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-   -   Adelaide Cup - 3200M (17 May) (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=4759)

Paddy 29th April 2004 07:09 AM

Adelaide Cup - 3200M (17 May)
 
1 ACTION SHOT (NZ) Tony Noonan
2 ANYONE WE KNOW (NZ) Tony McEvoy
3 BABE ZAHARIAS Max Hinton
4 BAD BOY BUBBY (NZ) Tony Noonan
5 BADGER'S WOOD Bill Wilde
6 BALASCAL (NZ) Simon Morrish
7 BEL AIR (NZ) Peter J Walker
8 BELLO SIGNOR Eric Musgrove
9 BLUE MURDER Cliff Brown
10 BRIGALOW W J Miller
11 BULKHEAD David Noonan
12 C'MON MATE (NZ) Bevan Laming
13 DANASRI (NZ) Bart Cummings
14 DANESTORM Jim Conlan
15 DELIVER US (NZ) Michael Moroney
16 DELVECCHIO (NZ) Mick Price
17 DESERT CLEARANCE (NZ) Peter G Moody
18 DOMAIN CHANDON Bobby Scarlett
19 ENZED Allison Bennett
20 EXALTED TIME Jim Smith
21 FOX HELIOS Daniel Clarken
22 FOXBOROUGH Nigel Blackiston
23 FULL SPEC Greg Lesnikowski
24 FUTURE ANALYSIS Majella Ballantine
25 GARIDAR Tony Dynon
26 GOLDEN SHOE (NZ) Cliff Brown
27 GRACE AND FAVOUR (NZ) Murray Baker
28 GREY SONG Tom Hughes (Jnr)
29 HAIL TO THE CHIEF (NZ) Jim Conlan
30 IRISH CRUSADER (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith
31 JUST THE PART Darren Weir
32 KARASI (IRE) Eric Musgrove
33 LARROCHA Tony McEvoy
34 LESTER THUNDERWING Ken Keys
35 LIQUID LUNCH Chris Hyland
36 LITTLE MISS QUICK (NZ) Leon Macdonald
37 LODGER (NZ) Max Hinton
38 LORD ERIN (NZ) Grant Dalziel
39 MAJESTIC AVENUE Tony Noonan
40 MANAWA KING (NZ) Jim Conlan
41 MASAI (NZ) Graham Richardson
42 MILZEEL (NZ) Michael Moroney
43 MISS STRESS Alicia Di Blasio
44 MISTER EXPERT Clarry Conners
45 MR. SELBY Dan O'Sullivan
46 MY SOUTHERN BELL (NZ) John Hawkes
47 ON TIME Karen Fox
48 PANTANI (NZ) Robbie Laing
49 PENTAMEROUS (NZ) Shane A Edwards
50 PENTASTIC David Hall
51 PHAYES TIP Ray Cleaver
52 PHONE A FRIEND (NZ) Michael Moroney
53 PIPKIN Barry Brook
54 POINT OF HONOUR Gai Waterhouse
55 RAIN GAUGE Tom Hughes (Jnr)
56 REQUISITE (NZ) Michael Moroney
57 RILEY REDWING Royston Carr
58 ROMAN ARCH Mick Whittle
59 SATURDAY FEVER Tony McEvoy
60 SOLDADO Chris Hyland
61 SPADANZA Paul Richards
62 SPECIAL SCENE John Blakey
63 STEALTH KNIGHT Jarrod McLean
64 STOWAY Gai Waterhouse
65 SUPER BOOM Peter Healey
66 TEROUGE Rhonda Mangan
67 TERRAIN (NZ) Graeme Rogerson
68 THE BIGHEARTED (NZ) Michael Moroney
69 THE SNAKE (NZ) Grant Dalziel
70 THUNDAHAR Matthew Williams
71 TINTAGEL (NZ) Lee Freedman
72 TORNADO KID Brian Mayfield-Smith
73 TRANSFERRAL Andrew Noblet
74 TUMERIC Cliff Brown
75 WILLIAM OF OZ Jack Smith
76 WOODCUT Mick Whittle
77 YOU LITTLE BEAUT Tony McEvoy


_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!


