Oakleigh Plate
 

Just wondering if anyone had any thoughts on this race? can Fastnet Rock win carrying the 57kgs? Interested to hear peoples opinions.

Taikun for me. As for FNR's 57 kg, I doubt a 3yo has ever been given top weight in this race before. Can't see him improving on his 1st up rating under these conditions. Legally Bay is a chance on her best form as well.

Legally Bay and Foreplay for me. Speed will be furious in this race with Lilando, DTT, Alizes, and Strikeline all up there, so looking towards a swooper. Legally Bay is a class act who should've nearly won the Australia Stakes last year first up. Foreplay is the fit horse of the field racing in great fashion down on the minimum.

I wouldnot write off Fastnet Rock in this race sure he has 57kg but I don't see alot of dangers in this race one would be Lilando he ran great in the Lightning and gets weight relief here the other would be Foreplay I amnot overly excited about anything else in the race to be honest. I still think Fastnet Rock will go extremely close if he doesn't win the race anyway he is just a class horse.

the trainer of cape of good hope paid fastnet rock a big compliment after his horse won the group 1 at the valley last weekend ......he said cape of good hope's win showed just how good fastnet rock was when he beat him in the lightening ......

Alizes is a brilliant sprinter, should be on the pace if not leading, hopefully will be 2 lengths clear on the turn, hopefully Lilando gets burnt off, and she should win by 3/4 of a length in the time 1.03.01

But should rain fall, forget everything I just said

Will Fastnet Rock have the turn of foot with 57 on board?

He hasnt before with less weight.

With the rail out 6 metres, i agree with Mr. Ed, the pace should burn at the front and set up an oppurtunity for some charging runs down the straight.

I think it is a very difficult race IMO.

I tried to find something to beat the Rock but can't..he's a big horse so the weight won't be a problem..doesnt really matter where he settles either..
wouldn't be taking odds on but anything above that is value..

He will be very hard to beat Mav. $2.60 on sportstab probably the best you'll get, can't see any scratchings either so shouldn't be deductions.

Might take a nibble at that.....but with all this talk about the weight he has to carry ect..there might be a move for Lilando ..and bookies might gamble with him...so i'll save the serious stuff till i see what happens..

Scary there for a bit..but what a win....
Drinks are on me :)

watched the video just before and Legally Bay was very unlucky,,was full of running on the turn but was squeezed out of a run by the rock..still wound up again and was close up....huge run...

lilando apparently bled during the race - a gutsy performance to hang on as well as he did.
By the way did anyone have the confidence to take the Rock with the field in a trifecta? Invest $90 collect $3400(Unitab)!!

Yeh legally bay should have gotten closer but she paid enourmous for the place 30.00 and 6.40 was a great price, Foreplay on the other hand was drastic unders at only around $6 so i didn't even take him. Great win by the Rock, congrats Mav, but i still think Alinghi will crush him in the Newmarket, even more so after that race.

you're right Mr Ed ...the Rock never looked comfortable...Alinghi looks good...
better check the early odds,,,
always back my selection with the field plus other combos.. 1st4's, trebles and doubles if i can....usually up to $200 .. i don't in small fields though but still look at the trebles..

Exotics are seemingly taboo among pro punters but i don't see why ..there can be huge value in trifecta's and especially Trebles..i've only recently concentrated on trebles and found them huge overs,,,,especially if you have a special in atleast one of the legs....
i'm not one for place betting..but am looking at them,,especailly considering Legally bay's place price and mahtoum...

good result saturday ,,,