WTA
 

Ana Ivanovic v Maria Vento-Kabchi
Qatar Open

New 'wonderkid' Ivanovic up against a very ordinary Vento-Kabchi whose recent form has been, to say the least, poor. Ivanovic has some great scalps in 2005 and recently won her first WTA tournament (Canberra).

$1.33 available WillHill - 1 unit.

Players to be weary in Qatar - Bartoli (suspect knee), Bovina (resuming form long injury layoff), Sharapova(resuming from flu), Suarez (resuming from long layoff - dodgy foot)

Dally Randriantefy v Angela Haynes
Acupulco

True clay courter and experienced Randriantefy up against young hard court player Haynes who rarely competes on the dirt. Haynes is also coming off some ordinary form last week losing to qulaifier Bondarenko. Career marred by nagging shoulder injury.

$1.40 available at 5Dimes - 1 unit.

Players to be weary of in Acupulco - LlagosteraVives (recent tendonitis), Domachowska (recent shoulder strain)

Interesting first post...

I thought WTA was an abbreviation for Wangaratta.
Surely it's not Weight To Age?

Day2
 

Stosur vs Sugiyama
Qatar

Stosur's progressed through the qualies even though she was beaten by the impressive Kirilenko in the third round. However both girls knew before the game started that the loser would progress to the main draw as the "lucky loser" - so I'm not too concerned about the result. Sugiyama's played
poorly since last year's US Open and has lost her four games this season (including some ordinary opponents). She's still a good player but is getting old by tennis standards so her career may well have peaked (she ceratinly doesn't move as well anymore). Stosur'warm up through the qualies, her strong start to 2005 season (two hardcourt finals appearances), and her ability to hold her own serve make her good value.

Stosur $1.87 @ SportOdds

Day 3
 

Schiavone v Sugiyama
Qatar

I stick by my assessment of Sugiyama and put her win over Stosur down to Samantha's very ordinary play. Her serve and volley was so confused that Sugiyama continuously passed her down the line. Schiavone, while not setting the world on fire this season, has only lost to quality players such as Myskina and Molik. She also has solid 3-0 h2h record against Sugiyama with these wins coming while Sugiyama was in top form.

Schiavone $1.51 @ Pinnacle.

Domachowska v Osterloh
Acapulco

According to yesterday’s interview, Domachowska is over her shoulder complaint and displaying confidence. She traveled to Mexico a week early to acclimatize to the conditions after her short layoff so should be ready for the match. Domachowska prefers clay and is 53 wins/23 losses while Osterloh is 24/41 on the dirt. The first round didn’t provide much insight – Domachowska warming up by thrashing a “no name” and Osterloh getting past a lackluster Waters (who is no star on clay either).

Domachowska $1.40 generally available

Day 3 con't
 

Randriantefy vs Perebiynis

Slightly riskier proposition. Randriantefy is one those players who always starts the season slowly and then improves during the clay swing. Her 108/55 record on the dirt speaks for itself, even though a fair proportion of those games were on the end of year clay court Challenger circuit. Perebiynis is no slouch on the dirt but doesn't have Randriantefy's experience. Her poor start to the season and early departure from Bogata (clay) last week may count against her. Perebiynis won their only encounter but this was at the Olympics and on a different surface so I'm not sure what conclusions can be drawn.Slight edge to Randraintefy at the price.

Randriantefy $1.76 @ 5Dimes

ty Marco
 

Thanks for the tip on the WTA.

Didn't have much on but enjoyed the win

Do you post here often?

karla

Day 4
 

Gagliardi vs Serra Zanetti
Acapulco

Gagliardi's a clear favourite for mine. Her 6-2 6-1 domination of Pin in the first round was rather encouraging while Serra Zanetti surprised many by beating the competent Llagostera Vives. However Llagostera Vives withdrew from Bogata last week with leg tendonitis and was a doubtful starter for this tournament. Head to head's favour Gagliardi 2-0 and while only one was on Clay (Italian Open 2001), both players had similar rankings to their current status (result 6-3 6-0). Gagliardi's slow start to the year is offset by Serra Zanetti's 1win/5loss since January, plus Gagliardi has the advantage of a good Clay workout in Bogata last week.