[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2004-04-30 15:39 ]

darkydog2002 29th April 2004 10:35 AM

Why would anyone even contemplate betting in a race of that distance except a fun bet on the Melbourne Cup?

Shaun 30th April 2004 08:08 AM

Hey Paddy it is great what you do with these major races but would you consider putting the race date on the list so we know when they are run

Paddy 1st May 2004 07:58 AM

Prices at: 08:32:17, 1 May 2004
No. Selection Win Place
139 Manawa King $4.75 $1.90
127 Grey Song $6.50 $2.35
154 Rain Gauge $7.50 $2.60
116 Desert Clearance $9.00 $3.00
149 Pentastic $9.00 $3.00
158 Saturday Fever $9.00 $3.00
106 Bel Air $11.00 $3.50
115 Delvecchio $11.00 $3.50
129 Irish Crusader $13.00 $4.00
132 Larrocha $13.00 $4.00
152 Pipkin $15.00 $4.50
170 Tintagel $15.00 $4.50
176 You Little Beaut $15.00 $4.50
104 Badger's Wood $21.00 $6.00
113 Danestorm $21.00 $6.00
140 Masai $21.00 $6.00
156 Riley Redwing $21.00 $6.00
135 Little Miss Quick $26.00 $7.25
138 Majestic Avenue $26.00 $7.25
157 Roman Arch $26.00 $7.25
166 Terrain $26.00 $7.25
124 Garidar $34.00 $9.25
137 Lord Erin $34.00 $9.25
163 Stoway $34.00 $9.25
173 Tumeric $34.00 $9.25
130 Just The Part $41.00 $11.00
102 Babe Zaharias $51.00 $13.50
103 Bad Boy Bubby $51.00 $13.50
105 Balascal $51.00 $13.50
107 Bello Signor $51.00 $13.50
112 Danasri $51.00 $13.50
114 Deliver Us $51.00 $13.50
119 Exalted Time $51.00 $13.50
126 Grace and Favour $51.00 $13.50
131 Karasi $51.00 $13.50
133 Lester Thunderwing $51.00 $13.50
143 Mister Expert $51.00 $13.50
147 Pantani $51.00 $13.50
153 Point of Honour $51.00 $13.50
165 Terouge $51.00 $13.50
167 The Bighearted $51.00 $13.50
171 Tornado Kid $51.00 $13.50
172 Transferral $51.00 $13.50
100 Action Shot $67.00 $17.50
108 Blue Murder $67.00 $17.50
110 Bulkhead $67.00 $17.50
121 Foxborough $67.00 $17.50
122 Full Spec $67.00 $17.50
125 Golden Shoe $67.00 $17.50
134 Liquid Lunch $67.00 $17.50
150 Phayes Tip $67.00 $17.50
151 Phone a Friend $67.00 $17.50
101 Anyone We Know $101.00 $26.00
123 Future Analysis $101.00 $26.00
136 Lodger $101.00 $26.00
141 Milzeel $101.00 $26.00
144 Mr. Selby $101.00 $26.00
145 My Southern Bell $101.00 $26.00
155 Requisite $101.00 $26.00
160 Spadanza $101.00 $26.00
169 Thundahar $101.00 $26.00
109 Brigalow $126.00 $32.25
111 C'mon Mate $126.00 $32.25
117 Domain Chandon $126.00 $32.25
118 Enzed $126.00 $32.25
128 Hail To The Chief $126.00 $32.25
146 On Time $126.00 $32.25
148 Pentamerous $126.00 $32.25
159 Soldado $126.00 $32.25
161 Special Scene $126.00 $32.25
162 Stealth Knight $126.00 $32.25
164 Super Boom $126.00 $32.25
175 Woodcut $126.00 $32.25
120 Fox Helios $251.00 $63.50
142 Miss Stress $251.00 $63.50
168 The Snake $251.00 $63.50
174 William of Oz $251.00 $63.50


