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Just a few thoughts on winning.
If you are the average punter and lose $50 on average per week (approx. $2500/yr) then this is for your benefit. For every 100 punters, 95 will lose. Some faster than others. I work with a complete horse racing database and I can guarantee you that you are at a very distinct disadvantage. My advice to you is to save up (about $2500 or preferably more)and find a good ratings site. Spend the $1000 - $2000 that it costs to subscribe with the remainder going to your betting bank. Don't give up your day job yet. I don't know what the ratings are like on this site as I do my own but a good site is well worth the investment. If you had a $1000 bank and doubled it each year for 5 years, well that's $32,000. If you continue in the present format ($2500/yr loss) that amounts to a $12,500 loss in 5 years. If you could make 20% profit on your bank per month (average) and compound it monthly for a year, your bank would have grown by 9 times. Good Luck My definition of luck is being able to take advantage of the opportunity when it presents itself. That is - good ratings |
Just a few thoughts on not winning: The overall success rate of punters has not improved since the invention of 'databases'. There is nothing new about 'ratings' [they have been around since gambling begun in the murky waters of early history], they are called 'odds'. Ratings are nothing new and the best are available free or for the price of the Sportsman, Wizard, Winning Post or even Best Bets or simply turning on your TV. I'll wager any amount that paid for ratings are no better than what can be obtained free and that none of them can show an overall profit. Not a one [like a good wife or car, they wouldn't be for sale if they did]. Computers are brain dead and apart from a wonderful ability to store, cross reference and even compute the best 'chance' according to input data, all computers are hopeless punters. Why ? Incomplete data that cannot be accurately gathered known as 'variables',which are as murky as mud. When 'reason' goes out the window, so does your money and as yet there hasn't been a computer invented with enough of it to fit on the head of a pin and unique reasoning ability is required to make a profit on the punt. The tote average winning SR is about 30%. Not enough to come out in front, but probably as good as anything available that can be bought. The rating order as defined by the tote prices are the result of combined punter opinion. Better than this is up to each individual punters reasoning prowess through interpretation of any amount of freely available data. No amount of money spent on any service will turn a loosing punter into a consistently winning punter. The best of them can improve your bottom line and all of them sold as 'roads to riches' are after your $2500 [or more] to improve their inventors bottom line !!! Cheers. [ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-03-29 06:08 ] |
I agree with 95% od what you say.
There are 2 things that beat most punters. Rip-off merchants who run sites that sell ratings and themselves. I formally ran a small ratings site and it is my experience that most punters expect too much. When I was running my site, this site was one of my competitors. The handicapper seemed to be very genuine and state the obvious. The punter needs to have a sound financial plan in place. He needs to be disciplined. This beats 95% of punters straight away. Side bets and whispers from the stable, emotional bets all help to send the average punter broke. Most punters approach gambling with no sound financial plan in place. What do they do when they are on a winning streak / losing streak? It was stated that the best ratings are available free, I strongly disagree with this. Try to get your head around this concept. The more people that follow a set of ratings, the less value returned, the more chance of failure. That covers your free ratings. I don't follow the free ratings and I most certainly don't follow the tips from the so-called racing experts on morning radio. How they ever got a job, I'll never know. Do the math and if you can't find a good service, have a sustainable plan (long term) and be disciplined. If you don't the professional punters and bookies and government will take all your money. Cheers |
I think there is only ONE thing that beats most punters and that is not having the unique reasoning ability [found in unique personalities, and usualy not very nice ones either] required to recognize, manage and utilize freely available info. to create a winning edge. The myth that anybody [including this writer who punts for fun ] can become a winning/pro. punter remains just that, a myth. Cheers mate. [ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-03-29 09:11 ] |
The owners of this very forum crash, would have you believe otherwise :???:
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OOOPS !!! an abridged version of my last post should read in the required positions ...'except any offers through the owners of this forum' :-**** |
I have followed all the things that you mentioned Turnip and indeed the methodology inevitably leads an average punter to empty pockets (and beerless weekends)...