Gagliardi $1.55 @ 5Dimes

Pennetta vs Diaz-Oliva
Acapulco
Another favourite at a short price. Pennetta's in the best form of her career as displayed in her strong showing against Schruff in the first round. She did drop an early game but soon closed Schruff out with top rate finishing. Of course Diaz-Oliva is capable of an upset but I think it unlikely. She made the final in Acupulco in 2003 but was very lucky with Suarez's first round retirement and then only beat the likes of Muller, Vaskova and a clay-shy Asagoe. Since then Diaz-Oliva has only beaten one Top-50 player in 20 or so tour games with most of her time being spent on the challenger circuit.My calculations rate Pennetta as a 77.8 per cent chance so there's value at the price.

Pennetta $1.42 @ 5Dimes

Day 4 cont'd
 

Martinez vs Hantuchova

The glamorous Hantuchova vs the dour old war-horse Martinez is generating lots of punting action on the exchanges. Martinez upset the classy Myskina yesterday and played very well. Her serve was a little inconsistent but she was superb from the baseline which will suit against Hantuchova's style.
Martinez also recently beat young up-and-comers Peer, Groenefeld and Linetskya showing she still has plenty in the tank during what will be her last year on tour. To quote Martinez " "I feel healthy. Beating the No.5 in the world does a lot for my confidence. It took a few days to get used to the conditions here but I'm playing well, aggressive, and I didn't let her play her game today." Hantuchova got passed the talented Bovina yesterday in 3 sets but it's hard to draw conclusions as Bovina was returning from an injury layoff. It's generally thought that Hantuchova lacks the patience needed to counter Martinez's very crafty slice and spin - great to watch. Head to heads favour Martinez 3-1. Interestingly she opened at $2.83 at Pinnacle but the price was hammered in to $2.54 within 15 minutes.

Martinez $2.54 @ Pinnacle

Day 5
 

Randriantefy vs Loit
Acapulco

I've explained above my general feelings on Radriantefy. Loit is certainly on her favourite surface but has played rather inconsistantly this year. Her recent loss to the lowly ranked Fernandez, her struggle against Beltrame in Round 2 and 0/4 start to the hardcourt season suggests she is vulnerable. Loit leads the h2h - all of which were on clay - but all of which were relatively close. I don't believe she should be this short in the market so Randriantefy represents value.

Randriantefy $2.75 @ Sportingbet.


Pennetta vs Osterloh.
Acapulco

Again, I've explaied my general feelings on both these players above. Osterloh is really riding her luck - this is her best clay performance ever - in what has been an ordinary season for her. However her luck runs out today as Pennetta has been magnificent this week in Acupulco and last week in Bogota. Every one will agree that there's been some upsets this week but I surprised Pennetta isn't shorter than her current quotes. It's hard to make money in the long term betting so short but I still believe there's value in today's price.

Pennetta @$1.24 @ Sportodds.

Day 6
 

Randriantefy v Cervanova
Acapulco

I've ridden the Randriantefy wave this far so I'll try her one more time. Cervanova definitely has the game to beat the Madagascan and I'm predicting a close affair. However Randriantefy is the more experienced player and has performed more consistently over a longer period of time. Both have played well this week though Randriantefy has beaten a better class of opponent (both have won in straight sets). Cervanova's early exit from Bogata last week wasn't the best preparation making Randraintefy her first solid clay opponent this week. Neither are power hitters or big servers so expect a few service breaks.

Randriantefy $1.80 @ 5Dimes


Pennetta vs Serra Zanetti
Acapulco

Very surprised at the early prices offered on Pennetta. She's in terrific form and after a small hiccup during yesterday's first set, went on to demolish Osterloh. Perhaps the price is being driven by the H2h record which favours Zanetti 4-0 (3 of which were on clay). However the clay matches were in 1999-2000 seasons and relate to a totally different period and dynamic (as indicated by the players WTA rankings). Both players are Italian and know each others game as can be expected, but I just don't think Zanetti (ranked 118) has the current form or skill to match the 23-year-old Italian (ranked 30). When Zanetti beat Pennetta she held a higher ranking which is far from the case today. My only query would be the fatigue factor after winning in Bogata last week and competing in the singles and doubles here in Acapulco. Nevertheless, all factors point to a Pennetta win and at the price she represents tremendous value.

