COLLINGWOOD v W/COAST

collingwood have won only 2 of the last 14 aginst w/coast and 1/3 at docklands

last 4 games:
R12 2001 COLLINGWOOD 173- 92 @ DOCKLANDS
R 2 2002 COLLINGWOOD 120-119 @ M.C.G
R17 2002 W/COAST 114-56 @ SUBIACO
R 8 2003 W/COAST 119-103 @ DOCKLANDS

HAWTHORN v ESSENDON

The hawks have lost their last 8 against essendon and the last 4 played at the M.C.G

R 9 2001 ESSENDON 122-57 @ DOCKLANDS
P/F 2001 ESSENDON 76-67 @ M.C.G
R12 2002 ESSENDON 72-65 @ M.C.G
R 8 2003 ESSENDON 106-53 @ M.C.G

ADELAIDE v CARLTON

The crows have won 4 of the last 5 and 3/5 played at football pk.

last 4 games:
R19 2001 ADELAIDE 106-53 @ FOOTBALL PK
E/F 2001 CARLTON 118-50 @ M.C.G
R 9 2002 ADELAIDE 131-75 @ OPTUS OVAL
R13 2003 ADELAIDE 92-50 @ OPTUS OVAL

BRIS LIONS v PT ADELAIDE

The lions have 5 wins and 2 draws from 9 games played at the gabba against port, winning 4 of the last 5 there.

last 4 games:
R22 2002 PT ADEL 90- 84 @ FOOTBALL K
P/F 2002 BRIS LIONS 138- 82 @ GABBA
R 2 2003 BRIS LIONS 86- 76 @ FOOTBALL PK
R17 2003 PT ADEL 104-103 @ GABBA

KANGAROOSv RICHMOND

The kangaroos have won 6 of the last 8 and 2/3 at docklands against richmond

last 4 games:
R 6 2001 RICHMOND 129-78 @ DOCKLANDS
R21 2001 RICHMOND 92-88 @ M.C.G
R11 2002 KANGAROOS 95-84 @ DOCKLANDS
R11 2003 KANGAROOS 92-89 @ DOCKLANDS

SWANS v ST KILDA

The swans have 7 wins and 1 draw in the last 9 clashes with st kilda and have won the last 5 played at the S.C.G

last 4 games:
R21 2001 SWANS 142-55 @ S.C.G
R 5 2002 DRAW 56-56 @ DOCKLANDS
R20 2002 SWANS 87-80 @ S.C.G
R15 2003 SWANS 112-61 @ S.CG

W/BULLDOGS v GEELONG

W/bulldogs have won 5 of their 6 games against geelong, both have 1 win each at docklands.

last 4 games:
R12 2001 W/BULLDOGS 126-119 @ DOCKLANDS
R 9 2002 W/BULLDOGS 117-105 @ SKILLED ST.
R 1 2003 W/BULLDOGS 130- 91 @ DOCKLANDS
R16 2003 W/BULLDOGS 99- 81 @ SKILLED ST

FREEMANTLE v MELBOURNE

The dockers have won 6/14 against melb and both have 2 wins from the 4 games played at subiaco.

last 4 games:
R 6 2001 MELBOURNE 119-74 @ SUBIACO
R21 2001 MELBOURNE 114-79 @ DOCKLANDS
R 8 2002 FREEMANTLE 94-89 @ SUBIACO
R 9 2003 FREEMANTLE 101-71 @ M.C.G

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-02 15:01 ]

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-02 15:05 ]

What are anyone's thoughts on st kilda,do you think they will or can beat the swans by 40+ because i was thinking of taking st kilda to win 1-39 @ $2.40 instead of $1.20 straight out.

Jeez theres some shorties there this week and i dont like all of em either

I say No But i know ************all
I do know this though I wouldnt be banking my weekend around em winning within the margin ..... Big Fraze might go silly and kick another truckload

wasn't sure, i think they should win but their record up their isn't good and i refuse to take @ $1.20 , if you think it will be a lot closer, then i think $2.40 is a fairly good price. I would take them in a few multi's , only for a couple of $$$

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-02 16:15 ]

Ive still got a lot of weighing up to do before I send the bookies runnin for cover .But i reckon ill probably take that as well to Beef up 1 or 2 of my short priced multis

Too many shorties in the afl, i'll have a closer look by friday , but i think most of the value will be in the nrl.

