First 3 in the Tipters Poll
 

I have been watching the first 3 in the poll for a couple of weeks.

The results are: 108 selections for 25 winners a strike rate of 23% which is not bad. I will contine to watch this.

Benny

Have you also looked at eliminating any horse which is picked on top by all the journos.
Some great value in their alternate selections.

Nudge Nudge Wink Wink (Coat tug).

108 selections means you've only looked at 36 races. Much too small a sample to get carried away with Benny, as 1 Saturday alone will give you more than 36 races.

The results up to 27/12 are 45 winners from 202 selections still around 22.3% s.r

I'm not yet ready to bet as this is just a small sample. I may bet after 3 months results.

Benny

one of the reasons i dont look at this type of method is that it has a selection in every race. makes a punter flat out like a duck paddling
take it easy - have fun. and we dont learn anything other than betting someone else's picks.

i recall the old royal routine system which someone gave me in 1962
it had a shilling on the first selection of each tipster with a minimum of 10 tipsters in the newspaper poll. e.g. 10 lines running on each race talk about a major project.
i never did find out if it worked or if anyone else ever made it work.
does anyone out there know?

darkydog2002
 

TOPSY. That was the first system I ever bought.A complete dud.

Did you ever try the PATARINA.?Always wanted to know about this one.
Cheers .
darky

Ah the good old Royal Routine.
Not the fastest way to the poor house, but you get there eventually.

imagine paying yourself day labour to run the royal routine.
you'd be worth a fortune.
certainly a lot of effort goes into staying solvent in racing.
its almost a good enough reason to give it away.

darkydog2002
 

Your not wrong there Topsy.
Cheers.
darky.

is that a 22%sr for the top 3 horses...backing 3 horse a race is that what you mean....whats the average dividend....my top selection alone has a 23% SR and i am still losing money on it....my top 3 has a 64% SR with evearge divi of $5.35

I think he means a 22% strike rate for each individual horse, so I guess that's 66% strike rate per race (give or take a bit for scratchings).

I doubt that there would be a 66% strike-rate - a strike-rate of that nature defies the maths and my experiecne of the tipsters poll would be that the top-selection would win more than the second, which in turn would win more than the third etc. My estimation would be that the strike-rate would be closer to 50% for the top-three.

Similar with Shaun's comments - with a 23% strike-rate the claim of 64% in the top-three does not hold-up unless there are a very small number of selections - simply in deference to the maths of it all.

WELL IN MY CASE IT IS ABOUT 20-25 RACES A WEEK IS WHAT I COVER

The 22% Benny was referring to was an average of ALL selections, so undoubtedly the top selections' strike rate would be higher than that, probably around 27 or 28%. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a 60%+ strike rate for the top 3 picks, especially over a fairly short period of time.

Hmmm, just been looking back over some recent results and I have to admit that the 60%+ IS probably unrealistic. You're right, I reckon 50% is about all you could expect long term. Brisbane and Sydney both had a couple of good weeks but levelled off while Melbourne seemed to be difficult just about every week. Think Benny might have just been looking at 1 or 2 good weeks.

If one is looking at tipsters poll say the Australian.
All paper polls have the same SR as one another .

1st sel 30% =30%
2nd sel 15% =45%
3rd sel 10% =55%

This is based on 2 years results of all newspapers in Australia ,Individual Tipsters in those papers , Radio Tipsters , Jockey tips, Spotsman newspaper.ext.

I feel the best way to use these is to treat it like a 2 horse race & seperate the Top 2 selections (45%SR) , once you have worked out your selection , only bet it if it`s paying $2.80+ at jump time.