COLLINGWOOD v ADELAIDE

collingwood have won 15/20 against adelaide, including 6 of the last 7 and the only 1 played at docklands.

last 4 games:
R14 2002 COLLINGWOOD 138-116 @ FOOTBALL PK
P/F 2002 COLLINGWOOD 91-63 @ M.C.G
R 7 2003 COLLINGWOOD 114-109 @ FOOTBALL PK
R20 2003 COLLINGWOOD 108-71 @ DOCKLANDS

MELBOURNE v KANGAROOS

melb and kangaroos have won 4 each in their last 8 clashes.

last 4 games:
R14 2001 KANGAROOS 121-93 @ M.C.G
R 9 2002 MELBOURNE 111-107 @ M.C.G
E/F 2002 MELBOURNE 122-84 @ M.C.G
R15 2003 KANGAROOS 101-94 @ M.C.G

FREEMANTLE v BRIS LIONS

freemantle have won 4/10 againgst the lions, with all 4 being at subiaco [4/6]

last 4 games:
R 5 2001 BRIS LIONS 171-122 @ GABBA
R20 2001 BRIS LIONS 138-87 @ SUBIACO
R 9 2002 BRIS LIONS 109-79 @ GABBA
R14 2003 FREEMANTLE 75-72 @ SUBIACO

GEELONG v ESSENDON

geelong have only won 1 of their last 6 games against essendon, and winning 1/4 that have been played at docklands.

last 4 games:
R15 2001 ESSENDON 127-112 @ DOCKLANDS
R 1 2002 ESSENDON 126-76 @ M.C.G
R16 2002 GEELONG 95-56 @ DOCKLANDS
R13 2003 ESSENDON 129-93 @ DOCKLANDS

PT ADELAIDE v RICHMOND

pt adel have won 7/9 against richmond and all 6 played at football pk.

last 4 games:
R15 2001 PT ADEL 96-52 @ FOOTBALL PK
R12 2002 PT ADEL 154-70 @ FOOTBALL PK
R 6 2003 PT ADEL 84-57 @ FOOTBALL PK
R21 2003 PT ADEL 124-104 @ DOCKLANDS

SWANS v HAWTHORN

the swans have won 6 of their last 7 games against hawthorn at the s.c.g, losing the last one played there. hawthorn have won their last 4 games against the swans.

last 4 games:
E/F 2001 HAWTHORN 129-74 @ DOCKLANDS
R14 2002 HAWTHORN 74-64 @ M.C.G
R 4 2003 HAWTHORN 110-68 @ M.C.G
R19 2003 HAWTHORN 110-93 @ S.C.G

CARLTON v W/BULLDOGS

carlton have won 6/11 against the w/bulldogs and 5/8 at optus oval,including 3 of the last 4 times they met.

last 4 games:
R13 2001 CARLTON 153-92 @ OPTUS OVAL
R 6 2002 W/BULLDOGS 96-68 @ DOCKLANDS
R21 2002 CARLTON 99-97 @ DOCKLANDS
R 8 2003 CARLTON 107-100 @ OPTUS OVAL

ST KILDA v W/COAST

since 2000, st kilda have played w/coast 7 times for 2 wins and 1 draw, with those 2 wins and 1 draw being from the 4 games that have been played at docklands

last 4 games:
R18 2001 W/COAST 171-79 @ SUBIACO
R10 2002 ST KILDA 127-77 @ DOCKLANDS
R 3 2003 W/COAST 144-74 @ SUBIACO
R18 2003 ST KILDA 128-67 @ DOCKLANDS

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-05-19 14:29 ]

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-05-19 14:36 ]

looking at the early odds Bris Lions @ $2.10 and W/Bulldogs @ 2.10 look good value

As a Brisbane Lions fan, I sure hope that your right. Not confident though. Freo are VERY tough to beat over there these days.

Yes, i know they getting better all the time , but last time the lions were pipped on the post, and every team that goes over there is the outsider, but the lions are not every other team, they are all Class. With Browny suspended i hope they blow out to $2.20 so i can have another go.

St.Kilda didn't have much trouble doing it so
Brisbane should also deliver the bacon.
What does your guts tell you Floydyboy?.

