AUSTRALIAN CUP - 2000M [Group 1] 12 Mar 05 - Flemington
 

1 CASUAL PASS Mathew Ellerton
2 ELVSTROEM Tony Vasil
3 LAD OF THE MANOR (NZ) Roger Hoysted
4 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman
5 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman
6 NIAGARA FALLS Peter G Moody
7 WINNING BELLE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse

Weights
 

No Horse Trainer Weight
1 ELVSTROEM Tony Vasil 58
2 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman 58
3 CASUAL PASS Mathew Ellerton 58
4 LAD OF THE MANOR (NZ) Roger Hoysted 58
5 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman 55.5
6 WINNING BELLE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 55.5
7 NIAGARA FALLS Peter G Moody 55.5

Can the Diva do it with the extra distance. History suggests no, brain says no, heart says maybe. What are everyones thoughts?

Cant see the distance being a problem
i think the result will be same as last time only reversed with the diva winning
cheers

"Heart says maybe"

My heart says Makybe!

The Diva, a special, but only if its not too hot and the track is not too hard.

and Elvis is not to good :)

Has Elvis any more improvement ? he seemed pretty wound up even first up...Makybe has more improvement...I'm jumping on if i get the right odds.

I needed a nudge, and you blokes have given it. I will jump on the diva. By th way maverick, What do you consider the right odds on makybe?

Hi TS i hope to get better than the 2.50 i can get now...if the public support the King i'm hoping the price will get better but i dont have hopes...i don't see it going down (unless it rains) so i'm willing to wait..

Yeh spot on Mav that was my assesment, that Elvis was tuned to peak first up, and he probably doesn't have much improvement left in him, whereas Makybe will have derived great benefit from her 2 runs and be close to her prime for this. The extra distance, Niagara Falls ensuring a solid clip, and back to Makybe's fav track will turn the result around IMHO.

Niagara won't necessarily ensure a quick pace.

Don't assume Elvstroem won't handle Flemington as well as he does Caulfield, he does and he will. Elvstroem is a star. No question.

That being said, Makybe is a star too. If the race were 2400+ she'd be true odds about 1.80. Unfortunately, it ain't, and at 2000m I reckon this is going to be very close, possibly a dead heat.

In fact, ************ it, I'm tipping a dead heat!!!

(I really just wish Grand Armee were in it to lead them, so that Elvis had to run him down, and Makybe run them all down)

No doubt Elvis is a star, i'm not potting him at all i just rate Makybe above him in this event. Niagara Falls will go at a much slicker rate then Casual Pass in the St Goerge, it's the way she races best, she can't sprint with these so she'll try and string them out and get them all off the bit.

At first glance can't split Elvstroem & Makybe Diva. Dead-heat for mine!

Final Field
 

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight

1 ELVSTROEM Tony Vasil N Rawiller 1 58
2 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman D Nikolic 6 58
3 CASUAL PASS Mathew Ellerton N Ryan (a) 3 58
4 LAD OF THE MANOR (NZ) Roger Hoysted B E Johns 7 58
5 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman G Boss 5 55.5
6 WINNING BELLE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse D Oliver 4 55.5
7 NIAGARA FALLS Peter G Moody Steven King 2 55.5

Current fixed odds market
 

No. Selection Win

001 Elvstroem $2.00
005 Makybe Diva $2.35
003 Casual Pass $10.00
006 Winning Belle $10.00
004 Lad of The Manor $15.00
002 Mummify $26.00
007 Niagara Falls $51.00

Lad of The Manor
Casual Pass
Makybe Diva
Elvstroem

(5) Makybe Diva
(1) Elvstroem
(4) Lad Of The Manor
(2) Mummify

Going to have a nibble at Mummify to knock them off.Been a good horse for me,and cant resist the $26,hope to get even better.

1 ELVSTROEM
5 MAKYBE DIVA
3 CASUAL PASS
6 WINNING BELLE

DIVA All day

Makybe Diva
Elvis
Lad Of The Manor
Mummify

A sit and watch race for this one...i might have a few tris and 1st4's ..but i can't split Elvis and the Diva....
Diva seems to have the more improvement but she looks to heavy for me this campaign and might have lost that sprint she has..
I'm sure thats why Boss rode her so quietly last time i guess he thought she'd click into the next gear but she didn't and that worries me..
Elvis proved last campaign that he can just keep on going..
Easier races i think tomorrow..
Good luck Mr Ed and i hope you can do better than 2.30 on offer..

I'll only be having a little on her Mav, Forecast for a hot day worries me with her. Although by that stage will be loaded up after Alinghi crushes Fastnet (hopefully). I took gratification in seeing how heavy she was after the St George, it generally means there is plenty of fitness and improvement left in them, oh well we'll see tomorrow. Hopefully we can all come out winners after 'SUPER SATURDAY'.

No bet race for me, I don't like betting against my top picks, and no real value with the others.

Makybe Diva $3.33 (in a photo!)
Elvstroem $3.33
Winning Belle $8.06
Lad of the Manor $10.74
Casual Pass $10.74

Winning Belle is much improved this prep and rating-wise is not far off the top two. Lad is a big improver i think, his biggest drawback being the no-name on top. I know Casual had no excuses last start, but i still think he has as much improvement in him as Elvis. He was only 1 length off them.

Heard Boss had a real heated enquiry today regarding his last ride on the Diva..apparently there was shouting with boss threatening to hand in his licence ....he got a stern warning so expect him to be if anything over zealous tomorrow..he'll throw everything at the Diva and carry her across the line if he has to..
Hmmmm might just load up on her yet....

Same order as in the ST GEORGE; ELVSTROEM, MAKYBE DIVA and CASUAL PASS.

Also include WINNING BELLE who is racing in the best form of her career.

CASUAL PASS
MAKYBE DIVA
ELVSTROEM
LAD OF THE MANOR

Current fixed odds market
 

No. Horse Win

001 Elvstroem $2.00
005 Makybe Diva $2.35
003 Casual Pass $10.00
006 Winning Belle $10.00
004 Lad of The Manor $15.00
002 Mummify $26.00
007 Niagara Falls $51.00

Makybe Diva
Lad of the Manor
Winning Belle
Elvstroem

Track good, all starting

Lad of the Manor
Elvstroem
Makybe Diva
Casual Pass

Makybe Diva
Elvstroem
Winning Belle
Casual Pass

What A Win
She broke Northerly's track record(1:59.46) by 0.8 secs
I havent heard the official time but they are also saying it could be a world record,dont know where to find that information
Well done GM on boxed first four
Cheers

great run by the Diva...thought Winning Bell was excellent imagine the weight pull in the Cups later this year...

Great collect on the tri but i'm spewing i chickened out on her last minute for the win...
that'll learn me :)

Race result
 

07 AUSTRALIAN CUP
2000 Metres
3:55pm

2ND LEG QUADRELLA

WIN/PLACE
5 2.50 1.50
6...............3.50
4.............N.T.D.

QUINELLA (5-6) 16.50
EXACTA (5-6) 29.00
TRIFECTA
(5-6-4) 214.20
FIRST 4
(5-6-4-1) 302.60

(5) MAKYBE DIVA (G.BOSS)
(6) WINNING BELLE (DAMIEN OLIVER)
(4) LAD OF THE MANOR (B.E.JOHNS)

SCR - NIL
Quadrella Sub = 1

Completely agree comments re Diva & WB mav! As for the spewing bit, please don't remind me :)