Pennetta $1.42 @ SportsTab

Any thoughts on Molik ($3.00) vs. Sharapova ($1.37)? I'm thinking of having a small 'recreational' wager on Molik just for aussie pride

Day 7
 

Pennetta vs Cervanova
Acapulco

The short price has made me think twice about this bet but I believe Pennetta still represents value (rated 72.6%) and that she has the momentum and game to beat Cervanova. There's no doubt Cervanova played extremely well against Randriantefy yesterday - especially during the third set. However finals pressure may count against her - she lost to Loit in her only other finals appearance (Casablanca; Clay; 2004) and has lost her four other semifinal appearances - all on clay. It can be argued that Cervanova has lifted her game and improved more than Pennetta during the week but I still rate her well below the Italian. Of course an upset is always possible and fatigue could be factor in Pennetta's performance - she complained of leg pains during her match with Osterloh - but this didn't seem to affect her yesterday. Luckily Serra Zanetti put in a meek performance in the semi final saving Pennetta from a physically drainig effort. She's also sounding very upbeat: "I like it here very much. I've always said that this is one of my favorite tournaments." Note that Cervanova won their only meeting but this was a hardcourt game in Indian Wells last year.

Pennetta $1.41 @ 5Dimes

Week 1
 

Week 1

14 Bets: 9 Wins 5 Losses
At flat stakes: Bet 14 units; Win 0.37 units; ROI 2.6%.

A below target week but always 'tricky' at this time of year moving from hard to clay (Acupulco bets). There were a few surprises during the week - Domachowska's loss but beaten by a better player on the day so no complaints. Gagliardi is my 'whinge of the week' - she lead Serra Zanetti
4-1 in the first set and was 40-0 serving for 5-1. The set went to a tie break!! Gagliardi broke Zanetti but managed to lose the set. Gagliardi was then serving first in the second set (an advantage in tennis), broke Serra Zanetti but went on to lose. This isn't a proper 'whinge' - just an opportunity to make note's about Gagliardi's consistency.

Dubai hardcourt this week - should be some good value opportunities.

Dubai - Day 1
 

Schnyder v Maleeva
Dubai

Fourteenth ranked Schnyder has - despite a few minor hiccups - had a strong start to 2005. Her 14-4 season includes good wins over Golovin and Dementieva and a straightforward win over Maleeva (rank 29) in Sydney. Schnyder's coming off some ordinary form by her standards- she didn't play particularly well in her loss to Kirilenko last week and was fortunate to
get past Na Li the week prior. However her 131/88 hardcourt record reflects her experience and ability and while the overall h2h favours Maleeva 3-2, their 2 hardcourt encounters have gone to Schnyder (the other games predated were also some years ago). The Bulgarian is certainly no easy-beat having put up a good 3-set fight against Molik on Antwerp's indoor carpet a few weeks back and another 3-set battle against the in-form Hantuchova in Qatar last week (note she lost both games). However Maleeva is more of an all rounder than a hardcourt specialist (95/88 on hard) and she lacks a decisive weapon. Her season was also interrupted by a shoulder strain earlier this month (withdrew Tokyo).

Schnyder $1.53 @ 5Dimes
(This is an early line, there maybe better prices).


Notes: A couple of players to be wary of in Dubai: Sania Mirza - last start winner but resuming from an ankle injury that's seen her offcourt for two weeks. Paola Suarez - second start back from a long spell and a bit underdone. Jelena Jankovic scratched from Qatar last week with right shoulder strain. Farina Elia's also been struggling with a right shoulder strain.