Actually beg to differ, Freo performances at home this season I consider below their norm.

My guts says that I might have a lazy ton on the double it seems like an overs bet

sorry i misread something somewhere Ill certainly be backing bris at those odds but the saints are a bit short for me playing over there

[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-05-20 10:49 ]

Bris 2.25(spodds)
Cant 1.45
Dosen't look a bad double at a tad over $3
IMO

Huh? You do seem a bit confused. St Kilda are playing in Melbourne this week. It's Brisbane that's playing at Subiaco.

Personally, I agree that Fremantle haven't been quite as good at home this year, but I still think they'll give Brisbane a heap of trouble.

yep ya right when i wrote that i hadnt even looked at the teams and i was confused but I had a squiz and came up with that last post

couple of short prices with teams that are out of form, so straight out and multi's i'll look for value.

Bris lions to win 1-39 @ $2.80
w/bulldogs to win 1-39 @ $2.65
hawthorn to win 1-39 @ $3.60
kangaroos to win 1-39 @ $2.75

Goldmember
When I play those margin bets,and my team is about 37 or so points in front during the last quarter,it ruins the game as a spectacle.
I start hoping my team misses the shot for goal and cursing players.
I now think better to take the shorter odds the win and just get in the collect window.

Yeah, I never take that sort of margin bet either. It's hard enough to simply pick the winning team without also having to hope that they don't actually win by too much!

I will sometimes back teams to win OVER the margin if my ratings say that they're going to absolutely thrash the opposition, but I never pick teams to win UNDER the margin.

Moeee, tried the shorts last year and there is always 1 team that stuffs up a weekends football.I try to mix up multi's and cut down on legs, getting better value and not outlaying as much. These aren't all multi bets, there just what i think are value selections , i will probably back the the kangaroos,w/bulldogs,hawthorn,and geelong with A start and mix them up with margins along with league bets and do the same with league and afl, but as you know with sportodds you cant multi some different options as you can with sportstab so i'll pick between the two and mix them up

cheers

Still think it ruins it a bit when your team is marginally under the 40 points.
But thats probably me and my personality.
Tell you what though.
I had St.Kilda to beat Brisbane by 1 to 12 pts. and I loved that game,umpire errors regardless.

Goldmember - What does it mean "tried the shorts" - Excuse my ignorance,but I'm here to learn.

Mo.


[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-05-21 12:13 ]

All depends on the games you pick, if its a hard game and the team i think can win is the outsider, well i wouldnt take them 40+.I only bet on the margins ocasionally anyway, but i thought there a good price, better than backing them straight out, if there gunna lose, there gunna lose, might as well get a better price.

cheers

Comprende Goldmember.
How then would you have felt,if you backed the kangaroos last week?.
Your selection bolts in and the bookies still get your money.Found another way of getting beaten.
Maybe split your stake in a ratio of 90% (1-39) and 10% (40+).Not too big a dent in return if your smaller margin gets up.

Mo.

Well the Port stats that you have provided speak for me.
They spoke for Hawthorn,Kangaroos and Geelong last week.
Ports shocker last week?
Kangaroos had a shocker prior to your research to their chances against Port.

The Carlton game is a bit harder to see.
Its more in the last 4 times they met at Optus.

Actually,On second thoughts,I wish I left this game out and just stuck with Port and Brisbane.

Mo.

moeee, last year i took pick your own starts and was taking anywhere from +12.5t to +45.5 ,and $1.15 to $1.50 and most of them were the top teams and favourites, but sometimes the bludgers got flogged, so now i pick more carefully and go for better value and limit selections to 1 or a couple of teams in the AFL andthe same in NRL and have got better results.

cheers

Yeah, that's what I always think. If you back the outsider to win UNDER the margin and they win OVER, you've correctly tipped an upset and still lost. Personally, if I think the underdogs are going to win, I'll generally play safe and back them on the line. I had the Kangaroos with the start last week and that bet was never really in doubt. If I had backed them 1-39 which is the result I would have predicted, then I wouldn't have been happy at all.

