Ratings help!
 

Sorry if this sounds completely stupid, but i am just starting out. I do my regular form analysis each week based on all majour factors formline, barrier (you know the rest). I was just wondering how you guys convert this information to establish price ratings such as those expressed in the ratings challenge? For example if i find a horse that i this is the winner, how do i rate this horse at a price? Furthermore, once i do rate say my top 4 runners at prices i assume that if my prices are below those given by TAB or bookmakers that i back the horse?　Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Tenacious, you need to allot some kind of figures to each of your factors, add the total for all horses in the race then divide each horses total by the race total this will give you a percentage you can convert to odds. Your last statement is correct about backing the horses that you get better prices for than what you rate them at. Some good sites for free horse ratings are ozeform, Tasmanian tote site. Hope this helps and good luck, youll certainly need it.

Tenacious,

First of all, if you can, you should try to make an assessment of how many lengths or kgs ahead of the field your top horse is. Take a look at the thread on this forum called 'Converting Ratings To Prices'. Might help you out. I'll show you an example from today using the pricing method I explain on that thread.

Here are the weight ratings I worked out for the Mornington Cup today:
8 Kounthekash 68
2 Charnwood Green 67.5
5 Fonome 64
3 Cool Trent 61
10 Highclere 61
1 Gunnamatta 60.5
9 Honest Politician 58
7 Garrard 57.5
13 Go Straight Home 57
11 Lord Of The Pines 55
12 Command 'N' Conquer 55
16 Bikkie Tin Blues 54.5
15 Bounty Beat 53.5
6 Big Pat 49
14 Babe Zaharias 48

Next I convert those ratings to points using a table I've created:
8 Kounthekash 100
2 Charnwood Green 90
5 Fonome 40
3 Cool Trent 18
10 Highclere 18
1 Gunnamatta 16
9 Honest Politician 8
7 Garrard 8
13 Go Straight Home 7
11 Lord Of The Pines 5
12 Command 'N' Conquer 5
16 Bikkie Tin Blues 5
15 Bounty Beat 4
6 Big Pat 2
14 Babe Zaharias 1

The total of all the points is 327. Now I divide 327 by each horse's score and round up or down to get a price:
8 Kounthekash $3.25
2 Charnwood Green $3.65
5 Fonome $8.20
3 Cool Trent $18.15
10 Highclere $18.15
1 Gunnamatta $20.45
9 Honest Politician $40.90
7 Garrard $40.90
13 Go Straight Home $46.70
11 Lord Of The Pines $65.40
12 Command 'N' Conquer $65.40
16 Bikkie Tin Blues $65.40
15 Bounty Beat $81.75
6 Big Pat $163
14 Babe Zaharias $327

One thing though. Unlike my example, you don't actually have to work out a rating or a price for every horse if you don't want to. If you are confident that you've sorted out the top 5 or 6 horses, you can just rate those.

Hope all that helps you out in some way. Any questions, just ask.

Plagiarism?.NO?
How is your table different than,say,Don Scotts?

My original table was similar to Scott's (I mentioned that on the other thread), but it certainly wasn't identical and my revised table is more different again.

Hi Tenacious,
In another thread I have posted http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=7676
a spreadsheet that will provide a Statistical Weighting to each Factor ranking, provided you keep records for each Factor your using in your Handicapping you can use my spreadsheet to create a Probability line by using either of two methods from that sheet, i'll detail one using the ROE indicator, as the other is complex but a lot more precise.

Method A) Using the ROE indicator (from the spreadsheet), this is called the Ratio of Observed to Expected.
1. Compute the ROE figure for each ranked runner for each Factor.
2. For each runner MULTIPLY the ROE for each Factor together and then MULTIPLY the final total by 10.
3. This is the Individual Ability rating for each runner.
4. TOTAL all the runners Individual Ability ratings
5. DIVIDE each runners Ind. Ability rating by the TOTAL
6. These are your Projected Probabilities

If you don't have records nor win rates for each Factor you could look at INDEXING each Factor using 60 as the minimum score. an 100 as the highest rating, then computing much along the lines as above

I am completely and utterly confused.