Day 1 cont'd
 

Mirza v Kostanic.
Dubai

I'm going to contradict my own advice and back Mirza who is returning from an ankle injury. She played and won in the doubles qualifying yesterday and all reports are she is free of any major problems. I watched an interview on Star and she really is a confident young player."My aim is to win the first round, I am not looking much beyond that at the moment" . . . "The preparations have been going well. My ankle still bothers me, but it is not a major concern". Her opponent Kostanic, though ranked 36th, has had a woeful start to 2005, winning only two matches - one of which was a 3-set affair against wildcard and lowly ranked Delacqua (Australian Open). Kostanic's other win was another 3 set affair against the moderate Camerin. Having said all this Kostanic isn't an easy beat, she's a competent all rounder who has been more consistent in the doubles this season. The prices are close which may reflect injury concerns but I still think there's value. Mirza said the event is very important to her momentum (she won Indian Open) and perhaps if her ankle was too problematic, she wouldn't have added the burden of playing doubles.

Mirza $1.87 @ 5Dimes

Pinnace & 5dimes
 

Hi Marco

I notice that you quote both Pinnacle & 5dimes in your WTA assessments. I only have Centrebet that does WTA and their prices are somewhat shorter than your quotes.

I take it that you actually bet with them and u r Aussie.

I have heard good things about then from other sources. Are u happy with both of them and have you withdrawn funds from them?


thanks
Karla

Day 2
 

Li vs Sugiyama
Dubai

I make the gnarly Na Li a 61.1% favourite in this match-up. Li (ranked 46 - a career high) came through qualifiers by easily beating Muller and Barna and then pipping Black in a close contest. She's young, tenacious and has made a solid start to 2005 by going 11/5 - all on hard. Moreover her record on hardcourts since 2001 is 77/18 and she clearly favours the fast conditions.
Li's ranking has also jumped over 200 places in 6 months while Sugiyama's has been slowly drifiting in the opposite direction. However Sugiyama shouldn't be underestimated because on her day, she's a proven performer. By these standards though, she's had a very poor start to 2005. Her only win in 6
matches came against Stosur last week - a match Stosur lost through sloppy play as opposed to Sugiyama playing well. Sugiyama did improve in her next match against Schiavone and though losing, took the game to 3 sets. Still Li has the momentum and form from qualifying so is in good shape to take the match.

Na Li $1.85 @ 5Dimes


Zheng vs Medina-Garrigues

Zheng (ranked 65) is another played who has performed well in qualifying this week with wins over Ruano Pascual and Camerin - both of whom have similar ratings to Medina-Garrigues(ranked 43). Zheng's had a good season thus far: she won the Hobart hardcourt with wins over Na Li, Dulko, and Asagoe (all reasonable players); she lost in the first round of Aussie Open to the classy Safina but it was a relatively close 3-setter, and she also took Mirza to 3 sets in Hyderabad (Mirza went on to win). In contrast, Medina-Garrigues has won only 1 of her 6 matches this season. To be fair she's had tough draws having come up against the likes of Pierce, Molik and Petrova. Then again Garrigues was beaten by Dulko last week - a player Zheng thrashed in the Hobart final. In short, the conditions should suit the hardcourt specialist and match-ready Zheng.

Zheng $1.47 @ 5dimes


Notes: Douchevina had a great qualifying win over young superstar Ivanovic and may well surprise Dechy who withdrew from Qatar last week with an illness. Always hard coming in cold - but Douchevina's too inconsistent to bet on. Similarly Likhovtseva is way too short in the market - she also withdrew
at late notice with an illness last week. Sfar is capable and appears highly motivated during interviews this week. Would like to play Bovina at the $1.70 but she's only third start back from long injury lay-off so question mark over her match fitness(h2h 7-2 Bovina).

Karla909,

I don't think he's paying any attention to you.

karla

My oversight - was in a hurry and missed your post. Apologies.
5Dimes and Pinnacle best 'outs' for tennis and I've had no problems.
Will take large bets - unlike some - and seem to have solid reputations.
And yes, I'm in Australia.

