Won last start in 14 days.

1100 - 1800

C or TD beside horses name (track and distance winner.)

Cheers.
darky.

Whats happened to Ahjay,Darkie?

darkydog2002,

Have you been keeping records on this system?

I know you were looking at a few filters to attach to Ahjay's system. Have these gone out the window?


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Whats happened to Darkie?

QUE.Dont know.
I have only just started using AHJAYS again.
The filters I used did not make any measure of further success on the original except cut good winners out so I discarded them.
The filters were
1200 - 1600 M
GOOD EARLY SPEED /ON PACE HORSES as defined by the WIZARD.
The original method as defined by AHJAY in my opinion was one of the best methods ever presented on the forum.
Good luck with it to those like me who are using it.
My own way of staking the selections will be with the POWER OF 10 from BET SMARTER AND WIN.
Cheers.
darky.

Que.The only change I will make is to ONLY BET THOSE AT $4 OR BETTER.
The lower priced horses (no matter where they come from) are just not firing as their odds would indicate.
Cheers again .
darky.

AHJAY TODAY 25/9/04.

W.Farm
race 9 horse 1

Doomben
race 6 horse 4
race 7 horse 8.
Cheers and good luck.
darky.

RESULTS.(NSW TAB)

W.FARM
race 9 horse 1 won $1.90 /1.30

DOOMBEN.
race 6 horse 4 won $4.20 /1.90
race 7 horse 8 4th 16/1
Cheers.
darky.

Darky
Have been using a similar system with good results so far
Last start winner within 15 days
1000/1600 only
c or td winner
MUST be in first two in the betting
I have found that price restrictions eliminates too many winners.
I got 2 from 3 yesterday,but using your $4 filter you would have let them go.
I use personal judgement when they are odds on,and generally look on if shorter than $1.70,and thought Besame Mucho warranted the short quote so got on it.
cheers

Thanks PURPLEHEART 68.
It looks like a good one to me.
The first 2 in the betting ?/Does that relate to paper prices or TAB .
With regard to the MINIMUM/MAXIMUM price range in MY betting short prices under $4 showed a long term loss due I believe to the fact that the short priced commodities were NOT performing as their odds would indicate.
Drop us a line sometime.
Cheers and warmest regards.
darky.

This one in its original form I remember making $1600 profit for the year I used it ( using the 6 point divisor staking plan )

Wonder whether some of us would like to flash it up a bit.

Cheers.
darky

Why did you stop using it?

I got a bit bored using it.
Strange I know but true.

Cheers.
darky.

The system turned into a dog with a big run of outs.

The above was only a guess [I forgot the bracketed question mark], but probably not far wrong.

I wonder why the wheels fall off [most] systems after a certain while?
I had one going great guns for 2yrs and suddenly it just went from one run of outs to another ! Generally 3 mths. seems to be an average success rate. Perhaps it's the changing seasons?

Actually the run of outs was quite moderate whilst I used it though it may have fallen down later without my knowledge.

It certainly could be improved upon with sound logical principles common to most winners.
i.e Class horses in the top weight brackets.

Good jockeys and sound apprentices
Horses who lead or race on the pace ( especially at the distances specified by Ahjay)
Good win % ers
Top 4 Place %
Won over Distance and prevalent Track Conditions.

etc etc

Now there,s the bare bones of a system in itself.

Cheers.
darky

Yes, you could make up quite a few systems based around that and a lot of other criteria Darky, but my point was about why do initially successful systems mostly fall over? It's seems a bit of a mystery.

Why do they crash, Crash?
 

My theory, for what it's worth, is a mathematical phenomenon called Regression to the mean. I'm sure you are ahead of me here but it means that when we spot a profitable trend it is an anomaly and the flaw corrects itself, often sooner rather than later.
I only operate one system these days which is based on bookies prices as a starting point so it is not really a rigid set of rules.

Hi jacfin, like you I only bet one system now, but on the dogs. It's based on the chaos theory [which seems to suit the dogs]. It work most of the time, but not always.

jacfin,
The only way to go, I've been doing it for years.
I have the occasional rough trot but overall very consistent, and has been for a very long time.