Sportz, i think i have completely misunderstood your system. But are you saying that the highest weighted horse in the race always rates the highest using your method? :S

Lol i know i am talking to myself here just at the moment, but do you mean you allocate 100 points to the actual top weight rated horse as per what it is literally going to be carrying in the race. OR do you establish a weight that you THINK it should be carrying and if so how do you establish that. IE. A horse is going to carry 54kg's on saturday but you think it should be carrying 58kg's? Is that what you are getting at?

No.

It's not a system at all. It's simply a method for pricing horses once you've worked out your final ratings.

Even if you don't work out weight ratings like me, you should try to work out an asessment of how much in front of the field your top rated horse is. Let's say you work out that there are 6 chances in a race. You should then try to put them in order based on how far behind the top rated horse you think they all are. Again using that Mornington Cup from yesterday, here was my top 6:

Top rated - Kounthekash
0.5 kgs behind - Charnwood Green
4.0 kgs behind - Fonome
7.0 kgs behind - Cool Trent
7.0 kgs behind - Highclere
7.5 kgs behind - Gunnamatta

Now, if you use the table I posted yesterday on the thread titled "Converting Ratings To Prices", you can allot points to each of those runners. In this case:

100 Kounthekash
90 Charnwood Green
40 Fonome
18 Cool Trent
18 Highclere
16 Gunnamatta

Now, add up all those points and the total is 282. Divide 282 by each horse's score, round up or down and you get:

$2.80 Kounthekash
$3.15 Charnwood Green
$7.05 Fonome
$15.65 Cool Trent
$15.65 Highclere
$17.65 Gunnamatta

I hope all that helps in some way. Now the hard bit is ctually trying to get the horses into some sort of order for each race. If you want a site with ratings for each run, try Ozeform or the Tasmanian TAB site.

Yes. That's weight ratings. For example, my weight ratings had Alinghi rated on 76.5 kgs yesterday!!! That was 12.5 kgs ahead of the rest of the field.

Read my previous post and you'll get an idea of what I mean.

Tenacious, if you are just starting on this wonderful punting trip you may not be aware that most people rate horses in Kg (forgive me if I'm telling you what you already know). This is (probably) because in handicap races if a horse is better than those it is running against they tend to pile more weight on it's back to slow it down. Hence it seems traditional to say one horse is 5Kg (or whatever) better than another horse. Seems to me it would be more logical to say horse A is 1.5 lengths better than horse B but that's neither here nor there.
What this means is people go through the form awarding bonuses or penalties in Kg for each factor that may affect the outcome of the race. Like if you think barrier 1 is a big advantage give the horse in barrier 1 + 1Kg and maybe the horses in barrier 10 onwards -1Kg. Same for other things, like top jockey +1Kg, bad jockey -1Kg. What you end up with then is a list of weights against each horse. The top one may be 60Kg with the others having weights down to the bottom one at 52Kg for example.
These are the weights that people are now trying to convert to prices for you.

KV

T.S.
If you use TAS TAB ratings,these are yesterdays Ratings and you will need to add Todays Rating eg. Distance (change),WT carried,Jockey,Track.etc.
These would have to be allocated in WT And somehow added to past rating to give a present rating to then price.
Hoping this helps in some way

Ray.

Yeh OK i got it. Thanks to everyone who contributed to the discussion! I assume "weight ratings" are just one way of rating, what are some other ways to 'rate' horses? Also, fair enough you add and deduct weight for each factor but should all horses in the race start at some base weight and if so what should it be?

Cheers

There are many different ways you could do it. Have a try on paper for a while and see which method works well.

Here's a couple of suggestions:

This first one's pretty basic. First, find each horse's rating on the Unitab website:
http://www.tabonline.com.au/
Now divide that rating by 2 to get a score out of 50. Then add bonuses or penalties of up to 2 kgs for the 5 different factors that you personally consider the most important. Things like Jockey & Trainer, Barrier, Recent form, Consistency, Days since last start, Record at track and distance, Record in these track conditions, Going up or down in weight, class, distance, etc etc. You'll end up with a rating figure of up to 60 kgs.

