I know it's 5 weeks away,but I'd like to get some early thoughts if anyone is interested.I realise that Alinghi is something special,but I'm not prepared to award her the race,as most seem to be doing.She is at ridiculous odds,Michael Eskander just offered me 2.70,and if she wins the Riesling Slipper Trial beforehand she will probably start the shortest price Slipper fav. in history!Odds on would not surprise me.What if she can't handle the Sydney way of going?Maybe she won't be the same horse when she has to lead on the other leg?Maybe the track will be heavy and she won't handle it?I just don't think she can come from that far back at Rosehill and win.She was a long way back in the Diamond,but once Ollie got her into the clear she had a hassle free crack at them.I think the traffick in the Slipper will beat her if she is that far off them on the turn.I think it will come down to the barrier draw.If Wager can draw a decent alley(which she didn't in the Diamond)and get a soft lead and run the same sectionals that she did last start she will be very hard to beat.I took 12/1 and backed her eachway in the Diamond & the Slipper.She is now at 8/1.I also backed Dance Hero at 8/1 eachway.If it runs up to it's MM time it's gotta be a chance.
Any thoughts???

I will predict now that she has no hope in the slipper , if you watch the blue diamond over again you will see that there was a bit of interference , she still has a lot to learn, she can't do that in a slipper and win, plus i think that was one of the most ********week diamonds i have ever seen.
[ HOW MANY OF HER OPPOSITION WILL BE THERE?]
Incidently i backed her on saturday, and she is pretty good , she'll be a standout in the spring WATCH OUT.

I will predict now that she has no hope in the slipper , if you watch the blue diamond over again you will see that there was a bit of interference , she still has a lot to learn, she can't do that in a slipper and win, plus i think that was one of the most ********week diamonds i have ever seen.
[ HOW MANY OF HER OPPOSITION WILL BE THERE?]
Incidently i backed her on saturday, and she is pretty good , she'll be a standout in the spring WATCH OUT.

Pretty tough to say. Alingi is dominant in melbourne.

Crimson rain and Charge Forward both have big wraps on them and Not a single doubt and Dance hero are definite chances though MM horses dont have a fantastic record of winning both races. Also Oratario could be a smokey. I'll be looking for something to slot in on the pace perhaps charge forward. As for getting back belle du jour came from last so it's not impossible but it is a slight disadvantage.

If Alingi gets back like he did in the Diamond, he is dead meat in the Slipper.

He is going to have more runners to contend with and a few very quick horses. He would never have got that run in a Slipper.

...And can he race as well in the other direction ?

Oratario for me.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-02-26 19:59 ]

i'm not really a fan of betting on 2 year old races because things can improve and lose form so quickly. i'd like to see horses like charge forward and dance hero, not a single doubt return to racing before i'd make a call on it but going on form at the moment my top four are

Not a Single Doubt
Charge Forward
Dance Hero
Alinghi(depending on "HER" first run in sydney)

Don't you mean she(alingi) crash :wink:

Sorry Umrum, I call every horse a 'he' nowadays.

Wouldn't be politically correct to admit we back women that are whipped !!!

Cheers.

Not sure about Oratorio..was not convinced about last run in MM..Alinghi got a good break to give him that incredible win...Wager for me if given the start is good..they are going to have to run record times...

Being a Slipper, I'm not sure about any of them !!!!

A couple of things i have noticed about the horse that wins a Slipper.These horses are professional,Every time they walk on a track they give 110%,They are born race horses,they want to win ,they dont lay in or hang out,run of the track etc.Most have had 5 to 6 runs going to race ,they may not have won all there races but gees they gave 110% ,just look back the last 4 years ,i say 4 years because most people will remember these horses and there lead up races, they all were natural race horse,theses horses give them self a chance to win.I hope these couple of hints help u pick the winner.
I like wager and Not a single doubt there as honest as the day long,there had the right runs coming into the race and will be spot on come race day . Charge Forward,Dance Hero ,Not A Single Doubt will be trailing today at Randwick good luck .

[ This Message was edited by: insidetube on 2004-02-27 11:15 ]

Insidetube,

Totally agree with you.
You have correctly described [ with passion ] most of the horses in the race !!!

Cheers.

Could you make sure when your bagging my filly that you spell her name ALINGHI correctly & also use the correct sex.