Paddy 4th May 2004 08:44 AM

Prices at: 09:31:17, 4 May 2004
No. Selection Win Place
127 Grey Song $6.00 $2.25
149 Pentastic $7.00 $2.50
154 Rain Gauge $7.00 $2.50
132 Larrocha $9.00 $3.00
158 Saturday Fever $9.00 $3.00
106 Bel Air $11.00 $3.50
115 Delvecchio $11.00 $3.50
116 Desert Clearance $11.00 $3.50
170 Tintagel $11.00 $3.50
129 Irish Crusader $13.00 $4.00
152 Pipkin $15.00 $4.50
176 You Little Beaut $15.00 $4.50
104 Badger's Wood $21.00 $6.00
113 Danestorm $21.00 $6.00
140 Masai $21.00 $6.00
156 Riley Redwing $21.00 $6.00
135 Little Miss Quick $26.00 $7.25
138 Majestic Avenue $26.00 $7.25
157 Roman Arch $26.00 $7.25
166 Terrain $26.00 $7.25
124 Garidar $34.00 $9.25
137 Lord Erin $34.00 $9.25
163 Stoway $34.00 $9.25
173 Tumeric $34.00 $9.25
130 Just The Part $41.00 $11.00
102 Babe Zaharias $51.00 $13.50
103 Bad Boy Bubby $51.00 $13.50
105 Balascal $51.00 $13.50
107 Bello Signor $51.00 $13.50
112 Danasri $51.00 $13.50
114 Deliver Us $51.00 $13.50
119 Exalted Time $51.00 $13.50
123 Future Analysis $51.00 $13.50
126 Grace and Favour $51.00 $13.50
131 Karasi $51.00 $13.50
133 Lester Thunderwing $51.00 $13.50
143 Mister Expert $51.00 $13.50
147 Pantani $51.00 $13.50
153 Point of Honour $51.00 $13.50
165 Terouge $51.00 $13.50
167 The Bighearted $51.00 $13.50
171 Tornado Kid $51.00 $13.50
172 Transferral $51.00 $13.50
100 Action Shot $67.00 $17.50
108 Blue Murder $67.00 $17.50
110 Bulkhead $67.00 $17.50
121 Foxborough $67.00 $17.50
122 Full Spec $67.00 $17.50
125 Golden Shoe $67.00 $17.50
134 Liquid Lunch $67.00 $17.50
150 Phayes Tip $67.00 $17.50
151 Phone a Friend $67.00 $17.50
101 Anyone We Know $101.00 $26.00
136 Lodger $101.00 $26.00
141 Milzeel $101.00 $26.00
144 Mr. Selby $101.00 $26.00
145 My Southern Bell $101.00 $26.00
155 Requisite $101.00 $26.00
160 Spadanza $101.00 $26.00
169 Thundahar $101.00 $26.00
109 Brigalow $126.00 $32.25
111 C'mon Mate $126.00 $32.25
117 Domain Chandon $126.00 $32.25
118 Enzed $126.00 $32.25
128 Hail To The Chief $126.00 $32.25
146 On Time $126.00 $32.25
148 Pentamerous $126.00 $32.25
159 Soldado $126.00 $32.25
161 Special Scene $126.00 $32.25
162 Stealth Knight $126.00 $32.25
164 Super Boom $126.00 $32.25
175 Woodcut $126.00 $32.25
120 Fox Helios $251.00 $63.50
142 Miss Stress $251.00 $63.50
168 The Snake $251.00 $63.50
174 William of Oz $251.00 $63.50



Looks like we have lost the early fav Manawa King.

