I have amassed a huge amount of electronic greyhound form data ( 50,000 races, 23 tracks ) and am about to start testing out different handicapping systems.

So if you post me your handicapping system I will try it out, giving both of us a benifit.

Only sensible systems please not the old " if a trap losses 6 times the seventh will be a win" c**p.

Next start win and place performance after winning 2 out of last 3 starts but unplaced (4th or worse) at most recent start.
_________________


[ This Message was edited by: justinfront on 2004-09-29 08:09 ]

Cliftonarms - could your 50,000 race database be anything to do with globalgreyhounds.com by any chance?
I see that you are a new member there and that they provide info on 49000+ AU races.

[ This Message was edited by: gizzard on 2004-09-30 23:23 ]

Strike rate (win / place) hound placed (not win) last start higher grade (could be mixed grade), next start lower grade. Thanks.

Another quick one thanks.
True or false? Lowest strike (win) rate is the ‘squeeze’ box (5) over distances 530M or less?

Wonder whether you can work out how much each box loses on a $1 straight out basis.

Victorian Box Statistics can be found at the link below under "Winning Boxes"

http://www.grv.org.au/index1.html

Did 12 months research on Perth dogs. Box the first three prepost in west paper and the last priced dog for quad.

I found that these came in at the same rate as first four prepost and than the other combinations 1,2,3&5or 6or 7

Also found this to give an even return which was considerably better than the first four. The odd time that the last stood up made it difficult not to leave out of boxing it in for the win.

Something may be done on a data base with this as a start. leave out some races or add some filters. I don't know I was doing it longhand.

Regards Beton

Yo Cliftonarms.
What's the progress with the situation my good man?

Justinfront - Will look at yours and get back to you. Do you want the results private messaged or public? ( does this site enable private messages ? )

gizzard-No they are not from globalgreyhounds, their data is entered by entusiasts so may be prone to error.But I am a member because it is a useful referance site.

Moeee - I'll check systems only, yours is not a system. Trap win rates are posted on globalgreyhounds.com for loads of tracks.

puntersteve - It takes me 8hrs to check a system so there is no such thing as a "quick one" plus look at globalgreyhounds.com for the win rate of box 5 for the track you are interested in.

PS I use the forum http://www.bookiebusters.net/discus...html?1057170681 mostly so I may miss messages here

[ This Message was edited by: cliftonarms on 2004-10-03 03:25 ]

Yes Cliftonarms I can access the winning percentage of boxes at most tracks.
But still doesn't help me with my question because the starting price of the dog in those boxes is what I'm interested in.
I know box 1 wins the most,but it usually starts the shortest price.

I have one that I would like you to try out when you get the time:

1. Dog is in Box 1
2. Has been 1st in 2 of 3 last starts
3. Has been 1st or 2nd in last 2 starts
4. Pre-post <= 3.00 (if you don't have Pre-post info then try SP < 2.5)

Thanks

Justinfront

Tested your idea, the results are:
Races tested =9924, Criteria satisfied = 611, Winners =103, Place = 44

Thanks very much cliftonarms.
________________


[ This Message was edited by: justinfront on 2004-10-04 02:53 ]

puntersteve


For 5346 races meeting this criteria, 652 won and 816 wer placed.

gizzard

What is the differenc ebtween rule 2 and 3 of your system ?

Cheers cliftonarms.

This is all very well,but I can go to the Casino and play roulette and possibly pick 380 winners out of 800 selections and will definately come out losing.
Win rate is irrelevant unless you associate it with a percentage profit on turnover!

You are quite correct Moee and in this example I ran it with the odds as well with one unit bet per race. The system tested cam out with a 3200 loss. a bank buster.

I'm using http://www.bookiebusters.net/discus...html?1096989856 now if you wish me to test another system.