Day 1 cont'd
 

Bartoli vs Dulko
Dubai

French teenage sensation Bartoli is yet another who has performed well
in qualifying with wins over Talaja, Foretz and Voskoboeva. She's in solid
form this year and has showed considerable fighting spirit and great baseline
play when up against the likes of Sharapova. Bartoli had good showings in Paris and Doha while her opponent Dulko has had mixed results. A good showing in Hobart in January was followed by some very mixed form as demonstrated last week against Medina-Garrigues and her total capitulation to Sharapova.Dulko always seems to play better on the US hardcourt swing so I expect improved resultsin the coming weeks. Despite a slight knee niggle earlier this month (forced retirement), the match-ready Bartoli justifies her odds. I rate her a 71.1% chance.

Bartoli $1.45 @ SportsTab or StanJames
(1.25 hours till game time)

Yeah, all true, but...Dulko is HOT!

And let's face it-that's the only reason we watch women's tennis!

Now, where's Tatiana Golovin???

well done Marcos
 

Excellent work Marcos. 5 from 5.

One last question about Pinnacle if I can be indulgent.

Did u use the Paypal option or the direct deposit through Shanghai. They don't accept direct payments thru my Visa card.

Keep up the good work

Karla

correction
 

Sorry Marco

Pinnacle - should read Netteller (not Paypal)

Update

19 Bets: 14 wins 5 losses
At Flat stakes: Bet 19; Won 3.49; ROI 18.3%.

Slight break as had to have appendics out. Back very soon.

Karla - Neteller option's ok.

Indian Wells
 

A big couple of weeks coming up in the WTA with Indian Wells and Nasdaq
so should be plenty of betting opportunities. This weeks tournament starts
tonight and is 16 hours behind AEST. Website has livescoring:
http://www.pacificlifeopen.com

There's six first round matches tomorrow involving qualifiers that haven't had lines posted yet so I may add extra games later.

Karatancheva v Weingartner
Indian Wells

Bet of the day - Karantancheva is another teenager with heaps of talent. She's 9-3 for the season with good wins over Peer and Linetskya and has a 40/9 hardcourt career record. While many of Karaantancheva's opponents havebeen lowly rated qualifiers, Weingartner - while competent - has had a mixed season and is 85/107 on hard over her career. In fact Weingartner's ranking has been stagnant for over 12 months while her Bulgarian opponent has been moving forward in leaps and bounds. Karantancheva also
made the third round last year being beaten by Sharapova in a hard fought 3-sets - Weingartner didn't play in 2004 and was defeated in first round of qualifiers in 2003.

Karantancheva $1.70 @ William Hill.


Granville vs Irvin
Indian Wells

Granville (rank 87) is having a mixed season, playing ordinarily at
WTA tournaments but winning her last two challenger tournaments -
St Paul and Midlands (both US hardcourts). These include good wins
against the in-form Morigami and up-and-comer Cho in the finals. Irvin
(ranked 71) is, in short, having a dismal year and is 1-4 this season.Her
only win came against the lowly rated Pisnik on clay. Players that have
beaten Irvin include Frazier, Craybas and Haynes all of whom are similar
in class to Granville. Irvin holds the H2H 1-0 but the game was from 2001
and barely rates mention. Both made the fourth round last year though Irvin
entered the tourney in far better form. A close game but Granville to prevail.

Granville $1.70 Gamebookers & 5Dime


Spears vs Kurhajcova

Spears at home and the hardcourt specialist - 86/60 for career - has had a steady 2005 with good wins over Shaughnessy and Craybas and a close loss to the talented Dulko. Spears hasn't played here too often, being knocked out in the first round of qualifiers last year. Kurhajcova made the second round last year but her form this season has been abysmal, going 1-5 with her only win coming on clay. Her record on hard is 43/45 and she definitely prefers the dirt which accounts for most of her ranking. Having said that, she's capable of an upset but it would require a major form reversal. Spears has stated in interviews that this tournament means a lot to her so I expect her motivation to be high. She also won their only H2H, a closely fought Quebec hardcourt match last year.

Spears $1.56 @ 5Dimes


Notes - Steer clear of Kapros who's coming off an injury in Doha 2 weeks ago (Hip dysfunction). If you like
short odds Craybas should demolish her 14-year-old wildcard entry opponent.

Indian wells - Day 1 cont'd
 

Adding a couple of matches involving qualifiers as mentioned in last post.
Lines have now been posted.