Is it just me or are the games pretty uninspiring this week in both NRL and AFL? I think this will be a rather quiet betting weekend for me on both sports.

sportz, i backed the kangaroos straight out last week because of the poor away record of port, nothing else, the roos were at home so i backed them, but if they were away to port i might have bet on the margin instead, if i thought they could win..
The teams i picked this week, bris,kangaroos, hawthorn and w/bulldogs are in what i call close but winnable games and are the away teams, I think they can win , away teams are more likely to win under rather than over, buts only my opinion.

I hope you see what i mean, as i said before i only bet on this method ocasionally, when i see a suitable game.

cheers

Agree with you sportz, nothing jumped up at me this week, just a few small multis , the NRL is average due to 3 byes and players missing to s.o.o so i have looked at the w/ tigers to lift me, but i'm looking forward to watching the dockers/ lions clash in a whats looks to be a ho hum weekend.

Sportznut
After last weeks effort you're probably all out of adrenalin.
Count your winnings.Smell them,enjoy the feel.Don't go giving them back for the sake of having a bet.
In a fortnight you will get the rush back.
Gambling addiction is only a curse when it gets out of hand.

"sometimes the bludgers got flogged"
Goldmember! Thats okay to say about horses and jockeys,but never say that about an AFL player.If you and me could win all the time,do you think the world would be a more interesting place.
So much for todays Psychology lesson.
All tongue in cheek,aye

Onyas all - Mo.

Do any of you have any reason to think that Richmond might beat Port today .
In essence is $1.47 fair to good odds or not
I think ,,,yep
or drawing a comparison which is better value

Port 1.47
or
Brumbies 1.48
I think .. Port
Opinions appreciated

[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-05-22 09:30 ]

Floydyboy,i normally back port at home, they have a few out,franco, primus ,carr, pickett, kingsley, but still a fairly strong team on paper, tredrea,the cornes brothers,the burgoyne bros,wakelin,dew and wanganeen. I backed them 2 weeks ago against adelaide and they were ordinary and last week they were pathetic against the kangaroos and if they do what the w/bulldogs did last week [play small men on him] they could lose this one,i hope they play bishop on richardson to minimise his input, honestly i dont think their any value at that price,i rate them a $1.70 chance, so i will be just watching the game.

Their record over there might get them home,also richo has kicked only 16 goals in 7 games against port, but they wont be carrying mine this time.

cheers

When I make my selections for the AFL,I go back further than the last start of each team.
Assess what a team is capable of scoring and then subtracting points for poor recent form.
After round-5,I had Port capable of scoring about 109 and Richmond 65,a margin of 44 points to Port.
Since then I penalise Port 4 pts. for Adelaide loss,and another 9 for Kangas loss.
Richmond gains 2 points for Hawks win.Only 4 points for Sydney mud win and another 2 pts. for Bulldogs.Beating bottom of the ladder teams is no big deal.
So Port can kick 96 points and Richmond 73.
Port by 23,plus another 9 for home ground advantage.
32 points comes out to $1.22 Port
$5.50 Richmond.
Players missing,Wanganeen again.Don't know what to allow for that.So I don't.If you like to take 15 points off then the margin becomes 17.
Port $1.44 - Richmond $3.25
No value now.

It needs to be done now not after the game.
I spend a lot of time in my local TAB.
Favourite past-time of many punters is showing losing tickets and then saying I was gunna or I shooda.

Good Luck all.
Mo.

They have been slipping since winning their opening 3 games, losing to melb[73 pts]beating w/bulldogs " beating a bottom of the ladder team is no big deal", struggled to beat collingwood, bottom of the ladder- no big deal again and losing to the crows and then last weeks shamble, and you rated them @ $1.22. ????

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-05-22 10:26 ]

See how it helps when you have a look from the other side of the fence ?
I thought I had penalized Port enough but it seems not.
You analyzed Ports form very well Goldmember.
I'll have a go by memory of Richmond.
Big win against Collingwood,was it a belting by Melbourne?,certainly was by St.Kilda,and Geelong,spat on after Crows,Hawthorn playing even worse,great leveller rain,okay good win against the Bulldogs.
I think whatever happens its probably a good game to sterr clear of.
But a system is a system,so forgive me of setting my wager.