The rules again:

1. Dog is in Box 1
2. Has been 1st in 2 of 3 last starts
3. Has been 1st or 2nd in last 2 starts
4. Pre-post <= 3.00 (if you don't have Pre-post info then try SP < 2.5)

Yes, you are right that they are similar so let me give examples:
Rule 2, looking at last 3 starts where '0' is any place except 1st
101 ok - 1st in 2 of last 3
110 ok
011 ok
111 not ok
All others not ok

Rule 3, we only care about last 2 starts:
11 ok
12 ok
21 ok
22 ok
All others are not ok

So, if you combine these rules 2 and 3:
011 ok (where 0 is any place except 1st)
112 ok
121 ok

These are the only 3 criteria that meet the 2 rules.
Hope that helps
If you are able to check the results, can you provide the Win%, Place% and Return% based on SP too?



[ This Message was edited by: gizzard on 2004-10-13 21:06 ]

As stated in previous posts in relation to the dishlickers.

You CANNOT devise a system UNLESS you know the weight of the dog as compared to it's last start.

That's a ridiculous statement to make.
Cross out dishlicker and substitute chaffburner.
As far as forecasting the result of a race,how do you use this weight change?
Surely its value as a factor is miniscule.
A Big Mac for lunch and there's your up point two.
I weigh up to a kilo more or less every day.Weight variance is a normal thing.It's the abnormal occurences we need to predict.

So that's a ridiculous statement, I had better inform the best dog man I have ever known that He doesn't know what He is talking about.
He bets only wenty park and ALWAYS goes to the track.
He will have 3 or 4 dogs picked out for the night.
The FIRST thing when he gets to the track is to check the weight of his selections.
If any of them are up or down a kilo from it's last run he eliminates it.
Oh by the way he comes out winning 95% of the time.

Might be the first thing he does when he gets to the track,but obviously it's the last thing he does when he assesses his selections.
Up or down a kilo is a huge difference for a dog.Obviously that sort of change would be cause for concern.Thought you were talking about the up .2 or down .2 that are common fluctuations.

It's amazing what 2 tubs of margarine will do to a dog's performance in this start to it's last. :roll:

No it's never our poor analysis the reason for our picking a loser.It's always a tub or two of margerine.
I always thought the idea of entering a runner in a race was to win.Surely the best way not to win a race would be not to nominate in the first place?

If they don't nominate there is nothing for the form students to study for the next start.
A good dog, a couple of starts with a belly full of marg, or blood drained out, puts in a couple of shockers.
Next start 15 or 20/1 and wins with a leg in the air.
NO drugs and nothing to show up post race, just that the dog is now the way IT should be.

Do you have any evidence of that occurring,or are you just talking out of your pocket.
Did it happen just the once,or do you believe it happens with monotonous regularity.
Is this the way you lead your life or is it the rest of us humans.

I know someone who has bet as a professional with great success for years. He employs a number of people to place bets for him to hide his betting from the bookies.

The dog also MUST BE AT ITS RIGHT RACING WEIGHT.

No not talking thru my pocket as I very rarely bet the dogs.
ONLY if my friend gives me the occasional tip.
I spoke to him today and it's quite interesting as he also when assessing his selections looks for dogs that have run well 4 or 5 starts back and then put in the shockers.
He checks the weight of the dog in the shocker runs compared to when it was running well.
If on this night the dog's weight is it's correct racing weight he looks very hard at backing it.
Just remember it's all about money (for the owners and trainers). The prizemoney in dogs is very poor (except some major races), so how does one make it worthwhile, by backing the dog and at decent odds.
As far as the other things I mentioned they are nothing.
I wouldn't be game to post here what goes on behind the scenes with the dishlickers.

Did you know the driver waiting in the getaway car will also be charged with murder if the bank robbery goes tragically wrong?
And if you know of criminal activity taking place,and do not alert the authorities,then you are aiding and abetting.
If I had any evidence that there was corruption going on,surely I'd be a fool to continue punting.

