Filante Ratings - Caulfield - 26/12/04
 

My ratings for Caulfield today:

RACE 1

1. $1.8
2. $2.7

RACE 3

2. $1.7
6. $5.0
5. $7.2

RACE 4

1. $3.2
4. $4.0
7. $6.0
2. $12.0
8. $13.0

RACE 5

2. $3.9
9. $4.25
8. $5.4
5. $7.0
7. $9.0

RACE 6

7. $1.8
6. $3.6

RACE 7

4. $3.6
9. $5.0
1. $7.0
7. $9.3

RACE 8

7. $2.5
2. $4.2
3. $5.0
4. $10.0

Best Bets are:

Race 1 No.1 Secateurs
Race 3 No.2 Conceptual
Race 6 No.7 Cool Trent
Race 8 No.7 High Shakira

Hello,
I thought race 6 no 7 was a typo until you listed Cool Trent as one of your best bets. It has one win from 27 starts and I'll bet my last dollar if I have any left by then that it finds a way to lose again. Are you certain your program hasn't blown a fuse? Like your ratings. Good luck.
Marcus.

Filante, is that meant to be 3 and 4?

Cheers Filante, no doubt your input is much appreciated by all.

Thanks Marcus and Sportznut for the comments. Yes the 4th pick in race 8 is number 4. I've edited to fix that. As for Cool Trent, he finds his right tace today. I reckon the field he met last week was a length to a length and a half stronger and he only went down by a nose. He'll be at his peak. Brad Rawiller goes on, which suits. Call me mad, but I don't think you'd lose your money backing him each way; I'm going to put a reasonable size bet on him to win. Good luck with whatever you back.

Cheers,

F

...and thanks Paddy too. Now let's go and bust the bookies!

Cheers,

F

Well done today Filante.

And you certainly proved Marcus wrong - thats the way to show the knockers! (no offence intended Marcus) Backed a few of your selections today at Sydney and Melbourne and did very well - Thanks. Will be watching your selections very closely in the future!

thanks again
Chuck

Yeah, congratulations once again on the ratings. Excellent work today. You should have a go in the Tipping comp. :)

Summary
 

Thanks for positive response guys. There were some bizarre results today, but still managed 3 value winners from the 7 races and 3 of the 4 best bets won. Those winners were:


Race 1 No.1 Secateurs $1.9 (assessed $1.8)

Race 3 No.2 Conceptual $2.3 (assessed $1.7)

and yes...

Race 6 No.7 Cool Trent $5.0 (assessed $1.8)

I assume your 'best bets' were those that you rated on top at no more than $3 ???

I guess the secret is to actually believe and trust the ratings that you have in front of you.

I've just been experimenting with them on paper over the last week and I wasn't really game to trust them. However, I'm just looking at the ratings that I had worked out for today, and yes, Cool Trent actually came out on top and the ratings also found some other good winners. I'm definitely going to have to look at this.

I don't think I'll try the tipping comp - not keen on a forced bet on the feature races or the all-up.

Instead I'll keep a tally of how the best bets from my ratings go starting from last week. I'll calculate it at $10 on each selection at top fluctuation.

18/12/04 Flemington: 2/3 +39

22/12/04 Sandown: 0/3 -30

26/12/04 Randwick 3/6 +72

26/12/04 Caulfield 3/4 +52

Total to date: 8/16; out 160 in 293 = +133 (83% profit on turnover)

Exactly right. The best way to bet them is to have a base bet (e.g.$10) and then to multiply that by the value you get.

e.g Cool Trent $5 available/ $1.8 assessed = 2.8, so the bet is 28@5

Secateurs $1.9/$1.8 = 1.1, so the bet is 11@1.9

See that's where I go wrong I think. I tend to be too influenced by the betting market, so I'd probably be too scared to put the bigger bet on the longer priced one.

I'm thinking of changing that somewhat and giving tipsters a little more freedom.

Indeed that is without a doubt the biggest mistake punters make, basing there bets on the current market, rather than there own personal opinion

Chuck