)
Place Returns: $16.70
Place Profit: $5.70 (51.8% POT) :smile:
---------------------------------------------

So, pretty interesting huh?

$3.00-$4.00 is profitable AND consistent (as a lot of the selections are from the outside barrier system anyway so this should be expected) while the mid range ($4.10-$6.90) made a loss on both win & place even though the loss was only small on the place and probably could have broken even depending on the state you bet in.

The real 'head turner' was the $7.00 price which turned in a big profit for the win (with a 36% win strike rate) and a good profit for the place even though the place strike rate was down (almost 52%).

Crimson Gown at $13.00 contributed most to the profit although it's these type of winners we all look to to indeed make our profits.

Would adding selections at $8.00 have added or detracted from these results do you think?

I, for one, prefer the more stable results coming from the lower price range even though, in this period, the extra selections (ie those NOT Outside Barrier selections) resulted in 5 placings from 12 bets giving a return of $10.60 and a loss of $1.40 mainly thanks to Red Bay on Jan29 which paid $4.20!

It will be interesting to see how these 'extra' selections go over the coming months as I would like to add them to the Outside Barrier selections mainly because you can get a few more bets. However, if they continue to under perform then they will be excluded.

It'll also be interesting to see if the mid range continues it's slump and if the $7.00 range continues on its merry way....guess only time will tell.

Hope all this helps someone out there.

Oops, sorry I took a bit of time to reply to your post Michael.

To answer your question, I would suggest that the lesser results for $4.10-$6.90 is probably just an anomoly and results should even out in time. As an example, today at Tamworth, R6-2 Auri was $6.00 pre-post and won paying 6.70/2.10. You beauty!!! :smile:

As for those extra selections between $3 and $4, I wouldn't actually recommend you add them to the Outside Barrier Specials. I know it's a bit frustrating not having many bets, but adding those runners will almost certainly lower the strike rate and profit.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-06 17:49 ]

Sportz,
I marked the ************ thing this morning, but was that happy with my early results I shut the betting sites down and forgot all about it :sad:

No way I was going to forget about Auri. It was one of my best bets today! :smile:

Michael, I guess you could think about backing those at longer than $7. In the test period, they didn't do well, but that doesn't mean they won't get a winner or two in future. I see there are a couple running today which are longer than $7 and they have some chance.

I had a look at the outside barriers this afternoon BUT using SP's (I don't have PP's in the db). 1991 to 2003 incl.

WIN SR 19.7% AvDiv $3.38 POT -33.4%

PLACE 56.4% AvDiv $1.88 POT +6.4%

cheers

Felicity, are those stats for all outside barrier horses in the $3-$7 SP range???

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-08 21:05 ]

Using the following rules :-

1.Q, NSW, VIC, SA meetings
2.NO 2Y, J, MDNS, <1200 m.
3.>=8 Starters
4.<=4 last 3 starts
5.>2 Runs From Spell
6.SP $3.00 - $7.00
7.Outside Barrier

WIN SR 19.65% AVDIV $3.62 POT -28.93%

PLACE SR 51.96% AVDIV $1.95 POT +1.10%

rgds

[ This Message was edited by: Felicity on 2004-02-09 13:45 ]

Geez, you can get TWELVE years of results??? That's impressive!!!

Slightly disappointing figures, but I think there might possibly be a slightly better result using pre-post prices. After all, some of the winners that are $3-$7 pre-post, actually start a bit longer than that.

Anyway, it is interesting to note that once again the place did better than the win for those selections.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-09 14:48 ]

Here are the figures (same criteria) for Barrier 1

WIN SR 19.52% AVDIV $3.50 POT -31.66%

PLACE SR 51.42% AVDIV $1.92 POT -1.22%

Hmmm, interesting. Very similar figures, but the outside barrier comes out just ahead!

Good old Mac's Tune!!! I hope a few of you backed it today. :smile:

:grin: :grin: :grin:

Sports,

hate to nicpic but if Macs Tune was under your No1 system, wouldn't it have been ineligible under rule 7 ie carrying no more than 58kgs. Well done anyway!

Cheers

No, you're 100% right there. It wasn't a selection for my Number 1 system, but it WAS a selection for this little outside barrier system we've formulated on this thread:
(1) At least 1200m
(2) No 2yos, jumps or races with less than 8 starters
(3) Starting from the outside barrier
(4) At least 3 starts since a spell
(5) Finished in the first 4 at each of it's last 3 starts
(6) Between $3 and $7 pre-post

Sorry you missed it. No, you weren't nitpicking. If you follow a system, it's important that you follow rules to the letter. It's just that sometimes a horse which is deleted in one system is selected in another. Go back and read all of this thread if you want to see how this particular plan has done recently.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-10 08:26 ]

Peakester, Mac's Tune was NOT a System 1 selection as you correctly pointed out (ie carrying 58.5kg) but it WAS a selection for the Outside Barrier System (but not a special) as outlined in another post.

Hope all that wasn't too confusing but it might be worthwhile to go back through the selection rules (for both systems) once more to make sure you don't get them mixed up in the future.

Pity about the 0.5kg though as Mac's Tune would have been a great DOUBLE bet! Oh well...c'est la vie!

You just beat me to the punch Sportz.....must have been that tea I made for myself just before pushing the submiy button! :smile:

Too much caffeine......should have been submit not submiy.

Michael, it doesn't look like there's much in the way of selections today for any of the systems I've posted on here.

No....nothing officially but Magic Holiday (Mackay R5-2) came pretty close to an Outside Barrier Special and may just blow out beyond $3.00 if there's a move for the topweight (Snippety Snip). It's $2.80 in the Herald today (the same as the WATab site) so is NOT an actual bet under the rules but I'll listen to the race with great interest.

Sportz, on another topic.....seeing Felicity has access to 12 years results :eek: do you think it would be interesting to see if she would kindly check out how the $3.00 - $4.00 range performed considering the $3.00 - $7.00 range (for the place) was a bit better than break even?

Felicity, are you with us? And would you mind doing this little task? :smile:

Well, Felicity could look at that, BUT it may not actually be an accurate reflection. As I said in another post, there's often quite a difference between starting prices and pre-post prices.

With reference to that pre-post price of $2.80, I know that it is a bit frustrating sometimes when you have to delete horses all for the sake of say 20 cents. However, I can assure you that in the tests I've done, leaving out those less than $3 is a good idea. Magic Holiday may very well win or place today, but in the long run, I think we'll do well to leave those horses alone.

just looking at the courier mail.
pt.mac, r7 hersey a Top Weight pick?, it does not say handicap,
under 1200m plan,mackay r4 -2 quesadilla.