BULLDOGS v ROOSTERS

The bulldogs have won 6 of the last 9 games against the roosters and the only 2 played at stadium australia. R17 2000,22-16 and R9 2003,32-26 .

last 4 games:
R 9 2003 BULLDOGS 32-26 @ STADIUM AUST.
R13 2003 BULLDOGS 28-18 @ S.F.S
FIN 2003 ROOSTERS 28-18 @ S.F.S
R 3 2004 ROOSTERS 35- 0 @ S.F.S

STORM v W/TIGERS

The storm have won 5/7 against the w/tigers and all 3 played at olympic pk.

last 4 games:
R18 2001 STORM 64- 0 @ OLYMPIC PK
R17 2002 STORM 26-20 @ OLYMPIC PK
R24 2002 W/TIGERS 26-16 @ LEICHARDT
R16 2003 STORM 16- 8 @ OLYMPIC PK

STGEORGE ILL v COWBOYS

The saints have won 5/9 against the cowboys and all 3 played at wollongong.

last 4 games:
R12 2002 COWBOYS 40-32 @ DAIRY FARMERS
R16 2002 STGEORGE 45-18 @ WOLLONGONG
R12 2003 COWBOYS 36-16 @ KOGARAH
R19 2003STGEORGE 36-16 @ DAIRY FARMERS

KNIGHTS v EELS

The knights have won 5 of the last 8 games against the eels and 10/13 at newcastle. The last 4 games between these two have been won by the home team.

last 4 games:
R17 2002 KNIGHTS 24-18 @ NEWCASTLE
R 3 2003 EELS 30-12 @ PARRA STADIUM
R16 2003 KNIGHTS 30-16 @ NEWCASTLE
R 3 2004 EELS 38-34 @ PARRA STADIUM

WARRIORS v RAIDERS

They have met 8 times at ericsson stadium for 4 wins each, with the warriors winning 4 of the last 6 clashes.

last 4 games:
FIN 2002 WARRIORS 36-20 @ ERICSSON
R11 2003 RAIDERS 18-10 @ W/PAC ST.wellington
R15 2003 WARRIORS 26-18 @ ERICSSON
FIN 2003 WARRIORS 17-16 @ S.F.S

MANLY v PENRITH

Penrith have won their last 3 against MANLY, but in between [2/6 aginst the nthn eagles]and penrith have only won 2 of their last 6 at brookvale.

last 4 games:
R 3 2002 NTHN EAGLES 28-24 @ PENRITH
R16 2002 PENRITH 68-28 @ BROOKVALE
R15 2003 PENRITH 30-29 @ PENRITH
R26 2003 PENRITH 52-26 @ BROOKVALE

BRONCOS v SHARKS

The broncos have won 6 of the last 9 clashes, plus the last 5 home games against the sharks and all 4 games played at suncorp

last 4 games:
FIN 2001 SHARKS 22- 6 @ TOYOTA PK
R 4 2002 BRONCOS 18-16 @ ANZ STADIUM
R 3 2003 BRONCOS 30- 4 @ ANZ STADIUM
R21 2003 SHARKS 20-10 @ TOYOTA PK

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-02 14:25 ]

and your picks are....
Mine are
Roosters*
Melbourne*
Newcastle
Saints
Warriors in an upset(but dont hold me to it)
Penrith*
Brisbane*

[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-06-02 15:55 ]

ROOSTERS*
STORM*
COWBOYS
KNIGHTS
RAIDERS
PANTHERS
BRONCOS*

Floydy, the only reason i went for the raiders is they are playing the worriers, But they have only won 2/6 away games this year, R1 against stgeorge 21-12 and R3 against the cowboys 19-18 ?.Since then, they lost 38-24 to the sharks, 28-8 to the roosters,26-12 to the w/tigers and threw the game away against the storm 22-18, letting in 2 trys in the last couple of minutes.Playing any other side i would tip against them, but not this time.

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-02 15:54 ]

The roosters have already have been backed into $1.75 giving 3.5

Ill be having straight out Multi on the teams ive put an asterix next to and Ill be looking at those NRL extras this weekend

ok, have you been reading my mind, LOL signing off now.

cheers

Picking who will win and picking who you think is value is totally different. I'd like to see where you guys think the value is.