I'll let her do the talking in the Slipper !!

Apologies Sladey...got the gender wrong but the spelling right and good luck to her (Alinghi) and yourself in the Slipper! Go Wager...hehe!

this year the slipper looks a great race,alinghi is a real racehorse, her last win was something very special. THE RUN OF DANCE HERO ON THE GOLD COAST WAS ALSO SUPER AS IF I RECALL THAT DAY THE BACKMARKERS WERE WINNING , SO TO WIN IN RECORD TIME FROM THE FRONT WIN A SWOOPERS BIAS BEATING A GOOD HORSE OR TWO MAKES FOR AN INTERESTING SLIPPER.
BRUCE'S HORSE IS ACCORDING TO THE STABLE A HUMDINGER BUT IT IS ALINGHI AND DANCE FOR ME

good to see you've made it to the dark side sladey :wink:


cheers
umrum

roflmao @ umrum, you call this the dark side.

p.s. Alinghi off to sydney tonight.

exciting times I'm sure. Best of Luck.

cheers
umrum

P.S It gets pretty rough around these parts at times slades.

[ This Message was edited by: umrum on 2004-03-05 16:29 ]

Alinghi is very very good. She will be a bit of a star. I'm just wondering about a horse called Hairpin having first start on March 6. She might be a late entry and repeat that amazing run of her sire Octagonal at his second start. what a huge run that was

So what's the verdict now ?

Bring On The Slipper !!!

NEW QUESTION

CAN ALINGHI BE BEATEN...........


If anything can beat it, it will be ridden by Boss, Beadman, Brown or L. Beasley.

I cant pick 2 y/o winners so i'm just following the jockeys, cos they seem to be able too

At the moment I like 2 horses to have a chance to beat Alinghi the main chance I think is Dance Hero (cannot stand Gai) This horse ran amazing time in the Magic Millions and still kept on giving the other I thought had a bit of a chance at odds is Fastnet Rock I really like the look of this horse just a matter of whether 1200m is long enough for it.

This is a pretty hot topic, MM aside, I think Not A Single Doubt is capable of winning the Slipper.

No doubt Alinghi is pretty special and Wager is very, very good, but l'm gonna stick with Not A Single Doubt on this occasion.

Prices at: 13:35:33, 27 Mar 2004
No. Selection Win Place
103 Alinghi $2.25 $1.30
131 Charge Forward $5.00 $2.00
153 Dance Hero $5.00 $2.00
111 Ballybleue $10.00 $3.25
149 Crimson Reign $10.00 $3.25
156 Dane Shadow $13.00 $4.00
184 Fastnet Rock $15.00 $4.50
333 Wager $15.00 $4.50
315 Tahni Girl $17.00 $5.00
276 Segments $26.00 $7.25
193 Genius and Evil $51.00 $13.50
248 One World $51.00 $13.50
249 Oratorio $51.00 $13.50
336 Wenceslas Square $51.00 $13.50
168 Econsul $67.00 $17.50
328 Uber $67.00 $17.50
120 Burning Sands $101.00 $26.00
186 Find The Cash $101.00 $26.00
188 Flying Firebird $101.00 $26.00
281 She's In Demand $101.00 $26.00
344 Gator N.N $101.00 $26.00
345 World Peace N.N $101.00 $26.00
229 Matador $126.00 $32.25
301 St Pirian $126.00 $32.25
239 Negev $151.00 $38.50
271 Samboy $151.00 $38.50
272 Sanziro $151.00 $38.50
274 Savabeel $151.00 $38.50
330 Valse Des Fleurs $151.00 $38.50
335 Way West $151.00 $38.50
338 Written By Xaar $151.00 $38.50
191 Gaze On $201.00 $51.00
323 Tirade $201.00 $51.00
117 Brannigan $251.00 $63.50
126 Carlton Ace $251.00 $63.50
135 Cincinnati Gal $251.00 $63.50
154 Dancing Bridges $251.00 $63.50
236 More Than Hugs $251.00 $63.50
247 One Small Step $251.00 $63.50
298 Spirit of Tara $251.00 $63.50
316 Tantat Spur $251.00 $63.50
319 Tides of Fun $251.00 $63.50
143 Connecticut $331.00 $83.50
180 Evert $331.00 $83.50
312 Sweet Ransom $331.00 $83.50