Paddy 9th May 2004 04:55 AM

1 ROMAN ARCH Mick Whittle 1 56
2 RAIN GAUGE Tom Hughes (Jnr) 2 55
3 BEL AIR (NZ) Peter J Walker 4 53.5
4 SATURDAY FEVER Tony McEvoy 6 53
5 IRISH CRUSADER (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith 7 53
6 RILEY REDWING Royston Carr 5 52.5
7 DELVECCHIO (NZ) Mick Price 9 52.5
8 TUMERIC Cliff Brown 10 52
9 PIPKIN Barry Brook 3 51.5
10 PANTANI (NZ) Robbie Laing 11 51.5
11 YOU LITTLE BEAUT Tony McEvoy 12 51.5
12 LORD ERIN (NZ) Grant Dalziel 13 51.5
13 BADGER'S WOOD Bill Wilde 14 51.5
14 BELLO SIGNOR Eric Musgrove 15 51.5
15 MAJESTIC AVENUE Tony Noonan 16 51.5
16 LARROCHA Tony McEvoy 8 51
17 GARIDAR Tony Dynon 17 51
18 JUST THE PART Darren Weir 18 51
19 TRANSFERRAL Andrew Noblet 19 51
20 THUNDAHAR Matthew Williams 20 51
21 BLUE MURDER Cliff Brown 21 51
22 STEALTH KNIGHT Jarrod McLean 22 51
23 GRACE AND FAVOUR (NZ) Murray Baker 23 51
24 TINTAGEL (NZ) Lee Freedman 24 51
25 FULL SPEC Greg Lesnikowski 25 51
26 FOX HELIOS Daniel Clarken 26 51
27 KARASI (IRE) Eric Musgrove 27 51
28 EXALTED TIME Jim Smith 28 51
29 LITTLE MISS QUICK (NZ) Leon Macdonald 29 51
30 DANESTORM Jim Conlan 30 51
31 ANYONE WE KNOW (NZ) Tony McEvoy 31 51
32 REQUISITE (NZ) Michael Moroney 32 51
33 SPADANZA Paul Richards 33 51
34 BAD BOY BUBBY (NZ) Tony Noonan 34 51
35 WOODCUT Mick Whittle 35 51
36 PHONE A FRIEND (NZ) Michael Moroney 36 51
37 THE BIGHEARTED (NZ) Michael Moroney 37 51
38 MILZEEL (NZ) Michael Moroney 38 51
39 FOXBOROUGH Nigel Blackiston 39 51
40 SPECIAL SCENE John Blakey 40 51
41 C'MON MATE (NZ) Bevan Laming 41 51


Paddy 9th May 2004 04:56 AM

Prices at: 22:15:00, 8 May 2004
No. Selection Win Place
154 Rain Gauge $5.50 $2.10
157 Roman Arch $6.00 $2.25
106 Bel Air $7.00 $2.50
132 Larrocha $7.00 $2.50
158 Saturday Fever $10.00 $3.25
115 Delvecchio $11.00 $3.50
129 Irish Crusader $12.00 $3.75
170 Tintagel $12.00 $3.75
156 Riley Redwing $15.00 $4.50
137 Lord Erin $17.00 $5.00
113 Danestorm $21.00 $6.00
130 Just The Part $21.00 $6.00
152 Pipkin $21.00 $6.00
172 Transferral $21.00 $6.00
173 Tumeric $21.00 $6.00
135 Little Miss Quick $26.00 $7.25
138 Majestic Avenue $26.00 $7.25
176 You Little Beaut $26.00 $7.25
104 Badger's Wood $34.00 $9.25
124 Garidar $34.00 $9.25
147 Pantani $41.00 $11.00
107 Bello Signor $51.00 $13.50
126 Grace and Favour $51.00 $13.50
108 Blue Murder $67.00 $17.50
119 Exalted Time $67.00 $17.50
122 Full Spec $67.00 $17.50
131 Karasi $67.00 $17.50
151 Phone a Friend $67.00 $17.50
167 The Bighearted $67.00 $17.50
103 Bad Boy Bubby $81.00 $21.00
121 Foxborough $81.00 $21.00
101 Anyone We Know $101.00 $26.00
141 Milzeel $101.00 $26.00
155 Requisite $101.00 $26.00
169 Thundahar $101.00 $26.00
111 C'mon Mate $126.00 $32.25
160 Spadanza $126.00 $32.25
161 Special Scene $126.00 $32.25
162 Stealth Knight $126.00 $32.25
175 Woodcut $126.00 $32.25
120 Fox Helios $251.00 $63.50


