Tuesday March 8
 

Gday All..

Back again for another day... let's see how we go..

MACKAY

Race 1 - TOOHEYS HCP (C4)
3 $1.9 EXPRESS MESSENGER
1 $3.5 DUSTY'S MAGIC
4 $6.1 TUSCAN ILLUSION
5 $8.1 CHOSEN CALIBRE

Race 2 - CORPORATE EXPRESS HCP (C6)
2 $1.8 POINTY STICK
4 $3.2 EXPRESS FORCE
3 $7.5 LARCENY
1 $10.0 PROUD BUCK

Race 3 - Q R S E- X X X X GOLD HCP (C3)
2 $1.9 FIRE ANT
4 $3.5 DICTATE PLAY
3 $6.1 RAIN KING
1 $10.8 CHIEF EAGLE EYED

Race 4 - HARRUP PARK COUNTRY CLUB (C1)
7 $2.7 QUALO STAR
2 $3.6 FLUFFIES REEF
3 $6.4 LORD GRANGE
9 $11.1 ALITIES

Race 5 - CORPORATE EXPRESS HCP (C5)
6 $1.9 YA WAHEED
7 $4.4 TYCOON CHARLIE
5 $7.8 WISE THOUGHTS
4 $10.3 SCHOONER OR LATER

Race 6 - MAGUIRES HOTEL MDN HCP
10 $3.0 CHARLEE BUKIT
2 $3.0 EXPLOSIVE GAL
9 $5.4 HIT AND MIST
4 $9.5 MAJOR MICK

Race 7 - WIN TELEVISION HCP (C2)
6 $3.3 PERUGINE STAR
9 $4.4 KENDEL FLYER
5 $6.0 SHE'S VICTORIOUS
1 $10.4 WITLACE
8 $10.4 DOTSWOOD

Race 8 - Q R S E DAILY MERCURY HCP
9 $2.2 CHIEF BULLI
12 $4.0 THE FALCON
4 $7.0 MIGHTY STRONGHOLD
13 $9.4 GLEN IDOL

MILDURA

Race 1 - CUP EVE CRUISE HCP (C2)
6 $2.6 ROYAL PINE
5 $3.5 MALA MATZA
4 $4.7 SPACE BUBBLE
1 $6.2 POLIPHILI
3 $10.9 MILLIE THE TILDA

Race 2 - EASTER POWERSPORTS MDN PLATE
7 $2.2 EARNETTE
2 $3.0 GERINEJAY LAD
1 $7.0 BROWN BUBBLER
3 $9.3 HITSKI

Race 3 - MILDURA GOLF CLUB MDN PLATE
7 $2.2 LADY MONASH
8 $3.9 TEATIME TATTLE
6 $6.8 JUST TAHNEE
2 $9.1 BLUE GARDENIA

Race 4 - HARVEY WORLD TRAVEL HCP (C1)
8 $3.1 SCENTUM
3 $4.1 LADY KISEKI
9 $5.5 KALA CHARM
2 $7.3 FACADE
6 $9.6 WILLIAM HENRY

Race 5 - TOOHEYS NEW HCP
9 $2.6 CROP
11 $4.7 I AM THE MAN
7 $6.2 TORFILA
6 $8.2 POLYESTER BOY
1 $10.9 PICK POCKETER

Race 6 - TRENTHAM ESTATE HCP (C4)
4 $2.2 MARLBOROUGH GIRL
7 $3.8 NOBLESSE
1 $6.7 MER BEBE
6 $9.0 TOPAVIC

Race 7 - CUP CARNIVAL JULY 22-24 HCP-C1
1 $4.5 FINITE
4 $4.5 BLEVANNE
9 $4.5 MISS STARNEE
7 $6.0 BRITAIN DRIVE
10 $8.1 CHARLES HENRY