Pin v Llagostera-Vives
Indian Wells

Pin's had a couple of solid results from qualifying and should be match ready.
She hasn't done too much this season though had a reasonable tournament in Antwerp and is competent on hard going 72/53 over her career. Her opponent Vives is first up returning from right leg tendonitis which forced her to withdraw from Bogata. She's also more at home on clay and is a more modest 44/38 on hard over her career. Pin with a couple of solid warm up games under her belt should be too much for the underdone Vives.

Pin $1.53 Sportingbet & Sportingodds

Kirilenko v Perebiynis
Indian Wells

Kirilenko's running hot at the moment and deserves to be at short odds. She's had a couple of good matches in qualifying and is in good form going 11-5 this season. This includes wins over Schnyder, Na Li and Shaui Peng - all classy hardcourters and close losses to Hantuchova and Ivanovic. She's 69/28 on hard over her career and has seen her ranking increase more than 30 places this year. Her opponent Perebiynis shouldn't be underestimated as she has the skills to win. However she's had an ordinary 2005 going 2-5 thus far with one of her wins coming on clay. Doesn't seem to play too well on the American hardcourt swing and has a career hardcourt record of 50/52.

Kirilenko $1.40 @ Pinnacle.


Notes: Daniilidou has withdrawn - still suffering inflammed right thumb. Replaced by lucky-loser Bondarenko. Steer clear of Bedanova as first game back since retiring from Ortesi a month ago.

Indian Wells - Day 2
 

Update: 23 Bets, 17 wins, 6 losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 23; Won 4.15; ROI 18%


A tad lucky this morning with Granville and Spears squeaking home but good win to Kirilenko and poor loss for Pin. Yesterday's pick, 15-year-old Karatancheva, plays tonight.


Cho vs Marrero
Indian Wells

I rate up-and-comer Cho as one to watch. She has a good all-round game, fights for every point and has had a good start to the season in going 11/5 (she's risen approx 60 places in the rankings this season). Cho's also an out-and-out hardcourter (97 wins/64 losses) while Marrero is more at home on clay. Marrero's 46/54 on hard and is 1-4 this season and while she has a considerably higher WTA ranking, this is down to her clay court results. Even so, she's still drifted about 20 ranking places this season. Marrero did qualify here last year and went on to reach the third round so she's capable of winning, however she entered last years tournament in much better form.

Cho $1.80 @ Sportodds (and others)



Vaidisova v Washington
Indian Wells

Red-hot teenager Vaidisova versus struggling Washington. The Czech wonderkid is having a strong 2005 (7/3) with impressive wins over Shaughnessy, Groenefeld and Safina - and close losses to Davenport and Shaughnessy (in Memphis). Washington is 4/4 for 2005 with 3 of those wins coming against lowly rated qualifiers in Sydney. Vaidisova is at short odds but still offers value - I rate her a 76.6% chance of winning.

Vaidisova $1.36 @ Sportodds and Gamebookers
(early line - may be better prices later).


Notes: I'll post extra plays as lines become available around 10.30 AEST.

Day 2 - cont'd
 

Haynes v Santangelo
Indian Wells

Hardcourt specialist Haynes playing in her own backyard should have too much for the erratic and somewhat underdone Santangelo. Haynes has made good progress in the ranking s over the past 6 months and has had steady if unspectacular start. She made special mention in interviews about playing well here in front of her 'home' crowd and family who will be in attendance so Hayne's motivation should be high. Santangelo is best labelled erratic as she seldom wins wo games in a row. She surprised everyone by reaching the fourht round of the Australian Open in 2004 but has achieved little since. Santangelo also showed glimpses of her talent at Auckland in January and as a good vollyer and is capable of an upset, but in the end I think Haynes will have too much power.

Haynes $1.87 @ 5Dimes.

Injury Report
 

Late mail - Angela Haynes has picked up a leg injury and may struggle to complete her match against Santangelo. The game starts in half-an-hour and while the bet stands, it has certainly lost its value.