Radio and TV pundits are no better or worse than the info I have received here or the many other racing sites and it amazes me when so called experts wax eloquently about a horse on TV...giving out incredible detailed information... total belief in what they are saying...never got an apology from anyone when the donkey runs up last the **************s (Ha Ha)...and there have definitely been days where these overpaid pundits do not come close to the accuracy to a lot of Williams and XPT's ratings... Yes, a financial plan or a betting strategy that fits in comfortably with your personal $$$ situation is impt but my observation has been (and I need to look into this further when I get the time) is that your personal waging/betting system must extract the most out of the information that you attain (from a ratings system, mates' tips or whatever)...discipline and sticking to your strategy is the key (unfortunately, I am your average punter that can't resist the pub gossip LOLOLOL! lots of beerless weekends in the past but there have been some recent windfalls..tahnks to William, XPT et al on this site)...Good luck and Good punting! |
cant help but put something in here.
i learned that there are a million selection methods all of which seem to produce some winners. compiling certain sets of variables seems to provide a certain number of winners but i havent found a combination of variables that provide a lot of winners. times used to but seems too much work and is inconsistent these days. but to get to the point. i use my listed horse methods and try many variables to follow each week to have some fun and on saturday i came up with a doosy and am almost too embarrassed to tell you. i backed raven protector based on the relationship to its prizemoney won and price available and looked way over the odds. as was yesterday with sportsbrat. just a crazy thought. probably have a different one next week but still got some cash. |
The secret to good punting is knowing the value of selection. I probably have a worse strike rate than most people who write on this site but I am able to get fantastic value.
It is not about how many winners you get but how much money you walk away with at the end of the day / week / year. A lot of favourites are undervalued. If you continually accept odds below there face value then it is mathematically certain you will lose. My value bet on Sunday was GREIGACIOUS who saluted at 25-1. Everyone seemed to jump off it after a bad race. It beat KABLAMMO in the start prior to that in Canberra. I rated it at 13-2. I had 2 other losses for the day but that more than made up for it. |
See what you mean by 'Monday Posters' partypooper :lol:
_________________ May the luck of the Irish be with you! [ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2004-03-29 22:48 ] |
Here you go Paddy, but I have to warn you I haven't had the greatest success in Stoney Creek
3:10PM STONEY CREEK Race 5 TAB Horse ODR D.O. 3 SIONNACH 11-4 $ 3.75 8 GRANDTASTIC 3-1 $ 4.00 7 ENCOSTA ROCKET 13-2 $ 7.50 9 JEWEL OF ALGARVE 15-2 $ 8.50 Just re-entered selections after important scratchings. Cheers [ This Message was edited by: White Turnip on 2004-03-30 12:18 ] |
Quote-'The secret to good punting is knowing the value of selection...'
Initially, I thought that this is what I had stated in my previous posting but after some consideration understand that there is a difference...a successful betting strategy relies on (not solely, but it is definitely an important point) understanding the above point. XTP always provides with his ratings, what a reasonable return should be on each selection... I am guessing that seasoned punters not only look for value for money in a bet but have developed a betting strategy that provides an enhanced return on some bets that are paying less than they should... Wouldn't mind hearing other views... |
Any punter who can consistently recognize 'value' [before a race] would be a very rich punter indeed. Most of us recognize it often enough to stay out of the poor house and even spot the odd doozy way over the odds, but not often enough to turn a consistent profit. Cheers. |
From my time on this forum i have learned a lot and have met some smart people.....but for all the knowledge that you have you fail to really understand people......do you think the average punter is trying to become a professional....do you think they have what it takes even if they did want to be a pro.....i agree if they punted like a pro they would do much better but most punters are there to have fum relax and maybe win a few dollars along the way....now you can say that is a stupid way to bet but tell me this.