Race 8 - HAEUSLER'S FARM SUPPLIES MDN
9 $2.1 WHITTIER MISS
2 $2.8 BLIND MAN'S BLUFF
6 $6.6 A LIL LADY
4 $11.8 LEVERET

PORT LINCOLN

Race 1 - NORTHERN'S PLUMBTEC MDN PLATE
1 $2.0 DEVLONE
2 $3.6 MILITARY TATTOO
8 $6.4 AMYJAYE PEARL
4 $8.5 DIRTY DAKS

Race 2 - PARNELL MOGAS HCP (C3)
6 $2.2 RAPTORETTE
3 $3.8 SUMMERGO
1 $6.7 KING OF THE STALLS
4 $9.0 OXFORD ANNIE

Race 3 - C S R BUILDING HCP (C5)
6 $2.0 FEAR REIGN
5 $3.6 KWA HERENI
2 $6.3 SEA RANSOM
4 $8.4 EAGLE JUAN

Race 4 - CADBURY SCHWEPPES HCP (C1)
1 $2.4 URALLA
2 $4.2 MACHENGA
8 $5.6 FAST TAN
5 $7.4 WEST END ECHO

Race 5 - SUPA CHEAP HCP
2 $1.9 RYKO
1 $4.5 BAUDIN
4 $7.9 GREY NIPPER
6 $10.5 BROOKMAN
7 $10.5 KEEP GOING

Race 6 - W. COAST INSURANCE BROKERS-C2
10 $4.3 MARCOZA
3 $5.8 SANDVIEW
7 $5.8 JESTARR HAWK
11 $7.7 LITTLE MISS LINA
1 $10.3 BIG RIPPLER
9 $10.3 MIRACLE GOLD

Race 7 - AIRLINES OF S A HCP (C3)
9 $2.5 JON'S ACCOUNT
2 $4.5 RIVER CHI
3 $6.0 DIGBURY
4 $7.9 SIMONDE
6 $10.5 DIAD

Race 8 - COMPLETE BUSINESS SERV. MDN
1 $2.6 DON QUISTADOR
8 $3.5 CENTRE GAZE
7 $6.3 THEWHOLESHEBANG
6 $11.0 SOVEREIGN MISS
9 $11.0 JODAFOX

WYONG

Race 1 - ORGANIC CROP PROTECTANTS MDN
15 $3.2 GOLDEN DRAKE
7 $4.3 CHIMING IN
1 $5.7 EAGLE OWL
8 $7.7 RAZZOTANO

Race 2 - EASTERN TURFCARE HCP (C1)
2 $2.3 CHEERS FOR JAKE
1 $3.1 NORTHWOOD
5 $4.1 GOOD SAMARITAN
6 $9.7 BARACHEER

Race 3 - PATON FERTILISER MDN PLATE
6 $3.2 ABERGAVENNY ANGEL
4 $4.3 SATURN
7 $5.8 FIFONELLA
11 $7.7 THUNDERCLAP
8 $10.1 LEADLIGHTING

Race 4 - MACLEAN-PARSONS EQUIPMENT (C2)
7 $3.7 CHAMPONY
1 $4.9 ROSE OF KINGS
8 $6.6 HERBATOME
3 $6.6 MEMORIZED
4 $8.8 EVERY DREAM

Race 5 - GREENS HORTICULTURE GP. HCP-C1
6 $2.6 BIRUBI POMP
7 $4.6 DELTA EAGLE
5 $6.1 CHUNKY BELLA
2 $8.0 OUR LIAM
10 $10.6 PAINT BY NUMBERS

Race 6 - MACLEAN'S AUSSIE FLAGS HCP-C6
5 $4.0 LOUP ROUGE
8 $5.3 GOLD DECK
9 $5.3 ATTACHE
6 $7.2 GOLD AGAIN
11 $9.6 LIFELINE EXPRESS

Race 7 - MACLEAN'S LINE MARKING HCP-C3
9 $3.7 MY JOEY
3 $4.9 HAIYAKU
12 $6.6 MYALLA STAR
2 $8.8 FILMARK
8 $8.8 LA BOCA

Race 8 - NUTURF PTY LTD MDN HCP
2 $3.3 DE RIGUEUR
3 $4.4 BLUE MISTRAL
5 $4.4 BRILLANTE FILLETTE
4 $7.8 PRIMA BID
6 $10.3 FLYFORCE

Hi XPTDRIVER.
 

Just experimenting with your rating and pricing structure.
Be interesting to see if it works.
P.LINCOLN
Race 1 horse 1
race 4 horse 1
WYONG
race 2 horse 1
Race 8 horse 2
MILDURA
Race 6 horse 4
Race 8 horse 2
Cheers.
darky.

