Fial tips for me.

Essendon 10
Kangaroos 19
St.Kilda 25
Adelaide 24
Brisbane 33
Geelong 24
Port Power 36
Melbourne 25


[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-07-16 11:03 ]

WEST COAST v ESSENDON

W/coast have won 1 of their last 8 against essendon, but have won 3 of their last 4 at subiaco against them.

last 4 H2H:
R15 2002 W/COAST 90-63 @ SUBIACO
E/F 2002 ESSENDON 111-78 @ TELSTRA DOME
R10 2003 ESSENDON 128-106 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 3 2004 ESSENDON 137-106 @ TELSTRA DOME


CARLTON v KANGAROOS

Carlton have won 3 of their last 9 against the kangaroos and won the last time they met at optus oval,12-9-99 in R11 2000.

last 4 H2H:
R20 2002 KANGAROOS 114-95 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 5 2003 CARLTON 122-113 @ TELSTRA DOME
R22 2003 KANGAROOS 187-63 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 3 2004 KANGAROOS 111-106 @ M.C.G

RICHMOND v ST KILDA

Richmond have won only 1 of their last 4 against st kilda but had won the previous 3 before that. The last 6 polayed at telstra dome have resulted in 3 wins each.

last 4 H2H:
R 9 2002 ST KILDA 72-63 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 4 2003 RICHMOND 107-81 @ TELSTRA DOME
R19 2003 ST KILDA 130-50 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 3 2004 ST KILDA 114-69 @ TELSTRA DOME

COLLINGWOOD v BRIS LIONS

Collingwood have won only 2/13 against the lions and 1/5 at the m.c.g against them.

last 4 H2H:
R19 2003 BRIS LIONS 101-62 @ M.C.G
Q/F 2003 COLLINGWOOD 66-51 @ M.C.G
G/F 2003 BRIS LIONS 134-84 @ M.C.G
R 3 2004 BRIS LIONS 137-77 @ GABBA

ADELAIDE v FREMANTLE

The crows have won 9/14 against the dockers and have won all 7 played at aami stadium.

last 4 H2H:
R22 2002 ADELAIDE 120-80 @ SUBIACO
R 1 2003 ADELAIDE 145-89 @ AAMI STADIUM
R16 2003 FREMANTLE 91-90 @ SUBIACO
R 3 2004 FREMANTLE 73-64 @ SUBIACO

GEELONG v SWANS

Geelong have won 4 of their last 6 against the swans,winning the last time they met at skilled stadium 124-120 in R22 2000, but the swans had 2 easy wins previous to that.

last 4 H2H:
R13 2001 GEELONG 84-65 @ S.C.G
R12 2002 GEELONG 101-99 @ S.C.G
R 8 2003 SWANS 112-73 @ S.C.G
R 3 2004 SWANS 73-67 @ S.C.G

HAWTHORN v PORT ADELAIDE

THe hawks have won only 4/12 against port, winning 1/3 that have been played at m.c.g

last 4 H2H:
R10 2002 PORT 117-77 @ YORK PK
R 3 2003 PORT 128-71 @ AAMI STADIUM
R18 2003 PORT 84-80 @ M.C.G
R 3 2004 PORT 171-90 @ AAMI STADIUM

MELBOURNE v WESTERN BULLDOGS

Melb have won 5 of their last 6 against the w/bulldogs and 3/5 played at telstra dome.

last 4 H2H:
R20 2002 MELBOURNE 107-95 @ M.C.G
R 3 2003 MELBOURNE 127-95 @ TELSTRA DOME
R18 2003 W/BULLDOGS 101-80 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 3 2004 MELBOURNE 97-87 @ M.C.G




[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-07-14 16:02 ]

So,what are you saying.
That Essendon has only met the eagles about twice at Subiaco in the last 8 games or so.
That sounds strange.
I suppose most of those 8 must have been finals.

THATS RIGHT,
M.C.G R19 1999
TELSTRA R15 2000
TELSTRA R 6 2001
SUBIACO R21 2001
SUBIACO R15 2002
TELSTRA E/F 2002
TELSTRA R10 2003
TELSTRA R 3 2004

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-07-14 16:10 ]

Another example of the inequality of the AFL draw. Other than finals, the two teams should play each other Home, Away, Home, Away etc, but that doesn't seem to happen.

Guess how many of Collingwood's last twenty H&A games against West Coast and Fremantle have actually been played in Perth.... only FIVE!!! That's right. Collingwood has only had to travel to Perth 5 times in the last 8 seasons whereas most other teams have to do it at least once a year, sometimes twice. Talk about an unfair advantage!