Cheers mo.

No problemmo moeee, i just thought they were under the odds, doesn't mean they can't win. just take a look last night in the NRL , Parramatta were in the same boat , going like yesterdays news, but because St george had 10 players out,they were at home, they went out at $1.48, guess what! stgeorge won 37-6

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-05-22 10:58 ]

Don't know nothing about other types of football.Probably not much about AFL either.
But I do remember being at the Valley one year when about six top players were missing from Hawthorn from the week before.
The dunstall,brereton,platten,bookends Hawthorn.
I think I got $4.
It just goes to show,sometimes the players do put in that much harder when the chips are down.
Could be the sign of a great coach.

Mo.

In the end, I had just one bet in the AFL, Fremantle to beat Brisbane. I was surprised that some of you were keen to back Brisbane with so many players missing and a terrible record at Subiaco. I'm a Lions fan, but I made Fremantle my best bet of the weekend.

Brisbane are looking shot with all these injuries and suspensions. Doesn't look good for them for the next few weeks.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-22 18:32 ]

Okay, in the end, this is what I did:
AFL
Fremantle to beat Brisbane - 3 units
NRL
St Geo/Ill (+6.5) vs Parra - 1 unit
N.Qld (+5.5) vs Penrith - 1 unit
Souths (+6.5) vs N.Z - 1 unit
S12
Crusaders (+6.5) vs Brumbies - 1 unit

I thought Freo were good things this week, Souths and NQ are tips for my Home Dog system, the Crusaders are a bit of a saver bet after having backed the Brumbies at $3 a month ago, and I just thought St George were great value.

well the lions sure cost me couldnt even cover the 22.5 start thats ************ed all my multis and shortened up my weekend but ive plonked on port(against good advice) thatll either bring me back or kill me .
And layed Bastia against PSG in the French soccer

Well done Floydyboy for your Port bet.
Anything I can learn from finding out who gave you the (against good advice.) advice.

Also I'm a bit of a pervert as regards reading past posts.And I seem to notice that you Sportznut seem to pick a lot of winners after the race has run.eg:Fremantle.
If your worried that there is going to be a massive betting plunge if you divulge you tip,I can understand.If you're embarrassed about tipping a loser,it doesn't hurt near as much as it hurts your own bank balance.

C'mon share sometimes

Mo.

If you think I'm 'bragging' after the event or something then I'll stop.

It's not embarassing to lose. Everyone does it. What IS embarrassing is when someone makes a bold statement or tip before the event and ends up being horribly wrong. I think they look like a goose.

If you are a keen reader of past posts go back to page 1 of this thread and you'll see that while some others were tipping Brisbane, my posts certainly suggested that I thought otherwise. However, I didn't come right out and say Fremantle WILL beat the Lions, because that's just not my style.

As for sharing, a couple of months ago, I outlined the rules of my Home Dog line betting system and anybody on here could have backed all those selections and made a nice profit. Another winner tonight in the Cowboys.

It has been a pretty ordinary weekend so far for my AFL bets, with kangaroos and lions going down,had a saver on geelong ,but the way my luck has gone so far hawthorn and w/bulldogs will have to carry a few extra kg's. Moeee, do get into bed the way you get out, the wrong side?.
Sportz, and every one that write posts, are here to help,and i have backed winners reading them and hopefully i have helped someone else back a winner, never saw sportz brag about picking A winner , keep up the good work sportz,always look forward to yor thoughts,and i hope someone gets out of bed on the right side this morning LOL.
Floydyboy, good onya with port, your money was pretty safe during the game, as i said before i didn't think they were value, but i never said they couldn't win.



cheers


[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-05-23 08:37 ]

Jeez Sportz I tip lotsa losers Like my Bris-Canterbury-Penrith treble 1unit (1big unit)but thats life I dont feel like a goose .. If I win ,I win if I lose so be it ...I had 6 units on port.So I suppose that UNgooses
me.
Anyway fellas besides all that Im grateful for the input from you guys stats, injuries and opinions its a great help in making my decisions whether they be right or wrong.
HONK

And I layed Freeo @1.77 for 1unit

HONK HONK