Before we go any further Id like to stick my neck out and say that Ill be looking seriously at Melb D's this weekend in some shape or form .And I dont think Geelong is such a good thing either at the price

There record in the west isnt too bad with 3 wins in 7 games. 2/4 at subiaco,[latest loss by 5 pts] and 1/3 at w.a.c.a, so there a chance. Yeah geelong has won only 3 of the last 9 games, by 1 pt,21pts and 7 pts and there giving 20.5 start.

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-02 16:44 ]

Guys, I know nothing about AFL (ok I know a bit). I'll have a few questions every now and then.

What is a large margin to win by? I cap wins and losses since they can throw averages out of whack.



[ This Message was edited by: Mr J on 2004-06-03 02:22 ]

Mr J,

I'm not sure if this is 100% accurate, but I think it's pretty good as a guide. Take the margins in Union/League and multiply them by about 2 1/2. In other words, I think a 12 pt margin in NRL is sort of equivalent to a 30 pt margin in AFL. Someone else might have a different opinion though.

I decided to let it stand, otherwise I wouldn't have a good chance at accurately predicting large spreads.

Over a few rounds of testing my system has gone 17-6 (this is the exact same system I've just tested for NRL and I used for Super 12s). Obviously not a statistically significant number, but the systems overall record of 108-35 is!!!

I'd really like to know exactly what facts and figures you use in your systems. Sounds very impressive.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-03 06:47 ]

I think you'd be amazed at how simple it is. Just 5 factors inc. home advantage, road performance, travel etc.

The system is the same for NRL, AFL and Super 12s. I just keep it simple, just factoring in the most influencial factors.

Originally I was going to use a highly detailed version of my Super 12 system but I found that too many factors drowned out the influence of the more important factors. Basically, the simple version worked better.

I'm going to try it at Super League, I'll just need the lines for previous games this season. I'm not going to test the NRL any further (38-13), I'm convinced it is profitable there. I'll test it more on the AFL (17-6) until I get a statistically significant result.

Don't have any idea of what my advantage is though. I'd guess that it as much as 15-20% for Super 12s, 10%+ for NRL and AFL.

St.Kilda have as much chance of winning by over 40 points as they do by under.
They will certainly win.
And it won't be a close game.
My advice.No go @ 1 to 39.5.
Geelong are specials and Fremantle?,where's Docker Dessie when you need him?
Melbourne? not for me against Freo.

Cheers Mo.


_________________
You can only win if the odds are in your favour!

[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-06-03 12:16 ]

Contemplating taking Richmond (+10.5) & Melbourne (+19.5)
What do ya think fellas?

paddy
Richmond probably need closer to about 4 goals +24.5
and melbourne on the road second week running
couldn't say,freo are pretty good at home but then theyve been away too
collingwood -20.5 is good as is lions -28.5

second half looks ok

Haven't tested my system much on AFL (it's 23-9 so far) but I'll have a good anyway.

West Coast +20.5
Hawthorn +45.5
Carlton +41.5
Port +26.5
Bulldogs +20.5
Fremantle -19.5
Swans +28.5.

I acutally have the Bulldogs and Sydney winning outright.

My system says the Kangaroos-Richmond line is spot on. Also says the fremantle & carlton are close but there's still value.

Let's see how it does...

Gday all...Have been spending time watching the goings on in the NRL and following my beloved Lakers team make the NBA finals (followed them since the days of- Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul Jabbar)!

Moee, reckon it will be a close one on Sunday (definitely under 35 pts)...showers expected this weekend and both teams play it right to the end...as already pointed out the Demons dont travel too badly out this way...but the thing that has impressed me with the Dockers has been the solidness at the back and if they can keep the Demons (Neitz) at bay and Longmuir and co fire then it will be a fast finishing Dockers win...but they will need to get out of the blocks a hell of a lot better than they did against the Bombers last week!!!

Hey Paddy.
Suggest you suss out Goldmembers banned list and see if Richmond are on it.

Cheers Mo.

What did eveyone think of SKYCAM on last fridays ch 9 game, different hey! I heard that they are going to have PLAYER CAM on wakelin in tonights game, and are looking at trialing in the near future GOAL CAM

It was a joke Joyce.(player cam).


Cheers Mo.

Then eddie is a bigger ********ER than i thought he was