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-   -   Pre post odds (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=7858)

DR RON 3rd March 2005 07:56 AM

Pre post odds
 
Can you guys tell me the best web sites to get the most accurate pre post odds from for each state, and when there first avaiable? Thanks. The accuracy of the odds being the key, that is why different sites would probably be more accurate for different states.

Duritz 3rd March 2005 08:11 AM

IAS put up a pre post market on Wed and Sat, which has to be accurate because they are laying those odds, that's always a good guide. I am not sure if they put them up on the other days.

Other than that, I too would like to know a good reliable pre-post.

Mark 3rd March 2005 08:55 AM

I don't think one exists, and if it does I haven't been able to find it.

Chrome Prince 3rd March 2005 10:55 AM

The prepost market at Tabform (WA TAB) is up on Friday for Saturday racing and is reasonably accurate of the order of chances, but the prices are a little off key. I would suggest deducting a percentage from the first three in the market.

Other than that, I too would like a reasonably close market guide or even method for predicting it. There must be a method, as the bookies frame a market.

La Mer 3rd March 2005 11:05 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by DR RON
Can you guys tell me the best web sites to get the most accurate pre post odds from for each state, and when there first available? Thanks. The accuracy of the odds being the key, that is why different sites would probably be more accurate for different states.


For the most accurate prices for Sydney & NSW provincials go to:

http://home.iprimus.com.au/marclambourne/

He works as the price assessor for Robbie Waterhouse and has appeared on Racing Retro on Sky. Very knowledgeable, very good.

DR RON 3rd March 2005 02:53 PM

Thanks guys, I guess I am not the only one who wants an accurate prepost assessment.

DR RON 3rd March 2005 03:09 PM

While I am on the subject,do any of the guys with databases of previous results have both the prepost and final prices included? if so could you please supply some figures, I guess something like a average ratio between the two or something similar. any figures you could come up with would be great. Malcolm Knowles mentioned in one of his little books some sort of ratios that you can apply. Unfortunately my copy has dissapeared into a black hole in my cupboard never to be seen again. a bit like the bermuda triangle.

Top Rank 3rd March 2005 03:45 PM

Duritz is on the right track with IAS, because you can take those prices at the time. Some may say that they will be a little shorter because they are so early, but you can just as easily work out the percentage he is betting to.

However accurate you think a pre-post market is, it still has got to be some person/s opinion on the race and not a direct reflection of where the money is on the race. I agree Mark Lambourne is good but his markets are his thoughts and can differ, on occasions, greatly from what the market will actually be.
I don't quite understand the interest in pre-post markets, they are just an early guide.

Having said that, Dr. Ron if you can work a winning formula using them, go for it.

Good Luck

DR RON 3rd March 2005 04:18 PM

As I dont have alot of time to devote to the whole package as it were I would sooner dedicate most of my time to the betting side of things as I think I am better at that than the actual selections side of it and if I can get a reasonably accurate early line on things and save myself the time of rating a race then I may be better off. If I come up with anything substantial I will post it for all to see.

purpleheart68 6th March 2005 03:43 PM

Imo you are all barking up the wrong tree.Every paper has its own priceframers(supposedley bookies)and its own tiptsters,but how far in advance do they have to frame these markets,without any knowledge of scratchings,jockeys,track conditions,track bias,etc.?What you should be looking at is the first 5 lines of horses ,market wise that is,ignoring the prepost odds.Horses on the first 5 lines of betting statistically win 80% of all races.
If you look at the first 5 lines,you can then begin to do your ratings,form study,whatever,however,I would suggest that you totally ignore the newspaper prices.They are usually so far off the mark its a joke.Look at the horses on the first 5 lines of betting then frame your own market.

DR RON 13th March 2005 06:56 PM

Purpleheart, while you are right about the prepost order being more accurate than the prices, I am just using them as a starting point to give me some idea about what price they are likely to open at. Thia brings me on to my next step and that is to work out a way to judge whether a horse is likely to ease or firm in the betting. Obviously if I can do this then I may be able to pinpoint the right time/price to place my bet. Does anybody have any thoughts that may point me in the right direction? I think the top rated in the tipsters polls would more likely firm in the betting, especially if it is a clear cut first place, and am using the poll positions to try and guess what the market might do. If I can get the best price most of the time it could make the difference between a profit and a loss

By the way I see yesterday there were many winners from the top 4 or 5 in the prepost that started much better than their prepost prices..


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