on avereage a punter losses $50 a week there are plenty of other things people do that cost them $50 a week for fun maybe going to the footy haveing a few beers going to the movies renting some videos playing golf....they do these things to have fun.....you know what the biggest thing for the average punter is....to brag to his mates about backing a 20/1 winner on the weekend or picking the winner of a big race.....he doesn't tell them he backed 5 losses that were under value....when melbourne cup comes around you check out the people bragging about them backing the winner or winning the sweap.....i just look at it as another race great if i get the winner but doesn't really matter if i don't....i reckon that the average punter gets more enjoyment out of punting than we do....and thats the truth. |
Gday All,
First up thank you to the people who have made favorable mention of my ratings. I know from my point of view I really appreciate the thoughts.... Ok .. now to the meat of the issue.. White Turnip wrote: My value bet on Sunday was GREIGACIOUS who saluted at 25-1. Everyone seemed to jump off it after a bad race. It beat KABLAMMO in the start prior to that in Canberra. I rated it at 13-2. I had 2 other losses for the day but that more than made up for it. I write: I wonder whether you thought Kablammo was a hot horse on the first Tuesday in Nov of last year when it won at Flemington at about 15 bucks... I did I rated it on top, (posted here as well) and I still think he is a class runner and no doubt he will get my cash when he is at a value price. Now that is all and good, but I didn't see Gregacious as your Value Bet prior to the race, it may have been posted but I haven't seen it.. Here was my top 6 rated horses for the race: they were posted well in advance: 4 $3.7 Indeed I Do 1 $6.5 Spectrum's Image 10 $6.5 Greigacious FIRST - $25.50 7 $11.4 Galactic Queen 2 $11.4 Magic Duck SECOND - 3 $11.4 Not Fussy I can go on .... Race 8 04:39 PM Life & Veteran Members Hcp. Handicap 3yo+ S/C 1 win-ly 11 $4.0 Sam Sung A Song 2 $5.3 Sportsbrat FIRST - $24.40 6 $7.1 Patpong 1 $9.5 Murphy's Blu Boy SECOND - 5 $9.5 Desert Ransom 14 $9.5 Our Jin Mah To me they are fair value and probably worth skiting about, but you can't keep getting reults like that, eventually you will go broke chasing those 20/1 winners. You need to look for nice overlays. And that is where I think the true value in racing lies, and probably the best formula for making a quid in this game.. A typical example of a great overlay was yesterday at Coffs R1 With Fire Bright winning. A truly great overlay. Way better than Gregacious, Sportsbrat or even Raven Protector. That horse winning makes the day a huge profit day.. That is if you bet to the odds.. Gregacious was about a 4 or 5 X overlay, Raven Protector a 3 X overlay and Sportsbrat a 5X overlay. but this horse at coffs was a 7 x overlay, but we aren't hearing about it because it paid 5 bucks, but I made a great profit from that race, more than from the others mentioned.. AND there were only 4 runners in the race. Ofcourse it isnt always that good, but hell that's the nature of the beast.. :smile: Coffs Harbour 29 March Race 1 01:42 PM Comfort Inn City Centre Hcp. Handicap Open 3 $1.5 Fire Bright FIRST - $5.00 4 $4.7 Planet Lover SECOND - 1 $6.2 Darcy D'Or FOURTH - 5 $8.3 Laminated THIRD _________________ Good luck and good punting xptdriver@hotmail.com [ This Message was edited by: xptdriver on 2004-03-30 10:36 ] |
xptdriver,
Firstly thanks for supplying your assessed market prices. It is very generous offer you provide. I would like to ask you a question as to what your selection would be based on value if (using your example) the assessed prices versus the actual price (AP) were: Coffs Harbour 29 March Race 1 01:42 PM Comfort Inn City Centre Hcp. Handicap Open 3 $1.5 Fire Bright AP $4.50 4 $4.7 Planet Lover AP $4.50 1 $6.2 Darcy D'Or AP $8.00 5 $8.3 Laminated AP$15.50 This is a typical problem that faces the 'value' punter assessing chance to price. I hope you can shed some of your experienced light here… Thanks in advance. Luckyboy |
Computers can do anything you design them to do - if you don't tell them what to do - they wont do it, simple.
What about value judgements etc. This can all be input if you're prepared to put the time in, which in the longrun saves time. Why can't you put fields in your database for confidence rating out of 10 or how much you liked the run out of 10 or how lucky or unlucky the runner was etc. Whatever you can think of can be input and assessed including variables. You get out of a database exactly what you put in. [ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-03-30 11:51 ] |
Yes xptdriver, I do think KABLAMMO is a very good horse and I also will be looking out for him when he shows good value. I had him rated at 11-2 in the first week of November, therefore qualified and a nice return. This race was put up as an example of value in overlays.
Many of my bets are also on favourites at short prices which I also consider as good overlays. NIELLO, which I rated at 10-9 qualified as another example. Unfortunately, I do not and will not post free ratings on races I will be punting in. Below is my ratings for the race you mentioned albeit after the event. 2:51PM WARWICK FARM Race 5 4 INDEED I DO 3-1 $ 4.00 1 SPECTRUM'S IMAGE 5-1 $ 6.00 10 GREIGACIOUS 13-2 $ 7.50 RATINGS WORK [ This Message was edited by: White Turnip on 2004-03-30 12:11 ] [ This Message was edited by: White Turnip on 2004-03-30 12:31 ] |
I would like to also thank xpt driver & william for their free ratings,and also the forgotten free ratings provided by the owners of this site.All 3 have been invaluable to me,especially in the area of quinellas,trifectas,& doubles!I thank you all!As for White Turnip and his/her ratings,if you do not wish to post pre-race,which is fair enough and your perogative,please spare us the crowing and bragging post-race.As that immortal Irishman on this forum put it so succintly,there is no shortage of Monday posters!!When the ball is over,take off your frock and go home!