Gday Darky...

Ok.... I will watch and learn :) I am not sure what I am looking at or for tho .. I am intrigued

HI AGAIN XPTDRIVER.
 

I wondered if I looked at your TOP RATED AT $2.80 +
then looked at those on the DFS rated NSW TAB that were
TOP OF BEST FORM PANEL
TOP OR SECOND IN RECENT FORM PANEL
IF SECOND ON RECENT FORM PANEL MUST BE TOP ON DISTANCE PANEL.

Be interesting to see if it works.
Frankly, I have always liked your work and looking for the best way to use your ratings.
Cheers.
darky.

**************************************************

Gday Darky..

oh ok I am with ya now... I like the DFS form I find it pretty reliable..

I once used to throw the poll points in to get to my rating figure, but havent done so for a long while..

Thanks for the kind words and I hope you mayb have hit on something there with your idea..

having a good day today so far with Good Samaritan and sea Ransom saluting....both recent bookers.
Also have Calais Bound but cant get decent odds about him..Our liam is odds on and have Quesidilla in the last
Some smart horses in Calais bound race so unless i get 10/1 or better no bet..because i think he's better over 1400m ..but this race should be run at a cracker and he'll be running on..
Our Liam looks great but wont take odds on..

Interesting gossip on Fireant ...the owners couldnt sell him down here and were asking $500 ...out of desperation they sent him up there and he's won a couple of races allready...really nice people own him and its good to see battlers get a break every now and then..to bad he was scratched today..he was right in this..

Hi X.

noticed Wyong Race 7 you dont rate Chevington ,,is it because of the 1350m ? because he won well last start..

and with Pushpig ...good record 2nd up,, good association with Jay and raced in way harder races than this..

I think its a good betting race..a great trifecta race..

Gday maverick,,

Because my ratings are pretty mechanical, they sometimes throw up some strange strange ratings.. sometimes the strange ones romp in at 30/1... that's the punt.. My ratings take into account weight differences between indvidual runners.. in this race Chevington is 2.5 (equal top weight) over the limit.. I know it is a compressed weight spread.. so it is penalised accordingly, whereas horses on the limit are given a tick for being on the limit.. I think that by using weight this way, brings up some of the 'on the limit' horses and they are usually at value prices. There are other variable in play as well..

Having said that, I cannot argue with your logic in this race.. I am not entirely comfortable with how this race has come out.. Also there was another very very dodgy race at Mildura ( a very very ordinary Open) where I ended up with Crop on top.. that was the weight variable that pushed it to the top... it was on the limit whereas the spread of weights was 6 kilos sometimes this is the one rating variable that brings in the profits.. other days it can cost me..
Hope that explains things a bit.. Having said that, whilst the weight difference from the limit is important it is not the only variable I use to arrive at my figures

Yep..understand X

Is McKeon the Beadman of Nth Qld ?? If he was on anything else it wouldv'e been 20/1...doesnt like the wet doesnt like the distance.....
should be thankfull i didnt have a go .but still feel like i missed the boat on Our Liam,,,
Oh well....go Quesadilla and PushPig..i just love that name...

Gday Maverick...

I think in the long run you are wiser to leave those real real shorties (Our Liam) alone... the old saying is a wise one i reckon in MOST cases... odds on look on.. Ofcourse there is the odd exception to the rule... Grand Armee last sat springs to mind..

How many more ods on pops are gunna win today? Been takin them on and have been getting creamed.. ah well ... where's the next race... hang on protest Wyong... there could be a god after all ;)

If you mean, because he's popular and rides a lot of winners, then yes. I was on Explosive Gal. That was my first bet today in Mackay. Never in danger really.

Surely you didn't bet against Rose Of Kings, Our Liam & King Of The Stalls as well???

Pushpig cost me like the Pushpig i divorced last year...this time the bitch only got $20 ;) ...dont know why Jay sat 3 wide the whole way ...
knew there was going to be value in the tri...just to hard to get..

sometimes you hate the beadmans ,mckeons , ryans and hokias riding your horses because you know they'll be unders..then on the other hand a small priced winner is better than a long priced loser...

isnt Bowditch riding well....stick with him through the carnival,,,

Didnt Our Liam win well...going places that horse..