Here's a more traditional weight ratings method you could try. You can find your base rating for each runner by using either the Ozeform site or the Tasmanian TAB site. Personally, I prefer the Tas TAB site:
http://www.tastab.com.au/racebet/fo...num/default.asp
In each horse's form they'll give you a rating for each run in the form of a number like 540 or 655. I simply slip a decimal point in there to make it a weight rating like 54.0 & 65.5. These are the weight ratings I use to find my base rating for each horse. But that's the hard part. Actually choosing which run or runs you should take the ratings from to get your base rating. You could simply take the horse's last run, or perhaps it's best run from the last two, or perhaps it's best run this campaign or perhaps it's best run at this track/distance. Or perhaps a combination of a couple of those. It's up to you. Anyway, once you have your base rating, you can again add bonuses and penalties depending on certain factors. Then the final move is to subtract the amount of weight the horse is carrying over the minimum weight in today's race. After all that you'll end up with your final rating figure.

Hope all that helps in some way. :)

Hey Sportz - like all the info there etc. I've sort of mucked around with different ratings methods , from websites etc. , the question I had for you if you will answer , is how do you get the ratings etc down onto your PC to start with ( I'm presuming you use a PC to do the number crunching ) I have tried to get some from different sites before and found it really time consuming. Not sure if you work etc. or punt full time , so maybe you do have the time.

Any info would be great.

Cheers

Mick

Yes, it is time consuming. I actually have a spreadsheet which I use for rating the main meetings on Saturdays, but for smaller meetings like today, I just use a notebook. After you've done it for a while, you start to get a bit quicker. The secret though is not rating each and every race. NO WAY would I think of doing that. Just too time consuming. Besides, I tend to concentrate on just certain types of races anyway, so why bother rating all of the others. In fact today, I rated just ONE race all day:

NEWCASTLE R7
4 PATEZZA (71.0) $3.60
6 COOL FRONT (69.5) $5.00
5 SIR DEX (67.0) $9.00
3 Nips (66.5) $10.00
2 Sportsman (66.0) $11.25
7 Gabfest (65.0) $15.00

So, why not think about which races you prefer to bet on and only rate those. I prefer Open races between 1400m and 1800m because I find that's the type of race I do best in. I do rate other races too, but those are the ones I really like to concentrate on. On a regular day, I'll normally rate around 1-3 races only and even on big days like Saturdays, no more than about 8-10.

Thanks for that. I've been curious as to how everyone else does their thing. As mentioned I've also done similar things and had a spreadsheet setup , just wondered whether you had some you beaut way of doing it.
I may not be too far off your logic with race types. For me it was no maidens , and anything else where no horse was first up. Just found it hard to gauge first up records. Bit more exposed for sure helps , so it was middle distance and up for me.

Already decided on the races I'm thinking about for tomorrow. I'm definitely looking at Ballina R7 and maybe also Hawkesbury R7 or Wangaratta R5. The Unitab and Tas Tab ratings are up, so I'll start looking at those races now.

I tried mucking about a bit with Hawksbury race 7 - think I had in order
No's 2,4,1,6 - so the 5 winning was disappointing. Mostly because when I looked at the form myself I didn't think it could win. So I thought my ratings were a chance : - )
I only quickly thought up some penalties and bonuses last night and used an average of the ratings from the tassie tab site , and dist beaten etc.
Will need some more tinkering , but quite like the theory , just have to figure out what I think is the most important factors. Out of curiosity , did you rate that race Sportz , if so , what did you get.

Yeah, I rated that race. I got the trifecta in my top 3.

HAWK R7
2 NORTHERN LODGE (49.0) $3.20
4 AGUA CORRIENDO (48.5) $3.55
5 SHERWOOD FOREST (46.5) $5.60
1 Endowment (45.0) $8.00
8 Bronx Queen (44.5) $8.90

Very disappointed with the other race I rated though.

BALNA R7
1 CONCITAIRE (52.0) $4.20
7 PLANET LOVER (50.0) $6.55
6 GOTTA BE GOOD (49.5) $7.40
4 Intermagic (49.0) $8.40
11 Danefull (49.0) $8.40
--------------------------
5 Sensache (47.0) $13.10
8 Russell On (47.0) $13.10
9 Trendy Time (47.0) $13.10

I obviously made a mistake in not giving Lunalana a big enough bonus for recent good form and for great form on the track. It had won 3 and been placed in all 5 starts on the track, so it definitely should have been in the top 5 somewhere. Instead I had it 9th!

It's a learning process.

Good one Sportz.