Day 3
 

Update

27 bets: 21 Wins; 6 Losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 27; Won 6.88; ROI 25.4%

Well Haynes managed to do the job despite a few injury timeouts and courtside treatment. Relatively tight matches for Karatancheva, Vaidisova and Cho, but all won through.

Second Round tips posted around 8:30 AEST.

Congrats mate. I had Karatancheva and Vaidisova as well, had a little bit of a scare especially with Karatancheva and her 16 double faults!!

Look forward to your tips tonight. Do you follow the ATP as well? That is my mainstay and it would be good to have someone to bounce ideas off.

I extend my congratulations for a great effort 4/4

the prices for womens tennis sure vary.

Karatancheva 1.70 - william hill
1.46 centerbet
1.57 ladbrooks

Do you find this sort of thing often. Could have bet both sides.

Must get that Pinnacle account organised.

Thanks again
Karla

ps - sparkus8 - I do ATP - see u soon at that thread

Good stuff Karla, I will definitely make a visit to the ATP thred :)

Day 3
 

I expect more variable results today as I back a few match-ready outsiders versus overvalued favourites coming in cold off a bye.

Kirilenko v Bovina
Indian Wells

A closer match than it appears on paper. Bovina is undoubtedly a great talent - you don't rank 15 in the world without being able to play. However I thinks there's a couple of things running agianst her. First she's only played four games this season as she's returning from a long injury layoff. Secondly Bovina's first up at Indian Wells having had a first round bye. Her opponent Kirilenko is a young player of great talent who came through qualifications and Round One without any problems. She's also in good form this season making the QF's in Doha which included a good win against Schnyder. She also performed well in Hyderabad - losing a close SF match to eventual winner Mirza. Her Hyderabad performance also included a good win over Na Li. I still rate Bovina the favourite at 65.9 v 34.1 but I'm willing to take the value on Kirilenko. She may not have Bovina's skill or experience but she has the game to win and a has had a slightly better preparation. Looking for an upset.

Kirilenko @ $3.35 - Pinnacle


Domachowska v Medina-Garrigues.
Indian Wells

Domachowska's coming off a good First Round win over Salerni (who had 2 good wins in qualifying: Castano and Dokic) so should be full of confidence and used to the conditions. Domachowska's also a competent hardcourter going 46/21 over her career, though she's had a mixed start to 2005. A minor shoulder strain at Hyderabad has slowed her down but her comeback has been positive enough. What I do like is her positive attitude which has helped
her rise about places in the rankings over the past 6 months. Her opponent Garrigues has had a shocking start to the season going 0-5 (4 hardcourt, 1 carpet). it must be said that she came up against some class opponents such as Molik, Pretrova and Dulko, but it's hardly ideal preparation for a player who is more at home on clay. That said, Garrigues won't be a pushover but Domachowska should prevail.

Domachowska $1.65 - generally available.


Jackson v Suarez
Indian Wells

Looking fo another upset here. Suarez is a class act returning from a long injury layoff. Her two comeback games were both easy losses to Bartoli (Doha) and Jankovic (Dubai). While a solid hardcourter who has performed reasonably well here before, she's much more at home on clay. Her opponent, the young and relatively inexperienced Jackson, has been slowly climbing the
rankings over the past few months. She's a respectable 46/26 on hard over her career, though a lot of her early games were on the challenger circuit. Good wins over Karatancheva and Frazier in Memphis and a close 3-set loss to Vaidisova means she certainly has the talent to win. A good Round One win
yesterday over Barna should be good preparation for this match-up. I'm not underestimating Suarez, this should be close.


Jackson $2.00 @ Pinnacle.


MarianaDiaz vs Dulko.
Indian Wells

I have this match much closer than the bookies. Both women prefer clay but are competent hardcourters. Dulko made the QF's here last year but had good preparation coming through the 2004 qualifiers. This year she's had a First Round bye and meets an in form DiazOliva who's had the benefit 3 matches here already. These included wins over Hopkins, Drake, and Brandi all of whom are capable players on hard. The H2H stands at 1-1 but with both games being very close. The first was a 3-set qualifier at Indian Wells 2001 while the second saw DiazOliva beat Dulko at this year's Australian Open (where she also put up a good fight against Kuznetsova). I still rate Dulko the favourite at 53.9% v 46.1% so there's a bit of value on the outsider.

DiazOliva $2.30 @ Pinnacle.

Notes. Be wary of Groenefeld who's first game back from injury.

Karla & Sparks
 

Thanks - bit of a streak at the moment but this will flatten out over time.

Karla prices do vary - Bookies don't hold much on WTA so easier to move the odds. Karantacheva was available at $1.67 @ Ladbrokes and elsewhere for quite a few hours so it's more the timing of when you're checking prices and how the market moves. prices will sometimes drift the other way - like Haynes yesterday.
The bets suggested today will all drift in my opinion so get in early. Kirilenko will definitely shorten as will DiazOlivia.

Sparks - don't handicap the ATP - I find it takes enough time to compile my database and run my programs just doing the WTA. Prefer to specialise.

unreal - mate
 

morning marco

woke up to the headline

Kirilenko Upsets Bovina

upset everyone but us.

If it's ok can u give us a bit of background on this. Like how you went overall last year.

Like to bet more but I am very conservative.

thanks to a great start to the day.

managed to get closer to top odds today.

Karla

Day 4
 

Couple of early tips to help people get the early prices. I'll be surprised if these odds last. More games posted later this afternoon.

Cho vs Stosur
Indian Wells

I'm gobsmacked that Stosur is priced so short. Sure she's ranked 47 versus Cho's 113 and sure, she had a good run in January this year at Hobart and Sydney. However Stosur's acheived little since by failing to qualify in Dubai last week and only qualifying in Doha the week prior as a lucky-loser. I also watched her lacklustre loss against an out-of-form Sugiyama - she was so ordianry she handed Sugiyama her first win for the year. Cho's certainly in-form and has had the advantage of a solid first round warm up against Marrero whereas Stosur is coming of the bye. The underrated Cho is no mug on hardcourts with a 97/64 career record, and while a few of these games were on the challenger circuit the same applies to Stosur's 70/57 career record. Having said all this I rate Stosur a marginal favourite at 53.4% vs 46.6% so value is with the outsider Cho. She'll have to play well to win but if Stosur's current form continues Cho's in with a good shout.

Cho $3.00 @ Ladbrokes
(a very early line - may be better prices later - watch the market)

Vaidsova vs Sprem
If I was shocked at Stosur's price then I'm just as shocked at Sprems. I rate Vaidisova a clear favourite here and I'll be surprised if her price doesn't come in. Sprem hasn't played since Antwerp's carpet where she sufferred a lower back injury and had a first round bye so she must be underdone. Her 2005 has gone 4-4 so even prior to her injury she wasn't in great form. Her first game back is against the red hot Vaidisova whose form expolits have been filling the media pages. She's 7-3 for the season and 35/8 on hard over her career. She easily accounted for Washington in the first round, she's risen 60 places in the rankings in the past 6 months (Sprem's been static) and despite lacking experience, she's a tremendous talent. Anything can happen in tennis and Sprem can clearly win, but at these odds Vaidisova is value.

Vaidisova $1.83 at Ladbrokes.
(unfortunately Ladbrokes opened at $2.00 but the lined moved quickly as people like me piled on)

Update
 

Update

31 bets: 24 Wins; 7 Losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 31; Win 10.53; ROI 33.9%

Kirilenko in a cakewalk, Jackson and DiazOliva in squeakers and Domachowska a poor loss. Still, a very good return for the day.

The two games already posted are the only tips today. Prices still available.

Notes:
Further to these games, Sprem has withdrawn from the forthcoming Federation Cup (Croatia v Thailand) so as not to stress her recuperating back injury. Possibly not 100% at the moment as mentioned in tips post. Stosur lost in the doubles today which is hardly a morale boost leading into tomorrow's match with Cho.

For what it's worth, Craybas ($3.10) may go close to beating Likhovtseva but I'm not quite confident enough - both players a bit inconsistent at the moment.

Karla
 

Karla - sorry missed your question this morning. More than happy to answer queries etc but might be easier via email rather than clogging up this thread.
Send through an address if you're happy to do so.