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-15 10:29 ]

Well here's what I'm taking:

WC -12.5 (WC easily here)
Rich +25.5 (much closer)
Coll +21.5 (spread should be around 10)
Ad -17.5 (have them winning by 26)
Syd +16.5 (geel only slight faves)
Haw +34.5 (I have this MUCH closer)

My system also leans towards Kang -16.5 and WB +36.5, although they're not quite at the price.

Mr J
are collingwood good enough to get within 4 goals of the lions .I doubt it
cheers

Looks like there'll be 5 bets for the Home Dog system this week, 2 in the AFL and maybe 3 in the NRL. I'm not all that confident about them, but who knows.

hows it going sportz
are you going to the afl gf to see lions get no .4
do you rate any or all of the following
roosters -9.5 v saints
canterbury dogs -7.5 v sharks
crows -17.5 v freo
kangas -16.5 v blues
cheers

Hi, I think I'll be more than happy to watch it on telly.... if they get there. I'm not as confident of the Lions chances as some other people.

Personally, I prefer to back teams playing at home and I also prefer to back teams receiving a start rather than giving it. Having said that, I do think you could be pretty close to the mark with those tips. For what it's worth, my ratings predict Roosters by 12, Bulldogs by 10, Crows by 20 and Kangaroos by 18.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-15 14:21 ]

Looking at your selections Mr J,you'll be stepping on a few peoples toes getting your bets on.
You seem to have come up with some huge overs there.
And if your system is making 10% or so on turnover,I'm sure you could increase that by adding one more rule.
By the way,Onthepunt AFL tips are making a profit of 8% on turnover this year.

Cheers - Mo.

Moe, I actually like going against the general opinion. Means prices will move in my favour.

BTW, my 10%POT is only using sportstab lines, at an average price of 1.90.

If I just used pinnacle (avg price of 1.95) my POT would be 12.2%.

OTP also only records bets at the very best lines the market has to offer, where as my record is against widely available lines. I hope you recognize the difference.

W/COAST by 12
KANGAROOS by 20
ST KILDA by 20
BR LIONS by 39
ADELAIDE by 40
SWANS by 17
PT ADEL by 39
MELB by 21

is subiaco the graveyard for melbourne teams or what.essendon have drifted way out in betting.it makes you not want to touch that game,specially in the first leg of any multi.I think moee"s the only one who'd take the 2.60 on offer
cheers

I am more confident of the swans winning than essendon.

Essendon - no Hird , no win !!!!

At the local TAB in Victoria is a bookmaking firm called Sportstab.Their take out margin is a minimum of 8%.
If you are betting with them then you are not serious in your professionalism.
Not knocking the group,but you Mr J.
Unless you are just using their figures as a basis for coming up with a system.

2 things.

Rabbitz.The other only way you can make money gambling,is by having a different opinion than someone else.
For example,look at Mr J's AFL tips over the season.Many appear just plain wrong.But his system bank is climbing by 10%.
If everybody used the same data in the same way,we'd come up with the same result.
I'm using the intangible thing called the vibe.Go Bombers.

Goldmember.Give me one reason why the Swans can not only beat Geelong but win fairly comfortably it seems.
Here is 3 reasons you seem to have erred.
Home game for the Cats.Cats above Sydney on the ladder.Top 4 position on the line.

"Unless you are just using their figures as a basis for coming up with a system."

They were the only place I was able to get previous lines.


There's no way in hell I'd bet with them. I only bet online, mainly at offshore bookies.

Most of my betting (for NRL/AFL) is at pinnacle, canbet, sia, cris and olympic.

"look at Mr J's AFL tips over the season.Many appear just plain wrong."

I love that!! That'd be a result of me just going by numbers, and not factoring in injuries, h2h etc.

Obviously there are different approaches one can use to beat sports. Each has advantages and disadvantages.

Just took a gamble and bet Kangaroos -15.5 at 2.04 against some major action (ie several max bets within the space of a few minutes).
My system says play it so I did, how's that for dicipline.

Should have listened to the Sharps there Mr J.
Regardless of that,it's nice to see someone else put their judgement on the line.

Did anything important happen around an hour before the kangaroos game?

Well deja-vu for me again this weekend, NRL performing strong so far (4-1) while afl is letting me down (1-4, will probally be 2-5).

Well 2-5 in AFL for me this weekend.