Prices at: 15:12:33, 28 Mar 2004
No. Selection Win Place
103 Alinghi $2.10 $1.25
131 Charge Forward $6.00 $2.10
153 Dance Hero $6.00 $2.10
111 Ballybleue $13.00 $3.50
149 Crimson Reign $13.00 $3.50
315 Tahni Girl $15.00 $4.50
156 Dane Shadow $17.00 $5.00
184 Fastnet Rock $17.00 $5.00
333 Wager $17.00 $5.00
276 Segments $34.00 $9.25
281 She's In Demand $41.00 $11.00
193 Genius and Evil $67.00 $17.50
271 Samboy $67.00 $17.50
168 Econsul $101.00 $26.00
328 Uber $101.00 $26.00
117 Brannigan $126.00 $32.25
120 Burning Sands $126.00 $32.25
188 Flying Firebird $126.00 $32.25
191 Gaze On $126.00 $32.25

Blinkers being added to Fastnet Rock for the Slipper, interesting to see outcome.

Reported that Genius And Evil will bypass the Slipper to concentrate on the Sires Produce. Certainly raced like the extra distance will suit.

Im my humble opinion ALINGHI can and will be beaten, Ive been following Tahni Girl, i got on @ $55.00 and now shes @ $15 , shes had a great lead up and she'll be even better come saturday.



[ This Message was edited by: Spirited on 2004-03-29 12:14 ]

I'll just put my 2 cents worth in.

Fillies in this race have a significant advantage over the colts in recent years due to the 3kg allowance. Barring any mishaps, Alinghi is the dominant female around at the moment and should account for these horses.

Alinghi to win in a canter.

[ This Message was edited by: White Turnip on 2004-03-29 12:22 ]

Prices at: 11:02:20, 29 Mar 2004
No. Selection Win Place
103 Alinghi $2.10 $1.25
131 Charge Forward $6.00 $2.10
153 Dance Hero $6.00 $2.10
111 Ballybleue $13.00 $3.50
149 Crimson Reign $13.00 $3.50
315 Tahni Girl $15.00 $4.50
156 Dane Shadow $17.00 $5.00
184 Fastnet Rock $17.00 $5.00
333 Wager $17.00 $5.00
276 Segments $34.00 $9.25
183 Faster Pussycat $41.00 $11.00
281 She's In Demand $41.00 $7.25
271 Samboy $67.00 $17.50
168 Econsul $101.00 $26.00
328 Uber $101.00 $26.00
117 Brannigan $126.00 $32.25
120 Burning Sands $126.00 $32.25
188 Flying Firebird $126.00 $32.25
191 Gaze On $126.00 $32.25
193 Genius and Evil Eliminated Eliminated

Early Picks:
Alinghi
Dance Hero
Fastnet Rock &
Dane Shadow

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barr Wgt Pen
1 DANCE HERO Gai Waterhouse C Munce 2 56.5
2 CHARGE FORWARD John O'Shea D Beadman 5 56.5
3 UBER David Payne S Pollard 7 56.5
4 ECONSUL (NZ) Graeme Rogerson L Cassidy 6 56.5
5 DANE SHADOW John Hawkes C Brown 1 56.5
6 FASTNET ROCK Paul Perry G Boss 9 56.5
7 ALINGHI Lee Freedman D Oliver 11 53.5
8 BALLYBLEUE Anthony Cummings H Bowman 8 53.5
9 BURNING SANDS Graeme Rogerson J Cassidy 10 53.5
10 WAGER Gai Waterhouse D Beasley 4 53.5
11 CRIMSON REIGN Bruce McLachlan S Seamer 13 53.5
12 FLYING FIREBIRD (NZ) Graeme Rogerson L Beasley 15 53.5
13 SHE'S IN DEMAND Mario Caltabiano D Gauci 3 53.5
14 TAHNI GIRL Ross McDonald D Nikolic 14 53.5
15 FASTER PUSSYCAT Stephen Hill R M Quinn 12 53.5

