STGEORGE ILLAWARRA v STORM

The saints have 3 wins + 1 draw from 11 against the storm and haven't beaten them since R18 2000,at wollongong the saints have 1 win +1 draw from 4 against the storm.At home this year the saints have won 4/8, winning 2/5 at wollongong, while the storm have won 2/8 on the road.

last 4 H2H:
R 6 2002 STORM 12- 4 @ OLYMPIC PK
R14 2002 DRAW 30-30 @ WOLLONGONG
R24 2003 STORM 22-14 @ WOLLONGONG
R 3 2004 STORM 34- 6 @ OLYMPIC PK

KNIGHTS v RAIDERS

From their last 8 clashes both teams have won 4 each, with the knights winning 6/9 at newcastle against the raiders, with the raiders last win there in r14 1996, the last 5 games have gone with the home side. At home this year the knights have won 3/9 while the raiders have won 3/11 away.

last 4 H2H:
R 4 2002 KNIGHTS 52- 6 @ NEWCASTLE
R18 2002 RAIDERS 30-24 @ BRUCE STADIUM
R24 2003 RAIDERS 24-16 @ BRUCE STADIUM
R 7 2004 RAIDERS 19-18 @ BRUCE STADIUM

WARRIORS v BRONCOS

The warriors have won 5/16 against the broncos, winning 3/7 at ericsson[ winning the last 3 played at ericsson], at home this year the warriors have won 4/9 while the broncos have won 8/9 away.

last 4 H2H:
R23 2002 WARRIORS 18- 4 @ ERICSSON
R 5 2003 WARRIORS 32-12 @ ANZ STADIUM
R24 2003 WARRIORS 22-14 @ ERICSSON
R 1 2004 BRONCOS 28-20 @ SUNCORP

PANTHERS v MANLY

The panthers won their last clash at penrith against manly , but had lost their previous 2 there to the nthn eagles,at home this year the panthers have won 6/8 while manly have won 2/7 away.

last 4 H2H:
R26 2002 PANTHERS 68-28 @ BROOKVALE
R 8 2003 PANTHERS 30-29 @ PENRITH
R25 2003 PANTHERS 52-26 @ BROOKVALE
R13 2004 MANLY 20-12 @ BROOKVALE

WEST TIGERS v SOUTHS

The w/tigers have won only 1/5 against souths, losing both games played at leichardtagainst them. The w/tigers have won won 4/7 on their home grounds this year,winning 3/3 at leichardt, while souths have 1 win + 1 draw from 10 away.

last 4 H2H:
R21 2002 W/TIGERS 50- 4 @ S.F.S
R 5 2003 SOUTHS 32-22 @ S.F.S
R22 2003 SOUTHS 18-16 @ LEICHARDT
R 2 2004 SOUTHS 17-16 @ S.F.S

BULLDOGS v COWBOYS

The bulldogs have won 12/14 against the cowboys, winning 4/6 at home against them,including 2/2 at the showgrounds.The bulldogs have won 7/7 at home this year, while the cowboys have 5 wins + 1 draw from 9 away games.

last 4 H2H:
R24 2001 BULLDOGS 30-22 @ SHOWGROUNDS
R21 2002 BULLDOGS 34-26 @ DAIRY FARMERS
R20 2003 BULLDOGS 42-22 @ SHOWGROUNDS
R16 2004 BULLDOGS 32-18 @ DAIRY FARMERS

ROOSTERS v SHARKS

The roosters have won 10 of their last 13 against the sharks, incuding the last 5 straight and winning 5 of the last 7 played at the S.F.S. The roosters have won 9/10 at the S.F.S this year , while the sharks have won 5/10 away games.

last 4 H2H:
FNL 2002 ROOSTERS 32-20 @ S.F.S
R 4 2003 ROOSTERS 40-20 @ TOYOTA PK
R22 2003 ROOSTERS 36-28 @ S.F.S
R10 2004 ROOSTERS 38-18 @ TOYOTA PK

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-04 16:09 ]

My Ratings:

St Geo/Ill by 4
Newcastle by 8
Brisbane by 4
Penrith by 14
W.Tigers by 8
Bulldogs by 12
Syd Roosters by 16

So far $82,000 has come for the Dragons both with the -3.5 start (-4.5 in some books), and straight up at SportsTAB.

Jake, heard this morning that on sportstab yesterday that there was $90,000 on the dragons H2H and HCP, while $700 went on the storm, mainly because the rumour is SCOTT HILL wont play.

Hi Goldmember,

Something's going on... a few bookies have just suspended betting on the Dragons vs Storm came. Maybe Slater or Orford are injured? See if I can find out. Didn't think Scott Hill could move that much money!

OK, looks like it's just Scott Hill. Someone must have a direct line to the team doctor.

[ This Message was edited by: jakelee on 2004-08-05 09:51 ]

I think that the storms ordinary form away from home plus hill going to be out would move that much money,bookies would normally suspend prices for a short time when that happens.Their away form this year is well below what it should be, losing to the warriors, souths, w/tigers and struggled to beat the eels, so stgeorge would be a lot harder to beat than them. If the storm had good form away from home i would say they were good things but there average so i think the dragons should win by 8-10 pts

This weeks ratings:

ST GEORGE 121
STORM 118

KNIGHTS 125
RAIDERS 116

PANTHERS 123
MANLY 117

BRONCOS 125
WARRIORS 117

W/TIGERS 116
SOUTHS 115

BULLDOGS 131
COWBOYS 124

ROOSTERS 125
SHARKS 118

not as much value as last week.