Paddy 13th May 2004 08:46 PM

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barr Wgt
1 ROMAN ARCH Mick Whittle L Currie 14 56
2 BEL AIR (NZ) Peter J Walker G Childs 19 53.5
3 RILEY REDWING Royston Carr P Mertens 20 52.5
4 TUMERIC Cliff Brown Simon Price 11 52
5 PANTANI (NZ) Robbie Laing K Forrester 16 51.5
6 LORD ERIN (NZ) Grant Dalziel B Prebble 1 51.5
7 BADGER'S WOOD Bill Wilde N Ryan (a) 2 51.5
8 BELLO SIGNOR Eric Musgrove Ms C Lindop 6 51.5
9 MAJESTIC AVENUE Tony Noonan S Baster 9 51.5
10 LARROCHA Tony McEvoy D Dunn 15 51
11 STEALTH KNIGHT Jarrod McLean M Pumpa 8 51
12 TRANSFERRAL Andrew Noblet R McLeod 3 51
13 THUNDAHAR Matthew Williams R Wheeler 4 51
14 FULL SPEC Greg Lesnikowski P Gatt 5 51
15 KARASI (IRE) Eric Musgrove A J Calder 17 51
16 DANESTORM Jim Conlan M J Walker 13 51
17 C'MON MATE (NZ) Bevan Laming M Rodd 18 51
18 MILZEEL (NZ) Michael Moroney Dale Smith 10 51
19 SPECIAL SCENE John Blakey A Spiteri 7 51
20 WOODCUT Mick Whittle D Tootell 12 51


Paddy 13th May 2004 08:47 PM

Prices at: 18:53:15, 13 May 2004
No. Selection Win Place
001 Roman Arch $4.25 $1.80
010 Larrocha $5.50 $2.10
002 Bel Air $6.00 $2.25
006 Lord Erin $8.00 $2.75
016 Danestorm $12.00 $3.75
003 Riley Redwing $15.00 $4.50
004 Tumeric $17.00 $5.00
012 Transferral $21.00 $6.00
007 Badger's Wood $26.00 $7.25
009 Majestic Avenue $26.00 $7.25
017 C'mon Mate $26.00 $7.25
005 Pantani $34.00 $9.25
008 Bello Signor $34.00 $9.25
014 Full Spec $34.00 $9.25
015 Karasi $51.00 $13.50
018 Milzeel $67.00 $17.50
011 Stealth Knight $101.00 $26.00
013 Thundahar $101.00 $26.00
019 Special Scene $101.00 $26.00
020 Woodcut $101.00 $26.00


Chenille Prince 14th May 2004 08:10 AM

Roman Arch
Tumeric
Majestic Avenue
Bello Signor


Mr ed 14th May 2004 10:53 AM

Roman Arch, huge run last start against similar field drops a kilo and looks like he will relish extra distance by the way he hit the line over 2600. Good E/W at around the 5/1 mark

Paddy 14th May 2004 08:29 PM

Prices at: 20:53:22, 14 May 2004
No. Selection Win Place
001 Roman Arch $4.25 $1.80
010 Larrocha $5.50 $2.10
002 Bel Air $6.00 $2.25
006 Lord Erin $8.00 $2.75
016 Danestorm $12.00 $3.75
003 Riley Redwing $15.00 $4.50
004 Tumeric $17.00 $5.00
012 Transferral $21.00 $6.00
007 Badger's Wood $26.00 $7.25
009 Majestic Avenue $26.00 $7.25
017 C'mon Mate $26.00 $7.25
005 Pantani $34.00 $9.25
008 Bello Signor $34.00 $9.25
014 Full Spec $34.00 $9.25
015 Karasi $51.00 $13.50
018 Milzeel $67.00 $17.50
011 Stealth Knight $101.00 $26.00
013 Thundahar $101.00 $26.00
019 Special Scene $101.00 $26.00
020 Woodcut $101.00 $26.00


who-am-I 14th May 2004 08:51 PM

go the 2nd and 3rd in the market for a fun bet

darkydog2002 14th May 2004 09:55 PM

Take an extra pie and dont forget the bus fare home.
Cheers.
darky.

