Have done a research on Last start winners with C in its pre form.
12/2/04 to 4/5/04
Bets 207
Ret Win 264
Ret Place 210.5
Loosing Streaks
7
8
9
10
11
15
15
The thing is, Its still in profit (level betting ) by $57 almost after three months.
Why should last start winners have a better chance????

GD4TH

[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-05-05 09:56 ]

Good 4th, is that 7 days a week racing??

Could it be that they are in form.?

Could it be that they are in form.?

Yep 7 days betting
Yeah i think they are in form, still they dont win all the time... ************ that
Gd4th

Forgot to mention.
For those that use The power of ten, bets got very scary especially when having 15 losses in a row followed by another 15. This was only ever a paper test but its the best results that i have come up with.
Previous results with other things only managed about a 5 to 10 percent loss so as Big Kev would say.
IM EXCITED.
GD4TH

Hi, Good 4th.

I presume those are the "raw" results with "C" being the only filter?

Is it possible to look at other factors, such as its position in the pre-post market and whether there is now a substantial difference in distance to its winning race?

What was the maximum dividend for the win and how many of them were close to the maximum.

I ran this last year and came to a horrible loss, so obviously there may be some big winners distorting what you might expect over the next three months.

The only other factor was; Had to run within 14 days of this race.
Although 14 days and longer produced some good results as i went through the test run but i did'nt log them down as it was so time consuming.
I did'nt look into other facts as i was looking at the most basic idea that might work, It will fall into a big hole now??????Watch this space..........
average price =$4.543
Biggest Return =$21 twice
I think using the power of ten if you'r BRAVE to maximize the returns,need a big bank chasing targets though.

GD4TH

[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-05-05 17:58 ]

Here is the list without the Track name
RACE NO WIN PLACE

2 5 3.2 1.3
3 4
1 3 3.2 1.3
8 4 1.2
6 9
7 2 5.7 2.1
7 1 3.4 1.3
7 16
5 11
7 8
4 7 2.4
3 1
5 1 1.2
6 8
3 1 1.2 1.1
8 4 1.4
4 6 1.8
6 8 4.6 1.7
8 4 3.7 1.3
8 3
3 2
4 5 7.2 2.4
7 11
8 6
3 1
7 1 1.3
8 2
6 5 2.6 1.8
7 2
7 5 2.7 1.4
7 3
4 1 1.1
8 2
1 1 1.4 1.1
6 6 8.6 3
8 3 1.4
9 4
7 4 2.2 1.2
4 9
5 1 1.2
5 1 1.6
5 1 4.9 2.1
1 1
1 4
8 1 1.4 1.1
7 7 2
5 8
8 3 1.4
9 11
5 2 5.1 1.6
6 10 7.1 3.8
3 1 1.3 1.4
5 3 1.4
5 4
7 1
7 2 2.4 1.2
7 3
7 2 1.4
6 4 1.8
3 2 1.7
4 10 1.1
4 1 1.5
5 11
7 4
4 2
8 9
8 7 1.6
8 1 1.9
5 2
7 5 2.9
6 7 3
1 1 1.1
2 2
3 11 2.4
6 10
7 3
1 1 1.7
8 12 3.4
3 9
5 4 1.7
4 4
4 7 4.1 1.4
6 1 1.7
6 5 5.1 1.8
7 1 1.3
7 3
4 2
6 5
6 2 10.2 2.5
2 2
3 2
6 2 6.1 2.1
6 9 2.1
3 1 1.5 1.2
1 6
6 1
2 1 2
3 1
8 6
5 4 3.9 1.7
2 1 1.1
3 1
7 2 2.4 1.4
7 6 1.7
2 3 1.4
6 6 1.7
1 13 21 4.6
3 2
2 4
5 7
1 6 1.7
7 13
7 7 1.2
7 2 1.8
8 5
6 4
8 1 2
8 9
5 10 3.9
6 3
6 9
7 5 3.1 1.8
3 1
4 4 1.6
4 4 2.1 1.3
5 6 4.4 1.8
1 1 3.7 1.7
2 3
4 6 2.1
3 1 1.3
4 8
6 12 2.1
6 7
4 8
7 2
7 7
7 3 5 2.3
8 10 21 3.8
4 3 5.8 2
8 9
1 1 1.2
8 7 7.7 2.6
7 4
6 5 2.6 1.3
7 10
2 5 1.2
6 5
3.1 1.4
7 3 5.5
3 2
3 1 6.1 1.7
5 5
2 1 2.4
6 9
3 3 1.04
8 5 2 1.2
8 2
3 9 1.8 1.2
4 4
2 4 1.2
4 6 2.2
7 15
6 4 2.5
8 8
2 2 1.5
3 1
3 3 1.5 1.04
7 7 6.1 2
6 8 7.3 1.6
6 2 2
8 7 4.4
7 8
8 11
5 7 2.1 1.2
6 1 1.4 1.1
6 16
8 2 1.1
4 4 2.9 1.6
6 2 3.1 1.5
7 7 7.4 2.6
7 8 0 2.6
8 3 4.7 1.2
3 5
8 3
3 1
8 3 4.5 1.9
6 10
1 3
7 8
1 2 1.4
2 3 1.7
4 2
7 3 2.6 1.4
3 1
3 6
7 12 2.7 1.4
7 4
6 11 2.2
7 8
6 2 4.5 2.2
7 6
8 1 2.2
1 4 2.7 1.4
2 3 2 1.2
4 1 4.4 1.8
2 4 6 1.7
7 8


263.5 210.48
wins 58
avp 4.543
Strike 28%
Races 207
Hope thats of some use.