Last week results top rated teams,

1. bulldogs won $1.45
2. roosters won $1.53
3. broncos won $1.47
4. cowboys won $2.60
5. knights won $1.60
6. raiders lost ---
7. w/tigers won $2.15

If Scott Hill is out, my rating is now St Geo/Ill by 8 points

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-05 10:18 ]

ST GEORGE by 8
BRONCOS by 8
KNIGHTS by 14
PANTHERS by 16
W/TIGERS by 4
BULLDOGS by 16
ROOSTERS by 13

At sport odds they backed the saints -4.5 into $1.85 and changed the start to -5.5 and they have been backed in again @ $1.85

St George have a poor record against the Storm, so I wouldn't say they are any certainties. Melbourne haven't played well away from home this year however.

Saints are unpredictable, but should lift against the better sides at home nearing the semis, the roosters were flat against the eels and souths [in wet] but lifted for the saints and storm, their not one of my sides but i'm going to bck them tomorrow if their still around $1.60-$1.55, but i wont take under that. If i followed my price ratings last week i would have had 7/7 but left manly out, this week i think there are 5 favs under the odds, 1 even and 1 over the odds[knights the best value H2H]so i will betting exotics mostly.

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-05 19:29 ]

PLAYERS OUT OF TEAMS LISTED

STORM -S.HILL

BRONCOS -S.MINTO
-S.WEBKE

SHARKS -B.KIMMORELY [very unlikely]

Well I went against the world and bet on Melbourne +6.5. IMO most other people have made bets based on injury and no other data.

Good Bet Mr J. St.George are as reliable as throwing a stick to a blind dog,he might hear it and run its general direction or he might ignore it altogether,having said that,both teams when their on, play quite well ,its not a game for the faint hearted so i havent gone near it
cheers

Well there were reasons why I might've just stayed away:

1. Business end of season, Dragons should perform for this one.

2. Injury, my model doesn't factor in injuries so how much of a difference has it made?

3. Heavy action, coming in on the Dragons. Was it sharp (pro bettor) money or just public?

4. Melbourne have only won 2/8 away from home.

Reasons for betting:

1. Business end of season, Melbourne will play up.

2. Injury. When this info comes out, people often over value the importance. Melbourne are a good club so should have enough depth to allow the injury not to have a huge impact.

3. Heavy action. Other lines don't move nearly so heavily, unless there is an injury. In fact the only one I can clearly remember is Easts vs Knights when knights had countless players out. The advantage off one single injury can not warrant such a large bet as % of BR. My conclusion is that it's not sharp money.

4. Dragons have won just 4/8 at home, and just 1/4 vs a more important factor I'd prefer not to state.

Melbourne also fits a very important trend.

I agree that on their day both teams are capable of walking over pretty much any other team.

I weighed up the pros and cons and Melbourne came out on top.

My system picked melbourne, I just wanted to to more work on this one and make sure I was comfortable with it.

Hi there Mr.J
U seem to have a system that goes against public opinion most times and that no doubt impresses me. How long have u been sports betting mate? What is your thoughts on the three sunday games? I have all favourites winning...Bulldogs, Roosters and West Sydney and no doubt that kind of scares me some.

I'm actually more confident going against public opinion than agreeing with it. Bookies will always shade public opinion, so naturally value is more likely to be on the other side :wink:

Haven't done saturday/sunday games yet.

Been sportsbetting around a year now, but only started handicapping (making my own picks) a few months ago in Super 12s.

MR J, normally i would have stayed out of fridays game,[cant trust stgeorge]but this year melb have been dreadful on the road, only playing a couple of good halfs and their defence has been fragile for a while and while i agree most of the time 1 injury wouldnt move that much money, it depends if its a key player or not, there has been a few games this year when theres been a few out injured and teams backed heavily, penrith v melb,penrith v bulldogs plus others ,the smarties would have backed the dragons early before he was officially ruled out and the start [+3.5]is only 1 try any,thats nothing, i know after that every body jumps on the bandwagon and what started out value wouldnt end up being value,i missed the early price so instead of taking unders i went a saints try, first scoring play @ $2.15, even better value.

cheers

Knights by 7
Broncos by 6
Panthers by 12
Tigers by 2
Bulldogs by 20
Roosters by 24

Chuck

I dont agree (about melb being terrible on the road). They might have only won 2/8 on the road, but only one game was lost by more than 8, i.e. they've been competitive.

The dragons have been appauling at home winning just 4/8, and just 1/4 against interstate teams.

Alot of people won big last night, but not for the right reasons. I doubt it was the injury that led to such a comfortable victory.

Today have the panthers -12.5 and the raiders at +6.5.

Panthers are my warriors. Inconsistent and I don't think my system picks them well. It is the business end of the season, so they should be looking for some form (along with the eagles not being motivated). I see penrith as very inconsistent, and that penrith might take this one easy, so a close game wouldn't surprise me.

Have been good at picking the raiders and I don't rate newcastle so am more comfortable with that one. Both sides will want to pick up this game to step closer to securing a finals spot. Should be a decent game.

Warriors (+9.5) another winner for the Homedog system. Now for the ultimate test tomorrow..... Richmond.

Ohhh, forgot one. The Wallabies... another homedog winner! :smile:

I was only the wallabies as well, but on the outight (2.35). Helped cushioned the 2-4 (thanks to my raiders +5.5 and swans miserable effort).

I disagree also, that being away from home plus such an important player out that the people won for the those exact reasons, plus i wouldnt say penrith are very inconsistant, they have had a lot of injuries and key players out, they are hopeless without their half back CRAIG GOWER but when he's there they are a totally different team, a fact you yourself said that your model doesnt take into account.

cheers

No it doesn't take injuries into account. I'm going to see if I can somehow factor them in for next season. I might just end up having a list for different classes of players (important players) and giving a team penalty if the player is out (with the penalty amount depending on what class of player).

Go the Bulldogs!!