My straight from the computer selections.

Port Adelaide 21 Collingwood
Melbourne 21 Carlton
Geelong 12 Adelaide
Sydney 6 Essendon
Kangaroos 29 Western Bulldogs
Brisbane Lions 10 St.Kilda
Hawthorn 2 Richmond
Fremantle 6 West Coast

Interesting round coming up in the footy.
Like Sydney and Brisbane at this stage.
I know all of you guys are rating the saints but don't get sucked in by the juicy odds. The champs will turn up the heat and I just can't see Fraser Gehrig kicking a bag on Mal Michael. I remember last year everyone thought the Pies would clean up the lions in the centenary round and the champs simply had a 10 goal first term.
Can't see my boys having the leg speed to go with the Swans but a lot will hinge on Barry Hall surviving the tribunal.
Collingwood might be a good bet if you can get a bit of a start, say 12-15 points.I still have huge ? marks over Port and don't be swayed because they pumped the Dogs last week, they are playing like a VFL team at the moment.

Collingwood are playing at their peak.What your seeing is the best they can do.
I watched the Port,Essendon game but it just turned out that Port weren't good enough on the night.I won't be using that as a basis for my selection,and am coming up with the decision that Port Power by over 40 points.

9 goals or so in the first quarter last week for Essendon ain't gunna happen against the tightarse Sydney defense.Another big win for the Swans.

Everybody seems to think the Lions are much better than what they are showing at the moment.Well they might have missed the boat!.The finals are almost here and if you ain't got your act together by now I believe it's too late.They didn't think the Saints could beat them last time,and they are making the same mistake again.Form team to beat an out of form team.
Go Sainters.

I wonder how many points St Kilda will rack up for out of bounds on the full,its funny how significant that umpires mistake was. I think st kilda will probably win but like you mo my guts are a churnin with the vibe
cheers

Almost front page headline news that point was.
Supposing the point by Aussie Jones occurred within the first 2 minutes of the game.Would we have given it even the slightest thought.
Games are full of umpiring mistakes.About 15% is an acceptable error rate it seems.
Kangaroos beat Sydney because of two glaring wrong decisions.But the Roos were regarded as heroes.
Sainters you marvellous team.What you done in the last quarter last week is what needs to be done for the rest of the season.
I'd like to see that!

Moeee
Keep the kaomagna on hand sunday,just in case

COLLINGWOOD v PORT ADELAIDE

Collingwood have won 4/11 against port adel,but have won 2/3 at the m.c.g against them.The pies have won 3/9 at the m.c.g this year while port have won 5/9 interstate,including 1/2 at the m.c.g

last 4 H2H:
QFL 2002 COLLINGWOOD 108-95 @ AAMI STADIUM
R10 2003 PORT ADEL 98-73 @ AAMI STADIUM
PFL 2003 COLLINGWOOD 112-68 @ M.C.G
R 6 2004 PORT ADEL 101-84 @ AAMI STADIUM

CARLTON v MELBOURNE

Carlton have won 3 of their last 12 against the demons,losing their last 5 straight.Carlton have won 3/6 at optus this year while melb have won 3/8 away from the m.c.g

last 4 H2H:
R15 2001 MELB 117-111 @ OPTUS OVAL
R15 2002 MELB 139- 95 @ TELSTRA DOME
R14 2003 MELB 97-90 @ OPTUS OVAL
R 6 2004 MELB 160- 55 @ M.C.G

ADELAIDE v GEELONG
The crows have won 4 of their last 5 against the cats and have won 9/10 at aami stadium against them.Adel have won 5/10 at home this year while geelong has lost all 3 interstate games this year.

R 2 2002 ADEL 110-79 @ AAMI STADIUM
R17 2002 ADEL 93-90 @ SKILLED STADIUM
R10 2003 ADEL 76-59 @ SKILLED STADIUM
R 6 2004 GEELONG 101-58 @ SKILLED STADIUM

WESTERN BULLDOGS v KANGAROOS

W/bulldogs have won 2/5 at telstra dome against the kangaroos,this year at the dome the w/bulldogs are 0/7 while the kangaroos are 3/7.

last 4 H2H:
R 2 2002 KANGAROOS 110- 97 @ TELSTRA DOME
R17 2002 W/BULLDOGS 139-105 @ TELSTRA DOME
R10 2003 KANGAROOS 156-145 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 6 2004 W/BULLDOGS 120-119 @ TELSTRA DOME


SWANS v ESSENDON

The swans have won only 1 of their last 10 against the bombers,with both sides having 1 win each from the 2 games played at stadium australia.At home this year the swans have won 8/11 [7/9 s.c.g] [1/2 stadium aust, Lost by 12 Melb,Won by 6 Collingwood 6]while the bombers have won 1/3 interstate[adel]

last4 H2H:
R19 2001 ESSENDON 79-77 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 9 2002 ESSENDON 85-83 @ STADIUM AUST
R11 2003 SWANS 133-79 @ STADIUM AUST
R 6 2004 ESSENDON 108-98 @ M.C.G