Hope quesidilla wins...have a few tris and 1st4s going..

i remember last time i went for the 1st4 up the in Nth Qld in the last race i got it...and was the only 1 on Unitab to do it.....still have the ticket :) going to frame it oneday.

still a win today ..regardless..
can't wait for tomorrow...some nice races ..and have a few nice bookers racing

And as with Darren Beadman, I like backing Gavin McKeon in the last race. Very nice price too. You beauty!!! Wasn't expecting it to pay that much. :)

ahhhhhhh !!

isnt it funny sometimes that the difference between a $2000 profit and a $200 profit is a nose..... :(

thought he had it there for a sec...still a huge run..was wide the whole way..

Dam Beadman wannabees......i didnt rate that donkey..had slipstream and Quessa on top..in everything....

Gday Sportz,

It's pretty simple really..... Odds on win.... I lose... with very few exceptions, you won't see me cheering odds on winners... Over time.. I know that i am right, they had a good day today is all

I'm not necessarily saying you should bet ON them, just that it seems risky to bet AGAINST them. Those 3 horses as well as Roadhog all looked like sure things. If you didn't want to back them, couldn't you just leave the race?

First race at Mildura, odds on...lost.
First race at Mackay, odds on ...lost.
First race at Port Lincoln, odds on...lost.

In early & out early.

First race at Mildura, only 6 runners.
First race at Mackay, only 5 runners.
First race at Port Lincoln, only 6 runners.

I wouldn't even think of betting on races like that, unless it was to do the old 'back the whole field' trick, which isn't as stupid as it might sound in fields of 6 or less (especially the first race of the meeting).

Gday Sportz,

and there's the rub... Find me a field of 12 or so with a TRUE odds on fav and I will be ya drink next time I am in Sunny (*choke*) Mackay.. True Odds on favs tend to present in smallish fields..

I actually took odds on on Saturday.. with Grand Armee.. that was just put in take out.. it was not in question.. the horse would have had to have been shot in the straight not to win.. Now NONE of those horses that won today, are within a bulls roar of a horse like Grand Armee, but people are prepared to take the same sort of shorts about them .. and that is where I tend to make my money.. I know a stack of them won today... but my day wasn't all bad there were a couple of nice priced winners during the day and some well backed horses bit the dust .. But over time, If people keep taking odds on they will eventually go broke... and people like Mark and myself will quite gladly take their money... I would be interested if anyone can provide info that shows odds on actually win over time... I am positive that it doesn't.. but as ever will stand corrected if need be.. In my opinion to take odds on the horse has to have pretty well no oposition.. That doesn't happen to often otherwise we would all be miliionaires and all the Tabs would be closed, bookies would be riding pushbikes.....

I have bet 4 in a field of six before today and managed to back the winner at about 18 buck from memory, so what you say is pretty right about small fields.. but that was a pretty arsey bet I reckon..

xpt,

Normally sunny up here, but put on a race meeting and down it comes. :D
No real problems today though.

Am I right in saying that you bet in just about every race? Because certainly if someone backed every single odds-on chance that ever came up, they would definitely lose, but I'm sure there's probably someone out there making a living by picking and chosing only the best ones. A good example was Alinghi a couple of weeks ago. I thought she was brilliant value. She was a total certainty. And I think that was a field of around 13 or 14.

By the way, today in fields of 6 or less there was just 1 successful odds-on fav from 5 races. In fields of more than 6 runners, 6 winners from 6.

I agree with you Sportz...you know me I like value about a horse..
taking the short odds like i have with FNR and Snitzel and even Regal Roller the other day were once upon a time frowned at by me...
But value is value...i still like my long shots as you can see...Quessadilla today was 10/1 ..

value is in the eye of the beholder (or something like that) :)

Yes, the question is not so much what price a horse is, but does it in fact deserve to be that price or do you think it should be shorter or longer? For instance, on the weekend, Celtric Trial and Regal Roller weren't odds-on, but I reckon they probably should have been.

Sunday night (our time) there was a 2 horse race in the UK. One at around $1.12, the other at around $8. No prizes for guessing which one bolted in.