14th May 2004 10:15 PM

Thanks for the advice darkydog2002 - will do :smile:


darkydog2002 15th May 2004 06:35 AM

UNLUCKY PHIL.Yeah these type of races are designed to line the bookies bags with mug money and by gee aren,t they good at it.?
Cheers.darky.

Mr ed 16th May 2004 02:59 AM

Come on fellas form is exposed, its no different to the form and uncertainty of a sprinter who might get shunted back at the start and have no chance.

Paddy 16th May 2004 06:22 AM

Prices at: 22:15:00, 15 May 2004
No. Selection Win Place
001 Roman Arch $4.25 $1.80
010 Larrocha $5.50 $2.10
002 Bel Air $6.00 $2.25
006 Lord Erin $7.50 $2.60
016 Danestorm $12.00 $3.75
003 Riley Redwing $15.00 $4.50
004 Tumeric $17.00 $5.00
012 Transferral $21.00 $6.00
007 Badger's Wood $26.00 $7.25
009 Majestic Avenue $26.00 $7.25
017 C'mon Mate $26.00 $7.25
005 Pantani $34.00 $9.25
008 Bello Signor $34.00 $9.25
014 Full Spec $34.00 $9.25
015 Karasi $51.00 $13.50
018 Milzeel $67.00 $17.50
011 Stealth Knight $101.00 $26.00
013 Thundahar $101.00 $26.00
019 Special Scene $101.00 $26.00
020 Woodcut $101.00 $26.00



Close of betting last night Lord Erin in half a point.

_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!

[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2004-05-16 07:23 ]

Raw Instinct 17th May 2004 06:11 AM

I would have to go with Larrocha on top is in the race very well and I would take Transferral as my main roughie.

Paddy 17th May 2004 08:17 AM

Prices at: 09:07:30, 17 May 2004

157 Roman Arch $4.25 $1.80
132 Larrocha $5.50 $2.10
106 Bel Air $6.00 $2.25
137 Lord Erin $7.50 $2.60
113 Danestorm $12.00 $3.75
156 Riley Redwing $15.00 $4.50
173 Tumeric $17.00 $5.00
172 Transferral $21.00 $6.00
104 Badger's Wood $26.00 $7.25
111 C'mon Mate $26.00 $7.25
138 Majestic Avenue $26.00 $7.25
107 Bello Signor $34.00 $9.25
122 Full Spec $34.00 $9.25
147 Pantani $34.00 $9.25
131 Karasi $51.00 $13.50
141 Milzeel $67.00 $17.50
161 Special Scene $101.00 $26.00
162 Stealth Knight $101.00 $26.00
169 Thundahar $101.00 $26.00
175 Woodcut $101.00 $26.00



Can't see any market movement.

17th May 2004 08:35 AM

badger's wood looks like my eachway bet.fast cash...

Paddy 17th May 2004 10:32 AM

(2) BEL AIR 3200M placegetter in NZ, great win last start to win in record time over 2600M.

(1) ROMAN ARCH ran on well last start over 2600M behind Bel Air.

(12) TRANSFERRAL recent form OK, bred to run the distance.


(10) LARROCHA in fine form of late. Has the polish of Tony McEvoy.

17th May 2004 10:56 AM

what about the track condition ???????

Shaun 17th May 2004 12:18 PM

1-2-3-7 dutch them for the win as well as a quinella then box for the triffecta.....

darkydog2002 17th May 2004 12:33 PM

And dont forget the 2 pies and the bus fare.But good luck anyway.
Cheers.
darky.

Luckyboy 17th May 2004 03:16 PM

Tell me how you can pick Pantani...

Last 3 Starts...

Beaten 9.8l, 22.3l and 13.6l (over slow, good and dead)...

3 wins from 35 starts, career place strike rate of less than 30%...

Sometimes I wonder why I even bother with this punting caper!