As you say it is a learning process. I'll certainly be trying to refine mine over the next few weeks. Quite like the idea , hopefully it'll perform OK. Also need to find a way to do it quicker : - )

Gonna try MV race 2 & 7 for tomorrow nite. Will certainly be weighting track perfomances more there.

Do you actually bet with this system and if so how does it go ??
( you may have mentioned this before but I'm pretty new on here )

Yes, I do bet on these races, but I'm taking it easy until I think I've got it worked out well. I've really only been doing this for a couple of months, so it's all a bit experimental. Picked up the trifecta and first 4 on the Newcastle Newmarket yesterday, one race where the ratings really went well. Did very well on Saturday at Caulfield too. I'll try to have a look at those M.Valley races you mentioned and see what I come up with.

I had them in the wrong order for the first four yesterday , ************.

No prob if you can't do those races , just be interesting to see what you get. compared to me , esp since you're a bit further down the track ( pardon the pun ) with it than I am.

Cheers

Let's see how long it takes me. I'll start on those two races now.

I'm at work at the moment , I'll be leaving about 10 and I'll be doing those races when I get home tonite. I'll put mine on here after that.

Moonee Valley R2 is personally one that I might not be looking at, but I've had a go and come up with this:

2 FASHION SHOOT (53.0) $2.10
3 TANJIL MIST (49.0) $5.20
4 TELSA (48.0) $6.50
1 SHE'S A NIGHTMARE (45.0) $14.85
--------------------------
8 Ollie Cheval (43.5) $23.10
5 My Lady Gaila (43.0) $26.00
7 Roquette (38.5) $52.00
6 Wal's Princess (29.5) $208.00

That's rated for a good track. I personally thought She's A Nightmare might be rated higher than 4th, but she seems to prefer wet tracks.

Mooney Valley R7 looks very close:

2 DONBODINE (54.5) $4.95
6 OUR COURT (53.5) $6.20
9 OUR SPUR (53.0) $6.90
1 BENEVOLE (51.5) $9.90
10 ISLE OF MAJORCA (51.5) $9.90
4 HONG KONG CHERI (51.0) $11.00
--------------------------
3 Dynamic Danzer (49.0) $17.70
11 Lacristi Express (49.0) $17.70
12 Bridges Of Babylon (48.5) $20.65
13 Walla Walla (45.0) $55.10
5 French Tempo (40.5) $124.00
7 Jetset Lass (38.0) $165.35
8 Promulgate (38.0) $165.35

Again, that's for a good track. Any rain would change things.

Here's another couple of races I've looked at:

DUBBO R8
5 JUERGA (48.5) $3.05
3 AVENUE TOLDA (45.0) $6.80
4 RED LEADER (43.5) $9.55
7 JOFFA DENARO (43.5) $9.55
8 THE LADY HUSSEY (43.5) $9.55
6 SWEEPERS DREAM (43.0) $10.90
--------------------------
1 Talee Special (39.5) $30.60
11 Gold Carriage (39.0) $34.00
2 Mister Daylight (38.0) $38.25
10 Mel Storm (36.5) $51.00
9 So Tough (33.0) $76.50

Not sure about that one. I agree with the number 5 being on top, but a bit surprised to see numbers 1 & 2 so far down.

M.VALLEY R4
1 STEELWORKER (59.5) $1.95
3 GOVERNOR MACQUARIE (56.0) $4.30
2 LAMPARO (49.5) $24.25
4 GOLDEN TENDER (49.5) $24.25
5 MOON COIN HARRY (49.5) $24.25
7 BOLD DECEIVER (48.5) $27.70
-------------------------
9 Pre Commitment (47.5) $32.35
6 Kaarston (45.5) $48.50
8 Only Joking (42.0) $64.70
10 Bridge Breaka (41.0) $97.00
13 Brevitas (39.5) $194.00
12 Muckaduck (39.0) $194.00
11 Brut (38.0) $194.00

Steelworker and Governor Macquarie rated well ahead of the rest of the field there. Not sure what the odds will be, but Steelworker will probably be favourite after it's last run.

mickmc,

Here are the final ratings I worked out. I personally don't think I'll be worrying about MVal R2, but the other 3 races could perhaps be worth a bet.