BRIS LIONS v ST KILDA

The lions have won 9/13 against the saints and all 6 played at the gabba.The lions have won 9/10 at the gabba this year while the saints have won 3/8 away from telstra dome,with those 3 wins being from 5 games played interstate.

last 4 H2H:
R14 2001 BRIS LIONS 119-62 @ GABBA
R11 2002 BRIS LIONS 113-52 @ GABBA
R11 2003 ST KILDA 90-85 @ T/DOME
R 6 2004 ST KILDA 92-91 @ T/DOME

HAWTHORN v RICHMOND

The last 8 games have resulted in 4 wins each,with hawthorn winning 4 of the last 7 at the m.c.g.This year at the m.c.g the hawks are 1/10 and the tigers 2/8.

last 4 H2H:
R20 2002 RICHMOND 107-93 @ M.C.G
R 5 2003 RICHMOND 115-95 @ M.C.G
R22 2003 HAWTHORN 78-74 @ M.C.G
R 6 2004 RICHMOND 84-83 @ T/DOME

FREMANTLE v WEST COAST

Fremantle have won only 5/19 against w/coast,but have won 3 of the last 4.The dockers have won 6/11 at subiaco this year while the w/coast have won 8/10 there.

last 4 H2H:
R16 2002 FREMANTLE 100-70 @ SUBIACO
R 5 2003 W/COAST 108-73 @ SUBIACO
R22 2003 FREMANTLE 96-82 @ SUBIACO
R 6 2004 FREMANTLE 83-73 @ SUBIACO

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-17 21:25 ]

Kangaroos and westcoast look good for a double of sorts
Probably covering their respective starts,you would think.I WILL NOT TOUCH BRISBANE v SAINTS,even though Brisbane should win in a hand canter(yes you can quote me endlessly after the game Moee)
P.S. We have had water falling from the sky overnight,very strange phenomena

The sort of stats that really instill a heck of a lot of confidence in a punter!

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-18 09:56 ]

I have heard that Port Power has a shocking record at the MCG as well.Well if that's true it ain't gonna stop me from backing them.After all,it is still a home and away game,not a final.

They're 5 from 18 there Mo. (5 from 16 in H&A games). A lot of those losses were early on though, when they didn't have as strong a team as they do now.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-18 10:17 ]

Thanks for that statistic.
Now the other concern is if Tredrea comes up.
Actually,I haven't had much luck in Friday night footy.Might have talked myself into staying out of this game.

Gday Mo, Just for the record regarding the Pies, I don't think they are certainties. I just think that their man on man game upsets Port and I don't really rate the Power. I think they play great footy when they can get plenty of uncontested footy and are probly the most highly skilled team in the comp, but big games arent played like that. Just look who wins flags.
They may well thrash the pies this week but they can't win the flag for mine.
Secondly, with regargs to the Brownlow betting I was also talking in jest when I mentioned he will go in the book this week, but my msg may not have read that way.
Thirdly, i've read some of ur comments regarding tote punting and maybe ur right when you say, they have a lot of ******** on their minds etc etc and maybe I just have an iron heart, but sorry buddy, those ********ers who do that drive me barmy.
Finally, I've read some of your other excerpts about ur own punting and it can be a dark well when your stuck in a tote, betting race to race to race. I've certainly done that at times in the past.
Some basic suggestions to improve that are don't read the formguide daily or listen/watch the racing channel.That helps minimise your interest and you can break that cycle.
Just remember any habit takes 30 days to make or break!!
I hope this msg hasn't overstepped the boundary with you or upset you. Your msg's are funny and you seem like a good bloke but finally don't forget; the lions will create some carnage this week on your sainters

PORT ADELAIDE by 14
CARLTON by 6
GEELONG by 22
ESSENDON by 14
KANGAROOS by 8
BRIS LIONS by 30
RICHMOND by 30
WEST COAST by 21

Not feeling well this week Goldmember?

Some say 21 days should do it.
The urge usually grabs me when the sun goes down.Wifes home,kids are back from school.Nothing on TV.

Beautiful tipping there Mug Punta.Wrong as usual but beautiful nevertheless.And they actually aren't my Sainters really.It's just that the only way of getting my Bank Balance back to black is by the Saints taking out the big one.
Don't have a team that I barrack for unless it's got my dollars riding on it.

Got a feeling that theres going to be an upset this week,i was confident that the swans would win last week,but as much as it hurts, OUCH! i've tipped essendon.

Now where did I put that banned list?

Moeee, banned from backing ,not from tipping !

My Ratings:

Port Adel by 5
Melbourne by 21
Geelong by 6
Kangaroos by 29
Sydney by 6
Brisbane by 13
Hawthorn by 2
West Coast by 1

Geez Mo, I just noticed how damn close your ratings are to mine! Spooky.

Port by 26
Melbourne by 68
Adelaide by 18
Roos by 34
Essendon by 49
Lions by 42
Hawks by 12
W/Coast by 3

Chuck

Thinking the same thing as I was going through yours Sportznut.This is about the 3rd time I've noticed this.
So how come I keep losing and you keep winning?
Could it be I'm a little more honest in disclosing my punting prowess?