LB

sportznut 17th May 2004 03:41 PM

Well, he did win the SA Derby at the same track 2 years ago, and he was also a winner over the distance having won the Duke of Norfolk at Flemington just 2 months ago, carrying 6 kg more than he had today.

Having said all that, no I certainly didn't back him either. I didn't bet at all in the race because it just looked too hard for my liking. Is it just me or do there seem to be a higher % of upset results in big races in SA than there are in other states?

By the way, racecaller Terry McAuliffe did actually pick him 4th today. He picked 2-14-1-5 and they came home 5-16-2-1, so he got 3 of the first 4.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-17 16:58 ]

Luckyboy 17th May 2004 04:56 PM

Hi Sportz,

I remember those wins in particular the Duke of Norfolk wherein I was impressed enough to place a bet on him in the Chairman in Sydney.

But after that it just got worse. I have a trifecta system for 3200m races wherein I put every horse that has won at 2500m and beyond in for third selection.

So, I knew he was around. I just cannot get over such strong form reversals as this. It's not like he was running 11 and 12 beaten 5 or 6 lengths.

I would just like to know how you pick these winners????


Cheers,
Luckyboy

darkydog2002 17th May 2004 06:20 PM

Just as long as you took the pies and the bus fare your in front.
Cheers.
darky.

Paddy 17th May 2004 09:46 PM

07 SMOKE-FREE ADELAIDE
CUP 3YO+
3200 Metres
3:40pm
1ST LEG DAILY DOUBLE
4TH LEG QUADRELLA

WIN/PLACE
5 35.70 8.40
16...............3.70
2...............2.60

QUINELLA (5-16) 165.40
EXACTA (5-16) 268.00
TRIFECTA
(5-16-2) 3,051.60
SPINNER (Mixed) 9.50
FIRST 4
(5-16-2-1) 24,974.40
QUADRELLA
(6-8-8-5) 123,646.40

(5) PANTANI (K.FORRESTER)
(16) DANESTORM (M.WALKER)
(2) BEL AIR (G.CHILDS)

SCR - NIL
Quadrella Sub = 1




darkydog2002 18th May 2004 10:15 AM

Luckyboy.YOU CANT.There a lucky dip.
Stay right out of them.
Cheers.
darky.

topsy99 18th May 2004 10:44 AM

ref form reversal.
on his weight and margin swings he was running 1.6 lengths behind the horse that won his race last time.
that is fairly good.
not such a form reversal really.

declaration of interest. nil. (unfortunately)

Luckyboy 18th May 2004 11:40 AM

darkydog,

Actually, I did not have a bet in the race with my selection Danestorm not providing me with a 100% confidence of handling the going.

The point I was trying to make was how do you gauge (see) this type of form improvement? It is one of the things that irks me most about the punt - long shots winning major races.

Statistically speaking, less than 3% of the total amount invested in the win pool in this race thought Pantani could win. Did they have the knowledge or did they just 'back the grey horse' or follow the 'back greys in the wet adage'?

Dumb money winning is annoying!


Cheers,
Luckyboy

topsy99 18th May 2004 02:45 PM

group one winner.
won over the distance
a win in its last 4 starts.

what more do you want. a telegram.

we are not observant enough nor have enough faith.

Raw Instinct 18th May 2004 05:29 PM

To be honest a month or so ago I thought it would go really close to winning this race but I must admit I haven't really followed the horse over it's last few starts.


Maybe if I had taken a bit more notice I could have given it a chance like they say hindsight is 20/20.


The irony of all this I was sending my father to the TAB last year before the Adelaide Cup to back Pantani only to find out it was scratched I backed Pillage'n'Plunder instead would have been nice if I had gone the same way this year.

darkydog2002 19th May 2004 12:31 PM

I dont like these type races because there far too long/generally too many horses and interference is the general rule.
More checks /blocks /wide running etc etc .the list could go on forever.
The long and the short of it is that hindsight is just wonderful AFTER the event.
Its hard enough on the punt without adding lucky dips to the equation.
Cheers.
darky.


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