It sounds like somebody has been feeding somebody a load of verbal diarrhea. You must have seen a dog being biled out, and they've told you it's margarine, and yoy believed it. Apart from making a dog violantly ill I can't see any benefits, a hard chaser will chase with a belly full of bricks and win anyway. To get a dogs price out to 15/1 or 20/1 it would take at least 5 runs, and the money to make it worthwhile would be more than the tote pool or a bookmaker would stand you for.
As for weight variation a dog can be up say .4, this is done pre kennelling, before the race the dogs are paraded, a dog can empty out and unless you weigh it how do you know the dogs weight.
As far as picking a winner if you sort out the trainers who can train and I don't neccessarily mean the leading trainers [the statistics are easily available] a dog that can run, in the right grade on the right side of the track you are a long way to being successful

Now there you hear someone spitting out the truth rather than the bull******** we tend to believe.
Millions of Germans thought that Hitler was a godsend!

Please keep posts pleasant and relevant to thread subject matter.

_________________




[ This Message was edited by: Moderator 2 on 2004-10-17 10:50 ]

Nulla,
I'm not going to get into a debate with you, all I am trying to to do is offer advise given to me by a bloke that wins more money at the dogs than 99% of us could dream of regardless of what we bet on.
If he would let me go with him on a sat and mon night I would basically never bet a nag again.
He won't let me as there is only about 6 bookies now at wenty and that is 99% where he places his bets.Forget the TAB as far as dogs are concerned, as a $1000 bet would kill your odds.
As far as other things mentioned here believe me or not I don't give a damn.
Let me just put one more thing to you.
If you were a dog and was being put in the box and you got a really hard squeeze on the nuts, how would you race?????
Food for thought because it's another thing that DOES happen.
Good punting,I just hope the bricks in the stomach of the dog you bet on are made from styrene.

To All Doubting Thomases,

J. Gilbert one of the biggest trainers in NSW, who's dogs have a habit of losing at short odds and winning at decent odds has just been suspended for using COCAINE on the dogs.

I REST MY CASE.

My uncle used to race dogs ages ago..he told me he used to stick deep heat in the dogs butt....made them run like there was no tomorrow.....guess they just wanted it out...funny thing it was not against the rules RSPCA don't take tio kindly..tried to charge him with cruelty to animals...he beat them in court by telling the judge they had straind there calf muscle and thats what he was using to fix it...lol

Well watched a documentary about greyhound racing in Ireland. Where they put the dogs on the train tracks and make them run for their lives. Sadly quite a lot of dogs die when being hit by the catching train. Those that make it are considered to be good enough to race. Sad world.

Hi all

Interesting read i know that a few people i knew when i had greyhounds use to to be weight conscious of the dog. The winning weight was the meseuring stick so to speak. How to interpret the variations i am not sure.

Yes as dogs are placed in the boxes many things can happen.

A pro i use to know with the greyhounds used the following:
-He use to go to all the trials
-Use his own timer
-Time the greyhounds from the start to the winning post etc
-Look at the weight
-frame his market

He doen very well for himself. He was disciplined and patient.

regards
ubetido

Dogs weight. You can find all that info on grv.org.au but what does it really make a difference too. Here is an example

Race 6 G.I./F.M. 100.7 (GOBIS)
Free For All 513 Metres 01:25PM
Box Dog Trk Last Tday Var.
1. HOTLINE HERO [G] 35.8 36.4 36.0 -0.4
2. AWESOME GUS [G] 39.2 39.2 39.2 SW
3. RARE RESPECT [G]34.0 34.0 34.4 +0.4
4. PARUMBA SURPRISE 27.0 27.0 27.0 SW
5.***VacantBox*** 6. DARK JAY [G] 27.6 36.4 36.4 SW
7. DANNY MAGEE [G] 33.4 34.2 34.2 SW
8. BROMAGE 35.6 36.4 36.0 -0.4

Results:
#1,8,4
R7
Box Dog Trk Last Tday Var.
1. NICHOLAS JAMES 33.2 33.2 33.4 +0.2
2. TINY TIPPER 29.0 29.6 29.6 SW
3. WAISTCOAT 32.8 32.8 31.8 -1.0 *
4. PACING POWER 31.4 32.4 32.4 SW
5. STORM ALERT (SA) N/A 33.8 33.6 -0.2
6. AKINA GEM 26.4 26.4 26.4 SW
7. ZEMSEL N/A 31.4 31.8 +0.4
8. HIGHLY POWERED 26.0 26.0 25.8 -0.2