[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-05-05 18:15 ]

[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-05-05 18:16 ]

hi good 4th and chrome prince, I to have followed this system from 14th April exactly as written. My loosing streak has been 5, although today had 5 selection with the last one just winning now - Border Control, I have also capped my pre post price. my results so far:-

14th april - 4th may 3 weeks
sun-fri 36 bets =
win x 17, return $83.35
place x 23, return $42.70
sat only 14 bets =
win x 6, return $24.15
place x 10, return $19.20

The biggest return was on 29/4 bunbury R7-7 Tactarki at $9 pre post, and returned $13.43. ($7.40 tab) my results are NOT tab prices.

Results from 25th april - 5th may -from 15 days to 21 days only
11 bets @ 6 wins $25.75, 10 place $17.70

Results from 25th April - 5th May - all distances - seperate from above-
11 bets @ 2 wins $9.00 & 5 places $9.50

so far so good.

p.s. actually always slick was the biggest winner on 21/4 was $5.50 pre post and paid $16.00


[ This Message was edited by: alblyn on 2004-05-05 18:50 ]

Has anyone got results for last start winners within 7 days

Hi good4th,

This is what I was getting at, 90% of your profit comes from only 2 winners.

Not saying that this won't repeat, just that 3 months data or 200 bets is dangerous ground (not enough).

I've run systems using only 3 months data before, showing 25% POT and the next 3 months turned a 20% loss.

I learned it was because of the imbalance of large dividends.

It would be interesting to know the average price of the winners and the same for the losers [without including any longshots above $10 as that would skew any average result].

Power of ten ? Great on paper ONLY.

Cheers.

Yep i thought this thing would fall over as i do believe all systems do fail.....
So what works?

GD4TH

I believe this type of system will always fail at level stakes in the long run, BUT, there can be some incredible profitable patches, I believe the trick is to capitalise on those winning streaks and ride out th losing ones, and hopefully make a killing when it comes.eg (very briefly) say you have a losing system but at one point produced a good run of 6/1, 5/1, L, 3/1, L, 8/1,
starting with a $30 bank and betting 1/3 of the bank (not reducing), this sequnce (which was picked at random)would have reached $1162 at the last winner. Lets say you have a goal of $1000, so now you revert back to the $30 bank and start again. Needless to say there is some frustrating times when there is 3 losers in a row after a good run, but sometimes there is a residue left, which then goes into the coffers.

By the way this idea is NOT my bread and butter, but I do enjoy mucking around like this with relativly small amounts to start.

Great plan if u could pick'em.

Is that maths right Party??? as i cant work it out to sum to $1162.

GD4TH

Rules.
Last start winner with C.

Lets see what happens Using the Power of Ten

Meet rc sel win odds
Rock 1 4 0 7
Rock 1 5 0 12
Rock 4 5 3.5 WINNER
Wag 4 12 0 40
Pt Ag 4 1 0 2
Rock 7 7 6.7 WINNER
Wag 7 9 6.7
Wag 7 15 59
Rock 8 3 3.8 WINNER
Bun 6 5 still to race.

Betting to target $20
Cost$31
Pot $24
Stop betting at Rock 7

Why does'nt this thing format proper.
Sorry its all messed up.

GD4TH

[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-05-06 17:08 ]

[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-05-06 17:10 ]

[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-05-06 17:12 ]

[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-05-06 17:15 ]

With the POWER OF 10 the recommended bank is 40 times the amount you want to win over 10 bets.
i.e If you want to win $100 over the 10 bets or an average of $10 a race then the bank required is $4000.
If the bets get hairy just add another maximum divisor or even 2 maximum divisors to bring the bet level back to whats comfortable for you.
Betting sensibly theres not too much trouble you can get into with this plan and I have been using it since its inception.
Cheers.
darky.

Good 4th, nah, that was a very quick mental calculation, can't be bothered doing it longhand it will be somewhere near anyway.
Needles to say the bet could be 1/4, 1/5, 1/6, of the bank whatever depending on the S/R etc.
Personally though I think it is futile to pursue a staking plan IF the basic method does not show a profit at level stakes over a long period.
Mind you that is only after me trying to make a loser into a winner using many methods over many years.

just read that and realised that I didn't point out that, say for instance in that sequence that I sited, you may have had 15 losers b4hand, and say 6 losers after, so on a level stakes basis 27bets for a return of 26, but using my eg. of $30 bank betting 1/3 (non reducing) you have 7 losing banks = $210, but pick up $1100+ on the winning streak.