Carlyon
 

Mate I'm ********ed but Regal Roller goes wonderful fresh and the WFA and barrier suits him ideal, he does'nt meet the best bunch here, i love Super Elegant but wasn't to impressed with last start despite being on him. He has been set for the Cualfield G1's but anything over 4/1 he could very nearly take this fresh.

I'm already convincing myself the Roller might be worth laying. I always hate it when trainers "overshoot" in a campaign. Regal Roller tackling the Cox Plate was a mistake, and all it meant was that he didnt go to the paddock at the top of his game. He may be flat first up.

Unimpressive first up form, unimpressive Valley form, unimpressive form at 1200m. I hope he starts fave.

I agree with Mr Ed about Super Elegant and with Brave Chief about Regal Roller.
Also its a night race at MV - strange things happen there after dark!
In short I reckon its a no-bet race.

I'd suggest both the Regal Roller and Super Elegant can't win tonight. RR peaks second up and he is fresh tonight. SE peaks first up then is slightly flater 2nd up. Secauters to control the race from in front with little speed, slip them on the turn and holds off Truly Wicked on the post. Perhaps the quinella?

Strikeline wasnt a bad run considering the poor start it had. Likes the valley and it might be worth an EW bet.

IMO this race is going to be over before it starts. Truly wicked is over the line at decent odds ($6 Sportsbet so far). RR will find the going to tough first up espically with the pace secatures will set. In saying this i see secatures as the main danger only because there is no where near the room as super elegant or others had at caulfield to run him down. I expect truly wicked to be a little closer tonight and hit the lead at the 100 with more in the tank than secatures.

i gotta agree with you real deal. having had a look at the rubiton stks truly wicked was a little unlucky in that race. yeah if it sticks alittle closer then it should win.

RR by all reports took no harm from the Cox Plate start although i agree they shouldn't have ran him, his first up run last prep in the heavy was tremendous, before then he was a different horse with foot problems so i am not even looking back further then last two preps. Truly Wicked does look the obvious danger and i think the $6 is a good price for her.

I think Skewiff might upset them, from barrier 4 will get a beautiful run behind the pace, goes well fresh and likes Moonee Valley, won by 5 lengths first up at Moonee Valley last prep!!!!

Regal Roller will probably need a run i feel and Super Elegant second up doesn't inspire confidence as already stated, Strikeline missed the start last time but has the class to win this and finished of the race better then the others i thought could be a nice E/W bet. Truly Wicked and Secateurs will be thereabouts as usual and i think if the speed is on then Confederate Kid might run on and blow them all away at huge odds.

shhh testa ;)

Regals odds would have tripled after 100m, I concede he wasn't the best investment now but i wouldn't drop off him though but maybe wait till he gets back to Caulfield.

Just saw this thread. Can't believe anyone could back Regal Roller first up MV 1200. Gee what's his best track and distance? Where's he trained? After a tough prep, how's he likely to have been treated in the spelling paddock - quietly or kept in work? I can tell you that none of that money in the ring which made him favourite and blew out the super consistent Super Elegant (who the whole world was potting) was from the camp. Sometimes punters outthink themselves, and - looking back at this line - sometimes they outspell themselves too. Damn red wine...

betting on reputation
 

many short priced favorites are backed on reputation and not on the conditions of the race.
yesterday in launceston there was two short priced favorites in the main races.
one from adelaide and fine omens a tasmanian that has won in melbourne.
before fine omens race i commented that his last two wins were at flemington on wet tracks and was strange to see him so short yesterday.
he finished 3rd last on a dry track.
he also has not placed in a group or listed race since march 03 which is a fair while so he was over bet significantly yesterday.
the horse that won the race from barrier one looked the goods and duly saluted.

in the case of super elegant he hadnt done a lot wrong had he.

Yeah, likewise. Regal Roller is one of those horses you dream about as a punter, because everything is so clear cut. Personally, I wouldn't really think of betting on him at any other track than Caulfield and when he's at Caulfield over 1400m, he's close to a good thing.

Caulfield (1400m): 9 starts for 7 wins and 2 placings

Caulfield (other distances): 5 starts for 1 win and 1 placing

Other Melb tracks: 8 starts for 1 placing.