I like to base my systems on sound principles common to all winners ( statistically based from Malcolm Knowles research.
That way they are less likely to fall over.

I have always felt that any sound system should be based around CLASS /WEIGHT /FIELD STRENGTH ratings( FS available through the WIZARD online.)

As a matter of simplicity and also "at a glance stuff" is the FREE ratings on this site.
If one based their OWN criteria on the top 4 asessed horses ( which are PROFESSIONALLY asessed then one could do very well indeed.

4 things come immediately to mind such as:

Do any lead or race on the pace?

Are they in the same class or dropping in class ?

Is a senior rider or good apprentice riding today.?

Is the available price(s) enough to make a profit whichever horse wins.
i.e 2 horses left out of the top 4 then MINIMUM price I need is $3.
1 horse left then I need MINIMUM $2.

Cheers.
darky.

Problem is, 'sound principals' usually lead to favorites and poor divs.

agree with crash (yikes!), ones got to find an angle to add value & to get around arriving at the same selection(s) as every other punter/tipster/ratings service etc

not an easy proposition but can be done

As Roger Dedman once said .

"Its not the amount of winners you get but the price you get about the winners".

Fortunately one can get both a good strike rate AND good dividends if you work at it and become a bit discerning with the prices one accepts.
And I dont mean putting an arbitrary upper limit on prices.A lower limit yes.
In my opinion the saying "little fish are sweet" coined by the system sellers has to be the stupidest thing I ever heard in 40 years of punting.
As any top line professional punter will tell you those larger dividends throughout the year can be the difference between a loss and a great year.

Cheers.
darky.

When it comes to racing, 'big fish are sweeter'!

Try the chaos theory:

Start time is about 5 ish, finish time is about 7 ish. Hard to get your head around this but bet 2nd and 3rd favorite on dogs or harness around the 5min to 2min mark [no big deal here, just go with what's in front of you: Chaos]. Amazing the amount of drift winners!

It's all fast and furious so bet small to try it out. The biggy is do not bet past 7.30pm [I don't know why, but profits rapidly disappear after 7.30pm] Mostly wonderful results if you stop before 7.30pm!

I commonly turn 10 units into 50 units on any given night [last night and the 2 nights before for starters].

The raw stats show that the markets top 3 favs win approx 65% of all races ,so why try & re-invent the wheel.

The job is already half done for us.
Even if one is half right, that is a 32.5% SR

Cheers

I'm sure your stats are correct Bagman but your using SP SR's and as anyone knows it's mostly impossible to back SP favorites as the prices change dramaticaly within the last minute to jump [and after the jump], especially on the dogs.

2nd and 3rd favorites 5 to 2 min from the jump often drift out and sometimes considerably [a $26 winner Wed. night], or one runner might drift in and the other out. So its not the 1st to 3rd. SP favorites we are particularly targeting. Considering there is only 9 dogs and you back 2 of them, winners are going to get up and often at very good prices. $5 to $10 win price range is average. A lot of winners often end up being in the first 3 SP's of course, but it's the good priced gravy that gets up that's important and a good meal doesn't need a lot of gravy.

Anyhow, it's just a fun method of betting I've used on and off for the last few years. Lots of action so I keep the bets small, but I'm amazed at how profitable it can often [not always] be. The Chaos system is a good description and it might not make a lot of common sense. However, the road to profit is littered with the dead bodies of common sense betting methods.

Thanks Crash.
Its great to hear others ideas.

My updated version of the AHJAY rules using the base criteria but with another added rule has :
CHELTENHAM ( Bet if dead track only)

RACE 6 HORSE 1 = OBGLO

Cheers.
darky.

Hi ya Darky,

Here's my picks for the AHJAY system

Cheltenham R6

7 Rocky Camp
10 Alpine Storm

Cheers,
Nigel

Well done chum.


I will try again.

Cheltenham R8 #1

Toowomba R5 #9

Thanks Nigel.

I will put my adapted version tips on each Saturday for awhile for anyone interested.

Cheers.
darky.

ROSEHILL

RACE 8 HORSE 1 = NEWTONS RINGS ( Must be dead track.)

Cheers.
darky.