M.VALLEY R2
2 FASHION SHOOT (53.0) $2.00
3 TANJIL MIST (49.0) $5.00
4 TELSA (48.0) $6.25
1 SHE'S A NIGHTMARE (45.0) $14.30
--------------------------
5 My Lady Gaila (43.0) $25.00
7 Roquette (38.5) $50.00
6 Wal's Princess (29.5) $200

M.VALLEY R4
1 STEELWORKER (59.5) $1.80
3 GOVERNOR MACQUARIE (56.0) $4.00
2 LAMPARO (49.5) $22.50
4 GOLDEN TENDER (49.5) $22.50
5 MOON COIN HARRY (49.5) $22.50
6 KAARSTON (45.5) $45.00
--------------------------
8 Only Joking (42.0) $60.00
10 Bridge Breaka (41.0) $90.00
13 Brevitas (39.5) $180.00
12 Muckaduck (39.0) $180.00
11 Brut (38.0) $180.00

M.VALLEY R7
2 DONBODINE (54.5) $4.20
6 OUR COURT (53.5) $5.25
9 OUR SPUR (53.0) $5.85
1 BENEVOLE (51.5) $8.40
10 ISLE OF MAJORCA (51.5) $8.40
--------------------------
11 Lacristi Express (49.0) $15.00
12 Bridges Of Babylon (48.5) $17.50
13 Walla Walla (45.0) $46.65
5 French Tempo (40.5) $105.00
7 Jetset Lass (38.0) $140.00

DUBBO R8
5 JUERGA (48.5) $3.05
3 AVENUE TOLDA (45.0) $6.80
4 RED LEADER (43.5) $9.55
7 JOFFA DENARO (43.5) $9.55
8 THE LADY HUSSEY (43.5) $9.55
6 SWEEPERS DREAM (43.0) $10.90
--------------------------
1 Talee Special (39.5) $30.50
11 Gold Carriage (39.0) $33.90
2 Mister Daylight (38.0) $38.10
10 Mel Storm (36.5) $50.80
9 So Tough (33.0) $76.25

These are the races I'll be looking at as far as ratings are concerned tomorrow:
Caul R5, R6 & R8, Rose R7, R8 & R9, Doom R5 & R6, Chel R5

I might also consider Caul R3 & R4 and Rose R6.

Got a few different to you Sportz.Esp MR7 , ************ hell - they're all over the place : - ) Wonder if I've made a typo somewhere : - )

I really need to streamline this , it's taken a fair while to do it.

MV R2

2 (54.1)
4 (53.8)
3 (52.7)
5 (49.5)
8 (48.8)

MV R7

1 (58)
2 (56.8)
3 (55.3)
12 (55.3)
10 (55.1)
4 (51.9)
6 (51.6)
11 (50.7)

I've found that simplicity is best. Keep things as simple as possible, and try to stick to the same basic method each time. After a while, you should be able to cut down the time it takes to rate a race.

In R2, number 8 is scratched and in R7, numbers 3, 4 & 8 are out.

I just finished rating Race 1 at Caulfield tommorow. I am following information you gave me Sportz but have tweaked slightly. I give penalties in increments of 0.25kg to give a hgiher level of accuracy. I think we are expecting rain so i rated for both a good track and a rain affected track. I will post for Good track.

(6) Paris Zero - 66.75
(11) Show us your legs - 65.5
(9) Bella Feline - 64.25
(3) Ice dancer - 62.5
(4) Palace dawn - 59

Cheers

Yes. I hope the rain doesn't come early. I've rated tonight's races for a good track.

Hey Sportz, out of curiosity, who is your tip out of Domesday and Flying Pegasus in the first at rosehill? I am thinking along the lines of the latter. Domesday for second and Written Tycoon for third.

Sorry, but I can't really help you. I have a blackbook tip for Domesday, but I do agree that Flying Pegasus has a big show, and I reckon Written Tycoon has a chance of upsetting both of them. I'll just watch that one I think.

Yeah, I reckon I've probably got number 1 down too low in my ratings. My own personal opinion is something like this: 2-1-6-10-9.

I actually haven't looked at the fields as I would normally , it's on the figures alone. I'm at work at the mo - so when everybody goes home , I'll get the paper out and see what I would do without the ratings. Hopefully nothing : - )

As for the Domesday,Flying Pegasus race , I think Written Tycoon might be a big chance of beating the other 2. Should be a good race , as with you , I'll be watching only I think