Results#1,4,7
R8
Box Dog Trk Last Tday Var.
1. LOTSA DOTS 27.6 29.0 29.2 +0.2
2. CARIOKA LIL 32.6 32.2 32.2 SW
3. MIRIKU 34.4 34.2 34.2 SW
4. SAVANNAH DAWN 25.8 25.8 25.8 SW
5. LADY ROSA 29.8 29.8 29.8 SW
6. AKINA RUBY 26.0 26.0 26.2 +0.2
7. SCARPANTONI 31.0 31.0 31.2 +0.2
8. RICOSHEA 29.6 29.6 29.8 +0.2

Results:#7,8,3

Now I dont what to make of this. Winners have lost weight, gained weight, stayed the same. Fluctuation I call it. These weights are given when they weigh them at the track at whatever time. The dogs then walk down to the boxes release some tension, and have a bog or a piddle somewhere. Some dogs do, some dogs dont. And I dont know what to make of that.
On the grv formguide it has winning weights.

Race 6#1 Hotline hero won. This weight.36.0
his winning weights:
35.2 kg (2) 35.6 kg (2) 35.8 kg (8) 36.0 kg (7) 36.2 kg (2) 36.4 kg (3) 36.6 kg (3) 37.0 kg (2)

Race 7 #1 This weight:33.4
Winning weights:
33.2 kg (1) 33.4 kg (1)

Race 8#7 this weight 31.2
winning weights:
30.4 kg (3) 30.6 kg (1) 30.8 kg (2) 31.0 kg (1)



Now since you have read the winners weights, lets see if anything reasonable pops up in the losing dogs. TO see whether there is a *reason.

Race 6:#2 This weight 39.2
Winning weights:
37.0 kg (1) 37.2 kg (1) 37.6 kg (1) 39.2 kg (1)
#3 This weight 34.4
Winning weights:
33.4 kg (2) 34.0 kg (1) 34.2 kg (1) 34.4 kg (2)
#4 This weight: 27.0
winning weights:
26.4 kg (1) 26.8 kg (1) 27.0 kg (1)

#6 This weight: 36.4
Winning weights:
36.6 kg (1) 37.2 kg (2) 37.6 kg (1) 38.0 kg (1)

#7 This weight: 34.2
Winning weights:
33.4 kg (3) 33.6 kg (3) 33.8 kg (1) 34.2 kg (1) 34.4 kg (1)

#8 This weight: 36
Winning weight:
35.6 kg (1) 36.0 kg (1) 36.4 kg (1)

So if you look at where they are in their winning weights
#1 IN the middle
#2 At the end
#3 At the end
#4 At the end
#6 At the start
#7 At the end
#8 In the middle

Interesting....#1,8 were in the middle of their winning weights and they ran 1st and 2nd. Lets see if it continues:

Race 7: #1 Weight: 33.4
33.2 kg (1) 33.4 kg (1)

#2 Weight: 29.6
28.4 kg (1) 29.0 kg (1) 29.2 kg (1)

#3 Weight: 31.8
kg (1) 30.8 kg (2) 31.0 kg (1) 31.4 kg (1)

#4 Weight: 32.4
31.2 kg (1) 31.6 kg (1) 32.0 kg (1)

#5 Weight: 33.6
33.6 kg (2) 34.0 kg (1)

#6 Weight: 26.4
25.8 kg (1) 26.0 kg (1) 26.4 kg (1)

#7 Weight: 31.8
31.2 kg (1) 31.4 kg (1)

#8 Weight: 25.8
25.2 kg (1) 26.0 kg (2)

#1 End
#2 Over
#3 Over
#4 over
#5 Start
#6 End
#7 Over
#8 End

Results #1,4,7

I dont have the time to go through more races. But draw whatever info you can out of that.