Prices at: 09:36:56, 31 Mar 2004
No. Selection Win Place
007 Alinghi $2.25 $1.25
001 Dance Hero $5.50 $2.00
002 Charge Forward $5.50 $2.00
005 Dane Shadow $13.00 $3.50
008 Ballybleue $13.00 $3.50
010 Wager $13.00 $3.50
011 Crimson Reign $15.00 $4.25
014 Tahni Girl $17.00 $5.00
006 Fastnet Rock $21.00 $5.00
013 She's In Demand $51.00 $11.00
003 Uber $67.00 $13.50
004 Econsul $67.00 $13.50
015 Faster Pussycat $101.00 $21.00
009 Burning Sands $126.00 $21.00
012 Flying Firebird $151.00 $31.00

Can someone clarify this for me? She's In Demand at her last start at Kembla won over 1200m from barrier 11 in a time of 69.8 seconds. This time equals Alinghi's best time over 1200m. She's In Demand is currently $51 odd dollars fixed odds, has drawn barrier 3 and has Gauci on her back. Am I missing something? I know the races she has competed in have significantly lacked the class but her last run was a bottler.

My top pick is Dance Hero, blistering time in his win at the Gold Coast and will sit just off the speed and get a lovely run. Alinghi to just leave it too late and miss out on the money, with She's In Demand and Wager fighting out the minors.

What are everyone's elses thoughts?

Cheers
ShoeIn

Date Days bt races Finish / Field Mgn Track Dist. Class Age Cond. Jockey Barrier Weight Track Cond. Time Last 600m (Race/Horse) Odds Position(800/400)
24/03/2004 16 1/11 .8 KEMBLA GRANGE 1200 LR 2 S D BEASLEY 11 53.0 G 1.09.82 35.09/ 8 1,1
SHE'S IN DEMAND FASTER PUSSYCAT HOLIDAZZLE


Did i mention that Wager will win the Slipper


Sorry about that didn't go like i thought....the time was 1.09.82


[ This Message was edited by: Shaun on 2004-03-31 22:11 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Shaun on 2004-04-01 09:37 ]

After a couple of weeks to see the leadups I think if Alinghi doesnt win, Dane shadow will be running over the top of them

Cheers Megamoos

Shoein. I think what you are missing is you are comparing times on different tracks on different days. I only use times to compare relative strength of races on the same day at the same course.I have read some excellent stuff on here from time handicappers regarding adjustment factors that take in to account most of the variables.It would be very interesting to hear from one of these guys on the relative times you talked about.

Well I am still with Dance Hero and Fastnet Rock I think the blinkers are just what he needs he got lost when he hit the lead last week. But I am adding Charge Forward into the equation aswell it looked very professional winning there a couple of weeks ago and is trained by one of sydneys best in O'shea might also turn into a damn good horse aswell which is hard to say for alot of the Red Ransom breed.

I've rated (7) ALINGHI on top, but not by much, so consider she will start under her true odds.

Next best another filly (10) WAGER, beaten a length in the Blue Diamond by Alinghi, from barrier 4 should get a good run up on the pace.

(1) DANCE HERO best of the boys. He too has drawn well and should up on the pace.

For 4th (8) BALLYBLEUE, winner of the Silver Slipper. Will be suited by the likely fast tempo and should be finishing the race off, better than most of her rivals.

Alinghi zips up at Randwick
Golden Slipper hotpot Alinghi hasd a leisurely gallop at Randwick today to finalise her preparation for Saturday’s $3m dash at Rosehill.
Alinghi strode over 800m in 57.8 but was given rein in the straight to zip up the last 200m in an impressive 11.3.
“She looks a treat and Lee (Freedman) has got her spot on for Saturday,” Randwick clocker Craig Tompson said.
Alinghi has been the stand-out two-year-old throughout the season. Her only danger, according to most experts is bad luck.
Equal second favourite Charge Forward also ventured on the gallop arena this morning but Tompson said he was never off the bit.
"He ran a similar time to Alinghi for 800m in 57.5 but his last furlong was only 14," he said.
Dance Hero, Gai Waterhouse's best hope, was restricted to a trot and canter around the centre of Randwick.

By: Racenet - Thursday, 1 April 2004

You've convinced me ShoeIn. I just had a little EW at 50/1, given SHE'S IN DEMAND's time at Kembla was actually closer to the track record than ALINGHI's last start effort. Also half of SHE'S IN DEMAND's career runs to-date have been in slow going, based on her last start effort, the better going is more to her liking. :wink: