WEIGHT RATINGS, OPINIONS WANTED!
 

Hi all, I am a new contributor with a question for you all. I run and maintain my own database on Australian and New Zealand horse racing, and as such I class in kilograms every single meeting, picnics included, that is run in Australia. I have a written program that does it, and I merely need to check them to make sure they are right. The program is excellent and the class figures are right. This means I have an extremely accurate database which I use to punt. My question is this:

As an extra income stream, would these class figures be saleable? IE, is there a market for class figures on all races, so people with databases of their own wouldn't have to do their own classing and wouldn't have to rely on the general class figures that database providers, but would instead have my excellent and accurate figures which they could simply pump into their own databases?

To me, it seems a shame that I don't use this that I have created to more advantage than just my own punting, which is why I am considering this option.

Thoughts please?

There are mugs out there that would buy them and i for one say if you can make a buck from it go for it....i prefer to do my own form...i think it brings more satisfaction.....if they are that good you could always turn pro....then you could get all the chicks with the money you won...and all your friends would think you were god.

Class Figures
 

This would only be class figures they would be getting, ie the kilogram figure which expresses the strength of the race, from which weight ratings can be derived. They are the basis of a weight ratings method (methods employed by the likes of the late Don Scott, by Mark Read and others). I wouldn't do the form for them, like you I agree that satisfaction comes from the intellectual challenge and from getting it right, I would merely be provoding the class figures for those who have a database of weight ratings or who want one, meaning they would have at their disposal and for their use weight ratings for all the horses they were doing the form for, and believe me it helps when you're doing the form. Weight ratings are not the be all and end all, but they are great way of sifting the grain from the chaff. (I think that's the saying...)

Any one else got opinions on this too?

SHOW ME THE MONEY!
 

How about slapping some of your rating selections on the forum.
Seeing as you are not selling anything as yet,I'm sure the management would not see your tips as contrary to the terms of use.

Below are my assessed prices, to an 80% value market, for the Cox Stakes in WA tomorrow. Again though, what I wanted to stress is that I wouldn't be selling SELECTIONS or TIPS, but class figures for races gone by, which people can use to do their own form.

That being said, here's some tips LOL

15 Free at Last $3.30
11 Mr Sandgroper $4.80
3 True Steel $7.00
13 Crown Prosecutor $13.00

I like the top two very much actually. Will be taking the quinella and backing Mr. Sandgroper if he's value. Free at Last unlikely to be much longer than the assessed price so prob won't back it. Definitely having a good go the quinella though.

Good luck, and if others have opinions as to the validity of making KILOGRAM CLASS FIGURES available for sale, please respond.

Cheers.

I use to use weight ratings but decided to make my own.....will post mine tomorrow and see what difference we come up with

Price Predictor Pro already has ratings which automatically calculate, so does Winline GTX, so you're really battling against established products unless you have an outstanding ratings system.

Can I ask a question though...

Are your ratings from a horse's career performance, last few starts or last start performance?

Duritz,

Whether it's class ratings, price assessments, rankings, single selection tips etc., believe me there's no easy money out there to be made by selling them. The general perception of the punting public, which is incorrect, is that there is.

The market is saturated - and includes plenty of outrageous claims which makes distiniguishing anything that is half decent over the long term from the rubbish very difficult for any prospective purchasers.

There are also of course advertising or internet site expenses which will rapidly eat into proceeds from sales.

Cheers,
Neil.

Well can I say it is very refreshing to see management contributing rather than feeling intimidated or threatened.
Well done Neil.
Seems Rikki's talents are contagious.

I agree with Neil.

I would add this:

1. You will never make any money by marketing race information to the mug-punter losers that populate TABs - they don't see gambling as an investment, and are not prepared to pay for better information than that which is free on the wall, newspaper, sky channel etc.

2. It will be difficult for you, a new player, to compete in the "serious" market because accurate class/weight/race ratings already exist, are readily available, and are cheap (perhaps even free). Therefore, I doubt you could compete on price.

3. If your selling point is that your computerised class figures are more accurate than those available in the market place, you would have to prove this to potential purchasers by direct comparison over thousands of races/ horses. By revealing such information, you would allow simple reverse engineering destroying any value in your IP.

4. You could sell your race ratings, selections, or analysis. Some such services come and go almost overnight, while some (such as the service connected to this site) have stood the test of time. The percentage of start-up businesses that fail in the first year is high and I bet racing services are even more likely to fail.

5. For the above reason, I reckon you'd be better off punting your money on your selections than spending money on advertising.

Good luck!

I will also add that unfortunately if information is provided at a very economical price for punters it is not really viable to do so:

1. There is a general perception that if it is cheap then it is no good.

2. There's a very high likelihood of attracting very small, undisciplined punters who don't obtain good odds about their winners and who misuse the information. An example is a punter we obtained who backed our top selections one week and saw a lot of second selections win at good odds. So next week this punter left all the top selections alone and backed the second selections. Of course, you don't need to be told what happened.

We have found it uneconomic to provide affordable information for the average small punter for those and other reasons and now only provide one betting package which is priced and marketed only for more serious and hopefully more disciplined punters. Without discipline no information, paid or free, no computer programme, nothing will work long term for the punter.

I'll take a bet
 

Duritz,

I'll take your $13 each way Crown Prosecutor.

Cheers,

F

ps. you sure you haven't confused the saddlecloth number with your price assessment?

Excellent posts Neil and Filante thanks very much for that. If there are accurate class figures out there then I could not be bothered trying to compete when the potential benefit would be stuff all anyway. As to selling tips etc, tough gig that, leave me out. I never want to get into that aspect, I was just testing the water to see if there was a niche for class figures rather than tips.

As to the mugs in the TAB, I work in a TAB so believe me, I know those mugs, and yes you're right they do not want to pay for anything, and they don't want more than whats on the wall. In fact, they often don't even want that, content merely to peer up at the screen which displays the next race to jump in any code anywhere in the country, pick some numbers at random, fill their card out incorrectly and not know what they meant to fill out when I ask them, then complain when they don't win.

Hey but for the fun of it I'll post my prices for whatever I personally handicap tomorrow, I won't bother posting the computer's automatically generated assessments. I will probably HCP Ascot and Geelong (selected events), should I post them here or is there another thread which is a better one to use?

Duritz

Filante I forgot to mention, all prices I put up are assessed to an 80% market so I certainly wouldn't be laying them at the prices I put up, rather backing them at those prices. Converted to 100% odds that makes it about a $10 or $11 chance according to me.

Certainly not confusing saddle cloth with odds, for although it was a very nice win by Crown Prosecutor LS, it is up in class and up in weight. I don't think it can carry the same weight as Mr Sandgroper and beat him, and I certainly don't think it can give 1.5 kilos to Free at Last and beat her. That being said, it still is my fourth pick and so I am not saying it cannot win, but that it represents bad value. Time will tell. Horse racing can be a great humbler.

You had a query which I neglected to answer in previous post as to my ratings method. For the classing aspect (past race), it examines the horses previous rating, compares that performance with today in terms of fin pos today, weight carried then to now and difference in class and assesses what it thinks the horse should rate today. It does that for the top five each race and comes up with the race figure as a result. For tomorrows races when the computer does the form it relies largely but not entirely on current form. I have always found (and nothing is without exception) that current form is the best barometer. Trainers may pull horses up (shock horror!) which distorts this but by and large, put simply, how a horse is going is how it is going.

Good luck
Duritz

What's wrong with five feet tall punters.?

realistically.
 

the market picks 33% of winners so ratings are not required for that 33%
the other 67% is luck.
if ratings pick them it is probably by co-incidence rather than the ratings working.

other downsides to ratings are that they apply to every race and it is an astute punter that can pick the eyes out of ratings and win.

they may have the ability to pick false favorites which can lead to overlays which i think are required to win at racing.

the knowledge to be able to bet with confidence is the key.
if ratings can give this then by all means. i havent seen it yet.
good luck.

Duritz,

I was only joking about the bet, but I do think you might have under-rated Crown Prosecutor for tomorrow. My view is that he's been set for this race and is ready to hit his peak. He was only just beaten in his two 2,400m runs last preparation. He's a winner of 6 from 20. I give him a bonus for being a 4yo because I think 4 and 5yos seomhow rise to the top in feature staying events, and I give him a further bonus for the ease of his last start win, because statistically horses that win by over three lengths repeat more often than their ratings suggest they should.

Mr Sandgroper definitely has the best overall form in the race, is a winner over 2,400m at Grp1 level, a winner of 5 from 14, and is a 4yo. He appeals to me as the best chance in the race. I'm not sure I agree with the proposition you put on another thread that he improves significantly over a staying distance - he seems perfectly adaptable to sprinting to me (see, for instance, one of his first up runs as a three year old when he carried 57kg from barrier 16 on an open 3yo 1,200m race and won by 3 lengths and his several good recent middle distance performances).

I'm less keen about Free At Last who has had an odd preparation for this, being 2nd up after a 53-day spell, and True Steel who is a 7yo with a significantly lower win strike rate than the other three chances, but I concede them both a chance as they rate around the mark with Mr Sandgroper out of their last start clash behind Modem over 1,800m, and both will certainly run the trip.

Anyway, I have them 11. Mr Sandgroper $3; 13. Crown Prosecutor $3.25; 15. Free at Last $6; and 3. True Steel $6.5.

In relation to your ratings for tomorrow, I would post them on a new thread.

Cheers,

F