Here are my systems plays for the NRL:

Bulldogs +5.5.
Storm -6.5
Eels +9.5
Cowboys +10.5
Warriors +2.5
Panthers -6.5
Sharks +10.5

Average price of $1.98.

Gold,
Reckon the Warriors have even more problems with Tony Kemp at the helm...who has he coached? Heard from an insider that Stacey Jones is heading for England...apparently personal issues have hurt his game these last few months...mmm he has not even looked one tenth of the player he was a couple of years ago!

In the EPL a lot of teams do well for a couple of games after a management change...but Im staying away from the Warriors they played like wooden spooners last week- mind you the Roosters played some incredible football too!

Reckon the Storm will come out on top of the Tigers after an initial tight struggle in the first 2/3 of the match (with Cameron Smith again shining- he has come on in leaps and bounds), Newcastle and the Broncos will win...the Dragons to win against the Cowboys (only because they are playing at Win Stadium) and Penrith even without their starting halves will be too good for Manly.

As for my Doggies...they have a strong forward pack but lack the class and finishing out wide...Roosters are slowly getting their first team out on the paddock (which is really scary) and looked formidable last week...going to be a beauty and lots of points scored! (Hopefully not a repeat of the 35-0 thrashing Canterbury received from Easts last time around)...Doggies will have to smash the Roosters forwards into submission (a very difficult mission) to have any chance...
Good luck all this weekend!

Just back from a short spell desi,
Roosters are the best bet of the weekend, got in quick on wednesday to get the $1.60, [i rated them $1.33] I cant believe they have got corey hughes at 1/2 and moved sherwin to 5/8. hard to pick the margin, but i think anywhere from 16-22 pts.

Storm should win, but not a big margin, their 1st 2 wins against the w/tigers were white washes but their last 2 by less than 10 and the tigers are improving.

On paper, the knights should win, only because the eels are crap at the moment, but i can never catch either team when they play each other, home ground advantage to the knights,i will stay away from this game???

Last year the saints were hot favourites against the cowboys, and they never got hot,they were outplayed in every department by them and i think they can do it again, cowboys to win.

Like i said before , raiders only because their playing the warriors.

Panthers, might get home, but there's a lot of money for manly again and although they have lost the last 2 there against the panthers, they do have a good record there against them, 50/50 game.

Broncos another good thing, the word is lockyer will play, just get on.


[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-04 16:27 ]

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-04 16:31 ]

I'm thinking about betting on the Roosters to be winning at half time and full time ($1.75). Is anybody else making this bet?

No primo, i'll be looking for better value, but it should be a good safe bet though, put some more on it now.

goldmember would you care to share some better value with me?

Have'nt been on line that long this afternoon, and was just looking through some betting options and some posts , so i will put some up after iv'e gone through all the games , wont be too long .

I dont know where your betting at but on nsw sportstab the ROOSTERS HT/FT is still $2.00, that very good value.

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-04 17:21 ]

TAB
https://www.ozbet.com.au/index.htm

is that in w.a

yeah. I just found a great value bet.

Pick 4:
Collingwood-Roosters-Coria-Nalbandian
Return: $3.00

would you recommend this bet?

Looks o'k, but my tennis bets so far have been ordinary, but does look a good bet.

I've lost a lot of money in this French Open so it's important for me to make it back.

I just bet $20 on it for return of $60

[ This Message was edited by: primo on 2004-06-04 17:30 ]

O'k, theres a lot of value bets out there, but i will back each and take some multi's around these.
ROOSTERS 13+ @ $2.65
NTH QLD WIN @ $3.50
BRONCOS 13+ @ $2.10

or

ROOSTERS TRY @ $2.15
STORM TRY @ $2.00
BRONCOS TRY @ 1.85
NTH QLD GOAL @ $7.00

dont know if you can bet on these , but if you can:
ROOSTERS 31-40 PTS @ $4.50
STORM 31-40 PTS @ $3.40
BRONCOS 31-40PTS @ $3.00

and h2d, most trys
MINICHELLO [patten] @ $3.25
SLATER [hodgson] @ $2.55
TATE [vagana]@ $3.30

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-04 17:54 ]

" I've lost a lot of money in this French Open so it's important for me to make it back."

That's never a good reason to bet...

"I just bet $20 on it for return of $60"

Unless it's play money for a bit of fun :wink:

I'd think there was NO VALUE on your coria bet, there would have definatly been value on Bandy.

My computer model suggests a bad bet on the roosters. Although judging by other peoples comments and the injuries to the dogs, the returns to the roosters etc you're probally ok there.

Also suggests a bad bet on collingwood since my computer model only has them winning it by 8.5.

I'd love to say I wish you luck, but I've got more money on it than you so I'm hoping you are wrong :wink:

Mr J, when I say I've lost a lot of money I only mean about $40 which is money that was won on other bets anyway.

I don't know what this computer model you're talking about is, please tell me about it.

And about the $20 bet, I was talking about this:
Collingwood-Roosters-Coria-Nalbandian

Tell me what bets you have made too.

On another site their computer model had the bullbogs a 53% winning chance, but sometimes you have to go on form not what the computer selects, i noticed they also pick a few outsiders in the afl, not sure but it might go on H2D and other stats right back to the beginning, which can be misleading as the league has changed a lot lately and they dont really apply that heavily now days. please correct me if i'm wrong about how yours or other models run.

"I only mean about $40 "

I realize that. Re-read my post and look at the "Unless it's play money for a bit of fun " :wink: written right underneath the quote.

"I don't know what this computer model you're talking about is, please tell me about it."

It's a computer model I used for Super 12s where it went 53-16. I started using it the 2nd half of the season where it went 27-11. I had tested it on the first half where it went 24-4.

Testing on the NRL & AFL so far has it at 38-13 and 23-9 respectively. 38-13 is better than 1 in 1000 which means it's probally profitable there. 23-9 for the AFL is not significant statistically but I'm optimistic given the results of the S12s and NRL.

It is a pretty simple system, works to accurately predict home advantage, road performance, effects of travel etc and a bit of H2H. It does NOT factor in motivation, injuries & returns (hello roosters vs 'dogs), weather, state of origin etc.

H2H isn't really that important and hardly ever alters my predicted score enough to change what side my system recomends.

BTW, I bet on (I bet made many more bets than these, these are just the ones I made that involved the same sporting event as yours):

West Coast +20.5
Cant.Bdogs +5.5

Didn't bet on the tennis although I agree with your bet on Bandy.

I highly doubt coria is value. My system says -8.5 for collingwood is fair. You might very well have the right side for the rooster-dogs game though. My system doesn't take injuries & returns into account.

[ This Message was edited by: floydyboy on 2004-06-04 21:09 ]

floydboy why did you delete what you wrote?

Because I spoke about the state of play in the match and realised what time it was and that it wasnt being shown live.
Dont ya just hate it when some one tells you the score and you want to watch the match . I was watching the live scores coming through ...Im watching the tennis

What I said basically was ...... Like last week I built my weekends betting around Parra and they were flogged.....Same story with easts this weekend ........ flogged.But ill just have to soldier on without them and my dollars hahahaha

Yeah, I was avoiding all the live scores and then I saw your post and it sort of spoiled it. Never mind Floydyboy. Honest mistake.

Damn Nalbandian better pick up his game!!!

it looks like Guadio will win.

HONK !! And before you ask Primo old mate that means Im a goose

[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-06-04 22:13 ]

nalbandian is serving 4-1 up now.

[ This Message was edited by: primo on 2004-06-04 22:21 ]

Well, I give up. He was 5-2 up and lost the 2nd set, so I'm going to bed. The way things are going, Henman will probably beat Coria in straight sets or something. :roll:

I guarantee Coria will not lose to Henman.

Guarantee is a very dangerous word in any sort of gamble. Unless you already knew the result, which you obviously didn't judging by the time of your post :wink:

Henman did manage to take a set though...

Roosters busted nearly all my accts, back to square one, lucky i dont bet like the pro's, doing $thousands, but i'll banker the two banana benders this weekend all up into multi multi's, including pts scored bets.
[broncos and lions]
QUEENSLANDER QUEENSLANDER

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-05 12:21 ]

Youre not the lone ranger They didnt clean me out financially but they cleaned out my friday double and all my multis.Ive just redone my multis without the roosters
My main one is Storm Broncos Penrith to win
How do ya do it Goldmemeber Ive been up here 3 years and I still cant say queenslander with that much enthusiam.