As I keep telling you, a large part of my betting this year involves my system selections and they have NOTHING at all to do with my ratings. I know you think my system can't possibly work, but it HAS been going great guns all year. I guess it will fail dismally at some point, but it hasn't happened yet. Another 3 from 4 last week, including Hawthorn in the AFL.

Hi all, 1st time poster:)

I am considering the following multi...

1.Collingwood v Port Adelaide
Line - Port Adelaide -14.5 @ 1.90

2.Western Bulldogs v Kangaroos
Line - Kangaroos -29.5 @ 1.90

3.Adelaide v Geelong
Line - Geelong -13.5 @ 1.90

4.Brisbane v St Kilda
Line - Brisbane -16.5 @ 1.90

5.Carlton v Melbourne
Line - Melbourne -17.5 @ 1.90

6.Hawthorn v Richmond
Line - Hawthorn -4.5 @ 1.90

Multibet Odds: @ 47.05

What do ya reckon?

Hi Black Panther, afraid to say it to you on your first post, but, in the words of Ivan Drago to Apollo Creed in Rocky 4:" You will lose".
Good luck to you for having a crack but to lob a 6 leg multi, all of which are at the line would be a big achievement!!

Just curious what other punters thibk about what's happened with the Bulldogs this week?
I know they are playing crap footy, but they actually have 5or 6 players who are top players. I just wonder if maybe the appointment of Rocket this week may lift them out of their stupor.You reckon they would be wanting to impress the new coach, even, if he's not coaching yet.
Also, I think that maybe that loss to the Saints last week may knock the stuffing out of The Roos.They through everything at the saints last week and now they know they are simply not good enough.
Im not suggesting the Doggies will win, but, with some agencies giving a 7 goal start, maybe there is some value there. Comments appreciated

BULLDOGS?
BULL********
Need say no more.

Just wondering Sportznut,what purpose do your AFL ratings serve in your punting?

Thanks mo. Think I probly needed that. Must remember my first rule, don't bet on bad teams.

Blackpantha
Welcome
I reckon all those bets look good except
Brisbane -16.5 and Hawks -4.5
Dont underestimate Richmond in the battle of the giants.Also as much as most of the country is hoping for a brisbane win(except moee)I cant give St Kilda 16.5 start.This game has been billed as a cracker for months and i'm not convinced about lions even though i am a die hard supporter.So my advice leave that one out and take St George to beat newcastle in NRL with start instead
Cheers

Mo, I do ratings on every game, but I mainly use them as a point of comparison with the bookies. I do them early in the week before the bookies' starts come out. Then I compare my margins with what they put up, and that helps me decide if a team is a good bet or not. Two weeks ago, my ratings suggested Brisbane by 15 and my gut feeling was that West Coast could even win, so the +39.5 for the Eagles was a great bet. There's nothing that attractive this week unfortunately. I think I will probably just have small bets on the two system selections and also St Kilda (+16.5) because my gut feeling is that they're going to give Brisbane a hard time. It's a tough round this week. Most games could go either way. Melbourne and the Kangaroos should really win their games though, so I might also think about having a double or something with those two.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-19 19:27 ]

If the Eagles are so much better than the Dockers,how come the Dockers been in the 8 for so long and the Eagles ain't?
Someone suggested that the Dockers are gunna have sore legs from running around in the mud last week.
Well all you guys who subscribe to that had better get set on the Saints and probably Adelaide and Richmond.
What say we penalize the mudrunners 6 points each?
I'll buy that.
Rabbitz.If you analyze the Derbies,I'm confident that the Home team wins most of them.Freo for me with the start to be safe.

KANGAROOS
BULLDOGS
KANGAROOS
BULLDOGS
?

It must be the kangaroos turn this time, bad team v's inconsistant team

As a rule, I generally don't like to bet in these local derbies, but I reckon the 15.5 points starts for Freo isn't bad. West Coast totally dominated in the early days, but Fremantle has won 3 of the last 4 clashes between these two teams.

Hi all again three bets here
Port
Geelong
Melbourne
Good Luck

sportznutz
Thankyou for your tip about freo with the start,I thought wc could win easily but youve put doubt into me mind,so i will look elsewhere,mainly because you have a knack for being right,however freo are in a big hole and eagles are soaring with injured players returning,last time freo played at subiaco,collingwood beat them,i think the wc will win easily,50-60 points but i respect your uncanny knack for being right( apart from the netball )
cheers

Well it's collingwood +14.5 for me.

Tongue planted firmly in cheek???

I'm not saying the West Coast CAN'T win it easily. Just that I'm surprised at the 15.5 start for Freo. After all, they are still above West Coast on the ladder (for now at least), and they've won 3 of the last 4 derbies. I won't be betting on the game though so please don't let anything that I said put you off backing the Eagles.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-20 09:55 ]

Sportz
Showers are predicted for sunday arvo in perth,so i,ll probably hold off on that one.
Ladder positions mean nothing and with west coast back to near full strength,they'll win but I am trying to have a winning weekend so caution is the catchphrase for me
Cheers
P.S.For a good laugh read Rex Hunts column in herald sun