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purpleheart68, I apoligise to you if you misunderstood what I was trying to say and considered it as bragging. That was never my intention. I was trying to give a valid and recent example of how ratings work. purpleheart68, when you punt, you are not trying to take the TAB's money or the bookies money. You are taking the money of all the other losing punters. The TAB and bookies are mearly taking a cut before they divi up the money. Therefore, you are my competitor. Everybody can't win, there is no value in that. |
Whitey,was not meaning to have a go at you,so please do not misunderstand me either.If you are making a go of it with your ratings,goodonya!My point was that your point cannot be classified as valid if you post after the event.I too can post all sorts of facts and figures,ratings etc. AFTER the event.What does that prove?Also betting on the TAB is betting against other punters,agreed,you are my competitor,but betting with a bookie is a totally different ball game.....HE is my competitor,NOT YOU!I am trying to take his money,not yours.
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dont worry too much about it.
i have the same problem. i cant post because i work off prices and other factors and dont consider my tips good enough to encourage other people to spend money on them. but i do get excited if i am right occasionally and get on a bolter. i was talking recently about horses coming back in distance and winning (anyone have a go at genesis on saturday) |
Shaun, Glad to hear you bet for fun too, but on that topic and without taking the liberty of speaking for other forum members, even a casual perusal of past posts on record here, will clearly reveal that most punters here do indeed punt to try and make a profit. The subject of betting for fun or profit has come up in this forum several times and you are one of the very few and the only one I can think of apart from myself, who has claimed in a post that profit is not their number 1 reason for punting. I am sure there are others, but we would be a definite minority. Even the title of this thread is called 'Winning'. Cheers. [ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-03-31 03:14 ] |
Howdy Chrome, Regarding computers you wrote: Quote: 'Whatever you can think of can be input and assessed including variables'. You get out of a database exactly what you put in'. End quote. I couldn't agree more. What you get out though is only as accurate as the values you input. Input subjective values [nothing else is possible] for the multitude of variables and that is exactly what you will get out ...a very variable value !!! LOLOL Cheers. [ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-03-31 03:36 ] |
re having fun and winning.
i have been playing around with horses for a long time and frankly find most racing boring. so i try to make my methods fun and challenging not so much as to make money but to entertain and sometimes think i'm clever. the persuit itself lends itself to disaster and i try not to go there. i have often been able to bet for 6 months on a solitary $50 investment and one year made over a $1000 withdrawn from my tab account and put towards a new computer. i know the big timers will laugh at this but i am able to put my business income and wages in the bank and buy land and stuff without wasting it on hobbies. and still enjoy the sport of kings. over the years i have not seen the consistency in horses to get particularly confident about it. as one great punter once said every race is an event and you shouldnt treat one event the same as the next else you will lose your money. it takes too much time to make each race an event so i dont go there. so it statistical betting for me and hope the winners fall where i think they will fall. good luck |
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On 2004-03-30 11:44, Luckyboy wrote: xptdriver, Firstly thanks for supplying your assessed market prices. It is very generous offer you provide. I write: No worries I enjoy doing it.. Luckyboy then wrote: I would like to ask you a question as to what your selection would be based on value if (using your example) the assessed prices versus the actual price (AP) were: Coffs Harbour 29 March Race 1 01:42 PM Comfort Inn City Centre Hcp. Handicap Open 3 $1.5 Fire Bright AP $4.50 4 $4.7 Planet Lover AP $4.50 1 $6.2 Darcy D'Or AP $8.00 5 $8.3 Laminated AP$15.50 This is a typical problem that faces the 'value' punter assessing chance to price. I hope you can shed some of your experienced light here… Thanks in advance. Luckyboy I write: I appreciate the problem. I have said for a long time that I wont tell people how to bet, that is up to the individual. Your idea of value may be different to mine. You may only take 2 x overs or 3x, where I may bet them all that are over what I reckon they should be.. it's up to the individual.. I supply the prices I reckon they should be,(including the TAB take out) to help the person who has made a selection to work out if they are getting a good price. Whether the person takes the advice is entriely up to them.. In the race above I only backed Fire Bright. Say Planet lover was going off at say 20/1 I woulda had a bit on it as well.. The one thing i will say is that i set the amount of my bet based on my price not the TAB or bookie price.. thats why a horse that i reckon should be 2's on wins at 4's it becomes a magnificent overlay because i have bet it as if it was only $1.50, alternatively had it started at 1.50 it would be going around without my cash and I would likely leave the race alone or scale back my bet on something else.. .. It was one of the rare times where I got it right :smile: I hope that explains things a bit.. |
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